Open 722: Red Flag [Endgame]

[Archwing]

VOTE: CJ

I'm good to start here.

i'm gonna go finish studying and write a final exam in cosmology. i'll see y'all either tonight or tomorrow. don't do something stupid while i'm gone yeah?

[Fumuki]

OH YEAH ARCH, I DON'T KNOW IF YOU'RE SCUM VOTING IN CJ TO FRAME ME IN D2 IF HE FLIPS TOWN, OR IF A TOWNIE SHEEPING ME BUT...

IT'S LYNCHINGG TIMEEE PEOPLEE

[teacher]

I don't 100% buy your KTS/Fumu or CFJ/CJ associations

This to me is the key, and it locks the game for town. So lets explore it. Tell me what you dont buy, or what undercuts it:

1. KTS/Fumuki team: [/list]

KTS + Fumuki

This is the most troubling part of Fumuki's behavior. Not only does he derail the KTS wagon (

after last night, he has hopped off at L-2 twice

), but does so when his reasons for joining remained facially valid. (see 440, 441). Moreover, his explanation for trying to steer to Hiraki is that it provides info on Kill; but he argues Kill doesnt provide info on Hiraki -- such a one way rachet is implausible, especially if the read is based on how scum would play together (741, 742). Fumuki gives his reasoning in the second links above, but I dont buy them. By the way, given the Kill-Brie above, I have no idea how Fumuki can plausibly suggest Hiraki (someone he accuses for LURKING) has "more associatives" than KTS -- Fumuki making contradictory arguments from a supposedly close-reading player. On the reverse side, KTS pretty routinely towns Fumuki without reasons, only changing during what could well have been a staged fight.

In general, KTS seems to attack anyone who calls Fumuki scum (both now and later in the game); this is mostly focused on teacher, so that might be the result of an independent scumread, but teacher seems like a pretty convenient target (if KTS/Fumuki are scum together, then they must be pretty worried about teacher's reads!).

2. CFJ CeeJay team: Here, nobody has made the case before. And its far less obvious, less guaranteed. For me this is again an indication that the KTS Fumuki team is scummer. AT bottom, its a VCA case. Both seem to be joining wagons later (possibly scum looking for mislynch):

• 509 - Creature
• 810 - Brie

The countercase is that this is weak, and shared votes could be the logic actually convincing them independently. Moreover, their posts show no obvious relationship (but that can be strategic distancing as you suggest).

• Early CFJ scums, votes, and defends his scumread CeeJay early for credible reasons. 54 and 135 and 264. T
• Early CeeJay on the other hand towns CFJ - a common read at that point, possibly pocketing, and not indicative of team either way.
• But then Ceejay seems to go against CFJ 264 - distancing?

*******

After rereading and trying to justify, all I see is a KTS-Fumuki-Brie team for sure. Im down for lynching whoever of (KTS-Fumuki) the board can rally behind, which may well be Fumuki, even though Id prefer Kill. What say the current votes on the Kill wagon? If they flip town though, I sus (whether as a team or independently (CFJ and Ceejay) and insist on lynching one of them.

[teacher]

VOTE: CJ

I'm good to start here.

i'm gonna go finish studying and write a final exam in cosmology. i'll see y'all either tonight or tomorrow. don't do something stupid while i'm gone yeah?

Tell me how Fumuki doesnt provide more info? The lines between him and both Kill and Brie are locked. CeeJay is -- as you note -- less tied. Lynching Fumuki either nabs 1 scum, or provides 2-3 clear suspects for day 2 -- CFJ, CeeJay, and me. Since I know my own alignment, its CFJ and CeeJay for me.

[Fumuki]

If only you guys could compromise that if lynching me today you all would lynch CFJ next...

*sighs*

Anyway, if CJ flips town you can take your shot on us Teacher. Even if we kill "ourselves" one of us with NK, if the other flips town you can all catch the other. There's no drawbacks...

NOW, VOTING TIME.

Spoiler:

let...the...bodies...hit..the..floor

let the...bodies...hit the floor....


LET THE BODIES HIT THE FLOOR

LET THE BODIES HIT THE FLOOOOOOOOOR!!1!!1

By the way, you guys saying about KTS defending me is totally forgetting he did the same thing with northside in the begin and creature later. Is it that hard to understand that he'll protect everyone on his town list be him scum or not?

[Archwing]

Run up fumu and I'll hammer

[Fumuki]

I'm surprised how teacher is tunneling me pretty honestly. It doesn't make much sense.

Then I hurt my reputation that was town read by everyone by stalling TheBrie wagon and afterwards sheep a KTS wagon that is my partner. Do you think I'm that horrible at this game teacher-san?

KTS defends me in the same way that he defended creature, I cornered KTS with his arguments but he still just said "creature is town, never backing away". How is that different?

I honestly think that I'm the player that most pushed different players and brought info about town strategies, what scum can do and all, but still there's people wanting to lynch me and it all began in the wall post of CFJ THAT'S FULL OF HOLES.

What's happening here is pretty much what I call the "over-doing" syndrome. I have a lot of different interactions because I'm by far the most active player in the thread (what is NAI), so you guys are tunneling some interactions I had with different players falling in the fallacy of not pushing harder people that AREN'T REALLY INTERACTING.

That's why scum win so much, town think that people staying in the corner aren't "suspicious" because if they don't have any "interactions, associative or contradictions".

Let's suppose for a moment that CFJ is scum. Would any of you lynch him if I hadn't screamed so much until now how his behavior has

SCUMMY INTENTIONS

?

Check out this game I played Teacher: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=75491
Everyone was town reading one of the scums (GuiltyLion) because he appeared to be "analyzing" posts and no one could ever frame him because he had little interaction with anyone, instead, everyone was tunneling the guy that was saying a lot (Magik) and every so often would raise some suspicious flags.

Sitting on the fence saying that "is analyzing posts" without really pushing it on, casting shade and changing votes when the wagon they are voting begin to stall, is a strong scummy action like no other. CFJ btw only changed to KTS wagon when the recent Brie wagon started to stall, not because he changed his opinions about Brie or KTS.

[Fumuki]

Anyway, we're voting on KTS or TheBrie?

Can't possibly enter in another debate. ALL I WANT FROM NOW ON ARE VOTES AND LYNCHS.

Do you think I'm ridiculous enough to say this if I was planning to hop off the KTS wagon since the begin?

It was the same thing with Creature, I particularly think posts a little emotional are easier to read, when you're stressed you don't measure words. I'm convinced that KTS is town from what he posted at his last wagon.

[Fumuki]

CFJ cast shade by saying that it's "sole a analysis", make the wagons begin to roll and if they stall instead of pushing who he scum reads he gets on the next wagon.

How's that not the scummiest thing here?

[teacher]

Im stepping back for a bit for work. I will wait to see more reaction from other slots. For anyone coming in, I will offer my own biased tl/dr on the last 15 pages if asked. But my bottom line remains that this game feels pretty lock-town regardless of today's lynch/flip as long as it is Kill/Fumuki. Here is why:

1. Kill/Fumuki flip scum: The ties between each other, and Brie, are incontrovertible. D2 scumlynch and win secure.
2. Kill/Fumuki flip town: The wagon must have had scum on it. Since I know my orientation, and the other wagon leaders are (CeeJay CFJ), D2 scumlynch secure.

I dont see a CFJ wagon ever starting. I dont think CeeJay offers the same info at this point. Thus, Im down to Kill/Fumuki. I prefer Kill but will defer to anyone else on leadership.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I'm about to start reading up again but all this talk of 'lynching for information' is hysterically bad.

Lynch CJ if you want to lynch scum.

[callforjudgement]

VOTE: unvote

This is really badly in need of explanation. It's pretty clear that I (and at least teacher) are willing to lynch either TheBrie or KTS and believe that you're trying to stop both wagons, so an

unexplained

unvote on KTS is naturally going to draw suspicion. (I see that a couple of posts later you decided to move to the CJ wagon, but didn't explain why you think CJ is scum or KTS is town.)

Can you explain when you first became suspicious of CJ? You were asking them a large number of questions earlier in the game but didn't really express a scumread. Then suddenly they're in your "d2 lynchpool" in #802. Then by #882/#883 you're basically death-tunnelling them.

CJ is not a slot that I've sorted yet (or been focused on sorting), and normally I'd be quite willing to join the discussion here. Right now, though, I'm pretty sure that this is the counterwagon that scum have decided to push (after trying a few); it might even be on scum, but there's no way I'm letting scum decide the D1 lynch when so many of them are effectively caught. (Fumuki's reaction to my case is effectively panic / an attempt to shift the wagon by any means possible. Why would town do that in that situation?)

By the way, Fumuki's case on me seems to be "the wall is full of holes, CFJ is a good player and their walls would be more reliable / less fabricated if they were town". I agree with the reasoning but disagree with the premise; it's as though you're simply asserting it over and over again in the hope that people will believe it.

cfj is a wolf buddy with thebrie if thebrie is wolf i think 99 percent. he made an awkward vote on thebrie without previously mentionining it all the tol nuch, but he then says "if kts gets bigger ill move there instead." shows he doesnt like where he is and wants to save thebrie implicitly, but if thebrie is town is null this is wrong.

My original vote post on TheBrie was #608, based on #478. I read you as scum in the same post, and made it clear that I found both you and TheBrie scummy (and TheBrie scummier). I didn't have strong reads at that point (it was fairly recently that Creature had elevated himself to obvtown status).

More recently I made a case on you and TheBrie as a scum pair (and Fumuki as a likely third member). I'd be willing to lynch either wagon from that, and made it clear that I'd stay on whichever wagon was larger / more useful. So it shouldn't be surprising that my vote moves around based on a) who other townies think the better lynch is, b) which of the lynches seems realistically possible to push. With 7 votes to lynch and only 9 townies, compromises are needed to drive a scum lynch over the line, which is why it's fairly fortunate that I have strong scumreads on multiple players.

The offer to lynch TheBrie still stands if the town thinks that that's a better lynch. I would also be willing to lynch Fumuki based on his reaction to my case on you and TheBrie, which more or less removes any chances that he's scum.


Just because I'm a bit afraid I'm tunelling, my reads elsewhere: the only active players I don't have at least a moderately strong townread on are KTS/Fumuki (obviously), CJ, and (if you consider them active) Hiraki. (Creature and teacher are both obviously town. I've also seen nothing to shake my townread on BBT, but he hasn't posted recently [PEDIT: OK, now he's posted, but he hasn't said much] and so I haven't had an opportunity to update my read there.) I also have a townlean on Hiraki right now (although he's hardly posting, so it's hard to get more of a read than that). For what it's worth, out of the two recent posts, #963 would be fairly risky for scum (but not impossible), and #910 can be read two ways (as "TheBrie, give me an excuse to unvote you" which would be scummy, or "TheBrie can't even come up with a plausible explanation for me unvoting her" which is more townish; I'm currently leaning towards the latter).

The CJ case is more interesting. There genuinely is something to be concerned about there, e.g. #254 appears to be a list of players sorted by activity (which is one of the laziest possible ways to make reads), and #263 is not a great response to my reads post. (That said, #345 appears to acknowledge that #254 wasn't a traditional reads list.) I can see why people who think I'm scum also think that CJ's scum; most recently, they seem to have more or less been sheeping my reads without much extra analysis, which is something that's reasonable if you think my reads are correct, but looks scummy if you disagree with them. #735 and #847 are the only posts that CJ has made recently that make me think he's likely to be town, with the rest null or scummy. I will say, though, that stating reads broadly agreeing with me/teacher/archwing would be more of a risk for scum than simply lurking and not stating reads at all, and this game still has several lurkers.

(For what it's worth, I have a feeling that the inactive players would be more active if Fumuki weren't intentionally spamming up the thread in order to make it more daunting to read, which is behaviour normally only seen from caught scum who are no longer interested in saving their own slot. We haven't had a whole lot of progress on the last several pages, and if the inactive players stay inactive, it's unlikely we'll make more.)

[callforjudgement]

I'm about to start reading up again but all this talk of 'lynching for information' is hysterically bad.

Lynch CJ if you want to lynch scum.

It's not so much a case for "lynching for information" as "there are multiple players who are highly likely scum, which of these lynches is most likely to go through / most beneficial if it turns out to be wrong?". It's fairly important that town agree on which of the scum should be lynched, as town splitting between the various wagons on scum means that none of them will work.

On that subject, what are your current reads on my three main suspects (TheBrie, KTS, Fumuki)?

[Creature]

Ugh...

Well, thanks for the help.

[Fumuki]

Lynch CJ if you want to lynch scum.

BBT the man.

A wagon on CJ will be deflected later but he's still suspicious enough for us to take a shoot at lynching him today and hitting scum.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I was also meant to comment on the amount of per-flip associations being made - that's absurd. Don't be trying to find scum based on 'x could be scum with y because' and focus on 'x is scum independent of anything else because'

Pre-flip associations is such a bad way of scum hunting. Stop doing it.

On the subject of your 3 main suspects (how the hell is CJ not in there?) I have skimmed the entire game but have only properly digested about 12-15 pages of it. I would have 0 interest in lynching KTS today, he could well be scum but as the game goes on that becomes more and more obvious if he is. If he isn't (which I don't believe he is right now) I think he is one of towns more important players.

Fumuki I wanted to lynch at the start of the game and everyone waved it off - funny how things turn. I COULD support a Fumuki lynch but I would much prefer CJ.

TheBrie I would lynch and was planning on hammering if that wagon hit L-1 whilst I was online.

But seriously, CJ needs rope.

[Creature]

Archwing been towning up.

Though, still paranoid how he immediatelly called me locktown.

[callforjudgement]

I was also meant to comment on the amount of per-flip associations being made - that's absurd. Don't be trying to find scum based on 'x could be scum with y because' and focus on 'x is scum independent of anything else because'

Pre-flip associations is such a bad way of scum hunting. Stop doing it.

There's a pretty strong independent scum case to be made on at least KTS: effectively, he's been claiming strong reads on people without actually reading their posts. I'm a bit long-winded, so I'll just quote teacher's summary of the situation about TheBrie (with links fixed):

thebries pushes are me creature and fumuki

KTS's explanation for 505 dont hold up. Brie was not pushing KTS, she was actively towning him (311, 365, 378, 483, see also 640). Her strongest push at this time was CeeJay (479, 493).

In other words: KTS pushes TheBrie in #505 for scumreading Creature, except that TheBrie was not in fact scumreading Creature (and hadn't been all game). This implies that KTS isn't reading her posts, but scumreads her anyway. That's a fairly strong scumtell regardless of TheBrie's alignment.

[Fumuki]

CFJ, look... DO YOU THINK THAT WHEN I'M SCUM READING YOU I'LL ANSWER TO SUCH LONG WALLS BEING MISSREP?

ONLY BY ANSWERING THE BEGIN AND THE END OF THE WALL YOU ALREADY SEE THE ACCURACY OF WHAT HE SAYS

VOTE: unvote

This is really badly in need of explanation. It's pretty clear that I (and at least teacher) are willing to lynch either TheBrie or KTS and believe that you're trying to stop both wagons,

so an

unexplained

unvote

on KTS is naturally going to draw suspicion. (I see that a couple of posts later you decided to move to the CJ wagon, but didn't explain why you think CJ is scum or KTS is town.)

Yep, UNEXPLAINED, EXACTLY CFJ, YOU'RE TOTALLY READING MY ISO. LOOK AT THIS POST THAT YOU DIDN'T NOTICE HOWEVER

Spoiler:

dont imply im lying about something out of game thats super scummy as a person

and genuiny a super asshole thing to do

You'll get paranoid and say this is simply a scheme from me and KTS when I could just have hammered TheBrie but, serious, I don't see KTS using such a

cheap

trick. If he wanted be convincing he would explain his reads in the first place. Can't see him other than as town now.

KTS said more or less "fuck it guys, just lynch me and afterwards lynch TheBrie" while stressed in RL, he doesn't seems like the kind to use such a cheap trick. He genuine was pissed off and gave up in trying to convince us of his point. HOW DIDN'T I EXPLAIN?

(For what it's worth,

I have a feeling that the inactive players would be more active if Fumuki weren't intentionally spamming up the thread

in order to make it more daunting to read,

which is behaviour normally only seen from caught scum

who are no longer interested in saving their own slot. We haven't had a whole lot of progress on the last several pages, and if the inactive players stay inactive, it's unlikely we'll make more.)

...Then now you're saying that the players are inactive because of me when BBT, Action and pisskop aren't even logging at the site at all? GG CFJ.

About it being "which is behaviour normally only seen from caught scum"...

No, before screaming, I like want to ask...are you serious?

ISN'T IT OBVIOUS FROM

FRUSTRATED TOWNIE

THAT NEEDS TO YELL AGAIN AND AGAIN HOW THIS SETUP WORKS TO TOWN NOT MESS IT UP? IF I WAS SCUM I WOULD BE QUIET IN MY CORNER SINCE THE BEGIN, LAUGHING AT SUCH MESS AND WAITING TO DESTROY TOWN HARD IN D2 AND D3.

Plus,

I had been spamming even when almost everyone was town reading me

. You're again just trying to make a narrative full of holes, fatigue town by such a non straight forward

wall

and I think that you don't want CJ lynch to go through.

[Fumuki]

Fumuki I wanted to lynch at the start of the game and everyone waved it off - funny how things turn.

I COULD support a Fumuki lynch

but I would much prefer CJ.

WTF BBT I THOUGHT WE WERE COMRADES IN THE CJ WAGON

WHAT HAS GONE WRONG BETWEEN US??

[BlueBloodedToffee]

CFJ, what KTS did regarding TheBrie is actually more of a town tell than a scum tell. Cognitive dissonance is much more likely to come from town than scum, scum tend to be more careful with how they formulate their reads and the consistency/reasoning behind them.

I hope there is more than that for why KTS is scum otherwise it's a waste of time.

Let's lynch CJ.

PEdit - Fumuki, I really disliked your early game. Since then, you write/post a lot but you don't actually SAY anything. I find a lot of your comments/questions rather pointless as well.

As long as you're willing to lynch CJ, we're all good

[callforjudgement]

Wait, you're calling #868 a reason to townread KTS?

Accidents happen, V/LAs happen, it's null. If KTS hasn't faked the injury in question – and I'm pretty sure he hasn't – it's unlikely to have much to do with whether he's town or scum. Pointing that fact out does not make him town.

The only way I can read #871 is that you're implying that a) KTS faked the injury and b) he wouldn't fake it as scum because it's too obvious a tactic, thus he must be town. This is a) terrible logic (the reasoning there is so bad it makes my head hurt), and b) based on an incorrect premise (do you automatically assume that all V/LAs are fake?). As KTS pointed out himself in #873, your reasoning here is also incredibly disrespectful; some things, like Real Life difficulties, go beyond the game and town or scum, we should sympathise with them. I might think KTS is scum and that he's faking his reads and his efforts into the game, but I don't think he was faking the injury, and he's entirely correct when telling you not to go down that line of reasoning.

[Fumuki]

PEdit - Fumuki, I really disliked your early game. Since then, you write/post a lot

but you don't actually SAY anything

. I find a lot of your comments/questions rather pointless as well.

I don't want to be cheeky but you realize that I did explain one of the best scum strategies in the game and how to counter it right? I too have been one of the players willing to link games, quotes and other things along with pushing wagons to get reads from slots right?

I'm annoying. I know it. But saying that I've been practically useless or not saying anything useful is rather saddening BBT...

I'm screaming now because I honestly already kinda ran out of steam and am finding less stressing take the game like this. I still don't want to give up, although I don't know if my reads are right...

[callforjudgement]

CFJ, what KTS did regarding TheBrie is actually more of a town tell than a scum tell. Cognitive dissonance is much more likely to come from town than scum, scum tend to be more careful with how they formulate their reads and the consistency/reasoning behind them.

That's not cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance is when your thought process is internally inconsistent, e.g. you're arguing that a player is both town and scum at the same time.

What's happened here is calling someone scum for doing X, when they actually did the opposite of X. That's an entirely different issue, and is either a) intentional misrepresentation, or else b) claiming a strong read on someone when you haven't read any of their posts. I don't see town motivation for either of those.

[Fumuki]

Spoiler:

Wait, you're calling #868 a reason to townread KTS?

Accidents happen, V/LAs happen, it's null. If KTS hasn't faked the injury in question – and I'm pretty sure he hasn't – it's unlikely to have much to do with whether he's town or scum. Pointing that fact out does not make him town.

In spoiler because it's too big:

The only way I can read #871 is that you're implying that a) KTS faked the injury and b) he wouldn't fake it as scum because it's too obvious a tactic, thus he must be town. This is a) terrible logic (the reasoning there is so bad it makes my head hurt), and b) based on an incorrect premise (do you automatically assume that all V/LAs are fake?). As KTS pointed out himself in #873, your reasoning here is also incredibly disrespectful; some things, like Real Life difficulties, go beyond the game and town or scum, we should sympathise with them. I might think KTS is scum and that he's faking his reads and his efforts into the game, but I don't think he was faking the injury, and he's entirely correct when telling you not to go down that line of reasoning.

I'm not town reading him for the injury and I want you to quote when I said that. WTF?

What I'm saying is that he was clearly PISSED OFF and is just

that much

EASIER to read someone that's ANGRY. Look at some content of his post while in that emotional state:

Spoiler:

cant wait for post where ill be congratulated for having correct reads and ppl will be like "wow KTS WAS SO TOWNIE WHY DID HE GET LYNCHED?"

i need to watch the playerlists i join from now on. this shit is so bad

.

teacher is town i think depending on how he progresses but if thebrie is wolf, always lynch cjf next. literally always, then look at cj.

if yoy dont do this, ill be super disappointed from the grave

.

thebries pushes are me creature and fumuki. all of these slots are town, but in thebries readslist, he lists us as uncertains and never commits to a scumread ever.
if youre town and cant figure this shit out

lynch me now so i can go fuck off into the sunset

[/quote]

I did the

same thing

with Creature. KTS is frustrated town in my vision, and I screaming is because I'm getting a little pissed off with saying the same things again and again or answering things like this that you could just

try to deduce

if you're studying so much the game to do these walls CFJ-san.