Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Eddie Cane]

secondly, why does scum bus their role cop?

the question is why role cop and not universal backup

i'm actually trying to wrap my brain around why scum would choose role cop in this setup tbh

scum have the advantage in PR hunting :/

Ok humour me. Why does a townie pick role cop in this setup?

Deny to scum?

WHY ARE PEOPLE SO BAD AT SETUP SPEC IN EVERY GAME AHH

1) you bus your rolecop because

you know who the likely prs are and even more likely the strong prs are anyways

2)

SCUM

picks it to deny

TOWN

it. Its good for town. Guilties the Vengeful. Guilties the PGO probably. Guitlies the Roleblocker (biggest one). Guilties the Redirector (other big one). But moreover, denies town UB which is a huge +ev role because its much less obvious than the likely cop and other strong roles and it lets that new strong role hide.

Sigh. UB benefits town a bit more, but RC is still good and Lalendra is newb so I buy it enough to not lynch there unless I see better reasons for why they aren't null.

[Eddie Cane]

Try 18, 19, and 35 for starters.

19 is something. Rest are bleh.

[Mathdino]

dude that's not the goddamn point

i don't care about lalendra picking the RC/UB SLOT

i care about lalendra picking role cop over universal backup

scum goes for universal backup a LOT in this setup

i expect lalendra to be telling the truth about her role right now

[Eddie Cane]

that's not MY point

I don't think Role Cop is a suboptimal pick for either alignment by a large margin and Lalendra is new enough I don't fault it. I don't think she's lying about her role, and I don't think that role makes her scum. Do you disagree?

[Ircher]

@Eddie --> Thoughts on Ausuka?

[Mathdino]

like obviously lalendra isn't lying because she would confscum herself the moment she gets bad results

so as either alignment, she's clearly a role cop

so my question is why scum would ever pick role cop over universal backup

it rules out lalendra as scum with me or TW for sure

Edit: i'm currently trying to find out if we can rule out lalendra as scum
role cop is a suboptimal pick for scum as opposed to universal backup
and it doesn't matter if she's newb because the scumteam coordinated their picks and would've told her what to pick

[Eddie Cane]

so my question is why scum would ever pick role cop over universal backup

UB doesn't really benefit them, hunting the PRs (as in the threatening ones to get a priority list and the less likely one)

I haven't played this setup before

but as sc um I probably do RC over ub

[Eddie Cane]

@Eddie --> Thoughts on Ausuka?

Scummy ish.

That said, I've scumread him hard in our last two games and been wrong so I've been avoiding commenting on him. He told me he was easy to read I still don't get how to though. I'll vote it over a no lynch for sure.

[Ircher]

Mathdino

mutantdevle

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

Ausuka

the worst

davesaz replaced Almost50

Eddie Cane replaced brassherald

Lalendra*

Myloninja13* replaced Beefster*

The Janitor

Lovebird**

Iconeum*
Taly

Ircher

* denotes a pro

[Ircher]

And no, that's not a list of who I think is scum.

[Mathdino]

Iconeum 1 - Let's be honest, probably a Cop/Redirector
the worst 3
Lalendra 5 - Role Cop (/Universal Backup)
Ircher 11
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis 413
Mathdino 2
The Janitor 2
Beefster 4 - VT, Tracker/JK
Taly 4
Almost50 8 - VT, Neighborizer/Fruit Vendor
mutantdevle 8
Ausuka 6 - VT, Neighborizer/Fruit Vendor
Lovebird 6 - VT, Tracker/JK
brassherald 6

i am consistently amused at PYP X/Y games and how incredibly rare it is for all 8 PRs to be distributed

okay so cop should check lalendra, lalendra checks iconeum
if they're scum together we'll find out later on

tracker should probably flip a coin between tracking them (to make sure they actually followed through) and tracking someone who is likely to perform the nightkill

notable that lovebird is unlikely scum with {Ausuka, Eddie Cane, mutantdevle, Myloninja}
the list of people that lovebird can possibly be scum with is shortening fast
to the point where scumreading lovebird in some sense translates to scumreading Mathdino by association

[Mathdino]

yeah PoE is fucking us up the ass

scum is in {Iconeum, Ircher, The Janitor, {Ausuka, Lovebird}}

we can completely nullify the paranoia in the ausuka/lovebird "slots" today and tonight
it also solves their day-long 1v1

lalendra gets a cop check, that solves the lalendra wagon

this is the best solution for all parties

[Eddie Cane]

I don't think Tracker needs to bother. Lalendra will get a Cop / Redirector result, which is a guilty in the latter case, and if its the former then as scum they couldn't do anything bad with their action anyways (aside from performing the nightkill I guess). So, Tracker can track either if they think they'll perform the kill but nothing special vs any other player IMO.

[Ircher]

Question: What if scum have a roleblocker?

[Eddie Cane]

They can stop one of the two but not both, and we probably have a bunch of other PRs anyways to do shit.

[Mathdino]

yep that works beautifully

of the 3 options {Lalendra, Ausuka, Lovebird} we actually want lalendra's result tomorrow

lynch ausuka
vig lovebird if ausuka town. vig myloninja if ausuka scum (trust me you won't regret vigging this slot lol)
copcheck lalendra

all 3 suspects nullified and we can finally get to lynching scum PRs

Edit: @Eddie: The point is that either iCOPeum or Lalendra might perform the nightkill instead of actually doing what we want them to. Doubly true if they're both scum. But yeah I see your point I guess. Of the two, Iconeum's really the only one worth tracking. Iconeum might not actually be a cop and if Lalendra gets an incorrect result she's toast.

[Mathdino]

if either of them gets "no result" that counts as a guilty on either the jailkeeper or the roleblocker

there's confirmed to be a jailkeeper so if someone gets no result we start claiming basically

[Mathdino]

*there's confirmed to be a jailkeeper/tracker slot

i'd be surprised if there wasn't a doctor/roleblocker slot too

[Eddie Cane]

VOTE: Lovebird

coo

[Eddie Cane]

VOTE: ausuka

oops

[Myloninja13]

VOTE: Asuska

[mutantdevle]

Catching up now.

[mutantdevle]

TJEY JEEP VOMIRING LOGIC

MUTANT
EXPLAIN WHY They're scum coming from a sheer analytical logical pov (aka. analyse within scope of playstyle--review Ausuka reads too)

Will do tomorrow (day 2).

[Mathdino]

mutant i kinda need you to catch up to the setup spec/draft pick shit

[mutantdevle]

MATH-SENSEI do you think I am WRONG to think that Janitor's posting is getting STRONGER each post?

No, but that doesn't mean your conclusion that they must be town is correct. Sometimes scum will take criticisms and points against them as ways to improve their current game. If there is anything that Janitor was criticised for, then suddenly started doing the opposite of, then I'd say that's scum indicative.