Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]


User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1625 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 6:44 am

Post by Mathdino »

I want to be very clear about something. I'm speaking to everyone directly here.

Your D1 scumread accuracy is not as accurate as the likelihood that Iconeum is scum, and Janitor is scum if not Icon.


Yes, you. Even me. You are worse than stats here, over 7 times out of 10. The fact that no one is townreading Iconeum is damning. He's scum to the point that pre flip associatives are valid and he needs to get lynched tomorrow.

The only cases in which this doesn't apply are:
- Scum specifically coordinated to avoid what every scumteam picks (so Ircher or SIMYK is scum).
- Scum didn't communicate at all their picks. Unlikely for the vast majority of players here.
User avatar
The Janitor
The Janitor
Townie
User avatar
User avatar
The Janitor
Townie
Townie
Posts: 84
Joined: April 26, 2018

Post Post #1626 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 6:46 am

Post by The Janitor »

Hm okay re: that draft analysis by Math.. scum does seem to pick a lot of 1s BUT I don't feel this alone directly makes Iconeum scum; it could have also been an attempt to block scum from a PR, no? How do you distinguish? I'd say it comes down to reads in the end.

Hmm 3 not picked by town is... interesting cough cough.

General idea seems to be 2 low numbers (<= 5) and one higher. Could we assume this is accurate for like 2 of 3 scums this game?

Why does 1!town + 2!town = 11!scum though? If the above is correct you'd assume 11 can be scum anyway. Would 1+2 town make Lalendra, Beef/Mylo, Taly, more suspicious?

pedit: Wait how does town!Eddie = town!Mutant? I'm missing this one? Also by your reasoning town!bird also equals town!Ausuka no?

peditpedit: Yeah everyone here seems active or at least was initially. I guess coordination is safe to assume.
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1627 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 6:51 am

Post by Mathdino »

It does come down to reads. No one is townreading the guy. Im not including the worst because obvtown.
Town rarely tries to block scum from getting a PR. Town usually just wants PRs. I didn't want a PR and I was the first one to claim that reasoning. Iconeum could've faked it.

Yes, we can assume that.

1 and 2 town implies scum tried to play safe. The only numbers I'd call really safe are 11 and 413. No one else went high. Scum rarely goes all middle.

Town Eddie means town mutant because mutant is not pro at scum and Eddie did a huge metadive of mutant. Trust me when I trust him.

Townbird doesn't mean tien Ausuka, what?
User avatar
Taly
Taly
he/him, she/her
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Taly
he/him, she/her
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 10219
Joined: July 26, 2014
Pronoun: he/him, she/her

Post Post #1628 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 6:55 am

Post by Taly »

In post 1621, The Janitor wrote:
In post 1617, Taly wrote:
Janitor
, if you scumlean both
Lalendra
and
Lovebird
, what is your points behind them being scum and who would put a vote on at the moment?
It's ye olde quality vs quantity debate! Lovebird has more posts but Lalendra has like, longer posts... I think both aren't being protown, at the moment. Fact is that Lalendra's odds of being PR are like 75% while its near 0 for Bird. If we gotta lynch and possibly mislynch within these 2, would it be better to get Lovebird?
This is the biggest reason behind my vote for a
Lovebird
lynch as opposed to
Lalendra
.

Lalendra
is putting in an attempt to solve the game, whereas
Lovebird
has been largely absent and at the very least been anti-town in relation to the playerlist.

Lalendra
may also be more likely to carry a PR, and lynching anyone out of the principal of saying
"maybe we have a Universal Backup to make it alright if this flips Town!PR"
is
NOT
an even
FEASIBLE
excuse of lynching a high-placing spot D1 when a
Lovebird
flip could shed light on multiple people's alignments.

One of the
FEW
things we can deduce from the draft this early is that it's logically and virtually near-impossible to assume
{Lovebird, Ausuka, Eddie}
scumteam because of the repetition in numbers, and while this could be all town repeating here, it's less likely when you look at the frequency of this number being used.

I'm pretty confident in both my
Eddie and Ausuka
townread, but I think if we were going to use
ANY
lynch as a means for information post-D1 through flip and draft analysis, it would be
Lovebird
.

This brings me back to the original point
Math
, where does your read on
Ausuka
stem from? Based on your scumreads, do you think an
Ausuka-The Janitor-Iconeum
scumteam is valid? Or are your reads on them
INDEPENDENT
and you're trying to PoE potentially townread scum, and scumread town?

With the frequency of 1 being chosen by scum in the other games
Math, ALONGSIDE
my earlier suspicions on
Iconeum
, I can
UNDERSTAND
an
Iconeum
scum-reality, but I'll re-ISO him and get back to you before I consider switching my vote.

But just so it's clear,
ASIDE
from all the reasons I've stated for thinking
Lovebird
is scum and
Janitor
is town, this is where my heads at for a lynch.
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1629 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 6:59 am

Post by Mathdino »

If we had more time collectively for a jam, the best way we could use the day is by lynching Iconeums partners.

I've already discussed Ausuka. Read my posts before walling.

Lovebird Ausuka Eddie is actually more likely than 2 of them being scum together I think. That's just me tho. And that conclusion is softball.

Ausuka Janitor Iconeum is consistent and likely, yes.
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1630 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:01 am

Post by Mathdino »

I also already discussed how low info lovebird lynch is. Y u no read
If you think it's high info, what conclusions do you draw from either flip?
User avatar
The Janitor
The Janitor
Townie
User avatar
User avatar
The Janitor
Townie
Townie
Posts: 84
Joined: April 26, 2018

Post Post #1631 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:02 am

Post by The Janitor »

In post 1627, Mathdino wrote:Townbird doesn't mean tien Ausuka, what?
Sorry. I meant scum!Bird means town!suka because of the "scum ain't picking the same number" jazz if we can believe you on taht.
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1632 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:04 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 1631, The Janitor wrote:because of the "scum ain't picking the same number" jazz if we can believe you on taht.
Why does anyone think potshots like these are necessary

It's not my fucking
opinion
that scum doesn't pick the same number, it's objectively correct and you all have the same data I do

Like yeah I as scum might try to fuck the draft and bus Janitor to town confirm me...
But then Janitor is still scum and you guys should sheep me then cop me when I don't get nightkilled :lol:
User avatar
The Janitor
The Janitor
Townie
User avatar
User avatar
The Janitor
Townie
Townie
Posts: 84
Joined: April 26, 2018

Post Post #1633 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:06 am

Post by The Janitor »

A scumflip from bird clears Ed and Mutant, a scumflip from me clears you, right? that'd make a scum!bird flip better info. Not sure what exactly a town flip would mean for the both of me and bird... none of our reads suddenly become correct by default.

pedit: bad wording, of course we can believe you in that it happens. What I meant is that if we assume it's true.
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1634 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:11 am

Post by Mathdino »

A scumflip on you gives more associations because you talk more
A scumflip from you is also objectively more likely
Lovebird scum requires Ausuka town and Eddie town and mutant town
You being scum only requires me being town

I'm keeping the likelihoods in mind when running the admittedly subjective lynch ev calculations
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1635 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:12 am

Post by Mathdino »

Tbh your scumflip would probably also lowkey clear Eddie/mutant because that's such a niche scenario where you 3 are literally the scumteam and someone (probably brassherald) comes up with the idea of fucking the draft.
User avatar
The Janitor
The Janitor
Townie
User avatar
User avatar
The Janitor
Townie
Townie
Posts: 84
Joined: April 26, 2018

Post Post #1636 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:16 am

Post by The Janitor »

In post 1634, Mathdino wrote:Lovebird scum requires Ausuka town and Eddie town and mutant town
I see your arguments I guess but you tr 2 of these if I'm not mistaken? Unsure where you stand on Ausuka.

And yes I talk a lot. do you still scumread my latest/later posts? Because right now I'd say Lovebird is not being very protown, less so than me.
User avatar
The Janitor
The Janitor
Townie
User avatar
User avatar
The Janitor
Townie
Townie
Posts: 84
Joined: April 26, 2018

Post Post #1637 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:17 am

Post by The Janitor »

What would a townflip from both me and bird give us? Not much I reckon? Except narrowing down the scumpool if everyone somehow decides scum picked 2 and 6
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1638 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:25 am

Post by Mathdino »

Half the damn game isn't being pro town
You've shaped up, sure, but that doesn't mean I'm gonna policy lynch d1 in a game that likely has 1 or 2 vigs to do that for me
Vig probably plays hero and shoots lovebird w/e

Town flip from you scumfirms Iconeum > Ircher like I said
User avatar
The Janitor
The Janitor
Townie
User avatar
User avatar
The Janitor
Townie
Townie
Posts: 84
Joined: April 26, 2018

Post Post #1639 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:31 am

Post by The Janitor »

Eh. I see your arguments. I'm town obviously from my own perspective etc and I would be against a lynch of myself and for lovebird but it seems you really aren't into that idea. Just promise me I'm getting a new broom and mop if you're responsible for my mislynch.
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1640 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:39 am

Post by Mathdino »

You'll get better than that
I'll mop up the remaining scum based on the draft alone after your mislynch
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1641 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:41 am

Post by Mathdino »

You could even call it a town...
... SWEEP
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1642 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 7:48 am

Post by Mathdino »

VOTE: Lalendra

I own everyone on this wagon if and when it flips green

Choo Choo motherfuckers

Also quick note, there's confirmed a tracker/jk and a neighborizer/vendor in the top 7

Scum neighborizer is hilariously OP
if anyone claims neighborizer it basically ruins the town potential for the role so I'm OK just lynching there
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1643 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 8:02 am

Post by Mathdino »

Myloninja13 scum meta
viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75849&p=10093750#p10093750
He is aware of how his meta looks
His play this game is like a parody of making friends and enemies
Should be n3 vigged ore vengeshot imo
Major lylo liability
User avatar
Ausuka
Ausuka
she/her
Team Mafia Winner

User avatar
User avatar
Ausuka
she/her
Team Mafia Winner

Team Mafia Winner

Posts: 11320
Joined: July 21, 2017
Pronoun: she/her
Location: Coventry, UK

Post Post #1644 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 8:09 am

Post by Ausuka »

I definitely don't like the beef/Mylo slot. If Lovebird wasn't happening we could just lynch that. I feel like the Universal Backup is better if we use it as a shield against scum killing PRs, rather than lynching a PR and having the Universal Backup cover us if we mislynch, so it's actually probably better to lynch outside Lalendra unless I'm missing something.

Not sure how I'm not playing pro-town right now. I made, like, one or two bad posts when I found out I was getting vigged for what I saw as no reason. I even made a big post explaining the reads I have. As for Ircher, I've already given my read on him, and that hasn't changed since then.
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1645 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 8:12 am

Post by Mathdino »

You get vigged 100% of the time on a lovebird townflip
Leaving her alive gives you a ticket to not dying

Tomorrow we're lynching some scum PRs anyway
User avatar
Ircher
Ircher
He / Him / His
What A Grand Idea
User avatar
User avatar
Ircher
He / Him / His
What A Grand Idea
What A Grand Idea
Posts: 15207
Joined: November 9, 2015
Pronoun: He / Him / His
Location: CST/CDT

Post Post #1646 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 8:40 am

Post by Ircher »

In post 1642, Mathdino wrote:VOTE: Lalendra

I own everyone on this wagon if and when it flips green


Choo Choo motherfuckers

Also quick note, there's confirmed a tracker/jk and a neighborizer/vendor in the top 7

Scum neighborizer is hilariously OP
if anyone claims neighborizer it basically ruins the town potential for the role so I'm OK just lynching there
Only if you are not scum.
Links: User Page | GTKAS
Do you have questions, ideas, or feedback for the Scummies? Please pm me!
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1647 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 8:46 am

Post by Mathdino »

if you think i'm scum on lalendra's townflip then that's your fault for being on a town-lalendra, not mine

i'm entirely open to lynching you (as opposed to icon/janitor) tomorrow if you don't get with the program lol
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1648 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 9:18 am

Post by Mathdino »

SHEEPABLE READS/NIGHT ACTIONS

DO WHAT TOWN-DINO WOULD DO OR I'LL HAUNT YOU


Reads/Gamestate Analysis


Blocs:

Okay so we have a few different blocs going on.

1. The gamesolvers who will get nightkilled (in descending order of nightkill probability):
the worst, Mathdino, SIMYK, Eddie Cane.

2. The highly likely townies that will never get nightkilled and will probably not solve the game:
davesaz, Taly, mutantdevle

3. The scum high on the draft that we're too chicken to lynch today:
Iconeum, Lalendra, Ircher

4. The lynchbaity cannon fodder:
The Janitor, Myloninja, Ausuka, Lovebird

Remember,
if you make it to LyLo and are town, scum expects you to lose the game for town.
Don't be a dumb shit in LyLo. Read the game.
This is a townsided setup that towns keep losing because towns are dumb shits.

Remember that if Group 1 fails to deliver scum's heads on silver platters to you AND manages to live to LyLo, there is scum in Group 1. Even though I'm townreading them right now. Do What Mathdino Would Do, don't Do What D1 Mathdino Is Doing.

Everyone in Group 3 gets lynched or mechanically town-cleared this game. No exceptions. I don't care how much you like power roles. They're not all town. They will also not get nightkilled, because scum kills good players, not lynchbaity TPRs.

Reads:

- There is never not scum in {Iconeum, The Janitor, Ircher, SIMYK}.

- mutantdevle is always town if Eddie Cane is town. You could also sheep him on SIMYK.

- I have a secret towntell on Taly. He's town.

- Metadive davesaz before wagoning him later on. He gets scummier the more you wagon him, hilariously. He's probably town but feel free to recheck if he scumclaims by play down the line.

-
the worst is in charge of Doing What Mathdino Would Do after I die. Eddie Cane is in charge of reads generation.
This also means the worst is in charge of sheeping Eddie Cane when appropriate.

Setup/Night Actions Advice:


Massclaiming:

- Massclaim on D3 or D4. Do not be averse to massclaim. Either have a conftown decide the order (realistically this might end up being mutantdevle) or do it from the top down.

- If a kill is ever stopped, massclaim starting from "people who know they were roleblocked" to "Doctors, Roleblockers, and Jailkeepers".

- If there are like 3 or 4 conftown, massclaim the unconfirmeds.

- If you confirm a major suspect as town, might as well massclaim to reevaluate the gamestate.

- Honestly you can probably massclaim when someone gets a guilty on the second mafia. Massclaiming is pro.

Specific roles:

-
Cops
need to check in the following:
Eddie Cane (town Eddie townfirms a few slots by reads alone)
Ircher (supposedly useful in lategame)
The Janitor (high info)
Do NOT check {Lalendra, Mylo, Ausuka, Lovebird}. I'd recommend the worst/SIMYK but they get sorted by the NK.

-
Doctors
, stick to the upper half of the draft. The only decent nightkills in 1-7 are {the worst, Mathdino, SIMYK}.

-
Jailkeepers
, play defencively (don't hero the scum nightkill please) and stick to the lower half. Decent nightkills are {Taly, mutantdevle, Eddie Cane}.

- It's okay to collectively request Doc/JK protection. By doing so, you force scum to make suboptimal nightkill choices if they want to dodge the PRs.

-
Lynch the following on sight unless supertownish
: Vengeful, 1-shot PGO, 1-shot Redirector, 1-shot Commuter (if the original player rarely gets NK'd), Roleblocker, Neighborizer (useless after claiming, higher EV for scum than town). It is +EV to lynch all of these, trust me.

-
Vigs/venges
, shoot in the lynchbaity bloc (Group 4).

-
Trackers
, remember that scum can't action and nightkill on the same night. Do what you will with this.

-
REMEMBER THAT PRs ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE SCUM, ESPECIALLY FURTHER DOWN THE DRAFT
. Scum had knowledge of what their buddies picked!
User avatar
Mathdino
Mathdino
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Mathdino
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 14337
Joined: February 24, 2013
Location: Right Behind You

Post Post #1649 (ISO) » Sun May 13, 2018 9:25 am

Post by Mathdino »

Lovebird and Ausuka
, assuming you two are VTs, can you hypoclaim what role you tried to pick?

If you're actually a PR then just say anything you want and pretend it's that.

Return to “Completed Open Games”