Mini Normal 2003: donezo

[Nero Cain]

STEALING PAGETOP B4 PANCAKE BURNS


Havo (2)-Not_Mafia, Lovebird
Hopkirk (2)-Tchill13, UnaBombaH
UnaBombaH (2)-ArcAngel9, the worst
ArcAngel9 (1)-Havo

Not Voting: Hopkirk


Deadline for d2 is May 8th @ 1:00 pm or (expired on 2018-05-08 01:10:00) With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch

[the worst]

STEALING PAGETOP B4 PANCAKE BURNS

well done

[UnaBombaH]

After a bit more pondering, I've come even further with the decision that I want Hop lynched today.
Scum!Hop would clear Chill for me, and possibly fit scum!worst as a buddy after all (??).
On the other hand, town!Hop would scuminate Chill and in the contrast clear the worst for me.

I feel comfortable drawing these associations.

[UnaBombaH]

@arc, havo, N_M, Lovebird - I hope you guys catch up and then communicate as clearly as possible who you are willing to vote as lynch today. Even better if you are willing to actually switch your vote, and see where the lines are drawn then.
I think it will help us greatly, if not today, then tomorrow.

[Hopkirk]

@Havo: just ran the stats on you. Based on three previous games, I got 33.8, 29.5, and 29.7. This game gave a 33.5.

On secondary metrics, I got (5.04/1.3), (5.09/1.34), (5.0/1.33) in prior games, and (5.06/1.31) in this one.

Plus doing this involved going through your iso again, which I liked.

Town on Havo.

[Hopkirk]

Reading up then going through (The Worst/Una) very closely.

[UnaBombaH]

I do not know what Hop means with those numbers, but apparently they make someone town, and someone scum..?

[Hopkirk]

They make Havo town.

Not caught up yet

I frequently have a blindspot to people townreading me, but I don’t really like how The Worst is doing it.
There’s pretty objective problems with the claim- scum literally fakeclaimed the exact same thing in a game I had that just finished and it resulted in them being the unanimous/undoubted lynch choice (with Tchill/Havo).
Plus, why would you hammer without any discussion of kill choice if you strong townread me?

Screen kill was clearly mafia.

[Hopkirk]

It’s odd nobody’s actually asked why I chose to shoot at the worst (especially him).

Hop/The Worst and Hop/NM don’t make much sense.
Hop/Worst because hard townreading me as scumpartners would be an autolynch if I flipped scum and going into the day scum Hop/Worst would expect people to have issues with the claim.
Hop/NM because claiming a confirmable role and risking getting lynched when it doesn’t go through would mean I was betting the game on an easily mislynchable partner. Plus he was significant in causing a claim which would be bad there.

1 scum pro me and 1 against me makes good sense.

Not caught up yet (haven’t forgotten that slip either). Currently town is Tchill/Havo/Love with Arc/NM as likely town or possible UNA partners maybeish.

[Hopkirk]

Most to least likely

Una/Arc
Una/Worst
Una/Hop
Una/NM

Hop/Worst
Hop/NM

Love and havo are my TR's.

VOTE: hopkirk

if hop is town Una is scum (due to Una pushing hop) if hop is scum the worst is most likely the partner.

gives us a VERY good direction to go whether flipping town or scum. Of course i think he's scum.

Alternatively, Una is a good vote.
Or maybe the worst actually.

[Hopkirk]

'Of course i think he's scum.'
Not sure where the of course comes from since you were saying I was town before.
Tchill is still town.

[Hopkirk]

Havo isn't a very familiar player to me, so I can't sort them as easily as I feel like I can with you/N_M/Srceen.
I think Havo is the one with the most surprise-potential, but I don't see them as scum as of now..

Maybe I should just succumb to the pressure and we lynch him today, but I assume there's very little to no chance tomorrow isn't a MyLo though?
And I don't want to be alive tomorrow unless we lynch in Chill/Hop/Arc today.

I think this is a is is a perspecive slip.
I'll explain why when I'm not on my phone (definitely tonight).

Tchill/Hop are equally/more lynchable in mylo. Two conf.town flips doesn't change anything if you already buy the reads. If your top two townreads flipped town right now then you'd still scumread me/Tchill.
Presenting it as different seems like a perspective slip since the only change is that you should be more sure of your current thoughts, and more able to follow through on them.

[Havo]

Busy day at work for me, but I will give some more in depth thoughts tonight or tomorrow for sure

[Havo]

@Havo: just ran the stats on you. Based on three previous games, I got 33.8, 29.5, and 29.7. This game gave a 33.5.

On secondary metrics, I got (5.04/1.3), (5.09/1.34), (5.0/1.33) in prior games, and (5.06/1.31) in this one.

Plus doing this involved going through your iso again, which I liked.

Town on Havo.

Good. I can’t wait to pick your brain about this post game.

[Tchill13]

Arcs day 2 is made up of a little sorting/a little banter with the worst.

then a havo vote of course. Puts havo at L-2. I alreeady scum read Arc. This lines up with una/Arc.

I also scum read Una and voted her. why are you ignoring that?

i do believe the height of una's wagon is 2 votes while your vote is there. hardly dangerous. Distancing is a thing.

[Hopkirk]

VOTE: Una

[Tchill13]

basically if hop flips scum the team is

hop/worst

hop isn't gonna claim at L-1 anyways because he already has.

The other option is running una up to L-1 then he possibly fake claiming, causing more confusion and avoiding being the lynch today.

If hop is town the team is

Una/arc

[Tchill13]

@havo and love

what do you think is more likely?

una/arc or hop/worst?

[Hopkirk]

Why not Una/The Worst?

[Hopkirk]

Doesn't really matter who we lynch as long as there's a Love/Havo/Tchill townblock thought tbh.

[Hopkirk]

assuming town has at least something other than me pr wise

[Tchill13]

@hop

im gonna need a better explanation than "he wouldn't hard tr me" for worst not to be scum with you.

we were just arguing about the likelihood its a 2 scum scum team weren't we? Wouldn't scum be less willing to bus because of this?

thats why im stuck. Im either looking at a team thats bussing/distancing or looking at a team thats hard defending.

there's a reason im leaning towards the team thats hard defending. It's because there's probably only 2 scum.

if there's no vig we're looking at 8v2

6v2

4v2 (mylo)

3v2 (assuming no lynch)

at least 3 day phases seems viable to me. 4 if we no lynch or if a protective saves the nk. I think its completely possible for a 2 man scum team even if there is no vig.

[Hopkirk]

Hard defending before anyone attacks me is kind of eh. Setting the tone might have value, but it's auto-lose if people intend to attack me since TW was posting early today.

[UnaBombaH]

Hard defending before anyone attacks me is kind of eh. Setting the tone might have value, but it's auto-lose if people intend to attack me since TW was posting early today.

Um...anyone else see this being posted into the scum-PT?

[UnaBombaH]

Like, before people jump off their seats - I mean that it's easily misinterpretable as a slip in to the wrong thread, not that it necessarily is!