Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Shadpearl
Obvious play is to lynch this today and if he flips town we go for profii tomorrow.

Congrats on ignoring everything that's been said...great contribution.

Why is Shad not the preferred lynch due to profii's result? Is there something (other than profii fake claiming) that would absolve Shad of profii's result?

Anyone can feel free to answer the question above.

[havingfitz]

I mean like SK at this point would want mafia dead before they find him/her.

This is a good point.

Not killing Shad would either force mafia to target Shad (or the sk if Shad is mafia). We still have the bandwidth to absorb any worst case outcome from not killing Shad today and if things go poorly tonight we can kill Shad tomorrow.

[texcat]

I mean like SK at this point would want mafia dead before they find him/her.

This is a good point.

Not killing Shad would either force mafia to target Shad (or the sk if Shad is mafia). We still have the bandwidth to absorb any worst case outcome from not killing Shad today and if things go poorly tonight we can kill Shad tomorrow.

Huh????

If SK!Shad lives, he targets whoever he wants. His days are numbered. Mafia targets Profii who is the greater danger to them, thereby exposing Shad for town to deal with.

If mafia!Shad lives, they target whoever they want, probably leaving town still with the question of whether Profii was lying about his guilty. The SK is more likely to go after Profii than Shad.

If town!Shad lives, both mafia and SK do whatever they want. Both still want more town deaths. In particular, the tracker and the remaining doc. At some point we might hope for crosskills, but it's just a hope.

In none of these situations is Shad NKd.

Compare that with lynching Shad today, and being able to use his flip and associations tomorrow to find more scum.

[Sando]

You guys really need to slow down and actually think this through, it's not that tough.

One of Scum and SK do not know if Profii is the tracker, so their NKs need to account for that. If he's the tracker they both want to kill him, if he's lying then the other faction still don't know and want to kill him. If we lynch Shad we basically give info to killers to use overnight, ie they can react to the information before we can.

Scum!Profii = SK thinks he's tracker and wants to kill him. Scum search for the real tracker and kill them, so even if the SK doesn't kill Profii the tracker flip confirms Scum!Profii and non-Scum!Shad (Shad could still be SK). (Probably dead Profii and dead Tracker)

SK!Profii = Well scum know he's either SK or tracker, either are a super high value target, Profii gets shot. Profii has to shoot scum at this point to have any chance of winning, since his only hope is a doc protect keeps him alive for 2 nights and he somehow doesn't get counter-claimed. This situation is extremely unlikely, pretty sure Profii isn't SK, his path to win is gone basically. (Dead Profii maybe dead scum)

Tracker!Profii = One of scum or SK know he's the tracker, so they're going to kill him or scum. If Shad is scum then they'll submit with Shad while they can and may or may not kill the tracker, but they know we're not killing the guilty tomorrow if it gets to it, their best shot is to go for an SK. If Shad is SK, then he's just fucked, he can do whatever he wants. (Dead Profii and random kill)

In all of these, we know the veracity of the guilty claim tomorrow, and it'd get counter-claimed tomorrow anyway.

Ok so what happens if we flip Shad today:

Shad!Town: Profii is scum and SK knows they're tomorrow's lynch, SK kills elsewhere looking for real tracker or scum or the doc. Scum go for the real tracker with Profii submitting the kill (tracker can't find scum), or SK or doc. (Town lynched, two NK shots at town PRs most likely)

Shad!SK: Profii is most likely tracker and gets NKd by scum unless lucky doc. (SK lynched and Tracker dies overnight)

Shad!Scum: Profii is tracker and gets NK'd by probably both scum and SK, basically dead tracker. (Scum lynched and Tracker dies overnight)


By lynching Shad we're giving information to killers to use in the next phase. If we hold off on the lynch of Shad, we lose no information, and we are the ones coming into tomorrow armed with information.

[Sando]

Just something to consider about the possibility that Profii fake-claimed:

When I say scum/sk can hunt for a tracker if Profii is scum, I'm well aware I'm the primary target of that. If I'm the tracker, I'm ok with that, it's just a CC and I die, no biggie, at least we didn't lynch his directed lynch. If I'm not the tracker, suck it, NK-baited boys.

Scum!Profii obviously would be looking at me right now as the tracker, makes the most sense obviously. If they're Creature/LUV partner then they've seen my previous game where I called bullshit on the tracker and as a VT with no knowledge of tracks and explained why they were an idiot and playing tracker wrong, so I have history of doing what I'm doing now as a VT. Doubt in their mind is fantastic, they have incomplete information just like us, don't feed them any more info than you have to.

If I'm not the tracker, or even if I am, cover is provided by people following the plan and not blindly following a tracker claim. As town, you NEED to help town and stop being lazy. Anyone who voted Shad as town, you goofed. Anyone who voted Shad after I pointed out why not and are continuing to pointedly ignore me...you're blatantly anti-town, and at best incredibly lazy. If Profii is scum and the real tracker is me or anyone who hasn't voted Shad, you've just significantly reduced the pool for scum to tracker hunt in. They're 100% convinced it's me at the moment anyway so I'm going to keep this up and be the loud voice, but as townies, you really, really needed to be more careful.

That said, I will say I'm most definitely not a Tracker WITH a guilty. A tracker with a guilty other than Profii should claim.

[Sando]

If SK!Shad lives, he targets whoever he wants. His days are numbered. Mafia targets Profii who is the greater danger to them, thereby exposing Shad for town to deal with.

SK!Shad has one hope, that Profii is actually scum and fake-claimed with a fluke result on the SK. His only way out is to kill Profii and expose that he's scum and get the result nullified.

If mafia!Shad lives, they target whoever they want, probably leaving town still with the question of whether Profii was lying about his guilty. The SK is more likely to go after Profii than Shad.

Mafia!shad submits the kill, they know that's their last safe submit so they need tracker dead, or they can gamble on the SK doing it for them and the Doc not hitting the 1/3 chance. Shad gets lynched tomorrow if Profii is still alive and un-CC'd, I just kept your tracker alive for another night, you're welcome. The idea that scum are happy to ignore the tracker is just ludicrous.

If town!Shad lives, both mafia and SK do whatever they want. Both still want more town deaths. In particular, the tracker and the remaining doc. At some point we might hope for crosskills, but it's just a hope.

What? You're completely ignoring that SK and mafia don't share information, if Profii is scum SK don't know that, if he's SK then scum don't know that. Profii's faction can hunt, but flipping the tracker gets Profii lynched, but the other faction has either a killer or tracker on their hands...and on top of that we haven't mislynched Shad.

[Shadpearl]

Erm, Sando? I feel like you're forgetting 1 thing - the killers and serial killer can all read this thread too, so they could just take pot shots on random townies. It's the easiest way to protect themselves from a lynch tomorrow, especially since Profii is lying so 100% he ain't goin' down tonight. >_>; If you guys think it would help, I'd be happy to self-vote. ^-^

In fact, I think I have a

better

test!

VOTE: Shadpearl

Shadpearl (4) - Taly, profii, texcat, Ausuka

Adding my vote makes 5.

L-1.

Profii is obviously scum ~ So who's the other killer?
Taly has used the same logic of 'mining information' with GoldenPyramid and now me as well. Let's test her, shall we?
Texcat - I honestly don't know. Sorry, haha! I kinda wish Aneninen had more information.
Ausuka obviously didn't expect Profii's tracker claim but hopped on pretty fast. I mean, there was zero hesitance there.

Havingfitz, Sando, Almost50, and LUV! You guys are it! Who wants to play wac-a-mole? ;P

Either way, scum is definitely somewhere in my wagon pool or hammer. Have fun wading, guys! ^-^

[Taly]

I'm starting to feel a little frustrated here. :/ Mostly with myself... I don't feel like I've been working well with likely-town entities in this game.

~~~

But I have read

Sando's

posts and response to my analysis, and I'm seeing his viewpoint. It makes a lot of sense the more I think about it.

It makes no sense for scum and SK to NOT go after claims overnight. If

Shadpearl

is lynched regardless of alignment, that gives an anti-town party leverage to conceal an NK on someone not within the

Shadpearl-profii

tracker-guilty claim pool.

Either way, town would get information based on a flip. But in the scenario of

Shadpearl

being lynched now, scum and/or SK is getting information for an NK target prior to town resolving their reads and the validity of claims.

Plus, if

Shadpearl

is kept alive, we run a higher risk of a crosskill occurring, which ultimately serves town based on numbers.

UNVOTE:

Let's make the scum waffle instead of the townies for once in this game.

Sando

, to clarify; I didn't 100% assume

Shadpearl

was the SK. I entertained other possibilities. I think, based on

profii's

claim, and my own personal observation, SK-

Shadpearl

was, and to a degree still is, the most likely reality to me in regards to his alignment.

I have few doubts about

profii's

claim. Mostly because he's put a death mark on himself regardless of alignment, and his claim is buying him time at best.

Also, can you explain the case on

Ausuka

please? Is it mostly on an associative with

texcat

and/or

havingfitz

?

[Taly]

Ugh....

I. Hate. Self. Votes.

[Sando]

Take the vote off now, and anyone hammering should be policy lynched immediately.

[Sando]

^That was for Shadpearl

[Sando]

Erm, Sando? I feel like you're forgetting 1 thing - the killers and serial killer can all read this thread too, so they could just take pot shots on random townies. It's the easiest way to protect themselves from a lynch tomorrow, especially since Profii is lying so 100% he ain't goin' down tonight. >_>; If you guys think it would help, I'd be happy to self-vote. ^-^

Ok, lets keep this simple, cause if you're actually scum or SK you don't need this explained. So lets assume for this post that you're town.

Assumptions for this post only: Shad is VT, Profii is scum - done for ease of explanation.

Profii is therefore lying and 95% likely to be scum, we'll assume scum for ease of argument, this works both ways. The SK is "out there", we don't know who it is.

Scum know you're not scum, and they've no reason to think you're SK beyond what is open to everyone, ie they don't actually think you're SK most likely. The SK actually has no idea whether you're town or whether Profii is tracker, so they need to deal with that somehow.

If you get lynched and flip town, there's a big green neon sign saying "Lynch Profii tomorrow", and the SK can go on his way and kill whoever he wants. If you stay alive, SK now has no more info than any VT as to whether Profii is actually the tracker or not, so why not shoot Profii to check? Worst case scenario the SK hits scum instead of tracker, which is also good for SK.

Lynching you and giving your flip information to the SK is BAD if you're town and ensures that the SK does NOT kill Profii.

[Shadpearl]

Yes, I understand but I think you misunderstood what I was trying to say. The killers are the ones with the most wiggle room at the moment. They can read all of your grand plans, right there -and they can counter it simply by targeting a random Townie. Let's look at the options:

A) Lynch Shad -

Profii is definitely scum and gets lynched D4. D5 is then do or die,

but you might get lucky!

B) Lynch Profii -

Well, a scum dies a day early and I take the Night Kill on the chin, but I just don't see this happening. Sorry I'm not a good enough player. <:)

C) Lynch Someone Else -

Now, here is where it gets interesting. Someone else dies. Most likely Town, going by sheer statistics and the fact that no one else has a solid wagon. Then what happens that night? As scum, do you kill the VT? Heck no. Especially since I'd be lynch bait tomorrow and, guess what? They just successfully made the town waste not 1, but

2

days! Woo! Scum win! That means they'd go after yet another Townie (or possibly the SK but I feel like Mafia would want to take down the weaklings first) and leave me. Now we're on Day 4. Profii and his buddy are still alive, but I'd be the next up for lynch instead of the actual ones we need dead. This is unacceptable to me. Profii made a great play though and I'm delighted to go down with so much fanfare. It feels so exciting! (And comical, but mostly exciting!)

Sorry you hate self-votes, Taly, lol, but this feels like the best option. By Lynching someone else we just end up in the same place tomorrow. Give me logic to see a better option and I'll take it, but we'll just end up 'waffling' and wasting time tomorrow otherwise.


.... Thinking about it, this layout goes both ways doesn't it? Kinda like the 'Lovers' mechanic? x) You could just as easily switch out those names for

A)

and

B)

and get about the same result. Look:

Lynch Profii -

Shad is definitely scum and gets lynched D4. D5 is then do or die, but you might get lucky!

Lynch Shad -

Well, a scum dies a day early and I take the Night Kill on the chin, but I just don't see this happening. Sorry I'm not a good enough player. <:)

[Sando]

Sorry you hate self-votes, Taly, lol, but this feels like the best option. By Lynching someone else we just end up in the same place tomorrow. Give me logic to see a better option and I'll take it, but we'll just end up 'waffling' and wasting time tomorrow otherwise.

Because if you're town we either:

Lynch Town D3 (Shad) - Scum D4 (Profii) - Guess D5
Lynch Guess D3 (Tex for example) - Scum D4 (Profii or Shad) - Guess D5

How on earth is lynching you as town better than guessing? One is 100% and one is a guess! Sorry, well educated scumhunted target.

We will have an outcome on Profii or Shad tomorrow, OR...our tracker got another night to track, OR BOTH! Either Profii dies and we lynch Shad based on info from that, or another tracker dies and we lynch Profii, either of those resolve it. If neither happens, you know what we have, another track result!

[Ausuka]

No, I don't think you guys get it. Shadpearl has to be scum. There is no tracker CC.

[profii]

If I’m fibbing the anti town factions know this
Sando - Why does “the other faction” play Rock Paper Scissors with me and the doctor (if the doc believes my claim and protects me) as opposed to letting fibbing!me plus “the other faction” make 2 night kills reducing town numbers

IF I am fibbing, then the last thing I want is to kill someone who is likely the real Tracker so I’d aim at someone who Is highly unlikely to be tracker even if I hit scum or SK I still have a guilty and nothing’s clear so fibber!me can cause confusion tomorrow

I want shadpearl dead, conf town status and protection

I appreciate you all have to question the claim but if I was lying I would go out of my way to try and mess with you tonight to go through this debate tomorrow by targeting a random likely VT, I’m not sure how not clearing this up isn’t a risk of dragging this on

[profii]

No, I don't think you guys get it. Shadpearl has to be scum. There is no tracker CC.

In fairness

Let’s assume you are the tracker and I’m lying

If you cc’d - great there is a doctor but success is based on Rock Paper Scissors due to the elements

So you cc’ing means - the lynch is likely you or me, that risks the “real tracker” dying
Plus even if you do turn the lynch to me, you’d have 2 night factions looking at you.
A cc is very risky
You would know I was lying so there is a minute chance Shad flips scum/SK - therefore as real tracker you know you don’t need to claim because you would be lynching me with absolute confidence tomorrow

So I can see why people think no cc doesn’t mean I’m telling the truth in this game, which is why I want to clarify it

[profii]

... clarify it by killing Shad and conf’ing me

[Ausuka]

Tracker dying is very negligible and it doesn't really matter. Compared to a scum dying and preventing a mislynch, CCing is always the correct play for the tracker. Like I don't think I've ever seen a game where people argue a PR shouldn't CC a fakeclaim, especially one like a Tracker.

[profii]

The obvious counter thought to that is the doctor can’t protect me so why out yourself as a tracker....

Well if I am lying as Sando said, the other anti town faction has no idea, however what I would surmise is if I’m doing this as VT to “just survive” and stitch up Shadpearl then as a VT I am a very mean player - therefore, I’m either the real tracker or part of the opposite anti town faction to the various scums out there

It’s likely I get NKd I think as with 1 element protection and probable 2 elemental kills coming at me I will die so - let’s go for Shad, if he does flip SK, that’s 1 elemental kill coming my way, higher chance of doc protect actually working and a tracker action for tomorrow

[Ausuka]

The obvious counter thought to that is the doctor can’t protect me so why out yourself as a tracker....

To lynch scum, instead of mislynching??????

[Sando]

No, I don't think you guys get it. Shadpearl has to be scum. There is no tracker CC.

Just...wow...

[Ausuka]

If the tracker thinks they're more important than a correct lynch, which they are most certainly not, that's on them. I'm not ever moving my vote unless a CC happens.

[Sando]

Sando - Why does “the other faction” play Rock Paper Scissors with me and the doctor (if the doc believes my claim and protects me) as opposed to letting fibbing!me plus “the other faction” make 2 night kills reducing town numbers

Assume you're scum and SK is the other faction.

SK knows you're either tracker or scum, if you're scum they should kill whoever they think is the real tracker. If you're the tracker they should kill you or they can hope the scum kill you, but they know scum might be thinking the same thing. But tracker gets better as the game goes on, he's practically useless early game and now with so few powers alive he can start to trust his tracks, so the SK really needs the Tracker gone.

SK kills tracker (you or the real one if you're scum) and Scum kills VT, this is WORST case, and it confirms that either you're scum or you're tracker.

Pro-tip, we didn't mislynch to get there if Shad is town, same amount of town dead in worst case, but best case is significantly better than that.

[Sando]

If the tracker thinks they're more important than a correct lynch, which they are most certainly not, that's on them. I'm not ever moving my vote unless a CC happens.

It's not about importance, it's about playing the hand that's dealt us in the best manner possible. I've literally laid out the entire plan and basically directed the SK kill, along with laid out what scum is likely to do. You're playing an open hand and you're refusing to engage. You're either incredibly lazy and shouldn't be playing, or you're scum/SK looking at the plan and worried about it.

VOTE: Ausuka

Same reasons as laid out with Texcat/Ausuka, but playing against town her without justification deserves the flip imo.