Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Impossibear]

Early Kaede+MariaR Interactions: Opposite reaction here too; this is where my MariaR townread started, specifically #35; something about the early miller talks feels way off and I liked the attempt to push discussion away from that.

Jingle is actually in agreement with you on that, and since my first post on the interaction, I have her as pretty null. I like your point about trying to push discussion elsewhere. I do think if both millers are town, scum would benefit greatly from using it to justify votes/lynch options.

Alchemist #63: This is a big one; Alchemist hit a huge scumvibe with this post, although primarily combined with his #55 (which I independently found scummy). Alchemist hasn't felt genuine in these posts at all, I've been getting posturing vibes off these posts if anything.

I think 55 is pretty null... Talk to me about what pinged you on 63. Is it just the speculation re: scum miller or is there something else?

ETL

[ManWithNoName]

Okay so I'm locking in here

Ventriloquist is lockscum
Impossibear is lockscum
MWNN is probably scum

VOTE: Ventriloquist

You're literally like a broken record - how rudimentary is this logic? Impossibear doesn't agree with you so Impossibear must be scum? In what world would a mafia aligned player defend another mafia aligned player so damn hard, knowing that they would both go down together?

MWNN has not given substantial reasons for any of his votes, he has simply changed it several times and given some vague reasoning which never really materialises - once more he always changes his vote back to whatever Ouroboros is going with, despite voting elsewhere briefly (to create the illusion of actually having his own voice) - Given the way in which MWNN and REALMEN instantly rallied around you, it wouldn't surprise me if you're all scum together. Ouroboros 'probably' reading MWNN makes perfect sense here, making it seem like MWNN is on his radar as a bad guy (thus distancing himself) yet never putting him at the top, therefore not having to consider lynching him.

Taking the saying of the best defense is a good offense to a whole new level.

So, your entire scum read of me is because I haven't provided enough information for you? What would you like to know?

Maybe if you engaged in discussion rather than deciding you have found three of the scum already based on interactions, you could improve your reads.

Also, what do you do when I flip town? Say that it just proves your read of Ourobouros not wanting to lynch me because Ouro is scum and fake scum leaning me?

Associatives like this are pretty bullshit reasons to base reads on before flips.

[Ouroboros]

I mean you're the one ruining the game for people so if your mission is to improve the quality of the game the best thing you can do is replace out of it pronto.
Or the fact that people wanted to policy lynch you and your friends don't want to push on you because of fear of reprisal didn't indicate that to you?

[Ouroboros]

Also final and pretty damning point against Ventriloquist: why did he wait so long and post all of his major points at once?
Answer: because he posted simplified versions in scum thread and waited for his teammates to be able to review them and improve them.

[Impossibear]

Wilky and Dunn

Maria and Hebi

Ok, I agree with you 100% on Wilky. Dunnstral I initially thought was town on the surface. Further evaluation notched him at null just because I don't really know. Is that a gut read for you or is there something specific that made you feel that way about him?

I understand your Maria read. Talk to me a bit about hebichan?

ETL

[ManWithNoName]

Also final and pretty damning point against Ventriloquist: why did he wait so long and post all of his major points at once?
Answer: because he posted simplified versions in scum thread and waited for his teammates to be able to review them and improve them.

Going by timestamps, this is pretty believable. All those posts were made between 3:23 to 3:25 EST.

[Impossibear]

I reiterate my strongly worded request that they be lynched tomorrow

regardless of anything else

that happens.

Don't blow investigative powers

if we have any on them, just get rid of them.

What this post tells me is that it doesn't matter if we're town, or if vent is town, all that matters is that vent is lynched and that we are lynched. Who's being obstinate now, honestly?

Vent will probably filp town, I'm going to go ahead and put that down as a hard read. Continuing to clutch onto bad reads despite all evidence to the contrary is ignorant and bad. Attempting to set up future mislynches on bad information and a stubborn read, is ignorant and bad.

All of this is moot at this point because it will be proven before too long and someone will indeed have to eat some crow and reevaluate. I doubt that person has the maturity to apologize or admit when wrong, but a fool can always hope that people will redeem themselves.

ETL

[Ouroboros]

If Ventriloquist doesn't flip scum obviously my scumread on you is null and void and I have to decide what my read is -associatives.

[Nero Cain]

Dunn is gut and slight meta. I also think he's getting sheeped by scum so that kinda spews Dunn town too.

Hebi just seems there...

actually looking at her ISO.

The millers should definitely flavor claim.

I have a feeling there's something wonky with one of them at least?

this seems like a hedge here.

How is hiding behind scum anti town?

You can confirm scum if you hide correctly.

either Hebi is just not paying attention to the game or this is fake derp.

I don't really buy into this "I'm playing my d1 sheep game." I don't feel like a meta dive but this is probs null as they do it as both alignments. Still, the scum motivation in sheeping is there.

397 is an excellent indicator as a Maria buddy though.

[Ouroboros]

I'm not, like, locking MariaR in as town

but can you please stop making reads based on associatives with her

[Ankamius]

Ok, while I go through the rest of these, here's the first bit:

Early Alchemist Posts: A big source of my scumread on Alchemist came from these posts, actually. I'm not liking the way he came out onto the miller point so fast after the game started; I especially do not like his answer to Ghost regarding davesaz' play since I don't remember him ever being particularly active or a big player in the game he's in; him specifically focusing on him not being scum pings in light of that. I really didn't like #21 either.

Ok, so, my impression of Alchemist's first vote was RVS-ish. He'll have to confirm that or not. The fact that he moved it to Ouroboros pretty quickly tells me he wasn't that committed to it in the first place, especially after thinking about it for a bit, which it looks like given the explanation in 9.

Regarding the bit about Dave being active or not, I'm confused because Alchemist's response says that Dave

doesn't

post as much. Did I miss something there?

What didn't you like about 21?

Lemme put all of Alchemist's early posts here before I go into it:

Spoiler:

Hmm...

To trust the miller claim or not? I feel like Dave is one of the few people I could hear that from and be highly inclined to believe him. I've seen him deliberatley withhold his SK kill to look like a 1-shot vig in a game, so claiming Miller as scum doesn't seem like his brand of gambit.

VOTE: Ouroboros

I can always come back to Dave if necessary.

There we go! It's not often I break out this avi.

Miller claims in first post are pretty standard.

VOTE: Alchemist

I know they're standard for when you are actually a Miller. I also know scum can gambit the Miller claim. I'm basing my belief of which this was based on what I know of Dave, which is that he likes to stay under the radar and avoid detection, and a Miller claim does the opposite of staying under the radar.

@hydrae: Signing your posts would be much appreciated.

Consider it done.

Ghost

@Alchemist

- I, personally, have never played with Dave before, so I have to ask, is his preference for staying under the radar something he does regardless of alignment?

@Dave

- Can you attest to this behavioral preference as something you do, regardless of alignment?

He's not going to post as much as most regardless because he's busy a lot irl, but I'm saying that he would claim Miller as scum because it puts all eyes on him and as scum he's the type of person who would hold back on his own killing power to keep himself hidden. I don't think his scum gambits would be of the attention grabbing sort.

Ooh a Miller claim right out of the gates.

I vote to policy it.

If there absolutely has to be a policy lynch on Dave I think it would be better to be on D2. If a vig exists they can shoot Dave tonight and save us the lynch.

A lot of my issue with these posts is that a lot of what he posts doesn't look really necessary.

My issue with Alchemist's posts here is that I don't understand why he would need to post what he has.

I didn't actually catch onto this until I read #18, but I found it really weird that he is putting in the extra effort to explain why he doesn't believe the miller claim is scum.

In #9, he makes a show out of explaining that dave is unlikely to make this kind of play as scum; the extent he goes to is unnecessary for how early it is.
#14 reinforces that; he did get blowback from Ouroboros about that exact same reason, but otherwise he is going to an unusual level of detail in explaining this read when it hasn't come up in any way by any other slot so far.
#18, again, reinforces that. Ghost asked if dave is a low-key player as both town and scum, and alchemist answers that question... right before once again justifying the reason he doesn't think davesaz would do it as scum.

It's a total dissonance from #21, where he's already compromising on having to remove the slot after literally

one

person brought up the idea.

It's most likely not super indicative unless one of them flips scum, but the way alchemist goes about this looks really posturey. #21 is independently scummy outside of it, though.

[Ouroboros]

I understand what you're seeing here and I want to gutread Alchemist scum but meta very strongly indicates that this is his townplay.

[Wraith]

Oh, so it's gonna be one of those games

AKA, literally every game I'm in

You're reading me as scum but you think this whole don't lynch me because I always get lynched card isn't dubious?

Oh, I don't care if I get lynched.

[Impossibear]

Before I leave for the day, I would like to ask for the case on Ventriloquist.. like the actual case.. because as far as I can tell... there hasn't been one, and I'd like to mention that cases made AFTER the suspicion are confirmation-seeking rather than scumhunting. For a wagon that has 6 votes on it, you would think there'd be something concrete there.

ETL

p-edit: Ank - thanks for getting back to me on that. I'm walking out the office right this moment, and probably wont be back to this thread until tomorrow. I will read and respond first thing though.

[Wraith]

Not really sure why but I don't see Impossibear as particularly scummy and I think Ouro's fixation on them right now is unhealthy.

[Ouroboros]

I don't have a fixation on them? They seem to have a fixation on me though.
I make it a 'policy' of lynching people who are very strong players who hard defend scum flips that I feel like ought to have been obvious.

Consider it a mix of burden of proficiencying the both of them and having specific issues with the manner of the defense, feeling like they were deliberately using untruths in the defense, etc. Is it literally impossible that they decided to confbias and derptowntunnel them? No. I don't think that either of them are incompetent enough as scum to ever make a play that I can look to and say yeah this is never going to flip town. But I think that in a bigger picture point of view I have more than enough to go on in terms of thinking that scum ventrilo -> scum bear.

You said we were done talking, I'm done talking, I'm not making a case for your benefit.

[Ankamius]

Early Kaede+MariaR Interactions: Opposite reaction here too; this is where my MariaR townread started, specifically #35; something about the early miller talks feels way off and I liked the attempt to push discussion away from that.

Jingle is actually in agreement with you on that, and since my first post on the interaction, I have her as pretty null. I like your point about trying to push discussion elsewhere. I do think if both millers are town, scum would benefit greatly from using it to justify votes/lynch options.

Alchemist #63: This is a big one; Alchemist hit a huge scumvibe with this post, although primarily combined with his #55 (which I independently found scummy). Alchemist hasn't felt genuine in these posts at all, I've been getting posturing vibes off these posts if anything.

I think 55 is pretty null... Talk to me about what pinged you on 63. Is it just the speculation re: scum miller or is there something else?

ETL

I know you didn't specifically ask for my opinion on it, but I scumread #55 mainly because of the tone shift compared to the davesaz claim. It read like he was completely thrown off by this second miller claim, which is reinforced by #63 where it feels like he's trying to look at it from square one again. It looks like he was prepared for a miller claim by davesaz, but wasn't expecting two.

[Ankamius]

I understand what you're seeing here and I want to gutread Alchemist scum but meta very strongly indicates that this is his townplay.

Can you substantiate this for me?

[Ouroboros]

It's hard to put it clearly into words but they have a hugely different tone and approach to the game as town and scum and it's consistent across all of their like last 15 games.

[Ankamius]

Ok, which games clearly show the difference most easily?

[Wraith]

I don't have a fixation on them? They seem to have a fixation on me though.
I make it a 'policy' of lynching people who are very strong players who hard defend scum flips that I feel like ought to have been obvious.

Consider it a mix of burden of proficiencying the both of them and having specific issues with the manner of the defense, feeling like they were deliberately using untruths in the defense, etc. Is it literally impossible that they decided to confbias and derptowntunnel them? No. I don't think that either of them are incompetent enough as scum to ever make a play that I can look to and say yeah this is never going to flip town. But I think that in a bigger picture point of view I have more than enough to go on in terms of thinking that scum ventrilo -> scum bear.

You said we were done talking, I'm done talking, I'm not making a case for your benefit.

Isn't it extremely reckless to start hardcore finger-pointing at scumbuddies before a flip?

The answer is yes

[Ouroboros]

I don't expect to live to see any flips.

If this flips scum, I think town does well lynching like {Impossibear, MWNN, Jungle if impossibear town,

wow I just realized how many townreads I have

[wilky]

Long-ish post. I make no apologies for that.

The whole beef between the hydra's is tedious, unnecessary and quite frankly a silly argument. Can that stop now before this game reaches a pretty toxic state and becomes unfun for everyone.

Yeah I could get on board with a Vent wagon too

Is it not possible Tchill has a jester role of some sort? Not suggesting an insta win but I don't see how his claim could be helpful to town otherwise.

It wouldn't surprise me if Wilky has done research and is relying on the miller claim because he realises the host has done this before, especially since he chose to highlight that it wasn't far fetched for there to be 2 millers again. As Alchemist said though, this is relying on some pretty niche assumptions so I'm not buying it just yet.

Very suspicious post

Almost forgot, might as well elaborate on why I find this post very suspicious, because why not

He uses some rather

absurd

leaps in logic in two separate cases to paint a narrative picture about these two players, deliberately ignoring Occam's Razor in favor of stirring up WIFOM.

What is more likely? That TChill is running a Jester gambit? Or that TChill is fakeclaiming? TChill's was by far the least believable claim so far, and the most awkward (considering Kaede is mod-confirmed). By bringing up some a longshot possiblity, Vent is indirectly mounting a soft defense of TChill.

Simultaneously, he attempts to cast suspicion on Wilky with a similarly absurd leap. What's more likely? That Wilky is claiming Miller truthfully in a game run by a mod who apparently has a habit of these kinds of setup quirks? Or that Wilky is deliberately playing off mod meta to mount a roundabout fakeclaim gambit, with a claim that is by its nature instantly considered suspect by default?

I don't like that whatsoever. And after we get the VC I might consider switching my vote right now.

Ugh, I can't fully remember why I quoted this post now but I agree with what Wraith is saying here.

I'm not scum reading manwithnoname that hard right now, he seems to be scumhunting, which I don't think many scum players try to play up this early day one.

Scum players don't play up scumhunting on day 1? I disagree., I don't think the explanation for your read is a good one.

He uses some rather absurd leaps in logic in two separate cases to paint a narrative picture about these two players, deliberately ignoring Occam's Razor in favor of stirring up WIFOM.

What is more likely? That TChill is running a Jester gambit? Or that TChill is fakeclaiming? TChill's was by far the least believable claim so far, and the most awkward (considering Kaede is mod-confirmed). By bringing up some a longshot possiblity, Vent is indirectly mounting a soft defense of TChill.

Absurd leaps in logic aren't more likely to come from scum than town. If anything it's the opposite. While you may be correct, I don't think you make a good point here. Town is allowed to soft defend people too, by the way.

Agree with the first part why wouldn't scum give the impression of scumhunting early on?

Can you elaborate on the next part? Why is absurd leaps in logic more likely to come from town?

RC

All I really want to know in light of that is how much weight you put behind the points on him you've already stated.

I might be willing to go back to sheeping, but I want to be sure that it's worth not gunning for a slot that I think is highly likely to flip scum.

If you think that MWNN is scum it should at the very least intrigue you that MWNN followed me on several votes but then got cold feet and waffled when I tried to vote Ventriloquist.

This is interesting.

I got tired of following a town read rather than pursuing my own reads, especially when the Ventriloquist read came down to "He's inactive".

Just because you're obvtown, doesn't mean you are always right, RC. You should have learned that by now.

This is a bad reply.

Like: if you agree with me that Ventriloquist is doing nothing and needs to start doing something, shouldn't you at the very least be enthusiastic about wagoning him to force him to do something?
You're also voting another person on your another blip on the radar list, so idk.

Ankamius is several percentage points above rand and I totally agree with the read that Hebi has so idk what your issue is Dunn.

Again this is interesting, so mwnn sheeped you up until ventriloquist, then backed off saying he wasn't a blip on his radar whilst voting someone else he said the same thing about? I'm too lazy to check if this happened that way but I will check it over the weekend.

I agree Ventriloquist needs to start posting, that being said, I think Realmen's posting has been to the point where he is just avoiding posting anything that can be AI. The last time I voted off of someone that was doing that, I got burned, that's why I am pushing Realmen.

Ventriloquist has enough votes without me to pressure him into voting, anyway.

Like, fuck, this is a large anyway, if I were scum with Ventriloquist, why wouldn't I vote him for the town cred anyway?

Ahh good ole deflection "yes my scumbuddy isn't playing stellar but look at this other player here..."

I can understand the reaction to my posting, by the way. I'm just going to have to be better going forward.

I still think Realmen is the best vote at this point in time. Ventriloquist can be on notice, but Realmen has actually been scummy (I will admit again, amusing) but scummy, overall.

I hate posts like this, the whole I can understand why you feel i'm scum but promise me i'm just not playing great just feels so scummy and is also a subtle AtE.

if i considered sk, i said 14 v 3 v 1, but i doubt sk - 2 millers and hider in closed game with 2 KPN (

as you see, i don't consider either of them gambiting scum in this case - i doubt scum would risk such gambit, if there was only 3 of them)

As to why i doubt 5 maf, there's general rule for numbers in game - town = 3xscum + 1, closest number is 13 v 4, adding 5th scum in closed game requires them to be very weak and town godlike.

As to games with similar numbers - Beneath the Mask was 16 v 5, Divergent was 15 v 4 v 1 and we barely won, Kingdom Hearts was 13 v 4

So when someone gives unrealistic number, i wonder if they have no idea about setups or are scum trying fake townslip

Who are the two players you are referring to in the bolded part?

The whole fake townslip over numbers is a bullshit argument if I have ever seen one. I mean who said there isn't a 5 man scum team? Just because it's slightly out from the norm doesn't mean it might not be the case. I also get a feeling your posting from a perspective that 100% knows the size of the scum team which doesn't go in your favour for my reads.

As for TRs, i never give those, unless someone do or say something that makes them locktown in my eyes, otherwise all my TRs are subject to change

And your scum reads aren't subject to change?

Why hide that information? I think anyone's TRs are always subject to change unless they are mod confirmed, yet you dont see them hiding them.

Then what point of posting townreads, if you going change them later on? If anyone want my TRs, they can just assume people i'm not scumreading are my townreads atm

Same as above there's not a possibility your scum reads will change later?

So, oldtimers, who can confirm that in past it was norm 5 scum in 18p closed games?

Does it really fucking matter? This might be the worst case of shit flinging I have ever seen in a mafia game.

Fine, whatever.

VOTE: Ventriloquist

I don't like being a leader anyway

Wait? Wut? Where did this come from? Weren't you against the vent wagon before now?

he was awkward and scummy tonally

Ick.

I hate tone reads. They're basically like gut reads and a lynch-bait thing to have as the foundation of your scum read on someone.

I don't have a huge amount of scumreads so far this game. One of wilky and tchill is probably scum, MWNN is scummy too and probably more so than wilky at this point. Unsure what to make of the impossibear and jungle thing.

So...? Let me summarize this so that I can understand it....

Wilky is probs scum cause of awkward and "scummy" tone, but TChill might be scum too! But MWNN is scummier than Wilky (and probably TChill?), but I'm still vote sitting on TChill all the

way from

PAGE ONE RVS

!

And then, there's this...

for what it's worth this probably means tchill and mwnn aren't both scum.

Ghost

QFT. I agree with everything in that quote.

[wilky]

I still want to lynch Ram. MWNN comes a close second in here and if MWNN flips scum then I think that implicates ventriloquist.

[Ouroboros]

Okay let's start with


We're town obviously
Kaede town
Nero cain town
Alchemist town
Ankamius town
Wilky town
Ramcius town

davesaz town- maybe negotiable
MariaR I'm leaning town but I respect her enough that until I see what I'm looking for I don't lock this
Tchill feel like scum wouldn't have claimed there but again negotiable

All of these reads are largely unrelated to today's flips