Mini Theme 2007: Police Academy 1 - Game Over

[OnTheMark]

In regards to the team mafia mod threads

The main avenue of discussion was Discord not threads.
I don’t remember the majority of it by my own choice because some of that shit is/was depressing as hell.
I also don’t verify something not everyone has access to.

So it may be possible that that exists. However I won’t verify or deny this unless everyone will have access to it. Otherwise to me it feels like it is the spirit of ongoing.

[Nosferatu]

oh is this a new one

[Nosferatu]

Draynth

i agree with the rest, i can come around to this, lay your reasoning on me.

[Nosferatu]

I can vouch for Jingle's process on Mulch being quite likely to be accurate. Sure, no tell is 100%, but they are still disproportionately likely to be right. As long as you assume Jingle is town, you can thus assume Jingle knows what he is talking about. Additionally backing this up is my read on Draynth.

Draynth's contributions to the game were, by and large, fairly null, neither inherently town or pun. However, his dialog with Gorkington contained a spark of something which a player of Draynth's caliber simply cannot produce as pun. There was an extensive real-time back-and-forth with a fair amount of stream-of-consciousness with Draynth laying out his process, his reads, his reasoning, and showing his sincerity in his beliefs. That level of genuine posting is not something I would expect from a player who is, comparatively speaking, fairly weak.

oof

you know I won't necessarily oppose you on this, but I know for a fact that mulch can read my slot in about 5 posts, and I doubt town!mulch would have avoided giving his opinion on my alignment in the time before he left given how long he was here and how many posts I made.

that's just my two cents but that's weak and draynth is a slightly scummy slot, so I'll let you keep him here I guess.

[Jingle]

If you are counting on a set number of town and scum results scum just claim incorrectly and then your conclusions are proven false. Did Jingle address this somewhere?

If you'll notice, the midling results are not certainties. If we get 5 town results from the five players who had town results on SGBA, the only possible way that the results could be a false parity positive could be that we lynched both legitimate results cops in that pool AND the random town players in the pool got the same results, which is statistically insignificant in my eyes. If we get 0 town results, there cannot possibly be a false parity negative, and we have confirmed that both Naive cops are either dead or scum.

Further, there are two pools. To prevent either pool from giving us usable information, scum has to mess with both pools, hence the not splitting the pools among two people to get more results. If we could outright trust the results of either pool, then that would be optimal. This setup's PR value is in comparative results. You should be able to figure out why that's useful, but I'm not going into it today, because someone in the town will be able to figure it out if I die from my ISO, and I'd rather let scum flail around and make mistakes if possible.

Look at the way things progressed yesterday and today, and then realize it is highly likely scum didn't lie about their results today. They had no reason to, from their PoV, and I reinforced that by demanding blind claims of results in opening posts, which remains modus operandi for the rest of the game, btw.

Basically, from a philosophy standpoint, we need to treat this game as a three pronged attack. 1: Traditional town/scumhunting. 2. Actual results from the cops. 3. Narrowing players into respective pools of sanities to check for discrepancies in number of each type and then lynch the scummiest members of groups. Which of 2 and 3 is more useful is decided mostly by the results of the random cops.

This game is never going to be fully solvable by PRs, like any well designed game. (Or, well, it isn't anymore. There was a potential autowin, but RNG didn't give it to us.) The point is to use the PR's as a tool to narrow down the lynch field until we can get confirmed town or confirmed scum, and win the game from there.

As for why retarget-ing SGBA doesn't gain us as much in this case, I think I've mentioned it today. If we had a pool that likely had more randoms than the other, it would be optimal. We don't, we have two pools that are roughly the same size. Retargeting gives us a 50% chance per random cop of outing their sanity if town. Not 100%, meaning there would likely still be hidden random cops among the town. Further, it gives us 0 information in telling Sane/Insane from Naive/Paranoid, meaning we can't trust results for Night 3 either. Therefore, our best bet is to have a target of the opposite alignment of our night one target.

And given the near universal townread (near because of Titus) on SGBA, we're counting on our results being on Town in the first place, and assumptions as to role are being applied based on that. Tomorrow, we will need to reevaluate whether to shoot for strategy 2 or 3 with the night actions. Rooting out random vs. non random is useful. Rooting out parity is useful. Rooting out useable results is useful. The question is which is more useful, which do scum attempt to interfere with the most, and how do we make it most obvious that scum is attempting to interfere with those results.

[Jingle]

Spoiler: This interaction is incredibly awkward.

I'm up to the end of page 20:

Ankamius (replaced PenguinPower)

EspeciallyTheLies
Stop Getting Banned Again (vonflare, GuyInFreezer, Annadog40, xyzzy, mcmenno, korina, randomidget, Who, asuka, creature, the worst, tn5421, greenliquid, not_mafia, TheGoldenParadox, CooLDoG, AnonymousGhost, srceenplay, ConManMick, RedFlavor, Aristophanes)

Jingle

Draynth (replaced Mulch)
Gorkington

Nosferatu (replaced KidAmn)
Almost50
Titus

Punreader (replaced CheekyTeeky)
eddie

To be fair, punreader's posts on page 21 are so scummy that he's easily overtaking you as my strongest scumread, so there's your boon for the day.

Btw

I was never hard-scumreading you in Necromancer like I was Brass/Kokichi/Tywin, so that overreaction is very interesting.

These are the Ank side, and it's worth looking at the Eddie side too, but basically Eddie freaked out about being a scumread

before

he had even replaced into the game, on page 20. (his replacement, for reference, comes on page 23) Ank's reaction however, is WAY more interesting. Instead of pointing out that she was still catching up and that this was a reads list from before eddie himself was in the game, she immediately points out that another player (pun) is becoming more scummy and that Eddie shouldn't expect her to be able to read him because she wasn't even hardscumreading him in a recent game.

:thorface:

Bottom of 36:

Now I'm thinking {Almost50 + Gorkington + Eddie} with Nos substituting if there's a town there.

This is fairly representative of Ank's reads lists while catching up. There's not a lot of substance, when you look at them. Consistently, she's naming the people in my PoE pool as scummy, but the names are usually EVERYONE in my PoE pool (other than Nos) or different every time. For the record, this is NAI, not scummy, but I disagree entirely with a townread based on this level of content.

Votecount 2.02

Titus (4)

Punreader , Stop Getting Banned Again , EspeciallyTheLies , eddie , L-2

Nosferatu (4)

Jingle , Titus , Almost50 , Nosferatu , L-2

Not Voting (5)

Draynth , Ankamius , Porkens , Gorkington , Ginngie ,

Day two deadline is Thursday May 24, 6 PM PST. (expired on 2018-05-24 18:00:00). With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch!

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

[/size]

First of all, since when do dead slots have a vote?

Second, look at this:

ETL, Jingle, Stop Getting Banned Again, and Nosferatu are all scumreading Almost50.

Punreader, as far as I can tell, has been townreading Almost50 ever since early on in their replacement, only detailing that Titus-scum would increase the chances of Almost50-scum.
Draynth, besides not being here how, hasn't mentioned any read on Almost50 in two weeks (which was lean-scum anyways).

Gorkington hasn't stated any read on Almost50 since page 32, which was in itself vague.

eddie has never stated a read on Almost50 except for a recent... null read I assume?
Titus thinks the scumteam is Eddie/SGBA/Punreader, assuming a townread on Almost50 either to create that PoE or because of that team scumread.

This means that all my strong townreads are scumreading Almost50, yet nobody else is.

I don't think this is a coincidence at all.

This is the definition of low hanging fruit. Look, all of the universal townreads (and Nos) are scumreading this player and no one else is. This is not a reason A50 is scummy. This is a reason A50 is a good target for scum. Rereading A50 to check if derptown or obvscum is now a high priority, as is my reset on Nos.

Also, notably, Ank has expounded on the A50 read as A50 is scum because he's not town, which is pretty :thorface: in context.

Like

If we don't get a scumflip today

I honestly don't know if town can win if my read on the gamestate is at least reasonably accurate barring a huge cop guilty chain or other mechanics, which I try to not rely on whenever possible.

This, frankly, doesn't make any sense. Ank is hardtownreading 4 people. 3 of those people are universal townreads. It is day 2. The only way we're in a bad position here is if town is incompetent or scum has infiltrated the universal townreads. Ank clearly doesn't believe the latter, and I don't think from context that Ank believes either me or ETL to be incompetent, so the former doesn't make sense either. From my PoV this looks like a great place to be as town. This looks way more like what scum should be thinking at this point in the game.

Well

yeah

Almost50 is obvscumming

:thorface:

tbh

If I end up dead tonight, then your reads probably have a lot of merit.

Until then, I don't really agree outside of eddie.

If Ank scum, Titus town.

tl;dr, Pun, I'm gonna need that Ank towncase after all.

[Ankamius]

You're scumreading my playstyle, Jingle.

1. When I get responses like 1420 and 1421, I'm not nice about my own responses. I challenge them either via excessive snark or excessive aggression. Those posts were snarky.
2. Just because I don't go into reads right away doesn't mean I don't have reasons for them. This applies

[Ankamius]

Somehow I pressed the "submit" button via a hotkey?

[Ankamius]

ThiYou're scumreading my playstyle, Jingle.

1. When I get responses like 1420 and 1421, I'm not nice about my own responses. I challenge them either via excessive snark or excessive aggression. Those posts were snarky.
2. Just because I don't go into reads right away doesn't mean I don't have reasons for them. This applies to my reads while catching up and almost50 in general.
3. I thought town was losing because it seemed to me like Gork was about to go into the townblock, and without the extra information from a scumflip, I thought I'd end up dead tonight and Gork would be unlynchable.

[OnTheMark]

Jingle, I am going to respectfully agree to disagree and follow your plan. There isn’t really enough time to read otherwise. The combinatorics says you are wrong. So rather than argue with you for pages on end that no one wants to see we’re coping Titus lynching A50. That is my compromise. Almost50 is scum.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 2.06

Titus (2)

Punreader , Stop Getting Banned Again ,

Nosferatu (2)

Jingle , Almost50 ,

Almost50 (4)

Nosferatu , Gorkington , Titus , EspeciallyTheLies , L-2

Punreader (1)

eddie ,

Not Voting (2)

Ankamius , OnTheMark ,

Day two deadline is Thursday May 24, 6 PM PST. (expired on 2018-05-24 18:00:00). With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch!

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

[/size]

[OnTheMark]

VOTE: Almost50
L-1

[Stop Getting Banned Again]

VOTE: Almost50

[Ankamius]

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 2.Final

Titus (1)

Punreader ,

Nosferatu (2)

Jingle , Almost50 ,

Almost50 (6)

Nosferatu , Gorkington , Titus , EspeciallyTheLies , OnTheMark , Stop Getting Banned Again , L-0

Punreader (1)

eddie ,

Not Voting (1)

Ankamius ,

Day two deadline is Thursday May 24, 6 PM PST. (expired on 2018-05-24 18:00:00). With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch!

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

[/size]

[mhsmith0]

Almost50 was lynched. He was

Spoiler:

Mafia Cop

Night two deadline is Tuesday May 22, 9 PM PST. (expired on 2018-05-22 21:00:00). Please PM me your intended night actions.

[mhsmith0]

Stop Getting Banned Again was killed. They were

Spoiler:

Town Cop

Day three deadline is Tuesday June 5, 9 PM PST. (expired on 2018-06-05 21:00:00). With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch!

[Ankamius]

Morning

I got town on Titus.

[Punreader]

Mafia on Titus.

[OnTheMark]

Town on Titus.

Hey Titus...

Moonlogic Twin Powers Activate?

[OnTheMark]

Nos is spewed town from A50’s ISO
ETL is obvTown
I am town
SGBA was obvTown
Leaves you and Gork as the only potential scum on the wagon.

Off the wagon Punreader Jingle A50 Eddie and Ank

What does VCA day for you?

[OnTheMark]

Spoiler: This interaction is incredibly awkward.

I'm up to the end of page 20:

Ankamius (replaced PenguinPower)

EspeciallyTheLies
Stop Getting Banned Again (vonflare, GuyInFreezer, Annadog40, xyzzy, mcmenno, korina, randomidget, Who, asuka, creature, the worst, tn5421, greenliquid, not_mafia, TheGoldenParadox, CooLDoG, AnonymousGhost, srceenplay, ConManMick, RedFlavor, Aristophanes)

Jingle

Draynth (replaced Mulch)
Gorkington

Nosferatu (replaced KidAmn)
Almost50
Titus

Punreader (replaced CheekyTeeky)
eddie

To be fair, punreader's posts on page 21 are so scummy that he's easily overtaking you as my strongest scumread, so there's your boon for the day.

Btw

I was never hard-scumreading you in Necromancer like I was Brass/Kokichi/Tywin, so that overreaction is very interesting.

These are the Ank side, and it's worth looking at the Eddie side too, but basically Eddie freaked out about being a scumread

before

he had even replaced into the game, on page 20. (his replacement, for reference, comes on page 23) Ank's reaction however, is WAY more interesting. Instead of pointing out that she was still catching up and that this was a reads list from before eddie himself was in the game, she immediately points out that another player (pun) is becoming more scummy and that Eddie shouldn't expect her to be able to read him because she wasn't even hardscumreading him in a recent game.

:thorface:

Bottom of 36:

Now I'm thinking {Almost50 + Gorkington + Eddie} with Nos substituting if there's a town there.

This is fairly representative of Ank's reads lists while catching up. There's not a lot of substance, when you look at them. Consistently, she's naming the people in my PoE pool as scummy, but the names are usually EVERYONE in my PoE pool (other than Nos) or different every time. For the record, this is NAI, not scummy, but I disagree entirely with a townread based on this level of content.

Votecount 2.02

Titus (4)

Punreader , Stop Getting Banned Again , EspeciallyTheLies , eddie , L-2

Nosferatu (4)

Jingle , Titus , Almost50 , Nosferatu , L-2

Not Voting (5)

Draynth , Ankamius , Porkens , Gorkington , Ginngie ,

Day two deadline is Thursday May 24, 6 PM PST. (expired on 2018-05-24 18:00:00). With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch!

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

[/size]

First of all, since when do dead slots have a vote?

Second, look at this:

ETL, Jingle, Stop Getting Banned Again, and Nosferatu are all scumreading Almost50.

Punreader, as far as I can tell, has been townreading Almost50 ever since early on in their replacement, only detailing that Titus-scum would increase the chances of Almost50-scum.
Draynth, besides not being here how, hasn't mentioned any read on Almost50 in two weeks (which was lean-scum anyways).

Gorkington hasn't stated any read on Almost50 since page 32, which was in itself vague.

eddie has never stated a read on Almost50 except for a recent... null read I assume?
Titus thinks the scumteam is Eddie/SGBA/Punreader, assuming a townread on Almost50 either to create that PoE or because of that team scumread.

This means that all my strong townreads are scumreading Almost50, yet nobody else is.

I don't think this is a coincidence at all.

This is the definition of low hanging fruit. Look, all of the universal townreads (and Nos) are scumreading this player and no one else is. This is not a reason A50 is scummy. This is a reason A50 is a good target for scum. Rereading A50 to check if derptown or obvscum is now a high priority, as is my reset on Nos.

Also, notably, Ank has expounded on the A50 read as A50 is scum because he's not town, which is pretty :thorface: in context.

Like

If we don't get a scumflip today

I honestly don't know if town can win if my read on the gamestate is at least reasonably accurate barring a huge cop guilty chain or other mechanics, which I try to not rely on whenever possible.

This, frankly, doesn't make any sense. Ank is hardtownreading 4 people. 3 of those people are universal townreads. It is day 2. The only way we're in a bad position here is if town is incompetent or scum has infiltrated the universal townreads. Ank clearly doesn't believe the latter, and I don't think from context that Ank believes either me or ETL to be incompetent, so the former doesn't make sense either. From my PoV this looks like a great place to be as town. This looks way more like what scum should be thinking at this point in the game.

Well

yeah

Almost50 is obvscumming

:thorface:

tbh

If I end up dead tonight, then your reads probably have a lot of merit.

Until then, I don't really agree outside of eddie.

If Ank scum, Titus town.

tl;dr, Pun, I'm gonna need that Ank towncase after all.

Also what do you make of Jingle’s soft defense of A50 while attacking Ank?

[Ankamius]

I want claims to conclude before I go into other stuff.

[Ankamius]

But yes Titus needs to reset since she's proven wrong on two reads now

[OnTheMark]

I want claims to conclude before I go into other stuff.

That’s fine.

My question is to Titus not you.