Open 720: NOIR (GAME OVER)

[mutantdevle]

You're supposed to crumb hider targets, not results

Didn't want to do that since I knew scum thought I was the vig so I wanted to play as "frustrated vig who couldn't get his kill done and probably dead on N2".

Oh and by the way, scum probably knows who the real vig is now since no one died today, so they must've jailkept him/her

Or... we don't have a vig?

[mutantdevle]

Shouldn't rule out tracker but I can't imagine not taking vig with fuckin NM in the game

If there was a vig, surely they'd have killed NM N1? They obviously weren't jailed then. We have a tracker, not a vig.

[mutantdevle]

Actually it must be unless they shot Pint N1

Why would they shoot Pintu? If we had a vig, NM would be dead. Our other PR is the tracker.

[mutantdevle]

There are pros and cons for scum to jail/not jail pin tonight. I'm not sure how +ev it is for us to go through them all.

Maybe we table this until later in the day? If we don't come up with a plan, you can always try to make a super subtle 1859 reference to clue me into a crumb.

If they don't jail you, they also won't be killing me.

I think whether or not Pintu gets jailed would be somewhat telling of the personalities of the scum members. The only way I see them not jailing Pintu is if they are confident they're about to shoot his target. If that happens, the question would be which members would have that kind of confidence?

[mutantdevle]

Ngl my last few posts here feel quite shit considering most of my concerns in them are answered literally a few posts down from where I quoted :3


Also, are we so sure now that them killing a PR N1 was them getting lucky? I mean, they jailkept 1 PR and killed another on N1 and then were so confident in their jailkeep that they decided to try and kill said PR on N2. The probability of all that simply being them getting lucky is incredibly low and improbable imo. I get the feeling that the scum has at least 1 person who is good at PT hunting. So my question here is which players fit that profile?

[mutantdevle]

tracker has no reason to claim unless they have a guilty in which case they should probably

Thanks for this insight. I'm sure the tracker would have just randomly claimed without reason had you not said this.

[mutantdevle]

Tbh I think I prefer NM > Alonzo > mutantdevle.

I don't know why though.


Also, I can't actually remember why anyone, other than pintu, is scum reading me?

[mutantdevle]

Remember to declare intent to L-1 this time around to give mutant the chance to claim

Yes, this please.

[mutantdevle]

I don't want to get fucked over by the very thing we could have destroyed yesterday.

[mutantdevle]

Both of the conf!town are voting mutant, so good sheeping there.

Being conf!town doesn't make them right. It just lets us know they aren't pushing from a scum agenda. I suppose, at the very least, with every misslynch that the confirmed townies are on the more obvious the scum become. I'd prefer that misslynch not being me though if that's not too much to ask.

[mutantdevle]

Alternatively, we could just avoid a mislynch altogether by going for NM.

[mutantdevle]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[mutantdevle]

pinturicchio - Town obviously.
jjh927 - I like their replace in and I think they've redeemed this slot by being so much better in contrast so I think town.
havingfitz - Scum from PoE. I scum read their predecessors for reasons I've mentioned earlier and he hasn't really done anything since replacing in.
Alonzo - Town, I've explained this before and just don't see them as scum.
Quick - PoE would suggest maybe scum but I gut feel this as town.
Oxy - Town obviously.
Sando - This is so obviously town.
MOMOMEN - I really think this is scum that's been pulling strings amongst the town. They strike me as the only player that hasn't been confirmed as town who is capable of being this good at scum hunting.
Not_Mafia - I regret not dealing with this sooner. Should have been lynched day 2. Probably scum but who cares anyway because we need him gone before day 5.

[mutantdevle]

and that interaction between quick and fumuki... I will be impressed if they are scum partners.

I must admit I did not factor interactions into that reads list. That was purely off the top of my head. Maybe I thought about the interactions subconsciously and hence why I gut town read Quick. Tbh, I think my read on Quick is mostly paranoia since my read on them has been cosine all game.

[mutantdevle]

korina and fumuki came in with the plan to rvs fake claim scum

I doubt they planned it but it's what happened and it felt weird at the time and nothing has particularly redeemed either slot in my eyes.

[mutantdevle]

KTS and I did extensive metadiving.

Mind telling us what you found and why you think I'm scum for it?

[mutantdevle]

The people who want to lynch NM - Is this based on a meta read, or because he is difficult to read and has lol hammered two town?

He fucks up Mylo
He's always anti-town
I can't read him

[mutantdevle]

Does that really matter though? He needs to be out of the game.

[mutantdevle]

Intent to give NM the lolhammer on mutant.

Assuming this is intent to L-1.


This game gets pretty demotivating when town is doing so badly and mafia is clearly stronger than anyone seems to be giving them credit for as well as very few people actually listening to you. Well, I am the tracker. Quick was up to nothing N1 and I got no result N2. So mafia has a 100% jailkeep / attempted kill rate on PRs. Excuse me if that lowkey worries me. Obviously, that's telling that the mafia are good PR hunters which is something at least. I was a bit paranoid throughout day 2 that maybe Oxy was scum going for the successful WIFOM by outing that they spotted the worst's crumb and he was my first thought when I saw I had been jailed. Obviously, Pint clears him. The only other person I can think of that might be that good of a PR hunter is MOMOMEN.

I was originally going to choose vig but since Fumuki and Korina replaced out I felt there wasn't enough policy that needed to be dealt with. Obviously, N_M was a problem but I expected there to be more support for him being lynched day 2 and even if I was to shoot him then who do I shoot after that? Vig is such a dangerous role and, as many people like to remind me frequently, my reads are shit. I could always just not shoot people but I figured that would be a waste of the vig role and that we'd get more utility from tracker. I wish I didn't make that decision because I have a horrible feeling that NM is going to live to MYLO.


MOMOMEN since you're obviously not going to agree with me that it's you who has essentially outed/killed all our PRs, who do you think would somehow be figuring out all these PRs? This question sorta applies to everyone tbh because I don't know everyone in this game too well.

Pintu and Oxy are confirmed town.
I'm too confident that Sando is town.
I highly doubt Quick would be finding PRs on this level (no offence).
I don't recall NM ever being a good PR hunter?
I've seen them do well as a PR so maybe Fitz.
jjh idek. They seem intelligent so possibly but I read them as town.
Alonzo could be but, again, idk.


Personally, the only people I'm excluding from my lynch pool are Oxy, Pintu, Quick and Sando. If either Quick or Sando are scum then I think we'd easily get them after their buddies. Take everything I say with a grain of salt though because, at the moment, I'm neither properly confirmed town nor are my reads too good.

Can y'all start appreciating me a little more now? Thanks.

[mutantdevle]

Btw mutant, you're barking up the wrong tree. I still maintain that nobody's PR hunting is going to be significantly better than random chance, and I'm pretty sure Eddie agrees with me

I'm sorry but I just don't see a way that mafia are this on point with nailing PRs without at least being good at PR hunting. Sure, luck is an aspect as without investigatives they could never be 100% sure. But at least one person on their team knows what to look for and clearly the rest of the team have enough confidence in them to listen to them and go through with it.

Also, ofc Eddie would agree, he's part of my main suspect for it. From my point of view, that's exactly what he'd be saying to invalidate this 'tell'.

[mutantdevle]

@mutant why do you think the scumteam would jail you?

I mean, evidently, they interpreted my behaviour as PR!me. I feel like they did the same to you since I don't really see them picking up your crumb unless they are hardcore fans of the song (wouldn't surprise me though because it is a good song). Furthermore, it literally can't have been your crumb since they jailed you before you made it. The scum has at least 1 person that can spot PT tells from general thread interactions.

I think they definitely picked up on the worst's soft though and hence killed him first as they were the most confident in him.

[mutantdevle]

Hey @mutant another thing, what do you think about jjh and momomen being on your wagon? 'Cause they know that Not_Mafia would lolhammer you and scum would want that situation since they knew you were the tracker, right?

MOMO I'm definitely scum reading and they've been scum reading me all game so I'm not surprised by their vote at all. I like JJH though. They seem quite friendly with MOMO but, as I understand it, they know each other quite well? So it's only natural that they'd sheep em a bit. Townies can be wrong too.

[mutantdevle]

I think Sando is also Sus.

I don't think I'm ever going to understand why anyone could scum read Sando this game. Mind explaining this a bit? I'll probably think you're wrong anyway but I'd still like you to justify it.

[mutantdevle]

Sure. Hider picks three people that they could potentially hide behind that are all TRs. This clears people from being Mafia and keeps our Hider alive.

I swear this always gets suggested to hiders and its always a bad idea that doesn't achieve much. The whole point of announcing a target is so that we know if the hider dies then the person they announced is scum. If you say 3 people, that just brings confusion. Your lynch pool is now between 3 people and for all we know we could be heading for 2 mislynches before we get anywhere. Also, if we do get scum from that pool, how do we know it was the specific person the hider hid behind? There could be more scum in that pool. If someone in that pool was someone we all thought was scum anyway, we lynch them because it's safest and they are scum, then if the hider didn't hide behind them then it would be such a waste since we probably would have caught that person anyway and the hider died needlessly.

Pintu should either specifically claim who he hides behind OR say nothing about it at all. Personally, I think that choice is up to him.

[mutantdevle]

Eh, it's a solved game anyway, and I can make it more solved for everyone else. I'm the real tracker.

VOTE: mutant

Random checked quick n1 who did nothing, and I checked pintu last night. Seriously thought I had a guilty because he didn't crumb targets but I'm glad I waited for the hider claim thing to resolve

Well I'm no longer liking JJH as town

Why did you decide to check Pintu?

[mutantdevle]

Also, it's quite a coincidence that that Random happened to track the same person I did is it not

[mutantdevle]

I mean, it might be a good call if you want me to get a track off, but we're gonna have to lynch mutant eventually

I'm sure you'd prefer the eventually to the immediately.

[mutantdevle]

I'm maybe 50/50 between mutant and Alonzo for the jailkeeper fwiw

I think this is a comment that is too sure to come from Town.

Are you suggesting a JJH & Alonzo scum team?

[mutantdevle]

I wouldn't hide behind quick. 2/3 he's town just on the track N1

Keep in mind this is for if either of us is lying so you can trust it fully.

[mutantdevle]

NM is a mislynch target as town, getting scum to shoot him makes towns job a lot easier.
NM as scum gets found by you hiding, making towns job a whole lot easier.
Only way to stop one of the above happening is to jail you and not the tracker, making towns job a whole lot easier.
Only way to stop one of the above happening and town getting another track result is to jail you and solve our tracker problem, making towns job a whole lot easier.

I've found Sando really agreeable with what he's been saying these last few pages and I really like this plan.

Unfortunately Pintu it's your job to die,

we all wish it was Quick though,

to increase town's chances as much as possible.

[mutantdevle]

Iconeum was the counterwagon for scum!mutant.

This troubles me because my wagon started after Icons...

Pintu why can't you return the favour I gave you earlier in the game of admitting your bias

[mutantdevle]

we now know definitively if NM is the tracker or not.

Damn milktanks stealing our roles!

[mutantdevle]

there is no point in not CCing if you're blatantly obviously the tracker to scum.

This doesn't even make sense. There was never any reason for anyone to believe you were a tracker and in the world where you're tracker you didn't get jailkept so how are you obviously tracker to the scum at all?

[mutantdevle]

...is that a slip

No. Sando was just anticipating the potential of scum claiming tracker since scum tends to fake claim, as you have proven.

[mutantdevle]

Eh, it's a solved game anyway, and I can make it more solved for everyone else. I'm the real tracker.

VOTE: mutant

Random checked quick n1 who did nothing, and I checked pintu last night. Seriously thought I had a guilty because he didn't crumb targets but I'm glad I waited for the hider claim thing to resolve

Well I'm no longer liking JJH as town

Why did you decide to check Pintu?

Why are you attempting to engage with me? I checked Pintu because I scumread Pintu but he wasn't going to get lynched over the natural course of the game like my other scumreads.

There are 2 reasons why I will continue to interact with you. First of all, there are association tells. Second of all, I'm fully aware that more people scum read me than they do you so obviously I'm going to apply pressure to you until it becomes obvious that you're scum.

[mutantdevle]

MOMOMEN since you're obviously not going to agree with me that it's you who has essentially outed/killed all our PRs, who do you think would somehow be figuring out all these PRs? This question sorta applies to everyone tbh because I don't know everyone in this game too well.

How did I out or kill TW? Scumreading him makes him less likely to be killed and I actively avoided wagoning him.

How did I out Pintu? Wait, I didn't, Pintu outed Pintu because scum jailed him.

How did I out JJ? Wait, I didn't, you did by fakeclaiming Tracker.

What PR did scum figure out, exactly?

Why are you playing dumb? I'm obviously not trying to say you outed them in the thread. I'm clearly suggesting that you are scum and hence responsible for the deaths, jails and hence claims of all 3 TPRs.

[mutantdevle]

Vig is such a dangerous role and, as many people like to remind me frequently, my reads are shit.

Except town!you has actually good reads.

Lol you just lost all credibility in saying you are familiar with my meta.


I've calculated my own reads success rate outside of any games.

My town reads are 50% accurate.
My scum reads are 20% accurate.
My null reads are 80% town.
(rough estimate of course).


I'm literally known by a few people to have terrible reads but other redeeming qualities (such as the ability to acknowledge said shit reads).

[mutantdevle]

The only other person I can think of that might be that good of a PR hunter is MOMOMEN.

And unfortunately, your case falls apart because simply researching my past discussions shows I think PR hunting is stupid and irrelevant and going into any of my past scum PTs shows I don't even try to look for or target PRs.

You're obviously not the only candidate lol. The confidence aspect of repetitively getting PRs just fit your personality.

[mutantdevle]

mutant....is Not_Mafia still scum in your opinion based on game events since you voted him?

Also, why are you not voting your counterclaim?

I've never had a read on NM, I rarely ever do. I was all for his policy lynch yesterday. We're now at a stage where I don't think we can afford to waste a lynch on him but at the same time, he's still a threat. Hence why there's been discussion around him involving us PRs targetting him in order to sort him that way.

And I'm not voting for JJH because I don't think it's optimal play to have them lynched. Scum have put themselves in a position where they can't have me die or they'll lose JJH. At the same time, I can't have JJH lynched because it means I'll be killed. Additionally, the rest of town, regardless of how they read each of us, they also can't push either of us because it means they lose the tracker either way. Now, of course, we could get 1 confirmed scum right now - but that's a 50/50 chance. But we have the chance to get 2 confirmed scum which is a lot more valuable.


I like this post from you though Fitz, please redeem your slot before MyLo.

[mutantdevle]

I mean, y'all realise that lynching either of us is as good as straight up lynching the tracker right?

[mutantdevle]

Now, mutant claimed without posting any crumbs. I'm not going to check mutant's ISO again, but I wouldn't be surprised if you find a crumb on D2 implying he was the vig to back up an eventual fakeclaim where he has to 1v1 me, who the scumteam thought was the vig.

The fuck is this point? You've basically just said "he didn't do a thing and that makes him scummy, but even if he did do that thing, he's scummy anyway, because I'm biased as shit".

Like Jesus Pintu calm yourself down there. You want me lynched. We get it. You reaching and pulling up every 'scummy' point about me you can physically manifest won't give you your misslynch any faster.



And if you are genuinely interested in my crumb policy for future games, then just know I usually only crumb when it has a purpose. Such as conveying secret information to my mafia team. My only exception to this thus far is be someone else mafia where I wanted to make as many sheep puns as possible because I felt like it but then gave up after like 3 or something. You can even go ask NSG about that if you want to. I had no reason to crumb as tracker this game as I had no decent results.

[mutantdevle]

I mean, y'all realise that lynching either of us is as good as straight up lynching the tracker right?

I realize that doing what you want is doing what the scumteam would want so yeah, you got the tracker out, good job, and good night

So you're willing to put town at a disadvantage purely because you're confident in 1 scum read... gotta love the confirmed innos.

[mutantdevle]

"i'm down to kill the wrost"

ouch

You gotta love how much discussion went into your kill considering how heavily town discussed it the next day

[mutantdevle]

Also love that I called the main threat to town being NM jailer like 4 days ago

Honestly it was so fun seeing y'all be like "Nah N_M can't be the jailor because they're bussing him!"

[mutantdevle]

You were good Sando, forgot to give a shout out

Personally, I found Pintu and Sando to be our biggest threats. I very much enjoyed my heated debates with Pintu and Sando was so damn accurate with Scum5. Had I been town, I'd have been following Sando a lot so I decided to do so as scum knowing that it potentially paints him as a scum buddy trying to keep me alive :3

[mutantdevle]

I was up for the tracker plan until you told me not to be

Also by eod I was 90% sure scum would kill you anyway and just throw mutant under the bus, main part was to not CC and trust where I was directing.

You're correct. I was more than prepared to be thrown under the bus and I would have pushed for that in the scum PT. I had been heavily suspected since day 1 and I should have died then. I find it surprising I was allowed to live for so long and was anticipating my death each day.

[mutantdevle]

Sure there's plenty of town doing stupid stuff and scum doing townie stuff early game, so logical play isn't great. But by days 3+, the chances of scum playing illogically that entire time are basically zero, and logic based reads become much stronger.

I fully agree with this. Once you have mechanical information rather than just psychology, logic is the way to go.

[mutantdevle]

Lol @ the early celebration in the dead chat.

[mutantdevle]

viewtopic.php?p=10097071#p10097071

Answer: by writing enough BS and seeding enough doubt that they forget they have a very valid point against me

[mutantdevle]

Personally, I really enjoyed this game. That definitely wasn't an easy win and I feel like we definitely had to work for it.

My immediate concern was that NM was the jailkeeper. I honestly expected him to be policy killed quite early. I suppose it's lucky that there was no vig.

I was also concerned about the lack of activity in the scum PT, but that worked out in the end.

I'll definitely sign up for this if it's run again. Mainly to get the hider role though

[mutantdevle]

974 was hilarious btw

[mutantdevle]

NGL ducky the hyper posting was probably why I chose you from the list of people NM gave me. I wanted rid of the excessive pages just as much as the lurking townies :3