Mini Normal 2002: The Thaw OVERRRRRRRRR

[Hoopla]

/in before this Day is still going 20 pages later.

For real, this is why I find mafia so hard to play these days. We have a clear lynch choice. Don't tell me we're not going to lynch Flavor Leaf at some point in the game, it might as well be now. What point is there bloating the thread any more? Erika seems sensible enough to not be faffing around with a pointless vanity wagon -- Prism is new to the game, but his vote seems pointless too. And to CultofAthena, Cheetory, lets be honest, we all know that in order for Magna to be lynched D1 he would literally have to slip and land on his keyboard, accidentally screenshot his scum role PM, get up from slipping, try to recover, slip again and accidentally upload that screenshot to imgur, get up again, dazed, slip once more and land on his keyboard in the precise manner that posts the screenshot in this thread... and even then he might be able to talk his way out of it. Your votes are pointless and a waste of time.

I guess implosion or me are viable counterwagons, either way, it's time for people to start voting people who are actually viable lynches.

[Cheetory6]

VOTE: Flavor
L-1 weeeeeeeeeeee

@Flavor

, can we get a final readlist? Preferably with reasons please and ty.

Your votes are pointless and a waste of time.

Ftr I feel like if I was really confident and enough of a dick about it [and this was a year ago when I still had the energy for tryharding in mafia], I could probably get MOI lynched on D1?
Doesn't mean it would necessarily be a good idea, but I don't really think he's unlynchable?

What point is there bloating the thread any more?

I guess it depends on how much you care about winning?
I hope you're going to put more effort into trying to parse people tomorrow. >.>

I'm also not really a big fan of your CoA read-they've asked questions and given passable reads, but from what I see they haven't followed up on the questions and engaged with them further. This is the definition of surface-level activity for me; there's no clear cognition going on afterwards.

Do you feel like people should be convinced to vote for CoA with this?
At the very least you should be pulling examples and pointing to specific posts that you think are bad from them.

[Cheetory6]

I can tell this is not a Geriatric game. Grey if you hadn’t been signed up for this I never would have joined.

I think you might be overstating how bad this game is?
Like, unless you've been super spoiled by geriatic games. Overall this is pretty straightforward/lean in terms of current site standards?
[And I know you can handle worse climates than this given how often you've played large themes, so this seems a little out of place tbh]

So that got me thinking about the players who have been hard Town reading Saud. I’m not including Flavor because … its Boon his reads flip around like a flag in the breeze. I mean Implosion and Erika.

You'd better hope Flavor doesn't get lynched and flip scum because if that happens and I'm alive tomorrow, you're getting roasted super hard for this

1. He’s more antagonistic against those voting him than scum should be? Um, no that purely a function of personality than alignment – some people are always going to be more aggressive against attackers while some are going to be downright passive.

I think in general, scum are less likely to be antagonistic in a non-productive way though?
Sure, there are like.. 4-5 scumplayers who can be abrasive and shit to people, but it's not exactly the standard.
I think it's reasonable for implosion to read this as town [and I think it's something he could read as town as town?]

Of the three of us only one (Gamma) bothered to even respond. This led to Gamma and Saud’s lovely back and forth starting at 296. Hoopla and I didn’t bother and Saud never said two peeps about it despite the fact that he’s made it clear more than once he thinks scum jumped on him. And he never voted either any of the three of us after this - just basically vote parks Flavor. My takeaway is that he’s being very wishy-washy against those on his wagon … blowing a bunch of hot air with no followup beyond a name-calling session with Gamma.

I could easily see myself getting distracted from productive questioning by a fight as town. I think it's generally kind of normal for that kind of stuff to happen?

Implosion is implicitly saying he’s Town in his posts. Next he’s voting me at this stage so he is presenting that he thinks I am scum. Yet he’s giving Saud Town points for being hesitant to vote me. Why in god’s green earth would Saud get Town points for being hesitant to vote a person he thinks is quite possibly scum who jumped on his wagon? Does that make sense? If anything I’d expect Town Implosion who thinks I am scum to wonder why Saud didn’t jump on the wagon not give him Town points.

This point requires implosion to think that a scumSaudade playing this way would be hesitant to join a wagon for fear of looking bad. Also requires him to think that all town players are going to play the same way he is.

I'm kind of struggling to understand why you think this would be white-knighting for the purpose of pocketing Saudade, rather than white-knighting for the purposes of generating content? Do you think implosion would look at Saudade and think "hey this is who I should want to be pocketing here right now!" because I can't really imagine that happening and I don't really understand why you think he would think that would be valuable. [Or at least I just don't really think the reasons you're putting forward are realistic]

stinks of scum who thought they had a nice ego inflating sure thing mislynch-wagon on me and saw the change in the wind and thought "Oh shit ... need to abort this ASAP".

Can you point me to where the wagon on you was discredited to a degree that would make Erika this self-conscious about their push on you?

In other news, Implosion reads pretty town in the ISOdive.
His response to MOI's case on him is:

[Hoopla]

Ftr I feel like if I was really confident and enough of a dick about it [and this was a year ago when I still had the energy for tryharding in mafia], I could probably get MOI lynched on D1?
Doesn't mean it would necessarily be a good idea, but I don't really think he's unlynchable?

I like the cut of your jib. It's good to be optimistic

I guess it depends on how much you care about winning?
I hope you're going to put more effort into trying to parse people tomorrow. >.>

I care a lot about winning, that's why on D1 I tend to designate myself as the Head of Content Curation and the Voice of Reason in the face of purposeless threadbloating, valiantly trying to ensure a nice balance of voices are heard and that people are forwarding the game with their votes. Some might call me brave or heroic, but I don't like to think of myself that way -- I'm just a regular scummer like you guys, trying to make a difference.

Haven't done the stats for a while, but more than 30% of Mini Normals used to end up with a lynch on an unclaimed player on D1, usually through town laziness and complacency. They often have a clear lynch, don't do anything with it until 24 hours from deadline and then suddenly if they get cold feet either from a claim, or they simply want to change to someone else, it ends in chaos.

I was actually having a quick look today if things had changed in recent times -- nope. 6 of the last 10 mini normals ended D1 by lynching an unclaimed player, and even one case of lynching nobody (lol).

Imo, a succinct D1 makes future lynches more accurate, as nobody ends up analysing D1 properly when it's 1000 posts long, so even if a quicker lynch might be less accurate (and I don't think it is), I think we gain a lot more on future days, to the point that I feel like focusing on this D1 is the best way I can play to my wincondition as opposed to eking out a (maybe) 5% more accurate lynch today at the expense of making D1 unreadable not only for us, but for future potential replacements too.

[Cheetory6]

I guess to some degree I tend to like to think that enough time poking/prodding people will make it more obvious who town/scum is in the long run.

But I'm also kind of aware that dragging my heels on D1 in the past has made the game generally more unfun/I tend to get kind of muddled by end of D1 so I'm willing to go with an earlier lynch.

It's just that if we go this route, I kind of want a guarantee that if you're town here, you're going to start dropping some hardcore Hoopla scumhunting tomorrow. [Because it does honestly make you and Flavor a lot harder to read when you're not really participating in the scumhunt, if that makes sense?]

Grey I really need to you get in here and give me some insight because I am going nuts watching this. I don't think Saud and Implosion / Erika are all partners. But I am having a hard as hell time deciding which side is more scummy.

Can you walk me through the reasoning you thought/potentially still think Saudade is scummy based on their performance in Cheesecake? Specifics preferred. Or point me to where someone already articulated it because tbh I can't recall anyone going into any kind of detail on why they're scum based on meta.

[Cheetory6]

I think this is where I'm at atm?
My scumreads feel so consensus right now :').

Gamma
============
implosion, COA
============
GI
============
Erika, Stefan, Hoopla, Saudade, Hiraki
============
Prism
============
MOI, Flavor

@UCV

can you update the OP playerlist please?

[Hoopla]

It's impossible to understand flavor's play without some knowledge of his meta. He does things in a very intentionally arbitrary way and makes a point to be inconsistent in certain regards.

His scum motivation here, if he's scum, is simply to try to emulate his meta. He's screwing around with the claim-backtrack-differentclaim shenanigans to try to get people to think in the back of their heads that this isn't something he'd do as scum, even though his sig is very explicit that he'll do pretty much anything as scum.

In a sense, his existence in a game is -EV for town in the same way that creature's is +EV for town.

I missed this post until Prism quoted it, but I found this to be a very eloquent exposition of Flavor Leaf and to me, it helps show why he'd be a fine utility lynch.

[Erika Furudo]

@MOD replace me the lack of motivation for me to even try this is and everytime I look at the game it reminds me on why I hate the normal queue

Here are my thoughts before I go
Prism is definitely not new and is a wolf.
MoI is also a wolf.
I can literally soulread Implosion, he is town.
Hiraki is sadly, also a wolf.
Flavor Leaf is town.
So is CoA (and probably the best reads currently?)
And Cheetory
And Saudade
And Gamma

GreyICE is town but could be a wolf

And then Stefan and Hoopla are like my only null reads

If MoI is alive the before day LyLo please lynch him, thank you.

Just noticed this. Will start searching ASAP.

[Hoopla]

It's just that if we go this route, I kind of want a guarantee that if you're town here, you're going to start dropping some hardcore Hoopla scumhunting tomorrow. [Because it does honestly make you and Flavor a lot harder to read when you're not really participating in the scumhunt, if that makes sense?]

In a way, I'm thankful that most players earnestly believe they're much more accurate than random on D1, because their stances today will make for clearer associations in the future, so I get this makes it harder to read me. I honestly just can't say with much conviction that I genuinely believe someone is scum D1 (except for rare times) and am usually OK lynching half the playerlist, and tend to tiebreak it by deciding who has the most/lease value for future days including factors like; scumhunting ability if town, NK candidate if town (meaning I sometimes don't have to figure out their alignment as mafia take care of it for me), how easy they are to read on later days etc. They seem like more meaningful factors to base a D1 lynch on to me.

I tend to open up the more confirmed information comes into the game, and I'm pretty good at townhunting and PoE when the game gets small enough. Having said that, I usually have more reads by now, even if they're just a couple of solid townreads, but I am pretty out of the loop meta-wise atm. Sooo.... lets just kill Flavor Leaf and see what happens.

[Hoopla]

@MOD replace me the lack of motivation for me to even try this is and everytime I look at the game it reminds me on why I hate the normal queue

I thought you were doing good. You're just about to miss us drag Flavor Leaf into the town square and hang him in all his glory. Just think what a fine bonding opportunity this will be for the town.

[GreyICE]

Since when does MOI post on weekends? This game is insane.

Unvote

I'm starting to think Flavor Leaf is just... look, the mods already have it out for me, just insert whatever you want here okay? If god is good, we have a vig, and they nail Flavor Leaf between the eyes, then we don't have to worry about this anymore. Vigs are probably in at least 30% of mini normals, I've got to hope they shoot flavor leaf of all people.

Erika clearly joined to play with the old guard. If Erika was scum, I don't see them replacing out because we clearly had no idea what was going on. That means town, or their scumteam is like Saudade/Flavor Leaf and they're just tired of their QT existing. At which point, well, who cares, that scumteam will die anyway.

@Hoopla: just zone out a little if you want to. You're chatting a bit too much theory and a bit too little content, but that's you day 1. You get a free pass to day 2, but you know that comes with a "your neck is on the chopping block very quickly if you don't produce" in the rider clause. Oh and I have lynched MOI day 1. But I wanted him dead, Vi replaced in at the same time as me and rode his ass like a rodeo clown, MOI had replaced into a slot for a newbie who wasn't very good, every scumbag joined in the lynch, and it still took more effort than I really can possibly say. Oh and I blew so much town cred that I still got votes day 2 despite him flipping Mafia Traitor. The chances of that happening here are subzero, and it's a stupid vanity wagon.

@MOI:

I stare at Implosion's posts. I read them. I repeat. I... don't see it. I'm not saying he's not capable of faking this, he's not a bad player, but I can think of probably half a dozen players I'd vote before him. Your logic appears to be that he's buddying Saudade so this is scummy because he thinks Saudade is town. Uh... what? First, if Saudade is town I foresee a future where he doesn't get shot by scum for a long, long time so I certainly think it would behoove townies town reading him to learn to work with him. Second, that logic is flimsy. Third, there's better votes. This one is good:

Vote: StephanB

Hohum.

[GreyICE]

Spoiler: Also for Hoopla, my record

All mini normals where I was town, in the game from the start:
Mini 1105: Scum lynch day 1
Mini 1117: Town lynch day 1
Mini 1122: Town lynch day 1
Mini 1126: Town lynch day 1
Mini 1156: Scum lynch day 1 (bonus, scum forced to claim day 1 vigged N1)
Mini 1175: scum lynch day 1
Mini 1444: town lynch day 1
Mini 1540: scum lynch day 1
Mini 1839: town lynch day 1

That appears to me to be a 5:4 ratio. Now that's slightly more town than scum, to be sure, but I'm sure as fuck confident I can beat random chance.

[Hiraki]

If I vote Flavor and he flips town, will you guys promise to come with me to scumland in Implosion?

[Cheetory6]

Cool idea you could try to convince people using words

[Hiraki]

I could, that wasn't the point though!

[StefanB]

Hm, Hiraki again on day 1? Has that promise ever worked for you?

UNVOTE: Implosion
I seemed to have missed somethink, I am not ignoring so many townreads telling me this is a bad lynch.

I should probably sheep a townread. (Not Grey, btw)

Grey: You have pushing the waggon for Flavor all the way to L-1, why stopping now?

What do you mean with Hohum at the end of the post?
If you say I am better dead, regardless of aligment (Hohum was the vig, who was lynched because he played like an SK) thanks, mostly not true.

Hoopla:

Haven't done the stats for a while, but more than 30% of Mini Normals used to end up with a lynch on an unclaimed player on D1, usually through town laziness and complacency.

Really checking my games, I have seen in all, one self-hammer (as town) and 1 quickhammer, I have never been in a situation where we had to lynch an unclaimed (but okay having won a game as scum, where town let lylo end in a no-lynch nothing is completly imposible) so I am a bit skeptical of the 30%.

And no-one is unlynchable. I have seen MoI vig-shot on day 1 when he was scum before. So if he is scum we can get him.

Another post from Hoopla that is interesting.

People have promised that Flavor gets better, when the game goes on. That he is more readable and actually an asset for town.
Hoopla, Implosion are you saying this is not true, and that he is just a bad player all around?

[implosion]

I agree with Hooplarian2.

[GreyICE]

Oh god are we referencing that ridiculous game I wasn't even in? Hah, no, sorry, has nothing to do with that. I think you'd be an asset to any town you were a part of. Which is part of the problem here. Unfortunately random.org is a harsh mistress, and doesn't alwaye hand out town role pms.

[Flavor Leaf]

Honestly, I’m not keeping up with this game well. I don’t really have any solidified reads.

I agree with the vig shot on me. (I’ve only been vigged once, and i was scum.) this would be a first.

I believe I am VT, so it wouldn’t be killing a PR and it would get the WIFOM off of me if people think I’m scum.

I’ll double check to make sure that’s my role, because I really don’t remember.

[Flavor Leaf]

If I’m alive, I’ll eventually get invested in this game, but nothing in this Day 1 has gotten me there. I’m not a fan of Day 1’s, though. I make grand entrances in Day 2’s/3’s often.

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, I’m VT

[StefanB]

Flavor: So you promise that if town, you will eventually get in that game, and be of help?
Can someone tell me if that is true.
Nevertheless the promise is the only think, you can give us?
I know we should look on your waggon.
But if you play to scummy, sometimes scum will be away from your waggon...

About Ericas read: Interesting that Hoopla moved from scum to null in her posts.
Grey has also moved up I think, from null to slight townread
The rest is pretty consistand between the lists. (and that isn't helpful)

Not working at the moment I try tomorrow.

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, I can link you some town games of mine where my late game got into deep analysis. I’m pretty strong town late game for the most part.

I disagree that I’m being scummy, though. I’m just not playing the game, which is NAI at best, and scum are taking advantage of that somewhere.

I claim stuff like I did in the beginning of games all the time.

[Flavor Leaf]

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=72770

Here’s one where I was extremely inactive (it was a super fast game) and I came in around Day 4 and had some good reads and became obv town. I got night killed the same night.

I’ll give you more when I have More time to search.

[Flavor Leaf]

The funny thing about Erika’s replace out, though, is this game doesn’t even have normal queue regular players, and the ones of us that are aren’t posting much.