Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[MariaR]

She gambits as scum

Day 1 she softs some role. She never softs obviously as town

It's not a gambit when my role is provable

[MariaR]

Kaede, for the record, the only reason we didn't initiate on Kokichi a lot earlier in the day was because you were townreading there and in hindsight Kokichi has gone out of his way to deliberately pocket you so I'm not sure how much I trust your read there rn.

Then I suggest you read D1 of DRV3 Upick then.

That's not EVEN A GOOD REF I would know I modded the god dam game

[MariaR]

Like Kokichi is prob town but at least use a good source of info

[Ankamius]

I don't want to lynch town

[Impossibear]

The mafia cannot have power roles when the town has a limited supply. To compensate for the power of the mafia roles, the town would thus need a significant number of power roles. Most of the game in fact. In an 18 player 4-scum game with all goons, you can expect the town to need about five strong power roles (we are talking ungated vigilante levels of strong), or about 7 weaker power roles. That is for a punteam without power. Give all the pun power roles, then suddenly you're looking at a figure of 7 stronger power roles (full ungated vig, strong) or about 10-12 weaker ones. 10-12/14 total town members.

How does this align with the added consideration of confirmable roles, unkillable semiconfirmable roles, and the heavy implication from our role PM that one of the scum roles is intentionally designed to fuck with our role specifically?

I can attest that pun's setup spec is likely accurate, regardless of their alignment, from a purely theoretical standpoint btw. If I'd have to, I'd say they're probably slightly worse at speccing individual roles than me, but significantly more in tune to the modern belief of balance re: how much power town needs.

Also, do you agree with taking the specific names off of the lynch table for today that I specified earlier?



Dunn has a soft inno result of some variety from Maria, btw, and is thus a terrible wagon for today. Tomorrow? Sure. Not today though.

[Kokichi Oma]

Like Kokichi is prob town but at least use a good source of info

Ftr, maria would never post this as town.

[Kokichi Oma]

I can maybe settle with wraith. But no one has told me why Dave is a bad lynch

[Ankamius]

Why do we need to sort him today

[OnTheMark]

Why do we need to sort him today

The better question is why don’t we sort him today?

Moving the burden of proof off of Dave lynch is the wrong way to think about it.

A cop comes in and says “Hey look at all this stuff...This Guy is in a gang lock him up”

The typical response is “OK.”

Unless someone has evidence to the contrary.

[OnTheMark]

Right now

As I have said
There is a missing kill
He’s playing to his scum meta
People are defending him without stating reasons, just saying he is town.

This setup necessitates a scum doc and my role matches my flavor and Dave could very well be a scum doc.

[Ankamius]

Because...

We don't need to? There's several other possibilities for why a scumkill didn't happen last night so it's not a very convincing guilty to me

[MariaR]

Like Kokichi is prob town but at least use a good source of info

Ftr, maria would never post this as town.

mhm.

[OnTheMark]

Because...

We don't need to? There's several other possibilities for why a scumkill didn't happen last night so it's not a very convincing guilty to me

Again we have been over this.
Yes there is ONE other possibility if you’re townreadinf ETL.

That’s scum shot ETL.

Another protective existing and saving the missing kill would be a scum protective due to setup spec and lack of claim.

Should that said protective exist that would mean scum nightkilled and protected their own kill or ETL is scum. So please say “another protective” again.

[OnTheMark]

I mean we still have the following possibilities
ETL was shot
ETL is actually scum that shot MWNN
Scum also shot MWNN
Dave is scum that got rb'd
I got shot and saved by a doc
Ouroboros got shot and saved by a doc.
Scum no killed.

ETL was shot. This one is valid, but no one attempted to analyze if this world is true. So I doubt it.
If ETL is scum no one is scumreading them.
I suggested scum shot MWNN and was laughed at when I tried so no.

Dave is scum that got roleblocked so far the most likely.
Kaede getting shot and saved by a doc necessitates ETL scum due to prior setup spec, so going with no otherwise the first option would be considered.
Ouroboros ...Same as Kaede
Scum no killed....Just...no

[OnTheMark]

So I absolutely refuse to believe that ontop of having a BP vig there is another town protective besides me.

If you want to argue that feel free, but they’ve had ample time to claim and haven’t.

[OnTheMark]

So order of likelihood to me is
Dave is scum
ETL is SK
ETL is scum vig

Those are the orders of likelihood for me.

I don’t see a Dave Town and ETL town world and a missing NK.

[Wraith]

Scum!OTM would have needed alot of planning and part of the planning would have meant Hebi deliberately breaking rules to pull it off. If that was the case you would have been guaranteed a modkill. That alongside impossibear's reasoning makes OTM pretty damn near conf!town to me.

Fair point

[OnTheMark]

So yes let me know of some other possibility.

Otherwise Dave is most likely scum and people keep suggesting shit to make it not a thing. It pisses me off.

[OnTheMark]

So a Dave flip goes miles to sorting both ETL and Jungle. Especially if the day cop is a load of horse shit.

[Wraith]

Let me try this again before I fully catch up/ISO people or get mislynched, since the day is winding down to that.

Wilky

hebichan/OnTheMark

Kaede Akamatsu

MariaR
Ramcius
Ankamius

Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)

Tchill13/punreader
Dunnstral
verylazy/Kokichi Oma

Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle)

davesaz

Alchemist21

Nero Cain/projectmatt

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

So that's an eight-player scum pool. Doesn't tell us much.

Personally, before ISOing, I think Ramcius is lynchbait and lean more town-ish for Ank due to end-of-D1 interactions regarding Vent

Leaving six: OTM, Maria, Ank, Tchill/pun, Dunn, Kokichi, and Nero/Matt

Let's eliminate OTM for now as I have been too fixed on him lately. Let's also eliminate TChill/pun since I'm caught up on them - I scumread TChill obviously but I liked pun's early posting.

Leaving four to ISO. I think at least two of the scum are in the pool of Maria, Dunn, Kokichi, and Nero/Matt. I'll see if I keep that opinion when I'm closer to finishing.

[Wraith]

Once again I

strongly

argue against lynching Dave today. If Dave flips Town then it means OTM will likely get rope tomorrow, even though the possibility that OTM/hebi are being truthful and were just wrong about how the scum directed their N1 shot remains open.

[Dunnstral]

If Dave flips Town then it means OTM will likely get rope tomorrow

No it doesn't

[OnTheMark]

Once again I

strongly

argue against lynching Dave today. If Dave flips Town then it means OTM will likely get rope tomorrow, even though the possibility that OTM/hebi are being truthful and were just wrong about how the scum directed their N1 shot remains open.

I am not getting rope like ever for the points you mentioned.

Even if Dave is town I have outlined why and then makes ETL have a lot of explaining to do and if the check comes back town and Dave town we know major shenanigans

[Wraith]

A Dave Town flip - which I currently believe to be the case - will give the town nothing of value outside of casting severe shade on OTM. In the wake of the RB literally every player has a viable excuse for suspecting Dave. So any reads based on how they viewed or voted Dave will be worthless.

[OnTheMark]

Dave flip + ETL cop gives us a damn good chance of figuring out what happened to the NK which then ensures we are all working from a good narrative.

Nothing sinks a game faster than bad assumptions.