Micro 789 - Alternating 9p - Mafia wins

[CheekyTeeky]

VOTE: Ankamius

[Ankamius]

Shrug

UNVOTE: BuJaber
VOTE: Lovebird

[BlackVoid]

I was almost worried that was a hammer but it's a good thing Iconeum unvoted Lovebird.

I don't understand why you are trying to lynch a townread, Ankamius.

[GreenLiquid]

Holy shit, we're on page 50 now.
Let me get caught up.

[GreenLiquid]

Going to UNVOTE: Lovebird just in case since people are talking about hammers

[Ankamius]

I've already explained it, BlackVoid.

I'm going to avoid turning into asshole-Ank and just leave the game here for today. If I happen to be still alive tomorrow, we'll see where things are at.

[BlackVoid]

I'd buy your reasoning if it was something along the lines of "at least there's a chance Lovebird will flip scum but there's zero chance I will so I'm crossvoting the counterwagon" but your reasoning seemed more along the lines of self-preservation because you'll be able to influence and persuade town tomorrow to somehow lynch scum. But when I ask you to explain or elaborate on anything, you just quote earlier posts that you made where you didn't explain anything. How exactly were you planning to influence us to your way of thinking if you weren't planning on explaining anything in depth?

[BlackVoid]

We need to settle on a lynch tonight. The deadline is tomorrow fairly early and I'd rather not scramble at deadline.

There are possibilities and here's where I'm at.

I don't think BuJaber is mafia. Throughout the game, there's been so much intense scumhunting from his slot. It's true that some of his groups and pairings are weird and don't often make any sense. He's been constantly active and posting and more importantly re-evaluating his reads. He has at various points suspected GreenLiquid, Iconeum, Lovebird, Ank's slot, and CheekyTeeky. He showed a lack of opportunism when my slot was under fire for ZZZX lurking and insisted that scum were among the active players because he was being suspected so much. His assertion that Cheeky and Ank are scum together because they both claim that he's paired with the other is actually the exact same thought process that allowed me to nail two scum in a Mini Normal 1921 a while ago. I really hate that his reaction to me claiming was to insist that counterclaims wait till tomorrow and that I should be lynched tomorrow to check my results. It's also a stretch to believe that he thought I was scum and softed so as to direct the kill onto him and his behavior in fact makes sense as scum who wanted to cc. But it's a small point in light of his generally town play. I also think if were scum, he'd shut up and take that Lovebird lynch and shoot me instead of making an issue out of it. Overall, he's the closest I've gotten to a solid townread in this game. I don't think BuJaber should be lynched now or at any point in the game.

[BlackVoid]

Ankamius's playstyle is super-weird. I don't understand any of his reads that are all based on vague POE and the fact that his POE consisted of me and my strongest townread is pretty bad. I wish I could have gotten him to explain stuff so that I can actually get a read on him. I guess the only thing he could possibly be town for is he has townie frustration, maybe? Christopher's posting was bad as was Korina's. So, he's a viable lynch.

[BlackVoid]

* Sorry, I meant she/her etc for Ankamius.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Ankamius - 2 - lovebird, CheekyTeeky
Lovebird - 1 - Ankamius
CheekyTeeky - 1 - BuJaber

Not Voting - BlackVoid, Iconeum, Greenliquid

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is April 24 at 2:15pm EST

[BlackVoid]

CheekyTeeky is honestly the slot I want to lynch even more than Ankamius. The sudden realization that BuJaber was scum was weird and came out of nowhere. It happened right after Iconeum and I suspected BuJaber. The whole "lynch BuJaber or me" argument came right after I mentioned that in my previous game with Cheeky, she was tunneling me when we were both town. It seemed like she wanted to replicate that meta so I'd dismiss it as just CheekyTeeky tunneling as she did in our previous game. I don't understand the basis for her BuJaber scumread at all. I do think her play towards the end of D1 was very townie though so I'll have to re-read it again before I make a call there. I'm also going to quickly skim a game where she's scum to see what her range is like but according to Rask, it seemed to be rather large. He also predicted that Cheeky would endgame if scum and then got nightkilled. That leads me to believe that is Rask was alive, he would eventually suspect Cheeky even if he didn't while he was alive. Rask kill points mostly towards Cheeky I think because he's the kind of player she wouldn't be able to take to endgame because he'd just vote her for being alive.

[Ankamius]

Alright, I'm going to make one last post just to put into perspective why this game has been immensely frustrating for me:

I'm caught up.

I'm not 100% set on BuJaber/Cheekyteeky but it's much more likely than either being scum with Lovebird for me. I'm satisfied with GreenLiquid from our 1v1 and am mainly waiting to see if he can provide anything that might change things.

BuJaber is like 99% scum, though.

Idk

I'm not really sure how to stop town from losing this game, honestly. Just the fact that both conftown now are scumreading me for really bizarre reasons is about enough to destroy any chance I have to influence a BuJaber lynch.

As annoying as this is, lynching Love might be the only chance for a town win despite being a likely town lynch.

As annoying as this is, lynching Love might be the only chance for a town win despite being a likely town lynch.

How does lynching townie increase the chances of a town win? You'll still be alive and suspected tomorrow. BuJaber tried to set it up as you getting lynched on a Lovebird townflip.

Because there's only two people willing to vote for BuJaber today, there is no time to sway people, and if nothing happens, I will be lynched today and BuJaber will be home free to coast to an easy endgame.

Just look at these four posts for a moment.

1. I have a strong scumread on BuJaber, Cheeky is the most likely partner, I'm townreading GreenLiquid, and Lovebird is a lowish probability scum but still possible.
2. Complaining that I don't have influence to help get BuJaber lynched.
3. Thinking that Lovebird being lynched will be the only way to potentially lynch BuJaber
4. Explaining that only 2 people are willing to vote BuJaber, there isn't time in the day to acquire more, and that the amount of people willing will decrease unless something happens.

Put those together, what do you get?

I have a scumread on BuJaber, but I don't have enough influence to effectively push for a lynch on him. I realize trying to get influence or to push anyways will be futile since there isn't enough time for it and it's more likely that people will want to consolidate, so I look for a way to potentially make it possible tomorrow and come to the conclusion that lynching Lovebird is the only reasonable way it can be done. Lynching a read I find more likely to be town than not is worth the gamble that we might get a scum that I don't see how we would lynch otherwise.

All of these posts are within half a page of each other except for the one containing my reads.

I assume that the pieces can be put together pretty easily just from reading my posts, but then I get responses like this:

As annoying as this is, lynching Love might be the only chance for a town win despite being a likely town lynch.

How does lynching townie increase the chances of a town win? You'll still be alive and suspected tomorrow. BuJaber tried to set it up as you getting lynched on a Lovebird townflip.

This is frustrating because like 80-90% of the questions I've been asked in the past ten pages fall under this trap. I haven't gotten the impression that you've been taking in what I say and trying to build a more complete picture of what I'm thinking, so of course I'm going to start repeating myself and be less willing to want to share my thoughts over time. This is only the latest time you've done this and Icon has been doing the same thing with the townread on him thing after I literally spelled out where it came from.

So go ahead and think whatever of what you believe I'm doing, but I'm going to sit here and watch town throw the game away by giving scum a free pass to the end of the game because I honestly don't see how it's possible to prevent that if this fundamental of a communication flaw is going to effectively silence me for the rest of the game.

[Ankamius]

And that's my attempt to be productive with it. I apologize if I've made it sound malicious.

Anyway, see you day three or after the game ends. Good night.

[BlackVoid]

I have good reasons to townread BuJaber so you could use that as a starting point for discussion. Your entire post is written with the assumption that you are right and need to convince other people. You haven't considered the possibility that BuJaber is townread by me and Icon because he's town and scum might be elsewhere.

[BlackVoid]

I think sticking around tonight might be pro-town in case we need your vote to prevent a no lynch.

[BlackVoid]

If you are town, I'd consider Cheeky/Lovebird team before I consider any team with GreenLiquid in it. Consider the possibility that you are wrong on both BuJaber and Lovebird.

[CheekyTeeky]

That's great BV. I would also rather lynch me today than tomorrow.

I'm going to self-vote as this game is actually beyond stupid now.

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

[CheekyTeeky]

BuJaber has scum claimed. I've reISOd at least 5 times on you guys and shown actions that don't make sense coming from scum. I've opened my tunnel to consider other possibilities and you morons keep being butt hurt about me suspecting each of you


Like actually deuces. Thanks for the epic waste of time.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, you have over 200 posts and we're running out of time - just link me to the posts where you've done all this.

[CheekyTeeky]

I'm done just put me out of my misery.

[BlackVoid]

I also

really

didn't like how you wanted to stall gamesolving until a replacement happened even knowing that once someone steps in, we'll be on a 48 hour clock. You still haven't refuted my logic for why Iconeum was town because he claimed doc. You dodged it many times then claimed that you had scumread me because scum more easily believe claims. That's not even true. Scum know all claims are true. They can find reasons to project belief or disbelief for a variety of reasons. I had get what scum motivation I could have possibly have had to call Icon conf-town and then gamesolve instead of just hanging back and waiting for the replacement. Lovebird actually did the exact same thing and I think she's scummy for it.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, this is funny because I wanted to read a CheekyTeeky scum PT and I didn't make it past the first post without having to copy-paste it here:

Subject: Open 695: Making Friends and Enemies | New Mafia PT

Aw ok any suggestions? I'm going to play naturally, which is pretty active and aggressive. If you look scummy I'm going to call you out. Anyone know any weaknesses of Comm or other players?

Awoo is pretty on to it, they'll like us being proactive.

We also have 2 newbies who will be easy to pocket or defend for town cred when town lynches them for being derpy

.

Considering her defense of Not_Mafia which was based just on the fact that he got wagoned.

[GreenLiquid]

I'm going to do something a little different and just post reactions while I'm catching up. After that I'll dig deeper into what's happened.

Spoiler: stuff

VOTE: BuJaber

No Ico we aren't. We're lynching BuJaber first.

Still not liking this Cheeky turnaround. Is this turn on Bu really just from a quick ISO review?
I really don't like the possibility of Lovebird/Cheeky as that leaves me with zero PoE non-Doc townreads.

I'm the even-night cop.

This was shocking for a moment but I see the reasoning to claim now -- if cop doesn't claim until LyLo it invites a claim war that can result in a cop mislynch. Not sure that's worth surrendering the possibility of mechanical auto-win via clears (where's mhsmith when you need him?) but, eh, I get it.
Also, I'm not the cop.

Okay cop can counter claim tomorrow anyway if BV doesn't get killed.

VOTE: love

This completely undermines the point of a pre-LyLo claim. Are you just not thinking this through or are you planning on CCing in LyLo?
I don't like BuJaber's insistence that tomorrow

might

not be LyLo, so it's fine to hold off on a CC, in the slightest.
I think at this point I can relatively safely rule out a Lovebird/BuJaber team.

It was horrible and frankly insulting to my game breaking analysis the post before.

lol

Interesting how the activity picks up from both Bu/Ico when I push Bu. This is the second time this has happened.

I feel like you have a really poor read of Bu's personality if you think him pushing back against pressure is AI. Unless he's managed to fake an entire personality this game I think his reaction to being pushed is completely predictable.
Why are you shading Ico here? Ico is confirmed doctor at this point.

You have no option to scumread GL or you look bad and Void just claimed cop. I am the only townie left you can scumread without you getting scrutinized for it.

Cheeky was pushing you prior to BV's claim so this argument doesn't really make sense. She's clearly not just settling on you, though I guess we're agreed on not liking that sudden pressure.

Ok cool I'm so confident that today everyone vote me or Bu. This is not TvT.

When I flip lynch Bu.

Why would we ever commit to this when tomorrow could potentially be LyLo?

Ohhhhhh
Okay I get it now but next time please claim earlier in the day. This was too close to lynch.


Okay I am not cop

This reads fake to me. He explained his reasoning for the better part of two pages and yet it's the post you quote here that clues you in?

Alright, regarding Cheeky/Bu 1v1 in general: at this point I would be more likely to vote BuJaber, but I don't like the way Cheeky is framing this as "one of us is scum, so lynch one of us today and lynch the other if they flip town". If there's one time in the game when it makes sense for everyone to reconsider their priors, it's LyLo. If Cheeky is scum here, she could push a BuJaber mislynch and then potentially evade the lynch tomorrow by having everyone re-read and reconsider their reads. Committing to any kind of conditional lynching going into LyLo is almost always a terrible idea.

That said, I only see this being possible in a Cheeky/Lovebird world, because otherwise scum!Cheeky could have easily achieved a Lovebird mislynch by just... not pulling this stunt.

BuJaber's 1120 makes zero sense to me. You're seriously saying that trying to keep open the possibility of a cop CC tomorrow would cause scum to target you instead of

a claimed cop they would know is town??

Also, town!Lovebird most certainly does not point towards scum!Cheeky.

UNVOTE: lovebird

Wow you got him to unvote. Cheeky will actually win this game as scum?

Amazing.

How this game will end up with the lylo of me cheeky and GL:

siren.gif

Why are you certain that we're going to have a me/you/Cheeky LyLo?

Associations in 1133 still don't make any sense to me.
At this point I'm pretty sure this is either obvscum!BuJaber or potentially town!BuJaber getting baited by Cheeky into responding frantically and not making sense. So, as much as I don't like committing to a 1v1 facing the prospect of LyLo... this is likely TvS.

However either of them flipping scum clears the other because I don't think this was SvS. The interaction between korina/love followed by ank/love is so different and kinda weird.

Did you ever case this? I see no especially strong negative association out of Ank/Love.

Ok, these answers are acceptable. Let's shift gears a bit and go a different route: You mentioned before that she was significantly more scummy in day one. What were the top 1-2 points that indicate this?

The main things are the vote hopping and the Rask turnaround -- she hasn't had anything comparable D2, but those two things in conjunction are scummy enough that my read has survived to this point.
Her behavior today has not been as explicitly scummy to be but doesn't contradict the sense I get of her hypothetical scum game -- does that make sense?

Ank is basically the voice of reason on page 48 except I'm not a fan of the SvS speculation in 1197. Unless some shenanigans happen in 3p LyLo I don't see us lynching both of CheekyTeeky and BuJaber and floating the possibility of doing that rubs me the wrong way.
Why would scum!Cheeky and scum!Bu have agreed to do this, but not have executed the plan until being moments away from a mislynch? This is extremely far-fetched.

I'm not 100% set on BuJaber/Cheekyteeky but it's much more likely than either being scum with Lovebird for me.

You seriously can't see Cheeky/Lovebird but you think this is elaborate scum theater? If you're town, please, please, please reconsider this.

Suddenly have a useless slot get replaced with someone who's looking like they're on a trajectory to putting two and two together on who the scumteam is as well as hard defending the designated mislynch of the day is very dangerous to them.

What you're proposing would require significant coordination from the scum team. I can't see it having been an adjustment based on a replacement's reads near the end of the day.

Basically agreed with Cheeky at the bottom of page 49.

As annoying as this is, lynching Love might be the only chance for a town win despite being a likely town lynch.

Yet your vote is on BuJaber and you're not committing in any way to a Lovebird lynch, and you're suggesting a Lovebird lynch while also town reading her?

That's great BV. I would also rather lynch me today than tomorrow.

I'm going to self-vote as this game is actually beyond stupid now.

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

[BlackVoid]

@GreenLiquid, when you get a chance to dig deeper, I think it would be most helpful if you post all of your reads with some reasoning in an order based on how strong those reads are. You've posted a lot of reactions but I'm having trouble figuring out who you think is town and who you think is scum overall.