Micro 789 - Alternating 9p - Mafia wins

[Lovebird]

@Lovebird, I'd really like to see your reaction to the claim since you've been active on site in the past hour or so.

Hi.

[Lovebird]

Don't cc doc.

[Lovebird]

Anyway since a claim occurred then I think it's pretty straight forward. If nobody CC's we lynch love. If somebody CC's we lynch Ico. If someone counterclaims and ico is town they scumclaimed obviously.

Lol

I should count how many times people just say "we lynch love today". Then compare to the number of times people give reasons.

[Lovebird]

Definitely need to wait for replacement. I still feel like ico is scum.

[BlackVoid]

He's not clear yet since GreenLiquid, and Korina's slot never said they weren't doc. But upon re-reading, I thought the way Icon was responding to me seemed genuine. So, I'm pretty much starting to accept that I was wrong on at least one of my four townreads so I'm reading through again to see where I could have gone wrong. Need to head to work right now but I'm going to check out Lovebird's scumgame tonight and post thoughts. The good thing about having an empty slot is that we're not in any rush to end the day.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Lovebird - 2 - Iconeum, BuJaber
Iconeum - 1 - Greenliquid
Korina - 1 - lovebird

Not Voting - Korina, BlackVoid, CheekyTeeky

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is suspended and will be set for 48 hours after a replacement is found.

Korina is being replaced.

[Iconeum]

Scum has no reason to cc me.

If we do not lynch love today, thenwho?

[BlackVoid]

Reading through Lovebird's Forest Fire game as an arsonist, I do see a lot of similarities. She started out with a very plausible-sounding townread on a townie and then tunneled another townie (Ethos) until he got lynched. I feel that the reasoning was somewhat weaker than her push on Iconeum here although I'm not sure how much of this is just me subconsciously filling in the blanks for her Iconeum scumread because I agreed with it. Pre-empting Lovebird's response, no I haven't read a towngame to compare. But I'm not saying the similarity is necessarily scummy. It is the fact that she did most of the things I townread her for in a game as an arsonist means that the basis for my townread is flawed and I need to start again from scratch.

Definitely need to wait for replacement. I still feel like ico is scum.

Why would he fake-claim doc? If he's scum trying to draw out a PR, it is the cop that he needs outed today so his partner can shoot them at night. A VT claim might allow him survive if he sways people away from his lynch. A doc claim is the worst of both worlds. He guarantees that he's going to get lynched when he ultimately gets cc'd AND the scum still don't know who the cop is to shoot tonight. So, I'm not really expecting a cc at this point.

I don't want to sit and wait for the replacement without making progress in discussing the game. Once the replacement happens, we only have 48 hours to secure a lynch and with the pace of this game, that's not much time to get good reads. I'd rather treat Iconeum as conf-town and work from there to gamesolve. If it turns out he did for whatever reason claim doc as scum, then we'll know instantly once the replacement happens (or if GL counterclaims) so no harm done.

I'm a little disappointed that you didn't realize this and are continuing to hold onto your scumread there. You've been pretty cagey with your thought process in general, help me out here by explaining stuff more.

Lol. That comes from me as town. As scum I make up hard reads to push, like eth0s in the treegame.

The thing is, you've been doing exactly this for most of the game, except replace Ethos with Iconeum.

Why did you think BuJaber and Iconeum were likely partners as of 400?

I don't understand why you found Raskol suspicious (I'm talking about your 409). He voted Cheeky and called her scum with or without Not_Mafia. I'm not sure how the post you quoted translates to him giving up or being more likely to be scum. If you are talking about what you said in 402 (that Rask was there but didn't post), that's a pretty weak reason to switch from a viewpoint of Icon being lockscum with BuJaber as a likely partner to suddenly demanding a claim from Rask. That fits in more with scum trying to get as many claims out as possible.

I voted NM after coming back from getting prodded because nobody cared about lynching my scumread and the game wasn't moving, needed a lynch.

The problem with this is that throughout D1 you haven't actively tried to persuade people that Iceoneum was scum. Most of the time you talked about him was in response to people questioning your read/vote. I need a little more from you here. How are Iconeum's post "empty?" What is the scum motivation in his posts? I sort of skated over this because I thought you were seeing similar things that I was but now that I think he's most likely not scum, I want to see you explain the read in your own words.

[BlackVoid]

I have a really hard time seeing GreenLiquid, CheekyTeeky or BuJaber as mafia here. I planned to re-read D2 tonight but I've been awake all night so this will have to be tomorrow.

I'm not sure I can rule out Lovebird/Korina at this point. I see the logic there and thought they were unlikely partners but the scenario of Korina replacing into a scumslot and seeing his partner under pressure and distancing is not really unlikely. If he went to bat for Lovebird, they would have been more likely to have been pegged as a team.

GreenLiquid has consistently been pushing Lovebird so that team is unlikely. BuJaber's interactions point away from a team as well. CheekyTeeky's interactions aren't that conclusive but I've been townreading her still. I'll explain reasons for all these tomorrow. I'm not sure what other team works. Would like some thoughts on that.

[CheekyTeeky]

Its easy to reason Ico is the doc when you know he is the doc lol. Scum wouldn't dare counter claim that role as it's not worth it. The pace of the game is due to replacements. I'm sure if one comes and there isn't a CC we've got ideas in mind already for who we're going to lynch.

There's no need to peg a team today, we just need to lynch scum and look back the next day.

Feel free to continue gamesolving however. I really need the claim confirmed and replacement to catch up before I'm trashing all my reads.

[Iconeum]

Vla until monday

[BlackVoid]

What do you mean it's easy to reason Ico is the doc when I know he's the doc? Why would he fake-claim doc as opposed to cop here? I don't get why it's necessary to waste an indefinite amount of time waiting for a replacement to confirm Iconeum when it's very likely he's town to begin with simply because it's almost always optimal for scum to fake-claim cop. 48 hours is a pretty short time and people will probably check in once or twice.

BlackVoid can you please give scum team predictions based on Ico flipping either alignment? GL and Bu same question.

Also, considering this I don't think asking

you

for scumteam predictions on the basis on Icon flipping town is unreasonable?

[BuJaber]

BV can you explain your townread on cheeky? I understand the resisting NM lynch part. Not necessarily conclusive but I'm okay with calling that a townie play.
However his play since then hasn't been too confidence-boosting now that we are almost sure that Icon is town.

I am voting for love or cheeky today. Unless of course korina-slot CCs ico but that doesn't seem likely.

[GreenLiquid]

I am not the doctor.

@Cheeky: It seems pretty likely Ico is actually the doc at this point, but if for some reason he isn't, Korina is the most likely partner. I don't think Ico/Bu are a scum team, so that would make Bu look townier to me. Lovebird and BV have both been putting strong pressure on Ico, so I think they are relatively less likely partners.
If Ico is town, I think we are most likely to find scum in Lovebird, and, to a lesser extent, Bu, but I kind of doubt they are partners.

@BlackVoid: My read on Lovebird is basically due to:

1. Her turnaround on Rask on pages 16 and 17. She goes from town reading him (377) to, after a conversation with Cheeky, having doubts (387) but still not wanting to vote Rask (389). She gets pressure from Bu, reacts in a way that seems overly defensive (397), then starts asking about Rask (401, 402), then after a single post from Rask (406) drops a L-1 vote on him (411). This could easily be a scum play to try to get pressure off herself but dropping it onto Raskie, and seemed like it was working until I called it out.
I could see someone's town read plausibly reversing from seeing Rask's turnabout on ZZZX followed by (essentially useless) pressure on Not_Mafia, but for their town read to

go straight to a L-1 vote

during that interval, while under pressure from others, is way too convenient.

2. Lovebird was the L-1 on Not_Mafia, and she hopped onto that wagon with no stated reason other than "Doubting other reads. Fine with this" -- and that was right after she got fakehammered by Cheeky, too. To me that looks like skittish scum eager to ride someone else's wagon out of harm's way.

3. In general, Lovebird hasn't been engaging with the game in a sustained way. She has been hopping in and out, asking various questions she never follows up on or seems to care about the answers to. I haven't gotten the sense this entire game that she has been sorting anyone -- her Ico read appears out of nowhere in 51 and she doesn't bother to explain it until specifically asked later, and her vote on Not_Mafia is preceded with only the comment "Totally empty slots really annoying" (148). Her turnaround on Rask is the only thing in her D1 game resembling sorting and it's pretty suspicious as I said above, plus she unvotes in 420 and never revisits Rask again. These are the only three players she ever votes D1.
As I mentioned earlier, it's possible this is just something specific to Love's playstyle, and it's true that she improves D2, but taken as a whole this paints the picture of a relatively under-the-radar scum game reliant on appearing active without taking hard stances or engaging with players at length.

4. This is relatively minor compared with the above, but the Raskie kill does point slightly towards Lovebird, as he showed willingness to vote for her near the end of D1 (to the point of getting her to L-1). However, that could also point to Korina or BV.

My view on Korina is still summed up by my Christopher read in 479. Since replacing in, Korina hasn't done anything to alter that read.

[GreenLiquid]

Lovebird is the most likely player alive to flip scum in my opinion, so this one is a no-brainer. I'm going to trust we don't have any ZZZX wannabes around and place the L-1.

VOTE: Lovebird

[Lovebird]

Why would he fake-claim doc? If he's scum trying to draw out a PR, it is the cop that he needs outed today so his partner can shoot them at night. A VT claim might allow him survive if he sways people away from his lynch. A doc claim is the worst of both worlds. He guarantees that he's going to get lynched when he ultimately gets cc'd AND the scum still don't know who the cop is to shoot tonight. So, I'm not really expecting a cc at this point.

Just how it feels. I know he's town if nobody ccs. Just, that was my biggest scumread for a while now.

[Lovebird]

Why did you think BuJaber and Iconeum were likely partners as of 400?

I forget now honestly. Looked back and it was probably soft scumreads or pushes of eachother but not much threat of being lynched, or just awkward interactions. Distancing.

[Lovebird]

I don't understand why you found Raskol suspicious (I'm talking about your 409). He voted Cheeky and called her scum with or without Not_Mafia. I'm not sure how the post you quoted translates to him giving up or being more likely to be scum. If you are talking about what you said in 402 (that Rask was there but didn't post), that's a pretty weak reason to switch from a viewpoint of Icon being lockscum with BuJaber as a likely partner to suddenly demanding a claim from Rask. That fits in more with scum trying to get as many claims out as possible.

You lose context here because of the timing

I checked rasks site posts and he was posting a ton in other games and discussion but not this one. Then he posts just the one vote thing on cheeky. Felt like caught scum just giving the

idk what the word is. The something effort necessary to look like hes still trying but hes not really trying.

[Lovebird]

I never said ico and bujaber were lockscum?

[Lovebird]

And, when cheeky was talking to me I went back and looked at the zzx interaction. Looked worse than I remembered.

[Lovebird]

The problem with this is that throughout D1 you haven't actively tried to persuade people that Iceoneum was scum. Most of the time you talked about him was in response to people questioning your read/vote. I need a little more from you here. How are Iconeum's post "empty?" What is the scum motivation in his posts? I sort of skated over this because I thought you were seeing similar things that I was but now that I think he's most likely not scum, I want to see you explain the read in your own words.

It's not "scum motivation", but what I saw was scum faking sorting. Like, doesn't actually care about what he's saying, just putting on front.

I'm not good at convincing people. As you can see.

[Lovebird]

@Cheeky: It seems pretty likely Ico is actually the doc at this point, but if for some reason he isn't, Korina is the most likely partner. I don't think Ico/Bu are a scum team, so that would make Bu look townier to me. Lovebird and BV have both been putting strong pressure on Ico, so I think they are relatively less likely partners.

If he's not doc, how could korina be partner? Korina's the only one not counterclaimed yet, right?

[Lovebird]

GL, why are you townreading Korina again?

[GreenLiquid]

If he's not doc, how could korina be partner? Korina's the only one not counterclaimed yet, right?

At this point I'm like 99% sure Ico is the doctor, so I was just expressing my thoughts on scum!Ico pairings from before the point of the doc claim. You're correct that Ico/Korina isn't mechanically possible anymore.

GL, why are you townreading Korina again?

I'm not? Christopher played a game I summed up as possibly "low-effort scum" and Korina's catch-up posting was underwhelming to the point of doing nothing to counter that impression.

Why are you nitpicking on my Ico partner speculation and yet getting something this basic backwards?

[CheekyTeeky]