Open 723: Purgatory! (Hell Phase 3)

[Maruchan]

@mod if absolutely no one votes during a phase, how are lynches determined?

I have been pursuing guidance from trusted experienced mods I am friends with since this was first mentioned. For now I do not have a full answer. In the meantime, boilerplate rules on gaming the system rule 4 applies. This is not a final judgement as i hate going "no cus I'm mod and i sed so", but for now it will sufice.

[Oxy]

Well, that answers that (for now~~)

[RC most awesomest]

So umm, is there something I'm missing or can RC just make an anonymous alt like anyone else?

But yeah I don't understand why playing to win is everyone else's problem.

For the record RC, I really look up to your scum winrate and plan to like study all your games at some point. I don't have anything personal against you (especially not if you're making those posts for an in-game reason), although your posts toward me felt a bit like a personal attack

I want to be able to play with friends and trying to play games anonymously defeats the purpose of playing with friends.

It's not a question of whose problem it is the simple fact that it badly hurts my ability to focus as town and makes the game not fun for me.

I don't want to play with people whose approach to my slot is to treat me like a ticking time bomb regardless of what I do and I don't have the option of avoiding them because so many times the people who end up doing that are people who I have no experience with and have never met before who got that approach to my slot secondhand from other people.

You think that it's not personal because you're just one person trying to play your game but when it's all the time for you you would take it personally too.
It's very easy for you to not understand because you're 'just playing to your wincon' when your assessment of your wincon removes my ability to play the game.

Like you said that I should have assumed Oxy would know of me but I have been extremely low visibility for the last 8 or so months and I was hoping that it would have gone away by now.
Obviously I was wrong in that but I play with newbies in the first place to get away with expectations of me being dragged in from other games.

I think voting with me on UD without interacting at all with my role claim is weird

My vote there is entirely independent of your vote there and I'm not sure what specific engagement you think that I should have with your role claim.

Wrt 95

Do you think that I shouldn't townread you?

No, I'm just wondering where the strength of the read comes from – it's a lot more confident of a read than most other people in the game seem to have and you entered the thread with it.

Despite me townreading (misreading) CoA I almost reevaluated at that point because the whole idea of NSG questioning me townlocking her felt so weird.
She did not question my correct locktowning of her in, for exampe, 1 vig 2 mafia 6 vts. This is universally applicable. People who I townread rarely question my townreads on them.
It's sort of the inverse of people over questioning even reasonable town scumreads on them, town expect to be townread.

Generally when people have a chip on their shoulder about being entitled to being townread and lash out at even reasonable scumreads on them it's a towntell.

You can agree or disagree but I'm 100% right on this and NSG wouldn't have backed me up if she disagreed with my theory regardless of her alignment.

[Maruchan]

rules will be updated to reflect this in an hour and a half (when I get home): if no votes are placed in a phase a random lynch will occur

[Oxy]

rules will be updated to reflect this in an hour and a half (when I get home): if no votes are placed in a phase a random lynch will occur

I think Ruru is probably correct for all "high density" days, such as
(town:scum)
4:3 hell, 3:2 hell, potentially even 2:1 hell
Unless we have solid associations.

Heaven phases are less scum sided since possible heavens are:
6:2, 5:3, 5:1, 4:2, 3:1
But a good argument could be made for 5:3 or 4:2.

Either way, the decision should be made prior to the end of the previous phase because (if I am reading this correctly) unvotes will not create a random lynch situation:

2. Lynches are Complusive Pluraity. No Lynch is not an option. If a Majority is not reached by Deadline, the player with the most votes is Departed. If there is a tie, the player with the earliest last vote will be removed.

[Oxy]

actually, 5:3, 4:2, and 3:1 heaven phases are roughly as scum sided as 4:3, 3:2, and 2:1 hell phases, respectively, because of the higher lynch threshold.

So it might be just as correct to random lynches during that period.

The whole concept of randomly lynching seems pretty boring, tbh.

[RC most awesomest]

Also I think your approach of sending the best players to heaven is dead wrong
strongest players should stay on the ground, I'd send like whoever I read as like weakest >80% town in the game to heaven
nightless games perform far above equity but only because they keep town powerhouses in play, you lynch them it might as well not be nightless

according to awoo equity is 32% which is pretty awful. I would never advocate sending myself to heaven unless it was like super late game

[ruru]

I want to be able to play with friends and trying to play games anonymously defeats the purpose of playing with friends.

It's not a question of whose problem it is the simple fact that it badly hurts my ability to focus as town and makes the game not fun for me.

I don't want to play with people whose approach to my slot is to treat me like a ticking time bomb regardless of what I do and I don't have the option of avoiding them because so many times the people who end up doing that are people who I have no experience with and have never met before who got that approach to my slot secondhand from other people.

I don't think threatening other people to replace out is at all a solution

I know you're a strong player, I would sheep you if I knew you were town, but also the world doesn't revolve around you, the person, and I kinda feel like you're expecting it to here. Like please explain what you want everyone else to do. Asking every town player to just ignore your meta / their wincon is not really an option

You think that it's not personal because you're just one person trying to play your game but when it's all the time for you you would take it personally too.
It's very easy for you to not understand because you're 'just playing to your wincon' when

your assessment of your wincon

removes my ability to play the game.

Do you think my assessment, given the information I have, is wrong?

My vote there is entirely independent of your vote there and I'm not sure what specific engagement you think that I should have with your role claim.

I made some intentionally weird posts that were probably hard to read (which by itself is more beneficial to scum than town), and didn't give a real reason for voting UD. I would kinda expect town to try to sort me in that situation, and try to assess whether or not I would be bussing UD as scum

[ruru]

Also I feel like random lynching in 2:1 can't be good

Like the problem random voting addresses is scum manipulating the game so that the other scum don't get lynched

In 2:1 there's no special advantage that scum have

[RC most awesomest]

It's not about that it's about the fact that I don't want to play with people who have that mentality and I don't think you should find it hard to see why.

I don't think that anyone has ever benefited from random paranoia of me when I was scum: in the two games I was lynched as scum unintentionally last year one was because I replaced an absolute dead slot and the other I had decided that winning the game wasn't worth it and there was serious situational reasoning to scumread me. On the other hand, there's over a dozen games where town massively suffered because people decided to paranoia read me.

Like it might feel like you're doing something but you're not and when you errantly scumread me it makes people take your read less seriously in the future. In basically all the games last year where someone did correctly catch me as scum they had so many instances where they were sure I was scum as town that no one took their read seriously.

If you want to actually have a chance of taking scum games off of me the first thing that you need to learn to do is correctly townread me.

I made some intentionally weird posts that were probably hard to read (which by itself is more beneficial to scum than town), and didn't give a real reason for voting UD. I would kinda expect town to try to sort me in that situation, and try to assess whether or not I would be bussing UD as scum

I have had you as locktown since basically the very beginning of the game. I don't play the game like you seem to think that I do.

[Oxy]

@RC
My thinking was that if we mislynch today (send a town to hell)

Then send a solid scum hunter to heaven (say, town!you), and mislynch again in hell phase 2,

town!you would get control of a lynch. This would put a strong scum hunter in 100% control of that lynch

then town would have another hell phase, where we could either lynch or mislynch, and if we did mislynch

town!you would control another lynch. Rinse and repeat to victory.

I'm not saying it's the best strat, and I definitely wouldn't advocate for it if we lynch correctly today (because JD would be far away) but it would be a way to give a strong scum hunter (or in your case, 2 of them) 100% control over all 3 JD (read:lylo) lynches.

thus not only keeping the strong scum hunter in play, but also dramatically increasing the impact of that player (by not forcing that player to convince others of his reads)

@ruru
I think random is probably about equal to not random in a 2:1 scenario. 3 player lylo is scum sided since both town players have to make a 50/50 call correctly. I'm sure the math doesn't work out to exactly 25% chance for town victory because of the order of votes cast and the content of the game, but I'd have trouble believing it is 50/50.

[RC most awesomest]

If I'm going to heaven I want to basically assign the lynches and heavens for the remainder of the game.

[Oxy]

@ruru Here's a discussion of 3 player lylo math that you might be interested in. As expected, it is scum sided.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=75419

[RC most awesomest]

All of that fails to factor in the fact that particularly in a nightless game your reads are far above rand by that late in the game.

Nightless games continually perform far above EV.

[Oxy]

If I'm going to heaven I want to basically assign the lynches and heavens for the remainder of the game.

Right now it's all hypothetical because I'm not moving my vote unless you stop pushing ruru to replace or die. I was just using you as an example.

All of that fails to factor in the fact that particularly in a nightless game

your reads are far above rand by that late in the game

.

Nightless games continually perform far above EV.

It's almost as if you're not reading the discussion.

I think Ruru is probably correct for all "high density" days, such as
(town:scum)
4:3 hell, 3:2 hell, potentially even 2:1 hell

Unless we have solid associations.

The whole concept of randomly lynching seems pretty boring, tbh.

If we're going to discuss it - and I think it was pretty clear that we were - I wanted to put in a solid framework for the discussion. I feel that I have done so adequately.

[ruru]

3-way lylo is 33% with random voting, but I mean I think we can do better than 33% with non-random voting

It doesn't have to be >50% to be better than random

[ruru]

For example if one player is correctly townread, and votes are otherwise random, it's exactly 50%, a super big improvement

[Oxy]

great. Anyway, my thoughts about what scenarios should even be considered for random voting are out there, as are my thoughts about when those decisions should be made.

I'd be happier if we never used that strategy because I think it's a waste of time and fun, so fine by me.

[RC most awesomest]

My point is that it's never correct to rand here basically

[ruru]

Also I think your approach of sending the best players to heaven is dead wrong
strongest players should stay on the ground, I'd send like whoever I read as like weakest >80% town in the game to heaven
nightless games perform far above equity but only because they keep town powerhouses in play, you lynch them it might as well not be nightless

according to awoo equity is 32% which is pretty awful. I would never advocate sending myself to heaven unless it was like super late game

This was also my first thought of how to use d2. I agree it shouldn't be a strong player who's obvtown

I think it should be either a weak / antitown player who's obvtown or a strong player who's null

I'm leaning toward the latter atm because taking strong players out of the game is also inherently good (e.g. non-perfect play is the only reason why town wins 50% of games in a setup with 40% expected win)

I don't think that anyone has ever benefited from random paranoia of me when I was scum: in the two games I was lynched as scum unintentionally last year one was because I replaced an absolute dead slot and the other I had decided that winning the game wasn't worth it and there was serious situational reasoning to scumread me. On the other hand, there's over a dozen games where town massively suffered because people decided to paranoia read me.

This basically implies that we should stop thinking about your slot today and autolynch you d2, doesn't it?

If you're scum, you're going to talk your way out of a reads based lynch / we weren't going to catch you or convince others of it anyway

If you're town, we don't get to benefit fully from your actual town playing strength because everyone will be too paranoid to sheep your reads (I realize this is a self-fulfilling prophecy for your town game but the point of the game is to play to win, not to make RC happy)

I think this makes you a good heaven candidate

If you want to actually have a chance of taking scum games off of me the first thing that you need to learn to do is correctly townread me.

I have no hope of actually accurately reading you this game and I'm not in denial of that

That's part of why I'm voting UD right now

I have had you as locktown since basically the very beginning of the game. I don't play the game like you seem to think that I do.

Then why is your vote on me? Do you think it's worth policy lynching a locktown player to hell who has admittedly weak reads, and probably won't ever be able to convince others you're scum?

[RC most awesomest]

The last thing I would want to do is policy send someone like myself to heaven because of how bad sending scum to heaven is in this setup

but knowing that I'm town fighting over not being sent to heaven is never worth it here.

[RC most awesomest]

I don't feel like arguing about this while the game is ongoing but your understanding of correct mafia play is almost entirely wrong.

[RC most awesomest]

okay maybe I will go into some theory

so

1) basically your whole approach to me is backwards. I am town far more than I am scum and generally pretty damn effective as town when I'm given my space while my play quality suffers a lot when not given my space. If you're going to play guilty until proven innocent with me you're heavily reducing your winrate in the most common position that this situation would come up, the one where we're both town. furthermore, the question has to be raised how much win equity do you actually think you're giving yourself in the games that I -am- scum, because holistically going through the games where I've had to deal with crap like this it has not damaged my scum winrate. What it has done is ruined a lot of very easy town wins. If you can't read me the assumption shouldn't be that I'm scum, it should be that I'm town. Unless PoE gets to a point where there's no real scumspects outside of me or you have an actual, good reason to believe that I'm scum, convincing yourself to be paranoid of me when the game doesn't demand it is self sabotage. you'll notice all the people that deal with me at all effectively do so by understanding that their read on me is meaningless and let me prove my alignment other ways, ie by some sort of proficiencying my reads or PoEing the game down and only going after me when the rest of the game are townreads. And they still mostly end up being wrong when they go for me. You're trying to treat this like something it's not, if I were scum here you don't realistically win the game any significant proportion of the time and you shouldn't try to scrape the 1% win equity against scum me that you can maybe pull together by deciding to lose most of the games that we're town together. Games where I get mislynched generally end in town being absolutely torn apart and never being able to collect itself, because if I didn't hard protect myself from being mislynched I would be mislynched literally every game.

If you're town, we don't get to benefit fully from your actual town playing strength because everyone will be too paranoid to sheep your reads (I realize this is a self-fulfilling prophecy for your town game but the point of the game is to play to win, not to make RC happy)

This should bother you a lot more than it does. While the outcomes where I'm scum and win are a lot more salient than the ones where you lost because I didn't get to play the game properly, assuming you're town I'm still town 5/8ths of the time and in other setups a fuckton more often than that. (we're town.)

Then why is your vote on me? Do you think it's worth policy lynching a locktown player to hell who has admittedly weak reads, and probably won't ever be able to convince others you're scum?

My attitude basically is that I have confidence in my ability to solve the game once I have space.
Hell lynches are only important in this game so far as it's important that in 9 way, 7 way, or 6 way JD scum goes down, the game is decided by heaven lynches.
Hypothetically if no one else would be interested in going after me and I could swing your lynch I would do it 100% of the time because I think it boosts town WR
that said in this setup I'd much prefer to send you to heaven so that we don't actually have to play together, and if we lose to JD because of you at least that gives an extremely salient message to everyone here about the consequences of the way you're playing. Also I'm pretty sure we wouldn't get to JD, but that may be my overconfidence speaking.

My reads have developed no further than they were before you made the higher win equity to lynch me as either alignment comment.

Sending me to heaven tomorrow is also perfectly viable but like... if I was scum that's the equivalent of saying that I'm going to win anyway so just give me the win, which is the opposite of what you've been trying to do. I don't think that you've thought through your stance as much as you're doing what feels like the right play.

[RC most awesomest]

VOTE: ruru

Send ruru+N_M to hell and we win. Simple.

Not that I'm particularly scumreading AP but why does this read make AP town Oxy?

[RC most awesomest]

we're town
ruru feels vtown
invisibility feels like he did as town
teacher is probably +rand town
alchemist has 1 post
AP has been posting elsewhere but given the way the day went I don't think that's necessarily that indicative
Oxy I'm torn on, read on him is heavily contingent on flips right now
N_M as well, for him it's probably more indicative because i'd have expected him to try to policy lynch me by now if he were town
Duck is ick

I'm going to glory solve the game as Oxy/N_M/Duck with Alchemist interchangeable with anyone until he does stuff
mostly excluding AP because Oxy/AP does not feel like SvS and Oxy has bad associatives with both Duck (random gut townread) and NM (townreading AP for scumreading them)