Open 720: NOIR (GAME OVER)

[MOMOMEN]

As I said. I get your argument. Better to let JJ (or mutant)get a result etc. It isnt worth leaving the confusion alive. It isnt worth dealing with the guilty claim happening tomorrow. It isnt worth the Pintu.

[Oxy]

it's like half this game just gets off on being fucking obstinate. Jesus christ

[Sando]

you remember that wiki page that you linked? In my experience, that page is linked far more often by those it describes, than by those that it doesn't.

Yeah I heard the same quote from Sam Harris.

[Oxy]

what the fuck are you even talking about

[Oxy]

lol, you listen to those fringe "intellectuals"

okay dude. ya, tell me about how your ideas are so edgy and how nobody gets you

[LicketyQuickety]

i know it's crazy but someone look into sando as a replacement for alonzo in the scum reads because rage read

If I COULD convince myself to stick with a read knowing I often change my reads on Scum from Scum to Town, that would probably be a good enough tell in and of itself that Sando is Scum here.

Example from Team Mafia:

viewtopic.php?p=9976711#p9976711

[MOMOMEN]

One sec.

[MOMOMEN]

Maybe Sandos scum. Doubt it. Its between him and Fitz if Alonzo oR NM flip town

[Alonzo]

VOTE: mutantdevle

Agree. Hes definately a maybe.

[Alonzo]

So Is Sando

[Sando]

Ok, let’s do this. So first of all, I think everyone but Quick is onboard with:
Town = Oxy, Pint, Sando, Mom, Quick
Scumpossibles = mutant, JJ, NM, Alonzo, Fitz

For the purposes of this I’m assuming equal scumminess from them all, but that doesn’t really matter, it’s just makes expressing this easier. I’m also assuming we’re never going to adequately read NM, which does matter, but not that much. I’m also assuming we’re right on the 5/5 read, if it’s wrong this all falls down.

This Scum5 is SUUUPER important

. With 5 scumpossibles and 3 scums with a mislynch in hand, we have to lynch both townies to lose, meaning if one is conf!towned or NKd, we win. Scum CANNOT shoot into this 5 if we’re right about scum5.

What should the hider do?

With 10 alive we are 1 mislynch away from mylo, and the hider dying would reduce us to 9 but not change that dynamic. We have 5 scum-targets, so there’s 2 towns in that 5, so we’d have to mislynch both of them to lose. That also means that if we can conf!town one of them, we win, since we can no longer mislynch twice in there.

So the proposal is to have the hider state and hide behind NM, given he’s the hardest person in the scum5 to read, getting a confirmed either way is of benefit. One of five things happen:
• Scum NM has hider jailed – no result
• Scum NM lets hider die behind him – conf scum on NM
• Town NM gets hid behind (no jail) – conf town on NM, assuming scum5 is correct, town wins
• Town NM has hider jailed – no result
• Town NM gets killed – NM and hider die, assuming scum5 is correct, town wins
As you can see, 2 of the 5 result in town wins, so we can assume scum won’t do that. 2 of the 5 are jails, which is fine, we lose nothing and don’t gain nothing. And the last outcome is a conf!scum on the hardest slot to read, that’s a good result for town.

In the case of jailer, we basically ignore NM and keep hiding behind him until we lynch the jailer or we’re in mylo. Yes, we could end up with zero information on NM and in mylo and need to make the choice, but that’s the situation we’re going to end up in not doing that, so we may as well try. In the case of NM being the jailer we’ll definitely end up there, so our best option is to track NM and confirm if he’s the jailer or not, since we’re forcing scum to jail they can’t not give a guilty if NM is the jailer here.

What to do with the tracker claims

Ok we have a claim and a CC, and I’m not going to say anything about the validity of these except to state the obvious that it’s 1 scum and 1 tracker here. We’re in the position of:

1 scum within JJ and mutant (tracker-scumblock)
2 scum within NM/Alonzo/Fitz (2scumblock)

If we lynch correctly within the trackers we win, so we’re going to assume we don’t.
If we mislynch twice we lose, and we’ll never get more info on our first lynch into 2scumblock. So with the above assumption, we have to assume we get the first one right.

So we’re in the position of we’ve lynched one scum in NM/Alonzo/Fitz and lynched both tracker claims, so that’s our next 3 days sorted, we’re just talking the order we do it in now. We can also assume that we haven’t hit the jailer since if we do that we also win.

So we’re left with 2 of Alonzo/Fitz/NM alive and 1 scum in there. If we leave the tracker alive, we have the answer to this 100%, if we lynch the tracker today we don’t.

Lynch tracker today: Oxy dies overnight hider jailed, fake-tracker lynched, Quick dies overnight hider jailed, lynch scum in 2scumblock, Sando dies overnight hider jailed, left in Mylo.
Don’t lynch tracker today: lynch scum in 2scumblock, Oxy dies overnight hider is jailed, lynch tracker, Quick dies overnight hider is jailed, lynch faketracker, Sando dies overnight hider jailed, left in Mylo.

Difference between them, in the Don’t lynch tracker scenario, the tracker tracks NM, who the hider is hiding behind, meaning that by mylo he’s either conftown because hider is still being jailed and the jailer aint NM, or he’s confscum due to being the jailer. Either way, town wins.

[Alonzo]

Quick Maybe. Maybe JJ or Fitz.

what about not maf maybe?

definately Alonzo

[Alonzo]

Sando mate,fantastic Effort post,but it seems you are having more problem placing me?

[Sando]

TLDR: If you accept scum5, only way we lose is a mislynch of tracker and mislynch with our 2 lynches into NM/Alonzo/Fitz. The first lynch into NM/Alonzo/Fitz will always be "blind", the second lynch into it is guaranteed if we lynch tracker tomorrow, if we lynch tracker today it's going to be "blind" as well.

Lynching the tracker tomorrow probably achieves nothing for town, but it is an increased chance and costs us nothing to do, therefore better option.

There's plenty of other actions scum could take than what I've assumed, but with scum5 being true, all of them result in losses. I think I've worked through them all, but posting them just confused an already huge post. Feel free to pose them to me and I'll provide the outcome and why scum cannot do it.

[LicketyQuickety]

I think Sando is probably Town because he is angry at me pressuring him. That's usually a sign someone is Town in my experience.

Momo on the other hand... I would like to see people's actual reasons for why they are Town, because all I can see is that people are TRing that slot because Momo demands it.

I guess I am just posting this for my health at this point.

[Quick]

i know it's crazy but someone look into sando as a replacement for alonzo in the scum reads because rage read

If I COULD convince myself to stick with a read knowing I often change my reads on Scum from Scum to Town, that would probably be a good enough tell in and of itself that Sando is Scum here.

Example from Team Mafia:

viewtopic.php?p=9976711#p9976711

I think Sando is probably Town because he is angry at me pressuring him. That's usually a sign someone is Town in my experience.

Momo on the other hand... I would like to see people's actual reasons for why they are Town, because all I can see is that people are TRing that slot because Momo demands it.

I guess I am just posting this for my health at this point.

Me, Obviously.

[Oxy]

@Not_Mafia
Saved this one just for you bro

[Oxy]

I think Sando is probably Town because he is angry at me pressuring him. That's usually a sign someone is Town in my experience.

Momo on the other hand... I would like to see people's actual reasons for why they are Town, because all I can see is that people are TRing that slot because Momo demands it.

I guess I am just posting this for my health at this point.

you're right

[Oxy]

about sando i meant

[jjh927]

UNVOTE:

Sando strategy makes too much sense

[MOMOMEN]

nope.

[MOMOMEN]

uou know what I dont fucking care wagon Alonzo I just want this game done

[Sando]

Be aware the lynching Alonzo is a choice between him and Fitz where there's at least one scum, maybe two. I prefer Alonzo, but you shouldn't lynch Alonzo without proper thought under either plan.

[jjh927]

I mean yeah I kinda wanted to die and get it out of the way. I feel you there, Eddie.

But this actually does give us more info, in a way we wouldn't get otherwise. It would also be technically beneficial to get the numbers back into odd numbers because if we go into 4 player mylo at some point then we can't no-lynch

VOTE: Alonzo

[MOMOMEN]

doesnt account for scum sando and in a wild universe with town mutant wr autolose because I dont vote you over him ever plus the likely partners are a tiny bit different

mutant is still the right lunch

but I'm hammering Alonzo when the ics switch