Micro 789 - Alternating 9p - Mafia wins

[GreenLiquid]

I don't have any issue with BV's acceptance of Ico's claim because (1) I think the reasoning he gave is solid, and (2) BV does not strike me as the kind of player who posts sloppily, but the scum!BV interpretation basically amounts to "BV got impatient and scum slipped" and I'm just not buying it.

Oh right, this is a micro.

That leaves BuJaber and BlackVoid for right now out of PoE.

Uggggggggh walls

Am I right in interpreting this to mean that you have no scum reads besides PoE?

Also not liking GL putting Love to L-1 before we heard the replacement out. GL had a fair bit of resistance to the Ico wagon which I need to look into too.

As I said, no other lynch besides Lovebird or

maybe

Bu makes sense for me right now, so unless Ankamius does something legendarily bad and earns my scum read in 48 hours my vote is going to be on Love.
I don't recall resisting the Ico wagon but even so, I don't see why you'd be pinged by resistance to a town wagon.

I don't see you as scum, so I believe you're being genuine with this, but I really don't get what you've been doing over the last couple of pages.

[Ankamius]

I'm saying that getting townreads has been a lot easier than getting scumreads, yes.

Whether that means I'm patching the game back together or embarrassing myself is to be determined.

[Ankamius]

By the way GL, what do you think about my reasoning for LoveBird being town? I'm aware you already aren't convinced by it but I want to know what you think about it itself.

[GreenLiquid]

By the way GL, what do you think about my reasoning for LoveBird being town? I'm aware you already aren't convinced by it but I want to know what you think about it itself.

699 was a solid observation, but there are two problems with it:

1. Most basically, scum can point out oddities as well as town can, so I don't generally consider observations like that AI unless they're especially good or numerous.

2. Lovebird's lack of follow-up after that point fits in perfectly with my D1 scum read of her. She never pushes Bu or votes him or really reacts to him at all other than pointing out some other oddities later in the day. These kinds of 'pop in and go' questions litter her ISO and in my view serve to keep her active without having much of an effect on the game state.

I agree that Lovebird's lack of opposition or pressure elsewhere while facing down a lynch does feel like a resigned town response, but it also doesn't feel out of line with her play for the rest of the game, so for all I know it could just be coasting rather than resignation.

To me it seems like your view of Lovebird is colored somewhat by the fact that you started reviewing from start of D2. Lovebird was significantly scummier in D1 -- if I had only her D2 to go by, I'd likely be reading her null at worst. When I consider her play as a whole, however, I don't see anything that counters my impression from D1.

[Ankamius]

1. Most basically, scum can point out oddities as well as town can, so I don't generally consider observations like that AI unless they're especially good or numerous.

Here's the problem with that: if you were scum knowing that you're in a significant amount of danger of being lynched and you find things to attack, would you point them out and then never reference them again?

2. Lovebird's lack of follow-up after that point fits in perfectly with my D1 scum read of her. She never pushes Bu or votes him or really reacts to him at all other than pointing out some other oddities later in the day. These kinds of 'pop in and go' questions litter her ISO and in my view serve to keep her active without having much of an effect on the game state.

Tbh, this is answered by the same thing. How does this benefit Lovebird-scum? The only way I can rationalize this is if BuJaber is her partner, but that by itself would have to be judged upon a reread of where his head has been today. Even then, why wouldn't BuJaber be using what influence he has to try to push down another slot instead? It's entirely doable with how apathetic the gamestate was up until now.

I agree that Lovebird's lack of opposition or pressure elsewhere while facing down a lynch does feel like a resigned town response, but it also doesn't feel out of line with her play for the rest of the game, so for all I know it could just be coasting rather than resignation.

To me it seems like your view of Lovebird is colored somewhat by the fact that you started reviewing from start of D2. Lovebird was significantly scummier in D1 -- if I had only her D2 to go by, I'd likely be reading her null at worst. When I consider her play as a whole, however, I don't see anything that counters my impression from D1.

Has her play changed at all when she started gaining suspicion? You mentioned that her play under pressure has been the same as the rest of her play this game. If anything, doesn't that indicate that she's not having a self-preservation instinct kicking in?

[GreenLiquid]

Here's the problem with that: if you were scum knowing that you're in a significant amount of danger of being lynched and you find things to attack, would you point them out and then never reference them again?

I don't see why Lovebird would have felt under considerable pressure at 699. Scum can benefit from shading a slot without taking a stand on it, so I don't see why poking at Bu and then leaving would be town-indicative.

You're right that in the event on a Bu/Love team, it doesn't seem likely that Bu would be content to leave Love like this without applying pressure elsewhere, but I'm not convinced that scum!Love in this state would

necessarily

start going all out to defend herself. This is partly why Cheeky's shift over the past couple of pages is worrying me a little.

Has her play changed at all when she started gaining suspicion? You mentioned that her play under pressure has been the same as the rest of her play this game. If anything, doesn't that indicate that she's not having a self-preservation instinct kicking in?

No, I don't think her play changed much after facing suspicion. I feel like she might be the kind of player who doesn't come out swinging even under lynch pressure -- though, unfortunately, I didn't find any scum games in her history where she was facing down a lynch so I can't really argue for or against this from a meta standpoint. If I had to put it succinctly, Lovebird seems like a player more likely to respond to pressure with incredulity and light sarcasm instead of a lengthy rebuttal. You can see this in her ISO in a few places shortly after people pressure her or cast doubt on her.

[Iconeum]

I skimmed from the start of day 2 and got to the end of page 35 and I don't really understand the Love wagon. She looks more town than anybody else right now.

Hi thanks for replacing. Could you please go over your town read of love so others can see it?

This question from Cheeky is really townie. I cannot see why scum would ever bother to ask that.

I thought that Lovebird was already town and I've already given my thoughts on her scumreads; it didn't affect my read negatively.

Icon I didn't need to get a read on at all, I'd already determined he's conftown.

Please give us your towncase for me as well, because I was about to be lynched before claiming. Most were scumreading me. What did you see?

[CheekyTeeky]

@GL:

NM: NM's meta is pretty well known throughout the site. However he usually has one or two good posts from time to time that give you a little insight. This game he has nothing. And that copy paste math lesson is very tongue-in-cheek and completely out of character and unnecessary.

Icon: I guess I expect more from Icon as a leader in this group if he is town. I might be wrong about that. But then he seems to be spending a lot of energy, time and effort on my case but everyone else he either gives a weak read on or a small line about and nothing else. It doesn't seem like town tunneling where he just thinks he's right. It seems like an intentional attack and avoiding to talk about anyone else.

Major: not posting much but also he doesn't seem to scumread icon that strongly so it seemed like a weird choice to make for vote. He also took his RVS vote too seriously.

All 3 people are town here. Interesting reading this knowing that. Just sticky noting while I do my ISOs.

[CheekyTeeky]

I have never played with Z. I don't want to lynch there and by PoE I don't think he's scum but I could see it.
But I don't think chris is scum here. I think he'd be more obvious as scum imo.

This is so bs since noone was able to PoE all Day1 due to lurky slots/general scumminess.

[CheekyTeeky]

Ftr the way that major talks about Rask sounds a lot like scum defending scum. It is the sort of thing people comment on when they know the other is phony. I have each in separate pools so if either of them flips scum the other is more likely to be scum. Though if either flips town it doesn't really change the read on the other one way or another.

Waffling that reaches no conclusion and serves no purpose from a town PoV. A general pattern I'm starting to detect is leaving lynch options open.

[CheekyTeeky]

And as for NM. From my pov the first pool is riskier to lynch from since my theory is based on gamestate theory rather than on the players themselves so I prefer to try to sort them a little later.

Kmd you want to talk?

Tfw mod posts more than players.

All of 177 is bad tbh. Tell me how you PoE'd when the mod posts more than players? Sounds like scum magic to me.

What caught my attention with Buj was how he lead the Love wagon and yet he ended up on the NM wagon. I remember coming into today feeling like he set me up. I'll try to find posts related to the wagon switch.

[Iconeum]

Cheeky, that's fine and all. But we are still lynching Love first.
IIRC you were the one to derail Lovebird lynch earlier. That's not happening again now.

[CheekyTeeky]

For the first time since I joined MS I feel like I have a solid read on NM. Sheep me. He's scum.

@Icon- you've talked a lot to me and about me; do you have any other reads?

Anyway good let's lynch NM or MM

VOTE: GL

Lovebird's opening is significantly more townie than now but really I'm getting a feeling he is following his gameplan in the arsonist game micro we recently finished. He was arso I was firefighter.

Also most of the reasons I townread him earlier were gut based and WIFOMy I realized.

And I am still so confident in my theory of 1 scum between Rask/GL/love. So I'm flip flopping between you.

Okay let's go. Something is a little off with that hammer.

VOTE: NM

JFC. Game solved. Bujaber & BlackVoid. Gg.

[CheekyTeeky]

VOTE: BuJaber

No Ico we aren't. We're lynching BuJaber first.

[CheekyTeeky]

Cheeky, that's fine and all. But we are still lynching Love first.
IIRC you were the one to derail Lovebird lynch earlier. That's not happening again now.

I also derailed NM too so it might pay to listen to me the second time.

[Iconeum]

I can probably come to a consensus on Blackvoid (replacing zzzzx). There's not way we are lynching Bujaber.

Blackvoid/Lovebird is much more likely.

Thoughts from everyone?

[CheekyTeeky]

Bu hard defended ZZZX all D1 with no reason to TR him. But I'm more sure of Bu because he has content and I admit I generally suck at associations so we should start with who I'm sure of.

[Iconeum]

Yeah I'm happy with this.

100% chance of finding scum between korina/love.
99% chance of finding the 2nd scum between GL/cheeky/Ico. There is a chance zz is scum but that seems far too low now that I thought about this some more.

In a game this small where a player like me (usually I'm a low-average poster in games) is one of the top posters there is no way 3 townies out of a pool of 5 townies all find me scummy.

Like this isn't my first game on MS I know for a fact my playstyle/meta is not completely different than everyone on the site. People can and have townread me correctly.

I am voting love or korina today. So yes love is fine. My vote's already there.

VOTE: Icon

I am going to give love a chance. Seems his posts are generally small and somewhat NAI in general. Not clearing him but I think an Icon flip is gonna be helpful here.

And I realized the love/korina not town together kind of assumes ico is town. If ico is scum there's a huge flaw.

Just townreading GL is scummy as all hell. Ico is also a strong townplayer who is difficult to scumread and usually doesn't let inconsistencies and scummy posts fly without scrutiny. He seems rather lazy here. Also he keeps getting cold feet around wagons. He didn't vote for NM. IN FACT he has been tunneling on icon all game and now that we have a real shot at lynching love he's focusing on zzz instead? Why?
If you notice a few posts earliet he said if love flips scum I would be conftown. So we have a wagon that all game long he has been pushing AND if it flips scum it clears another player from his POV AND he doesn't like the counter wagons (me, korina, cheeky earlier) but he still isn't happy lynching Lovebird?

Yeeeeaaah I haven't been noticing this before but this is looking like damning evidence.

Icon is scum. GL is likely his partner. If not GL it's Korina or possibly cheeky.

But it's probably GL.

Icon/GL scumteam. I was right from the very fucking start with my two scumpools.

If icon is town we lynch love. If love is also town we fucking lose because fuck this game and fuck lurkers.

Pedit - zzz is a bad lynch why is he most likely to flip scum. He is scummy but not most likely to flip scum. Other people are also scummy. And you've been changing your mind too many times with me.
Like even now you say it's probably zz/love but choosing to lynch zz. You say I could flip scum but if love is scum I am conftown. From your pov love is the best lynch..You not wanting to now is crazy.

And what evidence is there than GL is town. I can only personally clear GL by PoE depending on who flips scum. Nothing in his play is particularly townie.

Bujaber/Love is also very much possible.

Buj, explain above sequence of posts?

[BuJaber]

Also those people who are here while Love is at L-1 but not voting are lock clear imo.

No no no no no never play like this.

A hammer while a replacement is catching up is a scumclaim. Not hammering does not mean conftown.

Also if love is scum this point is moot.

And now you're suddenly leading a crusade against me when a replacement has come in. Both you and the replacement not voting for love. How interesting.

Townreading cheeky's sudden activity surge is rediculous.
Townreading her asking for ank's clarification of her read is okay but I don't see how that is a strong indicator. Could easily be faked as scum for town cred.

Look what happened in the thread since ank replaces in man. Love gets townread, ank claims ico was town before his claim (look at me I'm so smart), and cheeky suddenly has motivation to play.

If love is town scumteam is 100% cheeky + ank.

Cheeky trying to shade me because I scumread 3 people who are 'town' in the beginning of Day 1 (only 2 of which are actually confirmed town we don't know for sure that cheeky is yet). Holding me to a standard of accuracy far beyond anything reasonable. Especially considering NM is NM, MM was a lurker, and Ico was scumread by almost everyone until he claimed doc.

Y'all don't like my playstyle it's your problem. These cases on me keep getting weaker and weaker over the course of the game.

Love definitely has to be flipped today. If scum fantastic if town we know exactly who the scum team is. Considering korina and ank's play if love is town that slot is so obv scum it's rediculous.

[BuJaber]

What is unclear about them. The vote on you was because I started getting paranoid while we were talking. Your points didn't all make sense to me. Also because I wanted to sort love/korina but I was not happy with a korina lynch at the time it was still between you and love so I flip flopped.

That giyga's game we had together has messed with my head. I had scumread you there and you turned out to be town. You were pinging me hard in this game but I also didn't want to make the same mistake. Especially when you are one of the few that was engaging with me in this game.

[BuJaber]

Actually go ahead lynch me. Let's see how you avoid getting lynched after that. I'd love to see that oscar winning performance.

The ank replacement looks awfully similar to the way cheeky replaced in too. Replace in, post a lot, defend the leading wagon, scumread the person leading the wagon.

[Iconeum]

Buj, we need to keep our options open here and I fully 100% agree we need love flip. The problem here is we already agreed to this a long time ago, and somewhere you were suddenly fine with not lynching love anymore despite being 100% sure there is scum there. You switched to me.

[Iconeum]

Cheeky can def still be scum this game.

The lynchpoos is actually quite OK:

Love/BV should net us scum in a LOT of the times

[Iconeum]

Alright, time to take a stance

Iconeum, GL, Buj, / TOWN
Cheeky, Korina / NEUTRAL can go either way
Love, Blackvoid / SCUM

[BuJaber]

Okay I think we can gurantee a town win here even if you don't agree with my reads.

2 scum left 2 PR lefts 2 VTs left.

We lynch love. If he were cop he probably would have claimed by now. So either scum or VT.

If town scum has a 50% chance of shooting cop. Hopefully they shoot wrong.
Cop gets either a clear or a guilty. With icon being cleared and a love flip and a cop result the remaining pool becomes really easy to analyze. If they get lucky and shoot cop it's harder but the analysis should still lead to the correct team.

If love is scum it's even easier because we have associatives and scum has only 1/3 chance of shooting cop.