In post 2293, Ircher wrote:Mutantdevle ISO:
1. In
231:
Mutant wrote:Unlike Math, I would like to be neighbourised
So far, I've been neighborizing my townreads (who I didn't think were going to be killed), but I think I am going to neighborize either you or Eddie next. Any particular reason you want to be neighborized?#
My reasons for wanting to be neighbourised are no longer applicable given the state of the game, so please ignore my request to be neighbourised. The reason I wanted to be neighbourised though is the same reason I planned to pick neighbouriser regardless of my draft order; my game plan was to use my meta-knowledge of this setup to help PRs decide how to use their night actions. For example, last time I played this game I was able to correctly predict a mafia night kill using my meta and prevent it as the doctor. Sadly, being new to the game I had given away my role so died the same night since they used a vig kill. I figured that I'd be able to have a greater impact by advising multiple PRs than being a main 1 myself. As a neighbour, I wouldn't need to know the identity of each PR, only know that the neighbouriser has contact with such PRs and hence able to pass on my information. If I was to discover my information was not being passed on or was being outguessed, that would help to identify the neighbouriser as scum. Obviously, with everyone's roles being outed, such game plan is redundant.
2. In
240:
Mutant wrote:Did these 2 games actually happen? If so, I'd appreciate being linked to them.
Remind me, why was this even a question at the time?
3. In
372:
Mutant wrote:It's unlikely that these games happened but still plausible so I still asked because if they do exist then I don't want to miss out on the data from them.
Regardless if this is truly your thought process, I still think that your post (and this thought process) has zero relevance to the game at hand, but meh.......
It was important to me as it would allow me to collect more data. The more data I have of past games the more confidence I can place in it. For example, the statistic that 100% of the people who have chosen the number 11 in the past have been scum hardly means anything when you take into account the number has only ever been chosen once. On the other hand, I'm confident in declaring your role as town given I have a data set of size 24 backing up a high likelihood you are. The more data I have, the more accurately I can say "the games follow this pattern".
4. In
373:
Mutant wrote:then top that with night kills,
Okay, I feel like the N2 kill was more or less obvious, so what are your thoughts on the N1 kill on The Worst? Do you think they got lucky in killing a PR, or do you think they found some PR crumb on The Worst?
I'm yet to look too much into NK analysis yet and I'll update you more on that when I get to it. But currently, I'm thinking it was probably luck. I'll look for crumbs later though. If we can determine the reason he was killed, we can determine whether his reads are relevant.
5. In
387:
Mutant wrote:This is probably a good thing.
(In response to my
346): Elaborate.
My reads are shit. Just straight up bad. Random lynching can be more accurate than them. Hence, if I'm not pushing my reads it's probably a good thing because I'm capable of being persuasive. Last time I played this setup I got the jailkeeper mislynched essentially for not answering one of my questions. I'm probably more useful working on the mechanical side of game solving.
6. In
415:
Mutant wrote:Add that to how Ircher seems intent on shutting down any form of setup spec and seems to focus too much on other people's reads (in my opinion) and judge them based on that.
I'm just going to ask you something: how can you read a person based on what they say about the setup (aside from glaring inconsistencies and misleading information)? If anything, scum have an advantage (3 to 1) in terms of knowing setup information, and even without that advantage, practically anyone who knows enough about the setup could post information about the setup, regardless of alignment. That is why I read people by their reads, and it is why I focus on people having reads and explaining the thought process behind those reads.
Honestly, I'm not bothered about making people town read me at the moment as long as they aren't trying to lynch me. You can trust what I say about the setup when the scum kill me for it. The longer I'm alive, the more damage I'm going to do to scum. So they must choose whether to kill me and give my words strength or keep me alive at the risk of me figuring them out.
7. In
432:
Mutant wrote:Cool, so I'm not going to read Ircher's huge post. If there's anything significant someone's just going to quote it anyway.
I'll CTRL+F for associations once we get some flips though.
Anti-town post, but not necessarily scum-motivated.
8. In
468:
Mutant wrote:I need substance to mutantcase, it's too early for that, + it's midnight for me and I'm going to bed. So maybe later, and later doesn't mean IRL tomorrow. Like it's quite early in the game, this read could drastically change by the end of next week. There's no point in casing something like this when it's heavily subject to change.
I would love if you really explained even one of your reads on the currently alive people (that doesn't boil down to basically being 100% setup speculation, which while that is fine in some cases, it doesn't help me discern your alignment.)
Once I'm done setup specing, I will tie it to actions in game as my 'mutantcase' in order to fully convince people of where I'm coming from. But like I say, I don't care for you discerning my alignment. I'm confident you're town and that's all I need from you.
9. In
563:
Mutant wrote:The longer I live the more setup spec I'm going to do and, with enough information, I could very well 'solve' the game rather than read it provided I can convince others of my point of view.
How do I determine your alignment then? How can I trust your setup spec if I cannot trust your alignment? You have to scumhunt and make your reads known for me to really be able to read you.
You can trust my words when I flip. If I don't get night killed sometime soon, you probably would have been instead. Ignoring that, you can get a read on me when I start pushing my conclusions.
10. In
564:
Mutant wrote:My meta and the ability to judge people on things other than their reads.
Name some of those other ways to judge people besides their reads and their meta.
Be specific.
How they react to pressure, their position on a wagon, their associations to others (in more than just a reads way), how they use their night actions, who has what read on them. Of course their own reads and meta play into it. But that's not exclusively the way to read someone.
Though, I don't know why you're asking me, I've never been too good at spotting 'tells'.
11. In
794:
Mutant wrote:If it's worth anything, I have a gut scum on ausuka that I'm heavily ignoring because there is literally nothing to it.
Maybe you already answered this (today, May 23) and I already forgot, but what exactly is your read on Ausuka again?
Still gut scum, but like I say, not focussing on reads today. I want to focus on setup spec.
12. In
980:
Mutant wrote:I can't both be vote parking AND pushing an old wagon.
Unless I'm mistaken, you are still voting me at this time... I can't remember any other wagon you pushed, so I'm not sure what you are stating here...
My point is that vote parking and pushing a wagon is 2 very different things. Vote parking is just leaving your vote somewhere without realing doing anything with it. When you're actively pushing the player your on, your vote isn't 'parked', it's active; even if useless. I wasn't pushing you, my vote was just sitting on you. Mainly because I don't tend to move my vote much.
13. In
1068:
Mutant wrote:There's only ever been 1 game where town has had both the 1 shot vig and the N3 vig...
This is such a crappy thing to rely on.
Yeah, this is kinda a concern actually. What are the chances that scum have the N3 vig and fakeclaimed? In that case, we are in Mylo right now. But if no one has the N3 vig/vengeful slot (cuz Vengeful isn't gonna claim due to autolynch), no lynching would be the wrong move... Any thoughts since you seem to be the remaining expert on the setup?
No lynching is a stupid idea and we're never doing it. It's both possible and evident given the role blocker that scum have lied about their roles, but it's not something we should read too much into as we simply can't tell if they have any unaccounted for roles.
14. In
1211:
Mutant wrote:Town:
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis
Town lean:
Iconeum
(Note: portions of this readslist were excluded). Please explain these two reads if they are still relevant.
Niether are presently relevant to me given the nature of how I'm going about today. SIMYK has definitely dropped though.
15. In
2209:
Mutant wrote:since scum did not get the role cop, I revoke my suspicion of Icon.
I don't see how that makes a difference? It seemed pretty reasonable to assume that Lalendra wasn't lying about their role, and I still think the simplest explanation is Iconeum is scum.
It makes a huge difference as my whole theory regarding scum!Icon specifically required scum to want the role cop slot. With Lalendra being scum, we have less evidence suggesting this is the case.
16. In
2238:
Mutant wrote: We are in perpetual MYLO
Not strictly true, but if we are lynching today, we need to lynch someone that we think have a 90% chance of flipping scum. We are either in MyLo today or 1 mislynch away from LyLo. I would assume the latter except the fact that scum may gambit with fakeclaiming...
Yeah I noted my mistake in a post later. I still consider us in a form of MYLO though given that no PYP X/Y game has ever made it to day 6 - which is the day we'd reach if we have 1 mislynch and 3 scum lynches.
17. In
2287:
Mutant wrote:Btw Ircher, mechanically, you are town. Not sure if that gives you any faith in solving in such a way.
I'm just saying we need to factor in reads as well...
Other Notes:
1. With the exception of 240, the first 17 or so posts of the ISO deal almost exclusively with setup spec. That is a bit excessive in my opinion.
Conclusions: To be quite honest, I really think I am leaning towards town here despite the "methodology-related" stuff that I seriously disagree with. Basically, I don't think I want to lynch this slot today.
Addendum @Mutant: What do you think the chances are that a scum vengeful fakeclaimed VT? What do you think the chances are that a scum N3 Vig fakeclaimed VT? What do you think the chances are that a town N3 Vig fakeclaimed VT AND would kill if our lynch today flips town? Do you think it is more likely that we are currently in MyLo (with a N3 vig that fakeclaimed or a vengeful that fakeclaimed) or 1 mislynch away from LyLo? Do you think it is better for us to No Lynch on the off-chance that we are in MyLo or to lynch under the hopes that our target is scum, or at least, we aren't in MyLo?
The probability that scum fake claimed each role is exactly the same as each other. If town has fake claimed VT at all, that's probably a good thing. It screws with my mechanical solving a little bit but that extra kill could mean the difference between winning or losing the game. As I said earlier, we're not no lynching.