Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[yessiree]

VC 3.1

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

The Janitor (1)

- Ausuka

Not voting

- mutantdevle, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, davesaz, Eddie Cane, The Janitor, Iconeum, Taly, Ircher

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-06-03 13:00:00)

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Now I am CURIOUS for which game that had happened in, I remember several people assigned townreads to me BASED on my number in the early games SO if an ABSURDLY high number has been picked MORE OFTEN by scum I would like to see WHAT their rationale was.

THOUGH I do need to see WHOM gave me those townreads too, I do not recall Math-sensei as the only one...

pedit: BOT-SAN!! (ﾉ^ヮ^)ﾉ*:・ﾟ✧

[mutantdevle]

No scum has ever picked a number

that

high, but I don't think that's relevant to qualify as a 'high' number. The intent of picking said number is still the same in that you want to avoid duplicates by guaranteeing you are the highest unique number.

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

No I comprehend as much, but I am sure SOMEONE whom picked above 13 has happened before and THAT is what you are using as an EXAMPLE?

[Taly]

FUCK

We should've listened to Math...

[Taly]

Before I shower and then articulate my fucked midgame readskist, we need answers to 2 things

1) Janitor, what role did you go for?
2) Iconeum, who did you target last night and what results did you get?

[mutantdevle]

No I comprehend as much, but I am sure SOMEONE whom picked above 13 has happened before and THAT is what you are using as an EXAMPLE?

I classify 'high numbers' as numbers over 20.

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

viewtopic.php?f=52&t=74021 - 30
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=70532 - 16
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=67549 - 13 (scum)
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=65468 - 15
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=61277 - 15 (scum)
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=36653 - 13
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=29453 - 9002 (I GUESS I am NOT the highest (O_O ;;))

okay SO I guess this MORE than 20% BUT that does put some prospective on how ARBITRARY it is - MOST of the people picking HIGH numbers are STILL town mostly, the way you put it I was expecting only 1 iteration of a HIGH town number in MISATANGE and the rest being scum but I guess that is not the case (*・艸・)

I do not think Ircher is scum anyway, the neighborizer, even if GOOD for scum, is usually NOT picked by scum~

It never HURTS to crosscheck data!

pedit:

Taly-kun

do you read the thread? THOUGH I suppose getting

Iconeum's

target is GOOD information!

pedit: Soka! Then that means that TOWN has always picked it according to my data!

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

AUGH I am permitting EDDIE-KUN to INFLUENCE me negatively (҂⌣̀_⌣́)

[mutantdevle]

Based on role claims alone the scum are as follows:

Eddie > SIMYK >

{All the neighbourizer claims} >

Icon > Taly.

[mutantdevle]

@SIMYK you are missing several games.

This setup has been used in opens: 374, 427, 472, 486, 506, 518, 542, 579, 593, 630, 649, 675, 701.

I've extracted as much data as I can from these games to produce a series of statistics which I keep in a huge spreadsheet.

[Ausuka]

The draft analysis seems silly to me (other than scum coordination of numbers) because surely everyone aims for a PR regardless of alignment?

Roles and draft combined make Ircher town to me and I don't think it does that for anyone else.

[Ausuka]

Starting to think there's scum in {SIMYK, Taly}.

[mutantdevle]

Today is day 3 and we have killed 0 scum.

Most games end on day 3 / 4. Only 23% of games have made it to day 5 and there's never been a day 6.

Chances are, we have already lost this game. We are in perpetual MYLO which means we MUST kill scum every single day in order to win.

[mutantdevle]

The draft analysis seems silly to me (other than scum coordination of numbers) because surely everyone aims for a PR regardless of alignment?

Roles and draft combined make Ircher town to me and I don't think it does that for anyone else.

Yes, but HOW you go about getting those PRs varies. Scum have the advantage as they are able to co-ordinate their numbers.

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Arigato, for SOME reason when I control-f'd for PYP X/Y it ONLY went to 506... I will FINISH that digging now~

pedit: Ausuka-chan after some thought I do must agree that Ircher is more likely town by roles and draft combined aswell. He can ONLY be scum with a team with ICONEUM anyway and it MUST be one that believed they did not need a roleblocker since because they had the cop already.

pedit: E-eh? Ausuka-chan if that is the case you should be voting ME since because we NEED to lynch for the roleblocker

[Ausuka]

Yes, scum won't CC, but I don't think you can read into someone choosing a high number, for example.
PYP is 14p and we still have a mislynch.

[Ausuka]

Why should we prioritize roleblocker?

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Why should we prioritize roleblocker?

Since because we KNOW that either SCUM picked the roleblocker AND we have a LIMITED pool of people whom CAN be a roleblocker in {davesaz, me, janitor, eddie, taly, mutant} and an EVEN MORE limited pool of who is LIKELY to have picked it based on NIGHT ACTIONS and by DRAFT in {davesaz, me, janitor}. Even less likely is that it is DAVESAZ, so if there is a roleblocker it is BETWEEN myself and janitor!

It is ALSO possible that ICONEUM is LYING, which will be REVEALED if that is the case after Janitor or I am LYNCHED.

I do not perceive a logical reason to lynch within a LARGER pool when we have a pool that is ENSURED to have a scum in it.

[mutantdevle]

As a townie, I need to correctly identify

3

5 other townies and 3 scums in order to win the game. Forgive me if I don't seem too interested in forming reads this day phase because I'm going to attempt to solve this game mechanically rather than through reading into too much of what people post.

The cost of solving a game mechanically means I'm almost certainly going to be biting a night kill if I reach any degree of success, so not only do I need to achieve that success, but I also need to convince the rest of you towns to sheep my conclusions once I am dead. This will be especially hard since a few of you seem put off by the whole premise of mechanically solving a game.

So it's fair to say I'm not feeling confident about winning this game - but with a little luck and a little faith from my fellow town members we could come back from our disadvantage here.

Pedit: lol, I thought this was a 12 player game instead of 14 for some reason. You're right that we still technically have a mislynch. But since a mislynch and 3 scum lynches means we'd make it to day 6, I doubt that's how the game would end considering day 6 has NEVER been achieved.

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Mutant I SYMPATHIZE with your stance but it will be DIFFICULT for me to be won over IF I cannot see the information that has LEAD to your conclusions. I preposterize that will come in your FINAL post? (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

[mutantdevle]

but I don't think you can read into someone choosing a high number, for example.

I can and I will.

Draft number alone is not enough to conclude scum, but I WILL be using it as evidence.

[mutantdevle]

Mutant I SYMPATHIZE with your stance but it will be DIFFICULT for me to be won over IF I cannot see the information that has LEAD to your conclusions. I preposterize that will come in your FINAL post? (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

I will give information as and when appropriate. My spreadsheet will always remain private though.

[mutantdevle]

Well I'm off for the night.

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Mutant I SYMPATHIZE with your stance but it will be DIFFICULT for me to be won over IF I cannot see the information that has LEAD to your conclusions. I preposterize that will come in your FINAL post? (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

I will give information as and when appropriate. My spreadsheet will always remain private though.

That is fair! I just do not understand the conclusion of how my pick for example makes me more likely scum, or that Eddie-kun's does? I understand it is SUPPORTED by past games BUT it becomes meaningless to everyone else if we cannot see WHY that is the case ╭( ･ㅂ･)و ̑̑ ＂