Micro 800-A: Double Day Unlimited [Endgame]

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Post Post #400 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 1:18 am

Post by northsidegal »

Day One, Lynch Two

Votecount 1.15


Pine (2):
Not_Mafia, Cogito Ergo Sum
Katyusha (4):
Not_Mafia, Pine, Plotinus, RedFlavor
RedFlavor (1):
Not_Mafia
Plotinus (1):
Not_Mafia
Not_Mafia (2):
Pine, Cogito Ergo Sum
Dunnstral (2):
Pine, RedFlavor

Not Voting (3):
Katyusha, Dunnstral, Ausuka

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

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(expired on 2018-05-20 01:00:59)


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Post Post #401 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 7:47 am

Post by Katyusha »

In post 398, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:(felt, partly, #324's straying into bad faith argumentation)
see what bothers me about this specific point is that... surely Pine is experienced enough to know it's terrible reasoning and obviously not his place to speak? i felt that post alone was worth a scumclaim even pre-singer flip

at this rate mentally though it's probably better for me to not consider the world where you're the deepwolf pocketing me (which is what i'm like. mostly concerned about, especially because that's my blind spot in this game typically and why I don't get nightkilled even when my reads are otherwise generally >rand or at least decent) since you take me to lylo if at all possible (ie i don't get mislynched today or the next day if pine is town or we lynch someone else who flips town) in which case i'll acknowledge it then

my only issue with casting a vote for pine right now though is that it winds up being the same exact wagon composition that mislynched singer - if n_m is in fact the partner, how does he plan to get even more mislynches after this flip? (he has to get 3, and who is viable after a pine scumflip? I'm definitely not and even become a contender for a nk at that point because I highly doubt anyone would argue we're SvS, Dunn's not as a result, Ausuka's not... He's basically forced to lynch RF and you, and either contest my Dunn meta, pull together an Ausuka!scum case which i anticipate to be an uphill battle, or argue that I'm scum with Pine. None of those are good for scum, which means a Pine/N_M team is just hoping I get mislynched now which with you avidly against the wagon is impossible yet again unless Ausuka changes her opinion?? I have faith in her town game so I'm assuming no on that)

There's also "Pine never busses (buses?) xd" which points away from N_M here and closer to RF or you (or Plot) as the partner but I kind of feel like I have more reasons to townread both of you independently which feels gross. RF's townieness coming from independence and aimlessness in his trajectory (lol @ ces is scum > dunn/katy is the scumteam!!) fwiw but I'm not going to act like that's a hard townread. plot just feels like by play and pine's interactions they're playing the role of the third scum in a pine/x scumteam but i guess it's kind of a serendipitous outcome for plot!scum for ali to flip when e did. ftr i still don't buy that plot never picks scum here if that's not clear but theyre probably town either way

am i worrying too much about finding the second scum? it's obviously possible the singer wagon was all town but i dont know how probable that is (besides scum wanting singer alive for pushing bad reads/as a mislynch candidate after a me-flip or something, I guess?)
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Post Post #402 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 7:47 am

Post by Katyusha »

man i rambled into completely irrelevant stuff huh
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Post Post #403 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 7:48 am

Post by Katyusha »

i dont like having 4 days to figure this out
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Post Post #404 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 8:03 am

Post by Katyusha »

Dunn, this seems like something you'd have a good answer to:

If deadline runs out and we don't get an alternative to me by then, should I self-hammer?

So far I'm at yes because scum just shoot in {CES, Ausuka, Dunn} who are also the people I trust the most to gamesolve after I'm lynched and losing two people from that pool from a forced nl D2 is probably disadvantageous but I think most scumteams literally need my lynch to have a chance at winning
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Post Post #405 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 8:05 am

Post by Katyusha »

I'm probably trifling over details too much though

VOTE: Pine

this always flips scum as far as I'm concerned but I have nothing on the partner which I don't like and I'd honestly rather lynch there unless it's Plot.

I'm ruling out RF/N_M as the team for the record
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Post Post #406 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 8:14 am

Post by Katyusha »

In post 329, Katyusha wrote:
In post 307, Pine wrote:Shit.

Singer's looking Town. Irritated with myself that I almost pulled the trigger earlier today.

Hammer threat rescinded, pending discussion with Mastina.
what's the thought process here

she feels like a constant to me, like literally nothing changed about my read on her from the last page or so
last post in this spamset but ^this^ is still also scummy as fuck

why would Pine?? even consider hammering singer in the first place if he was super confident that I'm scum? It's obviously the mislynch my slot needs if I'm scum and my trajectory on Singer was blatantly not of a partner's, like literally nothing about this adds up and I honestly think it was just done for show before singer flipped town. I thought it was a last ditch attempt to save a buddy or distance since neither the reasoning to scumread her or the presumable reasoning to townread her reaction made sense but whatever
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Post Post #407 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 8:36 am

Post by Dunnstral »

I think Plotinus is scum here and they're not really engaging with the game and I don't see why he can't choose scum.

VOTE: Pine
VOTE: Plotinus
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Post Post #408 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 8:36 am

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 404, Katyusha wrote:Dunn, this seems like something you'd have a good answer to:

If deadline runs out and we don't get an alternative to me by then, should I self-hammer?

So far I'm at yes because scum just shoot in {CES, Ausuka, Dunn} who are also the people I trust the most to gamesolve after I'm lynched and losing two people from that pool from a forced nl D2 is probably disadvantageous but I think most scumteams literally need my lynch to have a chance at winning
No, somebody else will hammer something
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Post Post #409 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 8:58 am

Post by Ausuka »

I'm rereading the thread and like I'm not really feeling a Katy lynch? Most of the stuff she says about the early Pine wagon I agree with.
In post 112, Pine wrote: Your tone and behavior around my wagon suggests you know this is an error, which you don't want to be associated with, but are happy to passively encourage.
I mean, I don't see this in her play at all, and I don't get why Katy!scum is afraid of pushing a mislynch on page 5.
In post 115, Pine wrote:
In post 108, Katyusha wrote:If the above it’s true it might actually be Pine/CES

You feel legit so far, Dunn and ausuka are obvtown, singer is townie, rf is apparently town by meta i’ll trust in

So sure after like last minute reads and some discussion i’m no longer opposing this
And then you said this.

You're playing both sides without actually committing.
Not seeing this point either; Katy started by defending you, then changed her mind. I don't see that as "playing both sides" nor do I see that as something that town can't do?
In post 152, Pine wrote: For example, she keeps going on and on about how this is scum!Pine just attacking her without reason or explanation...yet I don't see a vote on me.
this is the only point on cogdis that I saw being brought up, and, like, I don't see why it's scummy for Katy to not want to hammer you so early on, nor do I think scum!Katy would be scared of voting you here.

this feels towny to me? like, it does genuinely feel like Katy and Lycan have been talking behind the scenes trying to solve the game. The part where she says "He vibed with most of what he was doing and he'd vote in the same places at the same time as him." about CES resonates with me in particular because I had the same thought process w/ CES early on and that's why I had him as town originally.

feels kinda opportunistic? like he wants to grab a singer mislynch and then get katy as well. I don't get his position of thinking Katy/Singer are scum together; that's one scumteam I wouldn't really have ever considered.

but idk though. There are a few things that give me doubts about katy. Like, she's mentioned before that she enjoys playing scum a lot more than town and she's definitely been very active here, although that's also explained by the fact that this is a more serious and effort-based game than normal due to the playerlist and the team nature of the game. If any of {pine, mastina} {Alisae, plotinus} are town I think the odds are quite low that they'd both be wrong about katy. But I guess I'm just not really seeing it? a lot of her stuff definitely seems like genuine solving. I've already given the example of the lycan post, and actually genuinely does feel like she's trying to sort through the games and prove Dunn is town. The obvious answer based on this would be pine/plot but I'm definitely not convinced it's going to be that easy.
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Post Post #410 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 8:59 am

Post by Ausuka »

Plotinus strikes me as a bad lynch because I don't think he's ever scum without Pine also being scum. Same goes for Dunn and Katy. I want to look at {CES, RF, NM} more closely.
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Post Post #411 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 9:15 am

Post by Ausuka »

I feel like all I got from reading those three ISOs is a reminder why I didn't have a strong read on them to begin with. When I looked at CES' ISO it felt like I was just kinda nodding along at everything he said? Like, I can't point at anything and say "This is definitely town" but I do feel that in general his ISO is pretty towny and he hasn't done anything scummy.

Not_Mafia is Not_Mafia and I don't know how to read him. I agree with his Katy TR I guess? not sure what to say here.

RF is just a big question mark in general too. I liked the CES vote earlier but now I'm thinking it's just a really unhelpful vanity vote and I'm not sure where his new vision of a Katy/Dunnstral team. In particular I'm not sure Katy even tries to fake the Dunn meta like she has been doing. Keep in mind here that Pine said earlier that this is Dunn's towngame too, and had him close to the top of his reads, so I feel it's somewhat safe to say that this is legitimately a town!Dunn game. I don't think I'd ever support that lynch.
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Post Post #412 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 10:38 am

Post by Katyusha »

In post 409, Ausuka wrote:Like, she's mentioned before that she enjoys playing scum a lot more than town and she's definitely been very active here, although that's also explained by the fact that this is a more serious and effort-based game than normal due to the playerlist and the team nature of the game
I like playing as both alignments and am spammy as both, if anything on-site my scumgames tend to be more inactive but that's more because I've been in depressive episodes during them rather than anything to do with the gamestate. I can link my off-site scumgame with nancy and ginngie if you need the meta or something for an example of how I seem active as scum

I think the easiest way to read me is by how shortsighted my trajectory is. I'm not good at predicting people as scum so I have a tendency to not be good at faking the reads I should be faking. I think, for example, scum!me townreads Pine by his wagon but then I'd have to defend his awful posting right now which would just feel extremely awkward and noticeable. I'm not sure how I am tonally as scum (probably not very good but all of the games I've been in have been bad indicators). In the referenced game above I basically got guiltied because I was forced by gamestate to lynch someone I previously stated as a strong townread (game was in evens, the lynchbait I wanted to lynch had zero momentum despite not being townie at all) and did a bad job moving my vote over in terms of waffling (and also because nancy suggested bad night actions but i can't really talk because i was v/la during that night lol).

Lycan did a massive gamesolve that I'm leafing over through right now, one conclusion we both agreed on that I feel needs emphasis is that pine!town = n_m!scum almost always so keep that in mind if we get to LYLO.
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Post Post #413 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 10:46 am

Post by Katyusha »

Actually one thing that's important:

I would like Alisae and Plot to tell me where they would be after I flip town in terms of reads.
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Post Post #414 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 11:02 am

Post by Pine »

In post 409, Ausuka wrote:I'm rereading the thread and like I'm not really feeling a Katy lynch? Most of the stuff she says about the early Pine wagon I agree with.
In post 112, Pine wrote: Your tone and behavior around my wagon suggests you know this is an error, which you don't want to be associated with, but are happy to passively encourage.
I mean, I don't see this in her play at all, and I don't get why Katy!scum is afraid of pushing a mislynch on page 5.
In post 115, Pine wrote:
In post 108, Katyusha wrote:If the above it’s true it might actually be Pine/CES

You feel legit so far, Dunn and ausuka are obvtown, singer is townie, rf is apparently town by meta i’ll trust in

So sure after like last minute reads and some discussion i’m no longer opposing this
And then you said this.

You're playing both sides without actually committing.
Not seeing this point either; Katy started by defending you, then changed her mind. I don't see that as "playing both sides" nor do I see that as something that town can't do?
In post 152, Pine wrote: For example, she keeps going on and on about how this is scum!Pine just attacking her without reason or explanation...yet I don't see a vote on me.
this is the only point on cogdis that I saw being brought up, and, like, I don't see why it's scummy for Katy to not want to hammer you so early on, nor do I think scum!Katy would be scared of voting you here.

this feels towny to me? like, it does genuinely feel like Katy and Lycan have been talking behind the scenes trying to solve the game. The part where she says "He vibed with most of what he was doing and he'd vote in the same places at the same time as him." about CES resonates with me in particular because I had the same thought process w/ CES early on and that's why I had him as town originally.

feels kinda opportunistic? like he wants to grab a singer mislynch and then get katy as well. I don't get his position of thinking Katy/Singer are scum together; that's one scumteam I wouldn't really have ever considered.

but idk though. There are a few things that give me doubts about katy. Like, she's mentioned before that she enjoys playing scum a lot more than town and she's definitely been very active here, although that's also explained by the fact that this is a more serious and effort-based game than normal due to the playerlist and the team nature of the game. If any of {pine, mastina} {Alisae, plotinus} are town I think the odds are quite low that they'd both be wrong about katy. But I guess I'm just not really seeing it? a lot of her stuff definitely seems like genuine solving. I've already given the example of the lycan post, and actually genuinely does feel like she's trying to sort through the games and prove Dunn is town. The obvious answer based on this would be pine/plot but I'm definitely not convinced it's going to be that easy.
If I wanted to chain Singer/Katy I wouldn't have backpedaled and unvoted when she Towned the fuck up. Singer went from enigmatic and opaque to Towny as all shit. That's why I got frustrated - I thought I'd figured it out and she proved me wrong.
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Post Post #415 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 11:05 am

Post by Pine »

Btw, Mastina is spinning wild conspiracy theories about you and Kat in our thread, about you two working together to push singer as a cw to Kat, then discrediting the Katyusha wagon.

Ftr, I don't believe her.
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Post Post #416 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 11:39 am

Post by Katyusha »

Pine, can you explain how singer's posts after your intent were "towny as all shit" because even in retrospect I legitimately do not see it.
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Post Post #417 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 11:46 am

Post by Katyusha »

In post 415, Pine wrote:Btw, Mastina is spinning wild conspiracy theories about you and Kat in our thread, about you two working together to push singer as a cw to Kat, then discrediting the Katyusha wagon.
Also, when did this begin? Like which post/around what timestamp if we're allowed to/what point in the gamestate
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Post Post #418 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 11:54 am

Post by Pine »

In post 296, singersigner wrote:Cool, on a computer so I can word vomit some paraphrasing stuff:

Re: Dunn...you're keeping your cards close to your chest. My dodging comment was based on your reactions to my questioning you. You have a different tone from White Flag (according to Ran, I stopped reading it after CES said he wasn't going to utilize us, lol). You said RedFlavor was coasting and were leaning town on me, but now that there's a wagon on me, you're interested in voting for me? Apparently you pushed T-Chill for lurking and posting in other games, but aren't doing that here for some reason.

Re: Pine...we really liked what he produced when he was under fire. Ran particularly noted this is similar to your Civ 5 Mafia play.

Re: Plot...your Kat reads make sense, particularly because I had the same initial concerns with her spiral on Pine. We like Ali's reads, but which you were more of a presence in this game.

Re: Ausuka...this is a bit biased because we're scumreading RedFlavor. Ran doesn't blame you for not liking my play but does note it's making people question it so we can see if there's town motivation behind determining why I'm playing this way or not. :cool: Not sure why this was in your note...something something, thinks Kat's wrong on Dunn and you're just following her?

Tossing in that seemed genuine
This was the post that flipped me back off of singer. This was a really Townish post.

Mastina's been nuts since after the singer lynch. You know how she is...never ten words when a hundred are possible.
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Post Post #419 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 11:57 am

Post by Katyusha »

How? That's an entirely fakeable post. The meta on Dunn is just flat out wrong, the change on singer could be interesting/meaningful I guess but it's nothing I think that's impossible for singer to post as scum.
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Post Post #420 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 1:04 pm

Post by Pine »

"Entirely fakeable"

Singer flipped Town
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Post Post #421 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 1:20 pm

Post by Katyusha »

Your point is?
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Post Post #422 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 1:25 pm

Post by Pine »

That you're prosecuting a case against flipped Town
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Post Post #423 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 1:53 pm

Post by Katyusha »

I'm not prosecuting a case, I'm trying to understand why you read singer a certain way because your thought process doesn't look natural or genuine whatsoever. If we had more time I would have still done this before singer's flip (I even attempted to but, as always, you give shit non-answers)
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Post Post #424 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2018 2:07 pm

Post by northsidegal »

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