Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Almost50]

You can lynch my leg if you want. But I'd prefer you didn't hang me by my neck so that I can keep breathing and speaking.

^LYNCH THIS!

True mutants breathe through their skin.

[Almost50]

Are you left or right footed?

If you exclude all the wrong answers, what's left is the right one.

[Almost50]

I have onions about that

If I had garlic I probably would've given more farts about it.

[Almost50]

Even ignoring my own name here, what's the town benefit here especially if there are 3 scum?

Why would I go for a far less likely scum flip over the 2 I'm most confident of? I'm 99% sure at least one of you is scum, and like 80% sure both of you are by draft spec alone.

[Ircher]

Spoiler: My Reevaluation of the First 200 Posts

First round draft results:
Iconeum 1
the worst 3
Lalendra 5
Ircher 11
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis 413
Mathdino 2
The Janitor 2
Beefster 4
Taly 4
Almost50 8
mutantdevle 8
Ausuka 6
Lovebird 6
brassherald 6

1. 11 by Mathdino:

Okay, this is setup-spec obviously, and no real reads are given here. (Null)

2. 14 by Mathdino: States that "Lovebird is town" and already has a "townbloc" of {MathDino, Lovebird, Saske). -

Okay, Lovebird has made one post so far: voting math and asking why they picked two. Please explain how that makes them town? Also, Saske has not even posted yet, yet somehow, Saske finds their way into Math's townbloc list? How? I guess this all goes back to the draft and the setup spec, but I'm still uncomfortable with the way this reads. (Oh, just noticed--Math said that Saske was town based on the draft, though I'm not convinced that is true based on Saske's position in the draft.) (Null leaning scum)

3. 16 by Beefster: Claims VT and says they picked Tracker in draft; also votes Math for role fishing -

As I've already stated, I'm not a huge fan of the heavy emphasis Math has placed on setup spec early in the game, yet despite that bias, I don't agree with Beefster here that Math is actively role fishing. Bad vote imo, and if you were serious about the claim, I don't know what to say... (

Neutral leaning scum

).

4. 17 by Mathdino: Says vote on Beefster is now policy -

Fair enough. (Null)

5. 21 by Lovebird: "Everyone so far is town" -

Elaborate please? (Null)

6. 23 by The Worst: Says Dino was lurking, votes Beefster, and asks (presumably Beefster) if they got their role pm -

Where does the lurking part come from? Before I get accused of asking that not in good faith, I am serious--no one mentioned lurking, so I don't understand what you are implying here. Not sure what to make of the end of the post tbqh. (Null leaning scum)

7. 33 by Mathdino: "less fluff more analysis" -

More analysis of what? Of the setup? It seems to me that you have already done that for the most part. (Null)

8. 36 through 39 by SIMYK and Mathdino:

Is it just me (probably is), or does this feel a bit on the staged side. (Null)

9. 48 by The Worst: Meta read on Beefster -

Fair enough. (Null leaning town)

10. 50 by The Worst: "Scum rb overrated" -

Try telling that to the normal review group; it was shown in the past that at least for normal games, scum roleblocker games generally had a lower winrate than games without them. That may not be relevant at all to this game though. (Null)

11. 53 by SIMYK: Some concise info on why she thinks Beefster is town -

I find this to be a fair point, but at the same time, what does town!Beefster gain from doing such? Not much... Perhaps NAI at best, but I wouldn't townread Beefster for his 16. (Null leaning town)

12. 70 by SIMYK:

Okay, so SIMYK started the whole Beefster and jailkeeper discussion... (Null)

13. 74 by Almost50: More about Beefster and some questions about why SIMYK is pursuing the town!Beefster read so aggressively:

I agree that the perceived strength of the townread is a bit strong in light of what I've seen so far. That said, I don't consider the read really as odd, and as I stated earlier, I believe strongly in meta, but I will not die by it. In other words, I think it would be better if the thread stops pursuing as many setup/meta-related reads and give a bit more in terms of reads based on the content so far, which I honestly have not seen much of. (Null)

14. 75 by Almost50: Suggests that those who didn't get their picks claim their draft choices -

As others have noted, this is a really bad idea. I include this here however not for that reason alone but rather because I townread the post as I don't think scum would be as inclined to make such a suggestion.

(Neutral leaning town)

15. 82 by Mathdino: Some things about how he setup specs and about Pick Your Power X/Y as well -

This is being nitpickey, but I don't think my earlier assessment of what you've done all game was all that far off tbh. So far, the only thing besides discussing the setup that I have seen you do is advocate a policy lynch (of all things) on Beefster, although the reasoning behind said PL push weren't too bad. Granted also that everyone else doesn't seem to be doing much in terms of generating reads either. (Null leaning scum)

16. 85 by The Worst: "are scum not chosen randomly?" -

I just want to know, exactly what were you thinking when you asked that question. I see you obviously retracted it very quickly, but again, where did the idea that scum were not chosen randomly originate from? Or was it really, truly just a thing you randomly came up with on the spur of the moment? (Null)

17. 92 by Mathdino: Fake advertisement for Pick Your Power X/Y where mod chooses the mafia -

I'm biased against Mathdino, and it shows. But still, people have to understand where I am coming from. You can joke around and all, that's fine. But I get the feeling you are avoiding scumhunting because you can. Like, you were very wordy the first page or 2, but then you kinda vanished only to pop in to post things that are not very helpful in advancing the game state. Is it truly as unfair of me as has been suggested to see you as doing much more setup speccing than scumhunting? (Null)

18. 102 by Mathdino: Another setup spec post, this time about probability of being scum based on draft -

My point exactly... (Null)

19. 105 by Janitor: Complains about 5 pages overnight and unsure of SIMYK being town this early -

I seriously don't like this post, on a gut level. On a logical level, I kinda actually agree with it if I understand the context that Janitor made this post in correctly.

(Neutral Leaning Scum)

20. 111 by Janitor:

Okay, if you were aware of SIMYK's contribution level when you made 105, why did you imply that SIMYK was not really town? Asking why the draft makes SIMYK town is fine, but it really did feel like shade throwing back then, and this post kinda reinforces that sentiment.

(Neutral leaning scum)

21. 115 by SIMYK: "Do you think Mathdino townreading me for what seems like SHAKY reasoning to you is SCUMMY? Or just MISGUIDED?" -

Really like this line of reasoning.

(Neutral leaning town)

22. 118 by Mathdino: "I have 5 reads already" -

I'm not sure I saw 5 reads, especially not 5 substantial reads. You wanted to PL Beefster for his claim though I would suspect you scumread him to some degree there. I feel like you have a pretty confident scumread currently on Janitor. You had a townread on Lovebird.... but I don't think that one counts. I guess you have more substantial townread on SIMYK than your early draft-related read... And that is all that I can think of so far, and that was not 5 reads I just named. That said, I like the points you bring up against Janitor in the rest of your post.

(Neutral leaning town)

23. 120 by Janitor: "As I said I'm more null" -

Umm.... I don't think I actually got the impression you thought SIMYK is null; far from scumread means (at least to me) a townread (even if a weak one). (Null leaning scum)

24. 123 by Mathdino:

This is also a good post. Now you are starting to present some good reads... (Null leaning town)

25. 131 by SIMYK:

On a totally off-topic side-note, I have to look at your name every time to make sure I spell the abbreviation correctly; it would be much easier just to type the first word of your name. Okay, back to something more relevant, I agree with what you state here. (Null)

26. 133 by Mathdino: "You're in luck because lovebird is town" -

Yeah, being 100% serious here, please elaborate on this. If this is based on the draft, please explain why this continues to be such a strong townread for you. If it is not based on the draft, again, please explain why Lovebird is town. (Null)

27. 136 by Janitor: "I don't find Mathdino's actions scummy" -

What I don't understand is why you are being a bit on the fence with things. Do you not possess other, more strong reads? (Null leaning scum)

28. 138 by Iconeum:

"I don't like this, I don't like this..." Okay, I probably (almost certainly) did basically the same thing, but just find it a bit strange for this post to be simply "I don't like these posts" without any particular reasons why. (Null)

29. 158 by SIMYK: "HOWEVER with that vote you arent realy convincing me of that" -

What was wrong with the vote? (Null)

30. 163 by SIMYK: "But what I mean is asking about MATH-SENSEI'S methodology. You EXPLICITYLY said you were NOT townreading and NOT scumreading it, and only found it WEIRD. Have you made any progress in DECIDING what seems more likely to you?" -

Basically sums up where I am at currently with Janitor. (Null leaning town)

31. 165 by Iconeum: Suggests that Math's scumread might have to do with Iconeum being a PR -

Obviously, I cannot say for MathDino... but, I don't think that is the case. Your post definitely wasn't spectacular, and I'll leave it at that. (Null leaning scum)

32. 168 by Iconeum: Saske is strongest townread, scumreading A50 til big post, and Beef's opening was town -

Um... Not sure I follow with that third read... What about it read as town? (Null)

33. 178 by Iconeum: Case on The Janitor -

Yep, I basically agree with this case. (Null leaning town)

34. 196 by Janitor:

Yet another useless post.... (Null leaning scum)

​​

Spoiler: Reads to Post 25

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Lovebird

(-5%) - Two posts so far. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful.

Mathdino

(-10%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here.

The Worst

(-15%) - I really don't like how 23 reads... Maybe I'm just reading in a bit too much there?

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Beefster

(-40%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). It is also early game, so as of right now, this is my strongest read.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

​

Spoiler: Reads to post 75

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Almost50

(+10%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75.

Lovebird

(-5%) - Two posts so far. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful.

Mathdino

(-10%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here.

The Worst

(-25%) - I really don't like how 23 reads... Maybe I'm just reading in a bit too much there? Still really hard to get a read here--he's definitely in the thread, but I cannot really point at him having contributed that much tbh.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+31%) - Not so sure here as I was when I gave reads earlier. Main thing to note is the strength of the townread on Beefster; seems a bit on the strong side. Still, I am in favor of her thinking pattern in general so I will give her the benefit of the doubt.

Beefster

(-40%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). It is also early game, so as of right now, this is my strongest read.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

​

Spoiler: Reads to post 125

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Almost50

(+10%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75.

Lovebird

(-5%) - Two posts so far. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful.

Mathdino

(-5%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here. First 100 posts of the game still seem to coincide with the beliefs that I have expressed regarding this game. 118 is a good post and perhaps the best post (in my opinion) that you've made so far.

The Worst

(-25%) - I really don't like how 23 reads... Maybe I'm just reading in a bit too much there? Still really hard to get a read here--he's definitely in the thread, but I cannot really point at him having contributed that much tbh.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+40%) - Not so sure here as I was when I gave reads earlier. Main thing to note is the strength of the townread on Beefster; seems a bit on the strong side. Still, I am in favor of her thinking pattern in general so I will give her the benefit of the doubt. 115 really strikes me as town tbqh.

Beefster

(-40%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). It is also early game, so as of right now, this is my strongest read.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

The Janitor

(-60%) - First two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111).

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Janitor

[yessiree]

Whoops, also forgot my reads to post 200:
​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Almost50

(+5%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75. Tbqh, not sure if this slot has done much better in terms of reads...

Ausuka

(+2%) - Minor townread because posts have been in general good, but nothing close to a solid read yet here.

Lovebird

(-5%) - Two posts so far. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful.

Mathdino

(0%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here. First 100 posts of the game still seem to coincide with the beliefs that I have expressed regarding this game. 118 is a good post and perhaps the best post (in my opinion) that you've made so far. Now I'm completely mixed here.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+55%) - Not so sure here as I was when I gave reads earlier. Main thing to note is the strength of the townread on Beefster; seems a bit on the strong side. Still, I am in favor of her thinking pattern in general so I will give her the benefit of the doubt. 115 really strikes me as town tbqh. Now the posts are beginning to make me really lean toward town.

Iconeum

(+35%) - Poor initial posts, but not enough to go by. 178 is a decent post though. Not saying that scum can't, but the way Iconeum is pushing the Janitor case registers on the townside to me.

The Worst

(-32%) - I really don't like how 23 reads... Maybe I'm just reading in a bit too much there? Still really hard to get a read here--he's definitely in the thread, but I cannot really point at him having contributed that much tbh. Yeah, definitely not comfortable with this slot at the moment...

Beefster

(-40%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). It is also early game, so as of right now, this is my strongest read.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

The Janitor

(-70%) - First two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111). Subsequent posts continue to not really be good.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Fixed tags.

[mutantdevle]

Cool, so I'm not going to read Ircher's huge ass post. If there's anything significant someone's just going to quote it anyway.

I'll CTRL+F for associations once we get some flips though.

[Ausuka]

UNVOTE:

Mutant, you're voting Ircher. Why won't you read his posts?

[the worst]

6. 23 by The Worst: Says Dino was lurking, votes Beefster, and asks (presumably Beefster) if they got their role pm - Where does the lurking part come from? Before I get accused of asking that not in good faith, I am serious--no one mentioned lurking, so I don't understand what you are implying here. Not sure what to make of the end of the post tbqh. (Null leaning scum)

^ this was a shitpost

math has a tragic history of ppl forgetting to send him role PMs

i accused him of lurking as a response to this:

Edit: when i started typing this post i was the first one here
so jinx guys

:3

[the worst]

Ausuka how is 429wallpostofdeath tonally?

gimme some examples from it you see from town!Ircher or scum!Ircher & explain why? (just a couple are fine)


AND FINALLY .......... does Ircher try this hard + risk this much exposure as scum? not a loaded question

[the worst]

I have a few issues w it but you have more experience playing with him

[Almost50]

I have a few issues w it but you have more experience playing with him

Can you give an eggsamle of such issues?

[Almost50]

*eggsample

[the worst]

after ausuka replies

[mutantdevle]

UNVOTE:

Mutant, you're voting Ircher. Why won't you read his posts?

Why the plural? I'm only not reading one of them because it's blatantly too long. I started reading it and saw that he was simply quoting every other post and describing it as null. What do I gain from reading that? I CTRL+F ed my own name to see if there was anything I need to address and there wasn't. There's nothing in that post (as far as I'm aware) that addresses my stance.

Honestly, when I look at a post like that I just think about Irchers own view:

I mean, scum do gain from being hard to follow because then they can be more width-washy about their reads.

[the worst]

at minimum read his "reads at post ___" progression.

[Mathdino]

tl;dr of ircher's reads list: i am going to summarise why 80% of the posts in this game are null and then give a reads list in which 80% of the players are null

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

It took me an EXTENDED period of MILLISECONDS to realize he was townreading me as well (´⊙o⊙`；)

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

178 is a lot of assumptions without engaging or asking questions. It strikes me as having an accusatory tone.

I believe you missed that with which I was attempting to engage you Σ(-᷅_-᷄๑)

Your comment on 178 was RELATIVELY RELEVANT and is a PERSPICACIOUS POINT - yet, I was interested in what your tendencies towards Iconeum’s posts later on that page were! At the present point, I can see a STRONG town motive to those posts so I wanted to hear what the SCUM perspective of it was in your view so that I can ESTABLISH which divison of my ICONEUM read I should emphasize (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

I do agree that Brass feels LACKING however and would like to see more from him in terms of SCUMHUNTING - tonally I like what I see so far but I need more (✿´ ꒳ ` )

Also can you EXPAND on your Ircher townread?

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

77- Simyk, why do you refer to the Beefster wagon as a "thinly-veiled policy lynch"? It seems like nothing of the sort to me and I have to wonder how you came to that conclusion.

The reasons for scumreading Beefster originated from reasons that could ALTERNATIVELY be answered by "He's just BAD" so to me it's hard to SAY if what he's doing can REALLY be perceived as scummy - hence "policy lynch" (*´ω｀)o

Ausuka-chan why did you UNVOTE ircher? Were his RECENT posts indicative of his TOWN meta I don't really townread them so YEAH? （・□・；）

[mutantdevle]

at minimum read his "reads at post ___" progression.

Done. All that stands out is the poor use of the colour yellow.

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

I've skimmed through the thread, there's more to comment on, such as Beef, but this was the first thing that popped up in me...

okay SO for the RECORD in this PRESENT point in this PRESENT gamestate I do NOT want to present my vote into the Janitor wagon until we are PRESENTED with follow up to this ✧٩(•́⌄•́๑)

I think IF Janitor is JUST an inarticulate townie then whatever INFO DUMP he writes will be the BREAKING POINT in determining his TRUE motivations (〇o〇✿；)

Also it is LAMENTABLE for me to confess but it appears that your spoiler was NOT the follow up I had anticipated? In the future shall we see what you had PLEDGED to PROVIDE (O_O ;;) ?

Irregardless I do feel that that post ESTABLISHES your personality a lot BETTER so YEAH - the reasons you are being scumread seem primarily NOT ALIGNMENT INDICATIVE to me ╭( ･ㅂ･)و

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Is it just me (probably is), or does this feel a bit on the staged side. (Null)

(ಠωಠ)

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

I'm biased against Mathdino, and it shows. But still, people have to understand where I am coming from. You can joke around and all, that's fine. But I get the feeling you are avoiding scumhunting because you can. Like, you were very wordy the first page or 2, but then you kinda vanished only to pop in to post things that are not very helpful in advancing the game state. Is it truly as unfair of me as has been suggested to see you as doing much more setup speccing than scumhunting?

(ಠωಠ)