Open 723: Purgatory! (Hell Phase 3)

[RC most awesomest]

eh

I think AP is actually town
was probably wrong on teacher as well, not really townreading that

[RC most awesomest]

N_M is on V/LA

[RC most awesomest]

nah teacher's town, at least assuming that duck flips scum
AP is still okay but I guess it could be scum

VOTE: duck

[Invisibility]

ok ruru's pretty town now
VOTE: UglyDuck

[AP]

VOTE: N_M

Let's do this for starters.

@N_M: You know I love you, man, but this is a necessity in this setup.

Explanation:

I do think N_M rolled scum here and he's playing (or rather not palying) the game solidly within his scum range.

But let's assume the worst case scenario (which is that I'm wrong and he's town). N_M cannot be relied on in LyLo either. We can neither afford having him alive in here nor in Heaven PT for that purpose.

[AP]

N_M is on V/LA

UNVOTE:

[Oxy]

VOTE: ruru

Send ruru+N_M to hell and we win. Simple.

Not that I'm particularly scumreading AP but why does this read make AP town Oxy?

It's a very light read. We agree on NM, and NM, if town, is an easy slot to keep in the lynch pool. Thus, the read is marginally more likely to come from town.

I don't know how to read the joke posts, so that's what I've got.

[Oxy]

VOTE: ruru

Send ruru+N_M to hell and we win. Simple.

Not that I'm particularly scumreading AP but why does this read make AP town Oxy?

It's a very light read. We agree on NM, and NM, if town, is an easy slot to keep in the lynch pool. Thus, the read is marginally more likely to come from town.

sorry first cup of coffee still going down. I thought I town read NM in this game for a minute LOL.

Basically post should go to here: It's a very light read. We agree on NM, then skip the next part and continue with I don't know how to read the joke posts, so that's what I've got.

[Oxy]

N_M is on V/LA

hmm I didn't realize this

[ruru]

Sending me to heaven tomorrow is also perfectly viable but like... if I was scum that's the equivalent of saying that I'm going to win anyway so just give me the win

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe sending scum to heaven d2 is nearly as gamelosing as you're making it seem. Sending 0 scum to heaven is not the goal of the game. Losing 1 life is at least partially mitigated by it still being a lynch on scum.

I have what I think is a pretty good real-world reason to believe that the winrate difference it makes would be less than the simulated 4% (the 5% number was due to a minor bug), and flipping one player out of seven, who is not obvtown, could easily be worth more than that 4%. And that 4% is the difference between lynching conftown and lynching confscum, not the difference between lynching a townread and lynching a nullread. Flipping a non-obvtown and leaving a strong townread alive also makes PoE much, much easier on later days in a way that random simulation doesn't address.

To put this in perspective, the simulated difference in winrate between lynching town on d1 and lynching scum on d1 is 25%.

Especially if there's a single obvtown player, I don't think it's that bad at all to play in a way that has a decent chance to hit scum d2 by mistake. And it's easier to find one obvtown player than one obvscum player

Also, if we do send scum to heaven, you would be the best scum we can possibly send, because everyone else has a much higher chance of being caught if they stay alive, whereas you have a much higher chance of doing whatever you do that leads to 95% scum win if you stay alive

So, I don't think it's saying that at all. Lynching you d2, in the case that you're scum, reduces theoretical EV by less than 5%. Leaving you alive, if you're scum, reduces practical EV

to

5%

[ruru]

Hmm

I can't imagine forgetting my read on a player as either alignment

I actually have no idea what to make of 231

[teacher]

probably +rand town

Newb to site question: meaning/interp of +rand? has appeared a couple times.

[Oxy]

One thing I've learned from all my recent bad reads is that not being able to imagine one's self doing something does not make that action AI for someone else.

It will be obvious after my flip that it is in my town range to generate new content, in the moment, when asked to expand upon a read.

It's almost certainly a bad habit developed over years of real world experience in being able to rely on my bullshitting skill to justify what I am confident in but haven't actually thought through.

You'll also note that I realized my mistake almost immediately, and gave a flow of consciousness for what and why it happened, so if I am scum, I wasn't shaken by my mistake.

p.edit It means that RC is reading the slot as being more likely to be town than a random slot (which would have a 2/3 chance of being town in this game) So RC is at least 67% confident in that read.

[RC most awesomest]

I think that you're more likely to be town than someone who I have literally no information on, more likely to be town than random

[RC most awesomest]

237 feels town

[AP]

I can't imagine forgetting my read on a player as either alignment

Well, I have NO READ on Oxy, so this is not meant to be in his defence, but it happened to me more than once before. It usually happens when I'm playing with the same player in 2 or 3 games simultaneously.

Now I don't know if this is the case nor do I care to know (i.e. I do not wish to talk about or even search for ongoing games). I'm just saying that it's completely NAI to me.

[Invisibility]

im not good at math but what i am getting from these theory posts is that we should lynch scum today and try to send someone to Heaven that is townie but not very useful, right?

[Maruchan]

Hell Phase 1. You may begin voting for your candidate for HELL. Deadline for a lynch is (expired on 2018-05-20 16:00:00). If a lynch isn't reached, compulsive plurality lynch takes place. Have fun everybody!

Hell Phase 1 Vote Count:
Invisibility - 1 - UglyDuck
teacher - 0 -
Oxy - 0 -
RC most awesomest - 1 - Oxy
Alchemist21 - 0 -

UglyDuck

- 4 - ruru, teacher, RC most awesomest, Invisibility
Not_Mafia - 0 -
AP - 0 -
ruru - 0 -

Not Voting: Alchemist21, Not_Mafia, AP

With 9 Alive, 5 to Lynch,

italicized

name in the list of who is being voted indicates who would be lynched come plurality ruling.

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Ugly Duck

[Oxy]

@mod please replace me

[Oxy]

@mod please replace me

forgot bold

[Maruchan]

Hell Phase 1. You may begin voting for your candidate for HELL. Deadline for a lynch is (expired on 2018-05-20 16:00:00). If a lynch isn't reached, compulsive plurality lynch takes place. Have fun everybody!

Hell Phase 1 Vote Count:
Invisibility - 1 - UglyDuck
teacher - 0 -
Oxy - 0 -
RC most awesomest - 1 - Oxy
Alchemist21 - 0 -

UglyDuck

- 5 - ruru, teacher, RC most awesomest, Invisibility, Not_Mafia
Not_Mafia - 0 -
AP - 0 -
ruru - 0 -

Not Voting: Alchemist21, AP

With 9 Alive, 5 to Lynch,

italicized

name in the list of who is being voted indicates who would be lynched come plurality ruling.

UglyDuck, a

Mafia Goon

, has been sent to HELL!

Searching for a replacement for Oxy

[Maruchan]

Heaven Phase 1 begins!. You may begin voting for your candidate for HEAVEN. Deadline for a lynch is (expired on 2018-05-29 15:45:00). If a lynch isn't reached, compulsive plurality lynch takes place. Have fun everybody!

Heaven Phase 1 Vote Count:
Invisibility - 0 -
teacher - 0 -
Oxy - 0 -
RC most awesomest - 0 -
Alchemist21 - 0 -
Not_Mafia - 0 -
AP - 0 -
ruru - 0 -

Not Voting: Alchemist21, Not_Mafia, AP, Oxy, ruru, teacher, RC most awesomest, Invisibility

With 8 Alive, 5 to Lynch,

italicized

name in the list of who is being voted indicates who would be lynched come plurality ruling.

[AP]

I don't know about your proposed plan of not voting, so I'm not gonna vote but I'm going to discuss the theory

P.S. I somehow was under the impression the setup was flipless (no idea where I got that from).

I think we should send someone like me (a townie who may or may not be good at scum hunting) to Heaven. I will be flipped and you will know I'm town anyway, and it will give someone like RC the chance to stay in the main thread and hopefully send a second scum to Hell.

[Not_Mafia]

We’re not sending anyone off the wagon to heaven