Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[Taly]

[Almost50]

Why can a SK not have some of both? If they try to be on scum wagons and off town wagons, then they can not be singled out after a scumflip AND not be called out on a town flip.

But they'd be shot by the Mafia at night for looking like they know something (PR) or having better reads.

Only if they actually do have better reads. And there's no reason an SK's mafia reads should be better than a townie's mafia reads.

Are you going somewhere with this or are you arguing for the sake of arguing?

TOWN DO NOT CARE IF THEY GET NIGHT-KILLED. THE SERIAL KILLER DOES CARE. It follows that even if they both had identical reads they might not behave the same way. Taly having a TR on either or both Doctors does NOT prevent him from voting them anyway.

[Taly]

You can't even point me to the posts,

Kopherald

, and expand on them? Or has your thoughts just stayed the same this game?

Almost50

... why...

Something_Smart

, what are you even doing...

[Taly]

I have literally wanted to be NKed since N1.

[Almost50]

Like, really S_S.. get a grip, my friend. "only if they actually have better reads"?? THAT.. when we're discussing the case at hand where Taly actually ONLY lynched scum and wasn't on either of the Town wagons??

[Something_Smart]

I'm trying to understand your thought process because it makes no sense to me.

The way I see it, an SK sees all players roughly equally, and so they are not terribly invested in which players get lynched as long as it's not them. So if an SK is not under pressure... I don't see why they'd particularly avoid being on some wagons and not others, as you're suggesting.

[Taly]

I'm trying to understand your thought process because it makes no sense to me.

The way I see it, an SK sees all players roughly equally, and so they are not terribly invested in which players get lynched as long as it's not them. So if an SK is not under pressure... I don't see why they'd particularly avoid being on some wagons and not others, as you're suggesting.

Hi, I exist.

[Something_Smart]

Hi Taly! I am trying to get A50 to explain his point of view in a comprehensible way because right now it's not really.

Like, really S_S.. get a grip, my friend. "only if they actually have better reads"?? THAT.. when we're discussing the case at hand where Taly actually ONLY lynched scum and wasn't on either of the Town wagons??

I'm not talking about Taly at this point. I'm talking about you saying that SK's will usually be on all lynch wagons or none of them.

[Almost50]

I have literally wanted to be NKed since N1.

Which is what I'm arguing in some way. You not voting TOWN gets you shot by Mafia. You voting Mafia gets you shot by Mafia. You TRing me all of a sudden gets you shot by both Mafia and SK, so "assuming you're the SK" gets you shot by Mafia. This isn't how someone who wants to survive plays.

[Something_Smart]

Taly, do you understand/agree with the argument A50 is putting forward here?

[Almost50]

So if an SK is not under pressure... I don't see why they'd particularly avoid being on some wagons and not others, as you're suggesting.

Except I'm suggesting the exact opposite. I'm suggesting they would NOT avoid being on some wagon. Taly DID AVOID being on Town wagons, thus not the SK. Congratulations! You hit JACKPOT!

[Taly]

Taly, do you understand/agree with the argument A50 is putting forward here?

What part?

The literal read part that's moving the game?

Or the theoretical part that's drowning me out?

Hi Taly! I am trying to get A50 to explain his point of view in a comprehensible way because right now it's not really.

Like, really S_S.. get a grip, my friend. "only if they actually have better reads"?? THAT.. when we're discussing the case at hand where Taly actually ONLY lynched scum and wasn't on either of the Town wagons??

I'm not talking about Taly at this point. I'm talking about you saying that SK's will usually be on all lynch wagons or none of them.

I've been on BOTH town and scum wagons.

I've just ended D1 and D3 being on a scum wagon/lynch.

I've BEEN SK once. It's wise to kill whoever cannot support you as town, and it makes no sense to avoid any potential lynch wagon.

That's my perspective on how SKs would most likely play, and probably the closest I can ever get to a self-meta, on how I would be as an SK.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=60966

It was my first completed Mafia game ever; and I won the game.

My play here isn't as developed as it is now, but it's not too difficult to spot an SK.

SK's are like townies that play survivalistically, and don't initially care how a lynch will affect the town. They just need enough scum to die so their wincon is more likely to occur in the end.

That's how I've viewed my current strongest SK-read

havingfitz

.

[Almost50]

I'm not talking about Taly at this point. I'm talking about you saying that SK's will usually be on all lynch wagons or none of them.

If you want me to explain to you how to play as SK I'd be more than glad to do so post-game. Right now I'm interested in trying to solve this game.

In fact, here's a reference. I won this game as the Serial Killer by being on all 4 lynches (granted, we were/I was lucky we lynched the whole scum team in the opening 3 days, but it's the one example I can find off the top of my head).

Now rake a look at this game where fitz was the SK. He avoided both lynches on D1/D2 and got lynched himself on D3.

Please remember that we are arguing how the SK plays, not the outcome of the game or whether it's better to be on or off wagons. These are two examples of SK either being on all lynches or on none of them.

[Taly]

Almost50

, are you thinking

texcat

is more likely SK? If so, what are you thinking about

havingfitz

?

[Almost50]

Bottom line: SK tends to be impartial as to whom is being wagoned. They are either aggressive and would want to appear like they're doing stuff with town, thus appear on every lynch, OR they're passive and want to fly under the radar in which case they avoid being on the main wagons. They can't afford to be on some wagons and not the others, because if the wagons they're on flip Scum they'd be NK'd by scum who might think they're a TPR or are having a good day reading them. If those wagons flip own though they'd be suspected by town for being scum with those they didn't end up voting.

The exception is when they do appear on one town lynch and one scum lynch in the opening 2 days. Only then do they actually have the luxury of avoiding being on the D3 lynch because they've already shown they're not likely group scum and also not having better than average reads.

[Almost50]

I am not sure about fitz and I've explained it's virtually impossible to get a read on him the way he plays. There are exceptions but those depend on certain circumstances. Fitz wasn't on Flavor Leaf, but he was on Jimmy (the two town lynches), then wasn't on Profii. This "could" be SK!him avoiding the first lynch, feeling the urge to be on the second and hoping that it was on scum, but if we apply the same scheme then he should have been on Profii (who was almost confirmed scum by that time).

Scum!fitz (i.e. MAFIA him) would have either been on both Town lynches or off them both still (more likely off them so as not to draw suspicion), but then he would have still bussed his outed p.

Overall, "mechanically" speaking this isn't scum!fitz, but it's hard to tell by play excluding VCA, and fitz isn't exactly 100% predictable to me.

[Almost50]

Applying the same criteria I'd say Kop is the last Mafioso and texcat is the SK (appears on every lynch), but then she would say "but so do you" (I also appear on all lynch wagons), and I wouldn't be able to explain the difference. However, deep inside of me and regardless of the VCA I do feel like this is texcat's scum game. She hasn't been loud enough. She has been "hiding in plain site". It looks like her scum game to me.

[Almost50]

She's also voting fitz over Kop, and I have a feeling it's because she thinks Kop is the last Mafioso and she needs him to do one more kill for her tonight, and maybe even the next night.

6 v 1 v 1 now
5 v 1 v 1 with a mislynch
3 v 1 v 1 tomorrow
then either lynch Kop and kill someone and be in a 2 v 1 LyLo
or lynch a townie and hope Kop would shoot another townie while she shoots him
Basically she's probably relying on her 1 shot BP and 1/3 elemental BP.. like I'm not quite sure what her plan is but texcat is much better than she let's us see

[Something_Smart]

Please remember that we are arguing how the SK plays, not the outcome of the game or whether it's better to be on or off wagons. These are two examples of SK either being on all lynches or on none of them.

Here's six examples of the opposite.

THAT SAID.

I think we've lost track of what we're supposed to be doing here. What we really should be doing is basing claims based on evidence in this game, and not generalizations of any sort. What you really should do, instead of saying "Taly doesn't fit into my pre-established mold for SK play", is to look at whether you think he's been playing survivalistically or if he's actually been focused on finding scum.

And... it looks to me like he does believe his arguments today, even though I don't personally find them that compelling.

[davesaz]

Official Vote Count 4.3

Kopherald (2) - Taly, Ausuka
havingfitz (2) - texcat, Kopherald
texcat (1) - Almost50

Not Voting (3) - havingfitz, Something_Smart, Shadpearl

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

(expired on 2018-04-27 17:00:00)

[Taly]

So it's confirmed that I have piss-poor charisma, at least in this game...

I want to hear

texcat

speak more and respond to

Almost50

, but my stances/reads so far have not changed.

I don't know why anybody who's read the game would think I'm playing survivalistically.

[Something_Smart]

So it's confirmed that I have piss-poor charisma, at least in this game...

For me, it's just that I'm not particularly partial to the style of NKA and VCA you're doing.

Since I haven't read most of the game (and don't really plan to, though I might ISO people), maybe you could quote some posts from Kopherald and havingfitz and explain why you think they're unlikely to come from town?

[havingfitz]

Fitz if you're having trouble with my name just call me iiSq, lol.

Sorry...I was mid post and going off memory. There could have been worse names to come up with

[havingfitz]

Of course you'd want the day to last as long as possible.

You have no townreads. -_-

The post you quote was one of the first I'd made this gameday...and not being terribly confident about any reads...why rush things.

My reads this game are a sliding scale of suspicion. If you want to know who I think is most likely town invert the reads I provided.

And I'm not trying to ignore anything. If you have something you really wanted a response on repost it....succintly if possible.

[Something_Smart]

Sorry...I was mid post and going off memory. There could have been worse names to come up with

Lol, the funny thing is that's not the first time someone's called me that.