Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Ouroboros]

So everything in the initial Wilky push from me still stands: the approach to Davesaz's claim was bad.

There's also his later day which is absolutely horrible knowing that MWNN is town, he thought MWNN/Ventriloquist were likely scumpartners but he was only willing to vote MWNN and then SR Vent if MWNN flipped scum. The scum strategy at that point seemed to be to lynch MWNN based on Vent's actions so that lines up and then the point at EOD where he eventually decides to jump to Ventriloquist when it's inevitable feels pretty bad

fwiw I dislike your jump off but my feelings on your slot are mixed because there's several points in the game that I townread. no strong read one way or the other atm

Wilky hard pushes MWNN,

using my logic for why MWNN and Ventriloquist are connected to help push MWNN

, but never gives a read or talks to Ventriloquist at all until the lynch is inevitable where he lazy hops on.

So lynching scum is bad for town? Ank has absolutely collapsed under a slight bit of pressure here.

VOTE: vent

L-1

Also even when he's voting Ventriloquist he's trying to setup a future mislynch.

VOTE: Wilky

This was my original Wilky vote, btw.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Regardless you're misunderstanding the point.
The miller claim if anything points towards him being town, which you've been trying to shot down, not the act of explicitly being miller but motive, your entire motive boils down to a prerrogative that GIF did something you cant confirm he did, and that the scumteam did something you cant confirm they did either, which is circumstantial evidence at best, just a possibility.

So once again, why is it more likely that what you say happened, happened. Than him simply being a miller. Because i dont see any reason why supposed scum!wilky would risk getting hit by a role cop by fake claiming miller.

And what's even more interesting is the fact that...

... the only scum player I know enough to plan this entire thing so that wilky would be confirmed by a miller claim and trying to predict a role cop's actions or any other sorta thing would be you.

But you're town no?

[Ouroboros]

Regardless you're misunderstanding the point.
The miller claim if anything points towards him being town, which you've been trying to shot down, not the act of explicitly being miller but motive, your entire motive boils down to a prerrogative that GIF did something you cant confirm he did, and that the scumteam did something you cant confirm they did either, which is circumstantial evidence at best, just a possibility.

You could say this about anything, whether he's town or scum. You'd have to talk about GIF doing something you can't confirm he did as scum as well.
I think it's more likely that what I say happened happened than him being a miller because he's ungodly scummy and because my gut says that miller fakeclaim is more likely than 2 millesr here.

I also think you're badly overestimating how complex the order of operations for this to be a scum claim is.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Well why do i even bother, you're just gonna keep arguing that your opinion is the only valid one anyway.
It's the same sort of thing that gets people mislynched... because people dont operate in the way people's perception of "town" is?
And then when mistakes are made.
It's always the lynchee's fault.
Guess nothing ever changes, i dunno why i hoped it someday would.

[davesaz]

But a lot of that unwillingness to let go is because I can never trust the game to townread me. If I could trust the game to townread me I'd be able to play mafia a lot differently.

One of the reasons people like me get paranoid is that you don't let go. The most dangerous scum is the one that takes control (which you just got through saying). If you're town, you are making yourself the kind of town that people can't trust. Yeah, you were right about Vent but it proves nothing. You aren't conftown and I don't think you should act like you are. You have one voice and one vote, and if you get manipulative it's just natural for people to get worried about that. Be persuasive with evidence, not by comparing size, because size doesn't matter.

Let's talk a couple reads. Wilky claimed a role (modifier?) and soft claimed a flavor which implies something that is potentially beneficial to town. With the understanding that safe/fake claims could exist, I'd be surprised if there isn't some kind of investigative for either role, flavor, or both, so why not let results sort the slot? Sure, I totally get that millers and lylo don't get along unless they're obvtowning, but tell me how this slot is a priority to push right now. I think it's more likely town than scum, and good town strategy also leans in the direction of letting it go for now.

The other one is Tchill. This one's a two parter for me. I can't see a good reason for a hider who isn't weak. Mechanically it takes a role which is resistant to being checked, and nerfs what little utility it has for finding scum. Such a role is functionally similar to a commuter or ascetic. As I said before, scum with one of those roles might fakeclaim hider -- because an unexplained no result is the one thing they must fear. The second part of this read is that I've played with tchill and this game looks a lot different than his towngame that I've seen. TBH I don't remember if I've seen him as scum. That's admittedly a weak reason to scumread someone, but I have a vibe there and I'd like to pursue it.

[davesaz]

You managed to have a whole conversation while I typed that one post lol.

Kaede, what do you think about Wilky's softclaimed flavor? Do you know the game enough (or have enough search skillz) to see what it might mean if he's town?

[Ouroboros]

There's a lot of assumptions required but none of the assumptions are particularly challenging assumptions to make fmpov.

Well why do i even bother, you're just gonna keep arguing that your opinion is the only valid one anyway.
It's the same sort of thing that gets people mislynched... because people dont operate in the way people's perception of "town" is?
And then when mistakes are made.
It's always the lynchee's fault.
Guess nothing ever changes, i dunno why i hoped it someday would.

I don't want to make you have an existential crisis here. I do feel like I'm generally better at predicting how scum would react to a miller fakeclaim in that situation but meh.
I also think that callig Ventriloquist scum when necessary for the purpose of making MWNN look worse for it while never putting Ventriloquist as a potential lynch unless MWNN flips scum is

like

NOT based on people's perceptions of town. it's strictly scummy. I think of all people in this game I probably go farthest out of my way to understand how individuals work and how people operate.
I was the one trying to encourage you to understand how I operate.

Let's talk a couple reads. Wilky claimed a role (modifier?) and soft claimed a flavor which implies something that is potentially beneficial to town. With the understanding that safe/fake claims could exist, I'd be surprised if there isn't some kind of investigative for either role, flavor, or both, so why not let results sort the slot? Sure, I totally get that millers and lylo don't get along unless they're obvtowning, but tell me how this slot is a priority to push right now. I think it's more likely town than scum, and good town strategy also leans in the direction of letting it go for now.

I strongly disagree that good town strategy leans in the direction of finding scum and then not lynching scum.
I am also incredibly concerned that he walks to endgame in a way that no other slot I think is likely to be scum worries me.

One of the reasons people like me get paranoid is that you don't let go. The most dangerous scum is the one that takes control (which you just got through saying). If you're town, you are making yourself the kind of town that people can't trust. Yeah, you were right about Vent but it proves nothing. You aren't conftown and I don't think you should act like you are. You have one voice and one vote, and if you get manipulative it's just natural for people to get worried about that. Be persuasive with evidence, not by comparing size, because size doesn't matter.

People would get worried if I wasn't strongarming town, I just would have less powerful tools to combat people getting worried about me.

[Ouroboros]

Well why do i even bother, you're just gonna keep arguing that your opinion is the only valid one anyway.

In this case yes I do believe that my opinion here is more valid than yours. But not because I didn't listen to alternative viewpoints.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Kaede, what do you think about Wilky's softclaimed flavor? Do you know the game enough (or have enough search skillz) to see what it might mean if he's town?

I literally have no flavor knowledge, the only thing i know is that if im scum and not a miller under no circumstance i fake claim a miller after a miller has already claimed.

[Ouroboros]

Also I don't think it's at all implausible that one scum role actually has the miller modifier and that specific role they had already decided he was taking. But, yes.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

But hey i already gave up arguing the point and decided to vote wilky because im tired of arguing.
Guess only after wilky flips town, RC may wake up.

[Ouroboros]

What if I'm right on Wilky though, Kaede?

[davesaz]

We're days from endgame. If there are multiple potential scum and one of them is also a potential powerful town, why would it be better to lynch the potential town PR

today

?

[Ouroboros]

Beecause I think the odds of it being scum are significantly higher than the odds of anyone else in particular being scum.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

What if I'm right on Wilky though, Kaede?

What more do you want? it's not like i can give you more than the 1 vote you already have.
It's not like im arguing any more with you, i already gave up on that too.

[davesaz]

I'd prefer not to just out the potential role that the flavor implies, but at least two people here know (ETL being the other). This is where you respect the knowledge of your fellow town.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

But hey since we're going to be lynching people based on assumptions of what the mod told the scum team, or what the scum team researched, by all means go ahead.

[davesaz]

I don't even play the game BTW, but it was fairly easy to search.

[Ankamius]

Ouroboros has just under 27% of the game's posts in an 18 player game.

Just throwing that out there

[Ouroboros]

I'd prefer not to just out the potential role that the flavor implies, but at least two people here know (ETL being the other). This is where you respect the knowledge of your fellow town.

And what happens when he's scum and ends up walking to endgame because I wasn't strong willed enough to nip this in the bud here? also HI ANKAMIUS!

[Kaede Akamatsu]

I'd prefer not to just out the potential role that the flavor implies, but at least two people here know (ETL being the other). This is where you respect the knowledge of your fellow town.

And what happens when he's scum and ends up walking to endgame because I wasn't strong willed enough to nip this in the bud here? also HI ANKAMIUS!

And what happens if he does indeed flip some sort of powerful town PR?

[Kaede Akamatsu]

You know what i really should just go to sleep.
Maybe ill have a fresher head tomorrow.

[Ankamius]

I somehow am at #5 of the game's posts and apparently based on screenshots of this game's activity overview, this has been a thing for a while

Yet I can't remember more than like a couple things I've done

Am I dreaming this game?

[Ouroboros]

Long-ish post. I make no apologies for that.

The whole beef between the hydra's is tedious, unnecessary and quite frankly a silly argument. Can that stop now before this game reaches a pretty toxic state and becomes unfun for everyone.

Yeah I could get on board with a Vent wagon too

Is it not possible Tchill has a jester role of some sort? Not suggesting an insta win but I don't see how his claim could be helpful to town otherwise.

It wouldn't surprise me if Wilky has done research and is relying on the miller claim because he realises the host has done this before, especially since he chose to highlight that it wasn't far fetched for there to be 2 millers again. As Alchemist said though, this is relying on some pretty niche assumptions so I'm not buying it just yet.

Very suspicious post

Almost forgot, might as well elaborate on why I find this post very suspicious, because why not

He uses some rather

absurd

leaps in logic in two separate cases to paint a narrative picture about these two players, deliberately ignoring Occam's Razor in favor of stirring up WIFOM.

What is more likely? That TChill is running a Jester gambit? Or that TChill is fakeclaiming? TChill's was by far the least believable claim so far, and the most awkward (considering Kaede is mod-confirmed). By bringing up some a longshot possiblity, Vent is indirectly mounting a soft defense of TChill.

Simultaneously, he attempts to cast suspicion on Wilky with a similarly absurd leap. What's more likely? That Wilky is claiming Miller truthfully in a game run by a mod who apparently has a habit of these kinds of setup quirks? Or that Wilky is deliberately playing off mod meta to mount a roundabout fakeclaim gambit, with a claim that is by its nature instantly considered suspect by default?

I don't like that whatsoever. And after we get the VC I might consider switching my vote right now.

Ugh, I can't fully remember why I quoted this post now but I agree with what Wraith is saying here.

I'm not scum reading manwithnoname that hard right now, he seems to be scumhunting, which I don't think many scum players try to play up this early day one.

Scum players don't play up scumhunting on day 1? I disagree., I don't think the explanation for your read is a good one.

He uses some rather absurd leaps in logic in two separate cases to paint a narrative picture about these two players, deliberately ignoring Occam's Razor in favor of stirring up WIFOM.

What is more likely? That TChill is running a Jester gambit? Or that TChill is fakeclaiming? TChill's was by far the least believable claim so far, and the most awkward (considering Kaede is mod-confirmed). By bringing up some a longshot possiblity, Vent is indirectly mounting a soft defense of TChill.

Absurd leaps in logic aren't more likely to come from scum than town. If anything it's the opposite. While you may be correct, I don't think you make a good point here. Town is allowed to soft defend people too, by the way.

Agree with the first part why wouldn't scum give the impression of scumhunting early on?

Can you elaborate on the next part? Why is absurd leaps in logic more likely to come from town?

RC

All I really want to know in light of that is how much weight you put behind the points on him you've already stated.

I might be willing to go back to sheeping, but I want to be sure that it's worth not gunning for a slot that I think is highly likely to flip scum.

If you think that MWNN is scum it should at the very least intrigue you that MWNN followed me on several votes but then got cold feet and waffled when I tried to vote Ventriloquist.

This is interesting.

I got tired of following a town read rather than pursuing my own reads, especially when the Ventriloquist read came down to "He's inactive".

Just because you're obvtown, doesn't mean you are always right, RC. You should have learned that by now.

This is a bad reply.

Like: if you agree with me that Ventriloquist is doing nothing and needs to start doing something, shouldn't you at the very least be enthusiastic about wagoning him to force him to do something?
You're also voting another person on your another blip on the radar list, so idk.

Ankamius is several percentage points above rand and I totally agree with the read that Hebi has so idk what your issue is Dunn.

Again this is interesting, so mwnn sheeped you up until ventriloquist, then backed off saying he wasn't a blip on his radar whilst voting someone else he said the same thing about? I'm too lazy to check if this happened that way but I will check it over the weekend.

I agree Ventriloquist needs to start posting, that being said, I think Realmen's posting has been to the point where he is just avoiding posting anything that can be AI. The last time I voted off of someone that was doing that, I got burned, that's why I am pushing Realmen.

Ventriloquist has enough votes without me to pressure him into voting, anyway.

Like, fuck, this is a large anyway, if I were scum with Ventriloquist, why wouldn't I vote him for the town cred anyway?

Ahh good ole deflection "yes my scumbuddy isn't playing stellar but look at this other player here..."

I can understand the reaction to my posting, by the way. I'm just going to have to be better going forward.

I still think Realmen is the best vote at this point in time. Ventriloquist can be on notice, but Realmen has actually been scummy (I will admit again, amusing) but scummy, overall.

I hate posts like this, the whole I can understand why you feel i'm scum but promise me i'm just not playing great just feels so scummy and is also a subtle AtE.

if i considered sk, i said 14 v 3 v 1, but i doubt sk - 2 millers and hider in closed game with 2 KPN (

as you see, i don't consider either of them gambiting scum in this case - i doubt scum would risk such gambit, if there was only 3 of them)

As to why i doubt 5 maf, there's general rule for numbers in game - town = 3xscum + 1, closest number is 13 v 4, adding 5th scum in closed game requires them to be very weak and town godlike.

As to games with similar numbers - Beneath the Mask was 16 v 5, Divergent was 15 v 4 v 1 and we barely won, Kingdom Hearts was 13 v 4

So when someone gives unrealistic number, i wonder if they have no idea about setups or are scum trying fake townslip

Who are the two players you are referring to in the bolded part?

The whole fake townslip over numbers is a bullshit argument if I have ever seen one. I mean who said there isn't a 5 man scum team? Just because it's slightly out from the norm doesn't mean it might not be the case. I also get a feeling your posting from a perspective that 100% knows the size of the scum team which doesn't go in your favour for my reads.

As for TRs, i never give those, unless someone do or say something that makes them locktown in my eyes, otherwise all my TRs are subject to change

And your scum reads aren't subject to change?

Why hide that information? I think anyone's TRs are always subject to change unless they are mod confirmed, yet you dont see them hiding them.

Then what point of posting townreads, if you going change them later on? If anyone want my TRs, they can just assume people i'm not scumreading are my townreads atm

Same as above there's not a possibility your scum reads will change later?

So, oldtimers, who can confirm that in past it was norm 5 scum in 18p closed games?

Does it really fucking matter? This might be the worst case of shit flinging I have ever seen in a mafia game.

Fine, whatever.

VOTE: Ventriloquist

I don't like being a leader anyway

Wait? Wut? Where did this come from? Weren't you against the vent wagon before now?

he was awkward and scummy tonally

Ick.

I hate tone reads. They're basically like gut reads and a lynch-bait thing to have as the foundation of your scum read on someone.

I don't have a huge amount of scumreads so far this game. One of wilky and tchill is probably scum, MWNN is scummy too and probably more so than wilky at this point. Unsure what to make of the impossibear and jungle thing.

So...? Let me summarize this so that I can understand it....

Wilky is probs scum cause of awkward and "scummy" tone, but TChill might be scum too! But MWNN is scummier than Wilky (and probably TChill?), but I'm still vote sitting on TChill all the

way from

PAGE ONE RVS

!

And then, there's this...

for what it's worth this probably means tchill and mwnn aren't both scum.

Ghost

QFT. I agree with everything in that quote.

Don't you have a problem with the fact that Wilky called MWNN out for an associative that specifically implied Ventriloquist as partner but only put Ventriloquist as a potential lynch if Town!MWNN flipped scum?

And what happens if he does indeed flip some sort of powerful town PR?

I believe that right now the cost benefit of letting him go * the odds of him being scum vs cost benefit of letting him go * him being town PR are heavily weighted towards just lynching him.

[Ankamius]

MariaR isn't that far below and I kind of remember being pretty certain she's town but I can't remember anything she's done either.

idk maybe I'm going senile

I'm not too young to be going senile am I?