Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[havingfitz]

You want Kop lynched but you don't want to be held responsible just in case he is Town,

What are you talking about? My previous comments are based on what has happened up to this point. Iirc I've had a town lean on Kop till now. A second scum lynch chsnges that read imo. And I expect I'll vote KH shortly...just phone posting and the day just starting has me in no rush to vote.

[havingfitz]

@fitz: And I think the SK would try to hunt down the last Mafia and redirect suspicion off themselves while actively NOT voting the person they

agree

is the last Mafioso.

I disagree. They don't know who mafia are until a flip happens. Imo they are happy to hunt mafia during the day...regardless of outcome and then take their best guess shot at night.

[havingfitz]

Alright then. I stand corrected. So fitz is FoSing everyone and their neighbor

Apparently.

Are there any players you've completely dismissed as mafia or sk?

And having everyone on one list or the other (not intentional btw) doesn't mean I'd support their wagon today.

[Almost50]

I certainly have. I'm not lynching outside you, Kop & texcat.

[Shadpearl]

@Almost50 Just curious - what gives Taly a safe pass? :o

[Almost50]

Her overall play. As I said, I do not want to go back digging long forgotten details, but do you realize Taly didn't vote either of the lynched Doctors and the only lynch wagon she was on was profii's?

[Something_Smart]

How does that make him not SK?

[Something_Smart]

Fitz if you're having trouble with my name just call me iiSq, lol.

[Something_Smart]

Just based off of today's posting, I don't get scumvibes from fitz or Kopherald, for the record.

[Almost50]

How does that make him not SK?

Why would the SK want to be on the Mafia lynch and not on Town?

@Taly: Man, you need to change your avi! I keep referring to you as a she because of it!

[Almost50]

^ That is to say I'M SORRY FOR USING THE WRONG PRONOUN

[Something_Smart]

Why would the SK want to be on the Mafia lynch and not on Town?

SK doesn't know anyone's alignments...

[Almost50]

Yes, which is why they're likely to treat everyone the same, i.e. be on all lynch wagons or on none of them.

[Something_Smart]

What.

[Something_Smart]

Town don't know anyone's alignments either; does that mean town are likely to be on all wagons or none of them?

[Something_Smart]

Like... not knowing alignments means you use READS to decide whether or not you should be on a wagon. Not that you just jump on all of them or stay off all of them...

[Almost50]

Town don't know anyone's alignments either; does that mean town are likely to be on all wagons or none of them?

Come on, man. Town are trying to lynch scum. SK is trying to lynch everyone but themselves. If I'm Town and TRing someone I won't want to lynch them. If I'm SK it doesn't matter to me if I'm TRing or SRing the subject. I just want them lynched. In other words, I'd try to be on every wagon so as not to be singled out when they flip scum, or I try to avoid every lynch wagon so as not to be called on a town flip. These are not the same at all.

[Something_Smart]

Why can a SK not have some of both? If they try to be on scum wagons and off town wagons, then they can not be singled out after a scumflip AND not be called out on a town flip.

[Taly]

@Taly: I don't have much to say in way of explaining my SR on texcat. I'm just saying if it ain't Kopbrass it's texcat.

And I dunno.. it's been a while and he night took like forever, but I seem to remember I got the feeling it was Sando is the Tracker after I had spent the game starting D2 thinking it was you. Something he said though convinced me he tracked profii to a kill.

Fitz is hard to read for me. His playstyle -in general- is one that could fit a TPR (not applicable here), a VT who is busy IRL (fitz is almost always busy), a Mafioso who is "playing solo" (i.e. making sure he's not linked with the other 2), or the SK. He didn't even make one serious push on anyone for me to try and see if that would come from scum!him or Town!him.

Btw, the same applies to Kop (but it's not the same for brass, whom I do believe to be busy IRL for this current time).

Suffice it to say meta-reading fitz/Kop is useless, and brass has exceptional circumstances that make his lack of activity NAI. texcat is playing within her scum-range though.

I'll think more about

texcat

if

Kopherald

or

havingfitz

flip town, but right now, I'm most confident in

Kopherald

scum, and I've stuck to that.

If we lynch correctly, the most that can happen is a 6-Person D5; this gives town an extra day.

If someone's being strongly scumread, and the responses have not dissipated the suspicion, I don't see a lot of town-motivation in prolonging discussion without factual information at this point.

In this circumstance; scum/SK will do everything they can to blur the lines of what they believe to be town or scum in order to generate WIFOM. That's not to say townies shouldn't question things, or confirm what someone means;

But look at

Kopherald and havingfitz's

responses to my case on them:

1)

Neither

of them even so asked about my conclusions and thought process, and they both treated as though my case didn't exist almost. There is no explanation provided by them.
-

2)

Kopherald

proceeds to vote

Havingfitz

, despite shading the possibility of

texcat

and

Ausuka

being scum as well - even though there are only 2 scum left. He also keeps talking about how he's already given cases but doesn't direct others to his points, or elaborate on how that read has evolved since flips and dayphases have passed. Why didn't

Kopherald

place his vote in his opening post of this day?
-

3)

Havingfitz

has tied the majority of his thinking today in locating the last scum partner based on interactions with

PROFII

alone. He's given rationale, but he's created a WHOLE DICHOTOMY within the playerlist. Essentially, he thinks Mafia is in: {Something_Smart, Kopherald, Taly} - and SK within {Almost50, Shadpearl, Ausuka, texcat} - He literally gave NO definitive stance on his thoughts, other than:

"you're not scum this way"

He also tops this off with saying he might end his vote onto

Kopherald

... because, why didn't he do that before?

They're both deflecting any argument on them, dodging it; and pointing the finger at anyone else in a manner that does NOT serve to provide ANY new insight into the game.

Havingfitz and Kopherald's

responses this game has only confirmed my scumreads on them.

Spoiler: My Detailed Response To Kopherald

So, on the Taly case, I think lots of confirmation bias is going on. Taly truly believes we are scum, and any explanations we give to anything that is brought up has already been ignored to accentuate the conclusion.

1)

What confirmation bias? Explain to me what you mean by that, and give an example of WHY my many reasons to suspect you as scum is THAT. That's more than dismissing my whole argument and saying

"I can't do anything about it"

or

"I've said all I needed to say"

2)

Are you scumreading me or not? If you aren't, then make more of an effort to talk to me.

Personally, that's why I'm not chomping at the bit to post here, it feels useless if people are just going to use something I've already spoken about with plenty of detail, like my lack of withdrawing the flavor leaf vote after his claim, to make a case and town's just going to follow the case. I've had my say, and people have shown a remarkable ability to ignore it and forget about it. I'm pretty sure this is an SK win at this point anyway because I think SK knows who the last scum is but scum doesn't know who the SK is.

...You're not game solving, or giving any clarity to anyone. This is not pro-town.

You didn't do anything else with your vote D1, why? That, and the Flavor Leaf claim-lynch, are not the ONLY reasons I'm scumreading you.

I'll lay our vote down for Fitz here and move on because no matter how many times we post our case, it bending l becomes that we haven't posted a case on them and I'm tired of putting in efforts that are going to be ignored.

VOTE: Fitz

SO you think

Havingfitz

is the SK? It's not like I'm disagreeing here... But I can't see how you're town when you aren't expanding on your thoughts.

Spoiler: My Detailed Response To havingfitz

So just some random non read-through based VCA musings from my phone....

-_- Are you saying this to minimize my thoughts?

I don't think (in order of conviction) that A50, Asuka or texcat are likely to be the last mafia based on their efforts towards profii.
I lean against Shad being the last mafia slightly based on their profii vote but moreso for profii's commitment towards Shad.
I lean least against Taly being the last mafia slightly based on their profii. I do think they are a decent candidate for bussing profii in combination with profii's brief, harmless, Taly vote yesterday.
Most likely to be the last mafia (in order of conviction) would be Kopherald, Something Special or the aforementioned Taly.

As for SKs...I think they are likely to be aggressive in their hunting for mafia (with town) but also not too bothered at anyone other than themselves being the eventual lynch. So I think there is a decent chance the SK is on both lynches. This filter would (in order of conviction) point to A50, texcat, Asuka and Shad.

To reiterate...

I think the last mafia (in order of conviction) is Kopherald, Something Special or the aforementioned Taly.
I think the sk (in order of conviction) is within A50, texcat, Asuka and Shad.

Further reading, and re-reading, as this day progresses will hopefully result in stronger reads for each scum.

.....This post is.... wow.

You literally put up a vague case on you suspecting EVERYONE in the game when 3/4ths of the playerlist are conftown based on setup.

And you didn't do anything else here, no questions, no votes, nothing to help better the town's perceptions.

.....

You want Kop lynched but you don't want to be held responsible just in case he is Town,

What are you talking about? My previous comments are based on what has happened up to this point. Iirc I've had a town lean on Kop till now. A second scum lynch chsnges that read imo. And I expect I'll vote KH shortly...just phone posting and the day just starting has me in no rush to vote.

Of course you'd want the day to last as long as possible.

You have no townreads. -_-

But you know, why wait to vote anyone then? The whole point of your 1319 was to take attention away from yourself, while saying so little out of a lot.

Also, I don't buy that you townread Kopherald early game:

VOTE: havingfitz

Would policy lynch someone who gets away five days without being poked.

Might be something or nothing, but posting in a PT would that avoid a poke?

- Kop

Wow... brass I could see asking this question but not Kop.

For someone so concerned with my v/la and whether I should have been prodded during it (WTF!?) you'd think you could answer my question to you above.

VOTE: Kopherald

I also ISOed you, and this was the only time you took a definitive stance on

Kopherald

throughout the entire game up until your latest posts that seem to suspect everyone.

^ That is to say I'M SORRY FOR USING THE WRONG PRONOUN

Oh, don't worry about that. I don't care if people mess up with pronouns.

I do my AVI like it is because I LOVE PURPLE. XD

[Taly]

Her overall play. As I said, I do not want to go back digging long forgotten details, but do you realize Taly didn't vote either of the lynched Doctors and the only lynch wagon she was on was profii's?

How does that make him not SK?

Seriously, it's not like I'm absolved from being wrong, because I have been wrong in this game, and I've admitted to it.

And to set things to perspective:

1)

For as much as I believed

TheGoldenParadox

was scum; I was NOT willing to lynch a doc-claim in D1 on

Flavor Leaf

.

2)

I actually was going to vote

JimmyUrineShot

after waffling on

profii

, and I've made my read progression on

profii

both D2 and D3 very obvious.

If there's any reasons at all, about my play, that you have questions, then I'm willing to answer them.

As for my push on

JayDragonKing

((which by the way, NOBODY LISTENED TO.))

, I wasn't 100% sold on him as scum, I just believed his play was atrocious for town.

And there are literally walls plastered on this thread about my interactions with

profii

.

I've taken every source of information I've gathered in this game to create my reads, votes, and pushes, while letting my reasoning be known.

[Taly]

I'm getting frustrated at this point.

Arguments for my alignment in this game has been WIFOMed and waffled on so incredibly much each time I take a position in this game.

There's an argument that I'm scum.
There's an argument that I'm SK.
There's an argument that counters me as SK.
There's an argument that I'm town.
There's an argument that I was bussing.

It's exhausting, and I feel like half the people making their reads on me are:

1)

Weakly-formulated.

2)

Serve to, what I can understand, is weaken my voice.

~~~

I don't know how 1317 and 1319 have not gathered more votes yet.

[Kopherald]

1343 shows the confirmation bias I was talking about.

I mean, whatever we do just proves to Taly that we are scum. That's why I'm not going to waste my time responding to cases when he's clearly just under extreme confirmation bias. It's a pretty decent case if you only focus on the things he says and nothing else that we have said the entire game. Like, seriously Taly, fuck off. I'm not wasting my time responding to you when you have shown repeatedly that it won't matter. You made your point, you're wrong, I'm done with it. We'vce expanded on the havingfitz case weeks ago, I explained the no unvote for Flavour Leaf weeks ago. That's two points you have ignored, why should I put my time and energy into any other responses when my responses have already gone ignored?

No matter how many times I hit my head against a goddamned wall, my head is breaking before the wall, and that's what it feels like at this point.

-Brass

[Almost50]

Why can a SK not have some of both? If they try to be on scum wagons and off town wagons, then they can not be singled out after a scumflip AND not be called out on a town flip.

But they'd be shot by the Mafia at night for looking like they know something (PR) or having better reads.

[Almost50]

VOTE: texcat

Not feeling a Kopbrass lynch today.

[Something_Smart]

Why can a SK not have some of both? If they try to be on scum wagons and off town wagons, then they can not be singled out after a scumflip AND not be called out on a town flip.

But they'd be shot by the Mafia at night for looking like they know something (PR) or having better reads.

Only if they actually do have better reads. And there's no reason an SK's mafia reads should be better than a townie's mafia reads.