Mini Normal 2002: The Thaw OVERRRRRRRRR

[Flavor Leaf]

I think it’s just me, Gamma, and Why, and I didn’t even know Why was in this game.

[Prism]

Prism is new to the game, but his vote seems pointless too.

My vote doesn't have to be likely to create a lynch. It was made primarily to get more out of CoA with a secondary goal of getting people to question their townread on their own time.

In the absence of any real scumreads right now, I'm voting for Cult. I'll switch when I feel like it. I'm in no rush to hammer anything considering I've just now gotten into the game and still have a lot to do (Ex. Have yet to dig into the MoI/Imp convo, or MoI really in general. ISOing you would be good. Skimming a scumgame of Flavor's would be ideal and that should probably take priority)

Do you feel like people should be convinced to vote for CoA with this?
At the very least you should be pulling examples and pointing to specific posts that you think are bad from them.

This is weirdly aggressive, it's obviously ideal but you knew it was a broad commentary on a player with a pretty short ISO. There's this expectation, more like a demand, that were

I town I would have done it right then

, when I clearly had just tackled the game in one sitting and was addressing multiple people and multiple angles, not just been ready to upon request. This doesn't really addup in your own play, which has only sparsely cited posts when not prompted to. We want to keep people accountable for their reads but the tone here seems less curious and more accusatory. The reason this bothers me is you've had no stated other issue with my play, and I feel like if you're town there has to be others. The only thing I can think of is if you assumed the CoA vote

was

meant to attract others to the vote, and that really wasn't my expectation.

After doing it I made two mistakes in my original glancethrough 1) Stefan never responded to her giving nothing to engage with 2) She did respond to Erika once when I thought she hadn't.

She had a brief engage with you on Gamma. She disagreed with your characterization of the meta and we hear no more on this front. Understandable. (#123 and #126)
Later she asks Gamma about his Saudade read. 0 followup. Gamma later just appears as a scumread with 0 explanation, implicitly there's something she doesn't like but this is remarkably unexplained. (#185)
The Erika response in the end wasn't anything, it was just "I can't understand, can you explain again?" (#247).

I still just see very little cognition happening here to justify these townreads on her without some kind of tonal meta. There's some hint that it's happening here with Gamma, but I want to see her trace through the process and actually engage on this front. The only real post to me has been #256 with the scumreads all being on the wagon.

ANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNND AFTER READING 256 FOR THE FOURTH TIME IT'S "GL" NOT "GE" AND IT'S MORE LIKELY SHE MEANT FL THERE INSTEAD AND EVERYTHING I JUST SAID ABOUT GAMMA IS NULL AND VOID

I SPENT TOO MUCH TIME ON THIS/WHAT I FELT WAS WRONG WITH CHEET ALREADY I'M OUT

[Prism]

I'm just straight up wrong and biased and need to move to something else.

Getting food and then I'll dust myself off and try and tackle reading MoI/Imp. Might as well buy some french fries to go with all of my salt.

[StefanB]

I think it’s just me, Gamma, and Why, and I didn’t even know Why was in this game.

Why was replaced

@mod Can you please update the playerlist with the replacements, makes it easier for later replacements.

[UC Voyager]

give me a sec.

[Cheetory6]

This is weirdly aggressive, it's obviously ideal but you knew it was a broad commentary on a player with a pretty short ISO. There's this expectation, more like a demand, that were I town I would have done it right then, when I clearly had just tackled the game in one sitting and was addressing multiple people and multiple angles, not just been ready to upon request. This doesn't really addup in your own play, which has only sparsely cited posts when not prompted to.

We want to keep people accountable for their reads but the tone here seems less curious and more accusatory

. The reason this bothers me is you've had no stated other issue with my play, and I feel like if you're town there has to be others. The only thing I can think of is if you assumed the CoA vote was meant to attract others to the vote, and that really wasn't my expectation.

It was more meant to be a line of inquiry and a push/challenge. I don't expect every vote from someone to have amazing reasoning with cited posts, but if you're going to be voting for someone who has no votes on them when people are getting close to lynching I would expect either:
i) You asking for more time to catch up.
ii) You trying to convince people if you think you're onto something.

Instead it just kind of seems like a vote for the sake of a vote and a general avoidance of the main conversation, and it's pretty easy to coast by on that. You're saying that it was meant to overly be a placeholder vote and that would sit better with me if there was any sense of urgency to your play given the size of the wagons and the general inclination moving towards getting a lynch right now.

Wrt the bolded, if I think someone is more likely to be scum, I'm going to be more accusatory in my questions/pushes on them.

Looking forward to a catch-up on MoI/implosion from you.

[Hiraki]

Hm, Hiraki again on day 1? Has that promise ever worked for you?

Uhh, okay? Don't reference ongoing games?

Oh god are we referencing that ridiculous game I wasn't even in? Hah, no, sorry, has nothing to do with that. I think you'd be an asset to any town you were a part of. Which is part of the problem here. Unfortunately random.org is a harsh mistress, and doesn't alwaye hand out town role pms.

Yeah, I had no clue what Stefan was talking about.

The funny thing about Erika’s replace out, though, is this game doesn’t even have normal queue regular players, and the ones of us that are aren’t posting much.

I agree heavily here. I think this game has a very big "stigma" problem which I never knew existed either way. If you continue to say people aren't posting, you're probably one of the people not posting. There is a wealth of content in this game that I need to analyze - not the opposite.

Will get into Implosion tonight.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So much to parse and not a ton of time tonight I’ll get through what I can –

False. My vote on you was mostly a placeholder/blindly wagoning. I don't have a good read on you yet. I was vaguely hoping to see how you'd react directly to my vote on you, but then you disappeared for that day and I got tired of waiting. And now you're making a hell of a lot of assumptions about my vote; you're assuming that it was because of an explicit scumread on you, you're assuming that I wanted the wagon to keep growing, and you're assuming that I should be exonerating every vote on the wagon just because I was on it? That is such an un-nuanced way of looking at things.

Well here’s a doozy I want to dig into … so your vote was a reaction test that failed miserably and now you are upset I’m making assumptions? Well Mafia is a game of assumtions. You’re making them all over the place about Saud (which I’ve pointed out) and are comfortable with them. If you don’t provide reasons with your vote at the point we are in the game I’m going to make what I feel are reasonable assumptions – that you moved away from the person you claim to be scum-reading to vote me therefore I must be at least as much of a scum read as Flavor to you.

Because I think you should know me at least well enough to know I’m not going to bother poking you about blind vote regardless of my alignment. I’ll take note of it. But that’s an absolute waste of a tactic if you happen to be Town.

So you were happy to place a bandwagon vote / completely useless reaction test on an effective Null read simply because it looked like my wagon was picking up momentum as opposed to keeping a vote on your claimed scum suspect in Flavor? Because that’s my takeaway.

is really one-dimensional. Sure, I might not give saud-scum townpoints for avoiding jumping on a wagon on you if I'm completely sold that you're scum... but even if I have a scumread on you, I'm not going to assume that you're scum when I evaluate Saudade's actions. my day one reads are crap like half the time. I don't see why you think I should be looking at Saudade's actions through the lens of my read on you. It could function as evidence that you're scum together but d1 associatives are crap.

Umm whut? You are giving him a solid Town read on his refusal to jump on a bandwagon on me. And are not to going to assume my alignment in doing so? How in the heck do you given him Town credit at all when you aren’t assuming that I’m scum in your analysis? That boggles my mind that you are trying to give him solid Town motivation in not voting me – one of his supposed scum suspect on his wagon – when you aren’t considering my alignment at all in that analysis.

The problem is that I'm pretty sure this isn't a tell for MoI and I have no idea how to actually read him, and the push even feels vaguely reminiscent of the last game I played with MoI where we were both town and suspected each other. Which is why I can understand why erika wants to just lynch him the day before lylo if he's still alive.

And why I don't really understand why he's critical of erika for claiming inability to read him.

I just don't know how to interpret any of this with regards to his alignment

Yeah the bolded is a misrep. Erika’s move was scummy not because she can’t “read me” … it is scummy because she’s spent all of today calling for my head (and even in her departing post still called me scum) yet bailed on pushing that read to say “Nah, just going to lynch him before LYLO”. It shows survivalism in that devoting any more energy to it can potentially backfire large him her (or more precisely her successors face since she bailed) and perhaps even get her lynched. Town doesn’t lose any more credibility if they go down swinging going after a solid scum read.

[Hoopla]

That appears to me to be a 5:4 ratio. Now that's slightly more town than scum, to be sure, but I'm sure as fuck confident I can beat random chance.

Too small a sample size and not statistically significant, especially when you consider you weren't in the game on D1 for the 1105 scumlynch, so you don't get to count that. If you do, there are other games you replaced out of/into that resulted in a D1 town lynch. You also missed 1843 where you were lynched D1 as town, and your top two scumreads were town, so that should be included.

So, I have it as a 6:3 ratio. If you played 9 games and lynched randomly D1, you'd have a ~38% chance of hitting 3+ scum. Who knows, maybe you're just mildly lucky?

Ftr, I think you

are

better than random and one of the more accurate players on the site and worth sheeping sometimes -- but the amount you're better than random on D1 is negligible.

~~

Anyhow, if we're now not lynching Flavor (?) I'll check in later once the new wave of wagons have matured.

[Hiraki]

It's almost like MoI is assuming that everyone else in the game if they are town is communicating the exact state of their thought process in this game perfectly. And that's just not true of town in general.

Which then continues on into:

The problem is that I'm pretty sure this isn't a tell for MoI and I have no idea how to actually read him, and the push even feels vaguely reminiscent of the last game I played with MoI where we were both town and suspected each other.

AND

And why I don't really understand why he's critical of erika for claiming inability to read him. I just don't know how to interpret any of this with regards to his alignment.

Which from an honesty perspective, I respect this. However, it doesn't ping me the right way. Mostly due to other reasons:

thought i answered this yesterday for some reason.

I'm bored with the day and still think he's scum and never really had the best reasons for unvoting him.

You're willing to go on a full on tangent with MoI to understand his thinking but won't entertain the thought of Flavor Town being town? This post in particular is weird. This is the first quote and then the rest of it is dedicated with a full on dialogue with MoI. Again - there's nothing wrong with that but I don't get how it's fruitful. In writing this, I don't know if it's inherently scummy but it is definitely intrinsically scummy just based off the fact that you're going to throw around walls that at the end of the day may not matter while voting someone off of boredom.

i really just don't know what to think about boon. but he's definitely not out of his scumrange. Literally every piece of self meta he gives is 100% worthless. And I normally actually value selfmeta.

Sprinkle this on and I'm feeling good about something being in this slot.

[Hiraki]

Keep in mind that none of the above actually goes into Implosion/MoI arguments. I tried reading them and got very tired very quickly. I think the above is enough for right now. If not, I can see what's going on there.

[MagnaofIllusion]

In what way? Is this some RaidantCowbells-style "You wouldn't be able to catch me from these posts if I were scum"? Please, explain instead of just calling my read terrible. It doesn't seem unreasonable to me at all to look at what I quoted just above and see scum there.

I’m calling it terrible because from my point of view it is. You seem to be saying that Hoopla’s posts have scum motivation because she’s basically looking to policy lynch on two players. And that is a dog that doesn’t hunt. If Hoopla is scum she’s got partners who are going to help her push whatever agenda she has. She’s not going to waste what could be a more productive mislynch (there are multiple better mislynch Day 1 targets in the game and enough that they can’t all be her partners) on pushing effective policy lynches. So I’m saying your analysis to borrow someone else’s phrase surface level.

I don’t even care if you want to believe me now or not. But my eventual flip (and it is coming sooner rather than later – the number of games I live past Day 2 in a Mini as Town are probably less than 10) will show you this is an honest perspective that I want you to take into account down the line if you are Town.

--

I think you might be overstating how bad this game is?
Like, unless you've been super spoiled by geriatic games. Overall this is pretty straightforward/lean in terms of current site standards?
[And I know you can handle worse climates than this given how often you've played large themes, so this seems a little out of place tbh]

You do understand that the current site meta is the reason that I pretty much only play under the Geriatric rule-set, correct? Because while this game may be lean there is still enough posting that keeping up with the limited computer time I have to devote to it is somewhat of a challenge. And I feel handcuffed in phone posting.

I think it's reasonable for implosion to read this as town [and I think it's something he could read as town as town?]

Yeah I think Implosion’s analysis is junk – so yeah we aren’t seeing eye to eye.

I could easily see myself getting distracted from productive questioning by a fight as town. I think it's generally kind of normal for that kind of stuff to happen?

I’d ask you to look at Saud’s ISO and tell me where you see the scum-hunting. I don’t see any. I see a ton of active lurking. Who are his scum reads besides Flavor? Who knows. Frankly I think you've decided I'm scum and just are making arguments predicated on that position at this stage. Because Saud isn't getting distracted defusing or analyzing arguments. He's busy posting gems like 425.

I'm kind of struggling to understand why you think this would be white-knighting for the purpose of pocketing Saudade, rather than white-knighting for the purposes of generating content? Do you think implosion would look at Saudade and think "hey this is who I should want to be pocketing here right now!" because I can't really imagine that happening and I don't really understand why you think he would think that would be valuable. [Or at least I just don't really think the reasons you're putting forward are realistic]

Point 1 – what the hell is “white-knighting for content”? No idea what that even means.

Point 2 – the purpose of pocketing a player serves a dual purpose for scum – to have a mini Appeal to Authority on their flip if it happens (“See, I was correct in reading Player Z as Town”) and also to have someone who might be to help you win the game down the line (“I’m voting MoI because he called me scum and Implosion called me Town”). If you don’t think that’s something reasonable for scum to do we also fundamentally disagree on behaviors scum undertake.

As to whether it is reasonable for scum Implosion to look to be pocketing Saud – there aren’t many players in this game that look like good choices for pocketing that early on. Certainly not the back-side of the players list. And with Prism and Hiraki’s slots MIA in that period it pretty much leaves Flavor and Saud as the early players getting suspicion that Implosion-scum could choose to execute this sort of play with.

Can you point me to where the wagon on you was discredited to a degree that would make Erika this self-conscious about their push on you?

Do you want an actual post? Because if that is the case it isn’t happening. It is a feeling I have reading the flow of the game. My wagon didn’t take off. Erika pushed me with Appeal to Repetition over and over and couldn’t get much in the way of momentum. Granted I'm biased but it would certainly not be the first time I've seen scum backpedal after realizing they'e bitten off more than they can chew with me Day 1.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Vote: StephanB

Grey do I need to go to Mason Divorce court? Because yeah I just have no idea what is going through your head right now. Who is scum? Because you've spent a bunch of time talking about how I might be onto something with Saud and lord knows I have yet to see any sort of good argument that he's Town.

Yeah - anything Tone related is junk that is NEVER, EVER going to sell me that Saud's ISO is Town. Maybe it is but if so he's terrible Firebringer style town in which case he's probably just as good a Day 1 policy as Flavor.

If you want to give me something to chew on with Stephan great but I'm certainly not jumping away from where my head is at to join Naked Vote 2018 even if it is you.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And no-one is unlynchable. I have seen MoI vig-shot on day 1 when he was scum before. So if he is scum we can get him.

Link me that because hell if I remember that game.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm just straight up wrong and biased and need to move to something else.

Getting food and then I'll dust myself off and try and tackle reading MoI/Imp. Might as well buy some french fries to go with all of my salt.

How about providing us with some reads because that whole last post was basically "Defend defend oh I screwed up and all my prior work is trashed due to bad data". You've had enough time to dig into the game and give us something and not just taking sides on Implosion / MoI.

[implosion]

Won't have time to post more than this tonight.

I'm really, really tempted to just not respond to MoI's last wall at all because I'm pretty sure we're both just misunderstanding each other and it's unproductive to keep going back and forth. So a select couple of points:

so your vote was a reaction test that failed miserably

This is a complete misrep. It was not a reaction test more than it was just a placeholder of i-don't-have-anywhere-better-to-put-this.

as opposed to keeping a vote on your claimed scum suspect in Flavor?

Like I said (at least I'm pretty sure I said this) I was somewhat concerned about the claim even though I didn't believe it. Or at least I felt like I should unvote because of it. I went back and forth about it a bit in my head, and it's all colored by the fact that it's boonskiies.

Umm whut? You are giving him a solid Town read on his refusal to jump on a bandwagon on me. And are not to going to assume my alignment in doing so?

Why the hell would I.
Your alignment has very little directly to do with his; town are wrong sometimes. Scum bus sometimes. Jumping or not jumping onto a wagon that happens to be on scum is not a tell out of the context of the jump/lack thereof itself. Towns lynch mafia at a rate close to random on day one, and modulating how I'm reading one person with how I'm reading another with no flips is just guaranteed to have something wrong.

Third point WRT erika is fair.

But overall I just feel like you're misinterpreting me very heavily because (i think like keely said) you're imposing the way you think about the game on to me, which is something I used to do a while ago but stopped because it's just a bad idea.

@Hiraki: you probably have a good point that I'm being at least somewhat hypocritical WRT magna and boon. But (1) I respect magna's play in general a lot more, and (2) I do think I've seen things from boon that are more likely to come from him as scum. I've certainly entertained the thought of flavor being town and I'm not sure why you think I haven't. I'm not sold on him being scum by any means, but he's scummier to me than anyone else in the game right now. I don't always get good scumreads on day one and I try to audit myself because I have a tendency to latch on to things that I later wind up completely disagreeing with myself on.

[Hiraki]

I mean that's OK but I'm not at all convinced by the fact that you just threw your vote there as if it was nothing.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Implosion - I don’t believe I have many, if any, town games with you.

[Saudade]

people that replace out are big big losers

[UC Voyager]

Spoiler: VoteCount Settings

priorVCNumber=4
url=viewtopic.php?f=2&t=75603
playerList=Flavor Leaf{FL+Flavor},Saudade,WhyMafia,Floosh,GreyIce{Grey},MagnaOfIllusion{MoI},Gamma Emerald{Gamma+GE},implosion,Hoopla,Cheetory6,StefanB,Erika Furudo{Erika},CultOfAthena{CoA+Cult+Athena}
replacementList=WhyMafia:Prism, Floosh:Hiraki
moderatorNames=UC Voyager
dayStartNumbers=0
cleanDay=true
deadline=2018-04-18 00:26:59 -8.00
deadList=
voteOverrides=

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