Open 723: Purgatory! (Hell Phase 3)

[RC most awesomest]

I don't like losing games

[Invisibility]

he had gotten off that train and started playing the game normally for a long time though. he just went back to replacing out when Duck got hammered.

no? It's not like he'd just focus completely on wanting to replace out after he said he would.
also triple ninja'd holy crap

[Hiraki]

Ego

[RC most awesomest]

it felt to me like he had entirely shifted focus: he never said anything about my slot from there on out and was trying to be cordial and stuff.

[ruru]

Having one IC alive who is never lynched (not even to heaven to block scum when one scum is already in heaven, which I'm pretty sure is suboptimal strategy) and lynching randomly among the rest today leads to simulated 80% win

Lynching town today leads to simulated 60% win

This is also completely ignoring the positive effects of lynching RC

IF YOU THINK I AM TOWN, DO NOT LYNCH ME TODAY

[RC most awesomest]

By positive effect you mean the fact that if Oxy isn't scum then you don't have me here to give input and risk you guys sending scum to heaven and making this game winnable again for scum?

[ruru]

If you flip green I promise not to send Oxy to heaven

[Invisibility]

ok
UNVOTE:

[RC most awesomest]

If we don't send scum to heaven we just need to correctly lynch 1 of the 2 remaining scum
if we DO send scum to heaven then we have to lynch the 1 specific scum

making your decisions off of probabilities that don't accurately reflect the way that mafia is played is a recipe for disaster.

You're trying to overcompensate for my scum game in a situation where as scum I would have just taken the invitation to heaven.

[ruru]

279 has nothing to do with you

[RC most awesomest]

stop determining strategy based off of simulated results that assume random lynching please.

[ruru]

The last thing I would want to do is policy send someone like myself to heaven because of how bad sending scum to heaven is in this setup

but knowing that I'm town fighting over not being sent to heaven is never worth it here.

The last thing I would want to do is policy send someone like myself to heaven because of how bad sending scum to heaven is in this setup

but knowing that I'm town fighting over not being sent to heaven is never worth it here.

The last thing I would want to do is policy send someone like myself to heaven because of how bad sending scum to heaven is in this setup

but knowing that I'm town fighting over not being sent to heaven is never worth it here.

The last thing I would want to do is policy send someone like myself to heaven because of how bad sending scum to heaven is in this setup

but knowing that I'm town fighting over not being sent to heaven is never worth it here.

The last thing I would want to do is policy send someone like myself to heaven because of how bad sending scum to heaven is in this setup

but knowing that I'm town fighting over not being sent to heaven is never worth it here.

The only rational option if you continue to argue against being d2 lynched is to d3 lynch you

[RC most awesomest]

like let's assume that you're town.

If I'm scum, then you don't want me going to heaven because I'm scum and then you have to correctly catch out my specific buddy instead of having a chance at lynching either of us
If I'm town, then you don't want me going to heaven because I'm going to contribute more than you: no offense given that you voted scum D1 but I'm a lot more confident in my self than I am in you.

The only rational option if you continue to argue against being d2 lynched is to d3 lynch you

Your approach to the game is not rational because you're using terrible logic and models that don't capture the actual game

[ruru]

stop determining strategy based off of simulated results that assume random lynching please.

Real life towns are going to be much, much

better

than random at avoiding sending a scum #2 to heaven

I have given both theoretical and practical reasons why lynching me today is terrible and all you've done is say I'm wrong

[RC most awesomest]

There is no reason for my resistance here as scum unless I'm trying to make a show of how much I don't want to for the sake of making sure it goes through.

Real life towns are going to be much, much better than random at avoiding sending a scum #2 to heaven

I have given both theoretical and practical reasons why lynching me today is terrible and all you've done is say I'm wrong

You've argued that keeping you in the game as a conftown instead of sending you to heaven is a conftown when that doesn't make sense
we need 4 conftowns for 2 way JD, 4 way, 6 way, 8 way. The order that we use them doesn't matter except in the sense that we should save the strongest for last

Your practical reason is that if I'm scum and don't get sent to heaven that's somehow worse for town than if I'm scum and do get send to heaven.

Please just trust me to solve the game.

[ruru]

If I'm scum, then you don't want me going to heaven because I'm scum and then you have to correctly catch out my specific buddy instead of having a chance at lynching either of us

Yes, lynching scum today is bad

Lynching anyone today is bad. If we could skip heaven phases, we would

Lynching your strongest townread is

worse

Please just trust me to solve the game.

Why? You're currently pushing the most -EV lynch possible

[RC most awesomest]

Your understanding of EV is wrong because you're using mathematical models that don't actually apply to the actual game because lynches aren't actually random.
if we have 4 correct townreads we win the game that's what I'm looking for and I trust myself more than I trust you to find two more people who are never going to be scum.

I want an 100% chance of winning this game.

[RC most awesomest]

Simple question: is it better to send town!you or scum!me to heaven, and if so, why?

[ruru]

I don't believe you or anyone else has 100% to solo carry town

If you treat me as IC, the theoretical EV of lynching scum!you is 67% win
The theoretical EV of lynching me is 60% win

This is

without

implementing optimal town strategy, or even considering how dangerous you are as scum

[ruru]

You're saying you want to lynch obvtown in order to find 4 other obvtowns and that doing this is somehow a 100% play

[RC most awesomest]

Like you're treating the heaven send as a flip for some reason. If you hit town it's beneficial in the sense that you confirmed someone as town but that's illusory.
If you hit scum it's extremely bad.

I don't believe you or anyone else has 100% to solo carry town

If you treat me as IC, the theoretical EV of lynching scum!you is 67% win
The theoretical EV of lynching me is 60% win

This is without implementing optimal town strategy, or even considering how dangerous you are as scum

Oh no I'm so dangerous as scum I'm probably going to get autosent to hea- oh wait.
This is 100% wrong by the way: I'm not sure what's making the numbers wrong but I am 100% that this is not how this game works.
Even if the numbers were correct I'd strongly argue that, fypov

2/7ths odds of me being scum = 2% increased win equity based on the difference
5/7ths of the time me being town I only need to make the game about 3% more likely to end in a win by being kept alive
town average winrate last year was about 40%, mine was well above 50%. I am worth that 3%.

You're saying you want to lynch obvtown in order to find 4 other obvtowns and that doing this is somehow a 100% play

I am saying that I want to send heaven to town 3 times in a row and then have another town to win 2 way JD
That is how the game is never lost. Playing to win is how the game is won if it's played well but has the potential for error.

[Hiraki]

There's only 12 pages and I feel it's going to be long. Yikes!

[AP]

If you actually believe I'm town, lynching me today is a waste of a flip

What if I don't have a read on you but want to work with the rest of the town rather than be an arsehole?

[RC most awesomest]

What are your reads then AP

[ruru]

Like you're treating the heaven send as a flip for some reason.

Because it is a flip

If you hit scum it's extremely bad.

Citation needed

Oh no I'm so dangerous as scum I'm probably going to get autosent to hea- oh wait.
This is 100% wrong by the way: I'm not sure what's making the numbers wrong but I am 100% that this is not how this game works.

It's like 60 LOC and I highly encourage you to find bugs if you actually are town and want to win

Even if the numbers were correct I'd strongly argue that, fypov

2/7ths odds of me being scum = 2% increased win equity based on the difference
5/7ths of the time me being town I only need to make the game about 3% more likely to end in a win by being kept alive
town average winrate last year was about 40%, mine was well above 50%. I am worth that 3%.

No, 5/7ths of the time you're killing an obvtown slot just so that you can play the game on later days. That's the issue, and it's more like 20% than 3%

You are never going to be obvtown in this game

PoE is strong, even more so when I can't get NKed

You are basically trying to NK me right now

That is how the game is never lost. Playing to win is how the game is won if it's played well but has the potential for error.

So basically you're saying you want to be responsible for the loss if we lose, and you're willing to decrease our actual winrate just so it's not somebody else losing you the game

I sympathize with that but it's not rational