Mini Normal 2010 - Scientific Mafia [GAME OVER]

[TwoInAMillion]

No, you were just being over sensitive.

[TwoInAMillion]

By process of elimination I would go with Dunnstral, KN15 or Hopkirk today.

[TehBrawlGuy]

I can get behind Hopkirk wagon. My vca from d2 pointed to him or TiaM. VOTE: hopkirk

[Hopkirk]

Town on town violence needs to end.
Scum wanted to lynch you d2.

[Gustavo]

v/la until Tuesday

[TwoInAMillion]

Town on town violence needs to end.
Scum wanted to lynch you d2.

Sounds like a scummy "Yay we lynched scum" thing scum would say.

VOTE: hopkirk

[Gustavo]

VOTE: tiam

[Hopkirk]

Town on town violence needs to end.
Scum wanted to lynch you d2.

Sounds like a scummy "Yay we lynched scum" thing scum would say.

VOTE: hopkirk

which bit? I don't really see how either could be interpreted that way.
a- Referencing him being probable town and voting me.
b- My scumpool only includes people who were voting TBG at the start of d2. Scum clearly need to push that slot when there's any doubt whether it's town among town.

[TwoInAMillion]

on wrote:
In post 578, Hopkirk wrote:
Town on town violence needs to end.
Scum wanted to lynch you d2.


Sounds like a scummy "Yay we lynched scum" thing scum would say.

VOTE: hopkirk


which bit? I don't really see how either could be interpreted that way.
a- Referencing him being probable town and voting me.
b- My scumpool only includes people who were voting TBG at the st

Just because you can "explain" your statement doesn't mean you're not trying to build towncred through presumptive town statements.

[Hopkirk]

Can't really respond since you didn't tell me which part you were talking about and I still can't tell?

[Archwing]

Prodding Dunnstral

[Dunnstral]

Day hasn't even been open for 48 hours, but here I am

I don't care who we lynch, I'm not scum and I'm not a good mechanical lynch

[TehBrawlGuy]

FTR I disagree that 578 sounds scummy, but I'm still content on hopkirk because of vca

[TwoInAMillion]

Honestly, 586 doesn't sound good either but I don't know that Dunnstral is the top priority atm.

[BuJaber]

Neither is hopkirk today if you ask me.

Brawl why do you think last scum would be on the wagon? You landed on the opposite conclusion than I from the wagon analysis.
And also hopkirk didn't vote for MB. Normally I'd be inclined to agree with you but since garuga hammered shoshin, I think the last scum would be off wagon.

[TehBrawlGuy]

I'll quote my old post here just to re-state it, but basically, I think you're putting too much weight on the hammer. Sho was pretty widely suspected, and with that run up to L-1, obviously going to be the lynch, so the hammer is free townpoints and/or free credence to Garuga's scumteam claim, depending on how he wants to play it. Garuga takes it there regardless of if anyone's on the wagon or not.

I think Garuga's earlier shifting between Sho and Screen, when the lynch was still up in the air, is far more indicative. If you go back and read it, it's pretty weird, and knowing Sho is Scum and Screen is Town, that makes sense because Garuga had to fabricate it. Why fabricate it, though, instead of just sitting on Sho without pushing to get free townpoints? If your partner is off Sho and wants to push elsewhere to secure the ML, you can just stay on. It makes the most sense to swap if your partner is already on Sho or wants to hop on her.

Interesting.

Sho's other posts in the hood before shit broke down were early D1. They were asking what we thought of Gustavo, who posts sounded off to her, and saying she thought Garuga was scummy for sounding afraid in his posts around the start of Page 2.

Now that we know that whole thing was a bus, I'm a lot less gung-ho about ScreenScum. Especially weird is that Garuga seemed to originally be leaning towards ShoScum and then pivoted away from that to go onto Screen. That pivot makes a lot of sense if you're trying to force a ML, but a lot less so if you're just shifting from one scummate to another. With Garuga off Sho, that would imply to me that the other Scum was either on Sho, or going to join the wagon soon.

The final VC was:
Shoshin (7):Srceenplay, BuJaber, TehBrawlGuy, Hopkirk, Gustavo, Mumble, Garuga
and TiaM was on Sho until the last second when he pivoted to Garuga over the scumclaim.

Screen I trust more as stated above
BuJaber literally called the hood in thread, which I doubt Scum would do.
I'm town fmpov obv
Gustavo's vote came hella late on sho.
Mumble and Garuga are dead and flipped.

So to me, that means I'd wager one of Hopkirk/TiaM is scum, outside shot at Gustavo. I'm flipping back and forth on who I think it is between them, but I'm pretty sure Scum is in that pile.

[BuJaber]

I admit I read it as garuga trying to save his partner from hammering.

While I can see your logic, the only overlap between my scum pool and yours is hopkirk.

I came up with my scumpool based on their play and then analyzed the wagons to see if it will change my mind or give me a new perspective.

I think it's helpful to look at but when their play seems townie I can't condemn them because of the VCA especially that there's guessing and WIFOM involved.

If you want to go hopkirk first I might be flexible on that. But I am not lynching TIAM and gustavo. Not while NK15 and dunn are alive.

But to be fair if hopkirk is town then he might be correct. Which would mean gustavo/TIAM contains scum for trying to lynch you brawl.

I think the town has too little consensus right now.
I'm most confident that scum is among NK15 & Dunn based on posts by the slots and their predecessors. Even the replaceout in this game might be indicative.

I don't know how much we can rely on the VCA because if what you're saying is true and they want credit for a scum lynch wouldn't they avoid a lynch on town? Gustavo/TIAM were on both wagons.

Is there a consensus on hopkirk as a suspect?

[ByronVilla]

I'm willing to lynch Hopkirk today. I want to give him some time to defend himself first (so I won't be moving my vote onto him for now), but I'm starting to view Hopkirk vs TIAM as not a TvT interaction. It just doesn't feel like one for me right now, you look at other generally agreed on TvT interactions and you see people are a lot more aggressive, whereas Hopkirk & TIAM seem to be unwilling to go that extra step. Then again it might be just that they have a form of emotional control, but I'm reading it as a PR vs scum right now, and if we have to choose between Hopkirk & TIAM as to who to lynch, I'd go with Hopkirk for now.

[Not Known 15]

I'm willing to lynch Hopkirk today. I want to give him some time to defend himself first (so I won't be moving my vote onto him for now), but I'm starting to view Hopkirk vs TIAM as not a TvT interaction. It just doesn't feel like one for me right now, you look at other generally agreed on TvT interactions and you see people are a lot more aggressive, whereas Hopkirk & TIAM seem to be unwilling to go that extra step. Then again it might be just that they have a form of emotional control, but I'm reading it as a PR vs scum right now, and if we have to choose between Hopkirk & TIAM as to who to lynch, I'd go with Hopkirk for now.

What about PR vs PR?

[ByronVilla]

I'm willing to lynch Hopkirk today. I want to give him some time to defend himself first (so I won't be moving my vote onto him for now), but I'm starting to view Hopkirk vs TIAM as not a TvT interaction. It just doesn't feel like one for me right now, you look at other generally agreed on TvT interactions and you see people are a lot more aggressive, whereas Hopkirk & TIAM seem to be unwilling to go that extra step. Then again it might be just that they have a form of emotional control, but I'm reading it as a PR vs scum right now, and if we have to choose between Hopkirk & TIAM as to who to lynch, I'd go with Hopkirk for now.

What about PR vs PR?

Yeah that's a possibility too now that I think about it, but there's already been a lot of roles revealed (Vig/Neighbors/Commuter if we believe Dunnstral) so I don't know what the chances of it are. Then again I'm no expert on set-ups so yeah we should be wary of it being PR vs PR.

[Hopkirk]

Did TIAM claim?
VOTE: TIAM

[ByronVilla]

TIAM hasn't claimed from what I can see. What about you? Am I right in thinking you have some sort of role?

[ByronVilla]

Well really I'd like to hear the answer to that question from both of you.

[Not Known 15]

Yeah that's a possibility too now that I think about it, but there's already been a lot of roles revealed (Vig/Neighbors/Commuter if we believe Dunnstral) so I don't know what the chances of it are. Then again I'm no expert on set-ups so yeah we should be wary of it being PR vs PR.

We have one EN commuter and one ON vig. Town neighbors are considered to be not powerful at all(basically along VT strength), Mafia Neighbors are considered to be stronger...
Commuter EN isn't very powerful... ON vig is powerful... scum neighbor is not very powerful....
3 scum... unless we have a very powerful PR such as... Cop... at least 2 PRs of considerable power might be on town's side.

[Hopkirk]

I have a role that's likely weak, slightly swingy.
That's why I was wondering if we should mass claim.
After looking at previous normals, thinking we should claim if we have roles, but not what they are.