Open 721: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

[ruru]

I guess I feel like the discussion on why there was 1 kill on tw last night could likely leak so much information as to amount to kind of massclaiming, and in massclaim the scummiest players are supposed to go first

Am I being excessive?

[Oxy]

ugh. gross kill.

Finding his reads in his ISO is not fun - I stopped. If someone else wants to scrape those up, that would be cool.

Not going to have much time for this until late tonight,

but on first glance, {UD, Skitter, NM, NSG} looks like a good lynch pool

[ruru]

N_M: "NM ia readable" "So if we can avoid lynching NM after d1 I'd rather do it"
SS: generic lynchpool entry

AP: "conftown Math seems to accept within reason AP is likely town"

UD: "Fmpov Ugly is one tier down from townblock, strong read there"

Oxy: "I am starting to feel that Oxy is getting too towny to be scum!Oxy fwiw"

NSG: nullscum
Mohab: "Mohab was a nullshit read but this post is easily the worst post in the game."

Sunshine: "Probtown: sunsh"

[ruru]

I can't tell whether he was scumreading skitter or just flaming her

[ruru]

Nvm he was strongly townreading her I'm crazy

[ruru]

The N_M entry is interesting I suppose

I'm guessing not many players claim that ability?

[Oxy]

His read list isn't exactly damning to any particular scum team. Even NSG, Sajj, x isn't really getting slammed.

I'm inclined to agree with Pintu on the NK motivation.

TW was one of the ones who basically claimed VT, tho. I'm not sure how likely it was to be picked up, tho. Even though I quoted it multiple times.

[skitter30]

The Worst found dead outside his home this morning, cause of death appears to be poisoned bread.

"I'll always remember the worst as a good customer" Says a bartender at the bar the worst attended the day before "He was a Vanilla Townie and tipped well"

wtf

-------

also open to suggestions as to what conversation could possibly have prompted killing a VT TW over me

Over you *and over draynth too*.

Like I can come up with some explanations but none are immediately obvious and all are WIFOM-y.

I guess what I'm thinking is what were you wrong on that he was right on. The obvious thing is clearly oxy. The thing is that he's a smart dude and I think he's aware that this kill implicates him? And like I don't think he makes this kill?

---

ofrhz(7) ~ Not_Mafia(88), pinturicchio(136), Mathdino(299), Oxy(275), ruru(219), AP(127), the worst(442) -- HAMMER

So math, wrt Oxy, how sure are you he's town? With your reads and town!oxy, this entire wagon on town is town except for NM.

I feel like an IC-led flashwagon on a VT hours before deadline probably contains scum? Math's town. TW's town. I am very, very confidant that ruru is town.

So that leaves NM, oxy/ AP, pin, that being how I'd order them from most-to-least likely to be scum.

----

I think he stayed off the draynth wagon. He was on the math wagon. Idk if those things are signifcant.

[skitter30]

VOTE: NM for now

[Sunshine13]

There is the potential that the vig killed tw, while scum decided to sit back and amuse themselves doing whatever scum do when they're not murdering people in the night. But that would be all kinds of silly.

Anyhow, I have a preliminary over-confident scumpool, but not sure what the plan is for how this information is coming out.

[AP]

Here's a quick tribute for the fallen hero

One duck down and two more to go
He was just vanilla
We still don't like the status quo
But we have to trust Godzilla

Ahem. I;m not interested in the mind games, Math. Why he was shot over anyone is none of my concerns. It was

good

for us to have a VT shot over the PRs and that's all that matters. It certainly wasn't "the worst" thing that could have happened to us.

Now, I'm inclined to actually vote N_M as well, but I first want to analyze the PRs issue.

1- Why do we automatically assume there's no Vig? Why not consider a Vig that holstered or even -maybe- shot the worst? (The latter is far less likely, but a possibility still)
2- Assuming there's no Vig, then we probably have a Tracker in their stead. That should turn out more handy later on.
3- I personally wouldn't expect scum to have picked a JK. That's one powerful town roe of you ask me. But then not everybody thinks the same and scum may have thought a tracker returns guilties while a JK blocking a kill doesn't know if they protected the target or blocked the shooter.

I think the Cop should claim (assuming they did check someone already). They become another IC and their check (assuming it to be a clear) becomes a third. That should narrow down our lynch pool.

A counter point that could be raised though is the Cop outing give scum one less target to worry about being the 3rd (more powerful) PR, but then they [/u]have to[/u] shoot the confirmed townies anyway, so I still say claim if you have a result.

[AP]

There is the potential that the vig killed tw, while scum decided to sit back and amuse themselves doing whatever scum do when they're not murdering people in the night. But that would be all kinds of silly.

Exactly. If scum did pick tracker + vig then they can sit back, let the vig get caught by the tracker, and shoot them both. If the tracker doesn't get the vig, tough luck, but they have been safe from being caught on the opening 2 nights anyway.

[skitter30]

I don't really see scum motivation for not-killing here.

And I have no idea why a vig would shoot tw (especially when people were saying yesterday that a vig should shoot nm; I don't really think a vig holsters here). Given both of these and that there's only the one kill, the most likely explanation is that scum killed tw imo.

Math not being dead is indicative of either imo:

-> a jk exists and scum thinks the jk would be on math and hence didn't want to try to kill him (aside, I think that jk/ic is the dumbest possible combo of roles from a scum pov)

-> math's reads are upside down and they think he'll lead a lot of mislynches

-> some kind of WIFOM

[northsidegal]

It seems the most likely to me that a jailkeeper exists and that draynth is scum.

[skitter30]

That's kinda what I'm thinking atm. That a JK exists, draynth is scum (ie and not the jk), and they were hunting for the JK so that they could kill math the night after they find the jk.

Otherwise I'm having a really, really, really hard time understanding why *draynth* isn't dead.

[Oxy]

@nsg @skitter
This theory assumes that the jk targeted draynth, right?
And in doing so, the jk must have believed draynth was scum, otherwise they were trying to stop vig!Draynth or 1shotcop! Draynth from using their role?

[Oxy]

I dunno, seems unlikely to me...

[Sunshine13]

It would also be vanishingly unlikely that Draynth would be the one performing the kill if he is scum, given the shade he received and the pr claim to get that off him.

Though I guess it depends how you guys round here treat JK. Is it seen more as a roleblock or a protect, or is it individual’s choice?

[skitter30]

More like if there's a jk scum thought draynth wasn't it.

@sunshine: individual's choice, whatever's contextually apropriate

[Sunshine13]

If there’s a jk, it would probably mean there were no scum on math’s wagon as to avoid him outing himself.

Contextually appropriate play would be to protect math, meaning scum would be looking for the jk. You have a 1 in 3 chance of blocking the kill, versus a guarantee of protecting town.

Would scum be silly enough to put an IC and a jk in the game though?

[ruru]

People are more often lynched for being right than killed for being right

Thinking about this,

I feel like ofrhz was himself up until 742, which was admittedly a weird reaction

Later came 1322 and an apparent lack of interest in really clearly explaining his theories. I don't particularly suspect scum manipulation after this point, because he actually looked scummy. So (sorry ofrhz) I don't really care as much who he was scumreading at that point. Regardless of the final wagon, he was already a designated mislynch/vig long before then.

So, what about scum manipulation before that point?

Scummy:
Mohab500, UglyDuck, AP

UD's day 1 voting was actually really questionable now that I look at it, he just parked on ofrhz all day starting with 512 until 1525

1605 and 1606 were his only other votes

I still don't feel like his posts are scum indicative but maybe the voting could be?

[ruru]

If there’s a jk, it would probably mean there were no scum on math’s wagon as to avoid him outing himself.

Is this a townslip

[Sunshine13]

If there’s scum there as no more than one, and they would be in the latter part of the wagon.

[Sunshine13]

Ahaha that would assume scum knew math was ic prior to him outing never mind.

[AP]

If there’s a jk, it would probably mean there were no scum on math’s wagon as to avoid him outing himself.

I'm sorry, but how would they know who is IC anyway? Why won't they want to push Math in hopes he was the JK and had to claim?