so, last time i played in an 18 player game, there were 5 scum vs. 13 town. hence, i’m going to base my analysis off of that model. i think there are 3 scum remaining
acryon
103 : am i reading this right? “If someone leads us into a mislynch for the first one, do you think we follow that person into a second one?” this question rubs me the wrong way, for its motive more than anything. following screenplay’s townflip, who acryon asked this to, he has the option of using screenplay’s answer as a basis to lead another lynch; it yields exactly the type of info that could benefit scum. also, considering it’s a mislynch, why would it ever benefit town to immediately follow the same person that lead the mislynch again w/o due reason?
285 : kidamn is locktown; i don’t understand the fuss about them being locktown this early in the game. also, found screenplay to be the only clear scum member, which was false.
343 “town are much more likely to be disinterested than town?” what? i don’t follow that comparison.
beeboy
¡no hay nada! other than disappearance. i think it is likely scum caused taly and beeboy's disappearance, so early on i will lean town for both.
creature
322 : tempted townread for katsuki is poorly supported here.
guyinfreezer
79 : this post by guyinfreezer suggests more knowledge of the game setup than it’s letting on to; my question is how does he claim to know we’d be at LYLO after a double lynch and one more free lynch? does he have information that the rest of us don’t?
139 : i don’t follow the logic here, gif, because if beeboy and taly both disappeared and they were on the same scum team, that would be such a horrible strategy, because they’re drawing too much attention to themselves. if one flipped scum, think about it: wouldn’t you be all over the other person in hopes they’re a scum flip as well? this leads me to believe at least one of the pair is town for sure, if not both, provided there’s not more than one scum faction in play. for now, i’ll assume from the evidence we have that it’s town vs. scum head-on, and this leads me to an early townread for both beeboy and Taly, though this is tenuous and subject to change. i feel scum is directly responsible for their disappearances.
160 : dispensing forced townreads for your only thread given townreads is not very smart, esp. when no one ever asked you that directly. also, it doesn’t take much of a hard stance in a town-leaning direction. you either feel someone’s town, you don’t, or you’re in between. in the latter case, you shouldn’t announce that as your only townread. consider if you died out of nowhere; town being left with a stance like that is not very good for our prospects.
note: gif forced a townread kidamn there.
185 : gif forces his second townread on Tywin Lannister, who is now confirmed scum; so again, why did you "force" your townreads?
206 : not sure what in your early contribution makes you obv town, gif.
237 : playing w/o scumhunting sounds unreal to me; i mean, obviously if you’re a town player, you have to be looking for scum. so, saying you don’t scumhunt isn’t plausible to me.
350 /
351 : don’t like the way gif goes against his own reasoning here; wants to lynch screenplay because of obtaining lots of info, but also loath to join nico wagon, which at that point would have likely yielded no info at all. plus, y’know, they’re both townflips now.
408 : another contradiction from gif; says he wants info from screen lynch in
350 , but in
408 clearly states he’s lynching to kill scum, and NOT lynching screen for info.
477 : builds a case where he feels quite high on kokichi being scum, who is now conftown. reasons kokichi “looks like scum getting caught off guard.” that’s clear as day scumhunting in my book.
In post 479, Kokichi Oma wrote:Gif is scum who put 2 people at the bottom of his list who are known to be lynchbait at times day 1. turbo lynch this.
then there’s this post from kokichi, makes me want to keep an eye on gif for what went down n1.
katsuki
275 : prod dodging with a “prod dodge” post and then claiming to be scum jocularly in
278 , leaving us with nothing else to go off of is very abysmal town play if you are town.
kidamn
25 : oodles of fluff content to this post w/o any hard stances, and thus it drags on a bit unreasonably, so noted as a possible diversion post, meant to distract the analytical processes of town. scum live off avoiding hard stances wherever they can.
112 : if kidamn is scum, this is a clear attempt to gain towncred. reasons for voting out screenplay could also be used for reinforcing later arguments for scum to push against those who voted screenplay out. also, kidamn uses the fact that screenplay wanted 2 as opposed to 1 on the option palette as reason people would want to cast a vote against screenplay, and he see’s why. but again, kidamn never officially chose a particular option, and if anything option 2 he said would be the most conservative choice for town, implying that it may have been his choice if he’d committed.
193 : this is uber defensive, and about the most defensive you’ll ever see someone get who never even took a hard stance on a matter in the first place.
197 : again, kidamn avoids a hard stance! elects to not townread screenplay, but rather just question the votes that are on screenplay, but does not call out anyone in specific on their vote.
202 : kidamn back at it with being uber-defensive again. again, have to note all this happened after he never took a hard stance in any direction. does he really need to be THIS defensive here to this push against him when he implied earlier that option 1 was his least favorite for D1?
303 : FINALLY, a kidamn post that looks like a TOWN perspective to my eyes. i can get behind this one; i love how he defends screenplay here as a “path of least resistance” wagon/wagon of convenience, because looking back it definitely has that kind of feel. also, he commits to an option, finally taking a stance, albeit a soft one, on the options for D1.
misaka network
57 : for
Misaka Network is one that makes me lean town
for them; it'd be a bit complicated for scum to claim a double action role and call for a cop that early w/o risking facing the music.
nosferatu
85 : solid point concerning that the setup option on D1 could have been something like “x exists in the game”, which might be a little helpful to town, but i feel is more a detriment to town. conversely, i feel that more setup info could be an absolute benefit to scum in such a large game, so i got to keep my eyes on whoever voted
option 2
. remind me to investigate this later.
196 : nosferatu’s vote, hopping on to the screenplay wagon here, bothers me a bit. it don’t have much context to go with it, and it’s very bandwagon-y.
page 9
200 : nosferatu seems to agree with kidamn’s post concerning the bandwagon of screenplay, but also keeps her vote on screenplay w/o reasoning, so noted.
purrcocet
169 /
170 : entrance into the thread is quite loud, and he voices 3 scum reads, but there is no logic given in his assertions; just “feelings”.
177 : purrcocet comes out w/ talking about a fourth potential scumread; this one = kidamn. having made zero townreads, and using all caps in his posts, this would be quite a splash for scum to make right off the bat; it sure does draw a lot of attention to him. further, this isn’t a bad point. opposing a double lynch is a very beneficial thing for scum, esp. if they do not feel their faction members will survive it. also, i don’t believe scum would have any motive to call into question a poster that is against a double lynch.
taly
¡no hay nada! well, other than her disappearance.
wisdom
26 : clear contrast to kidamn’s
25 , wisdom is straightforward in considering all three, and DOES take a hard stance.
71 : hmm, wisdom was correct about this, so noting that.
243 i’m not quite sure why gif and kidamn were your biggest town reads at this stage at the game, as they both looked scummy to me at the time you made this posts. so, seems misguided.
can you please explain what stood out about these 2 being town reads in the early stages of this game for you?
up to page 20.
i want to make an active contribution, so i'll
vote: guyinfreezer
as i work on the next 20. i’ll get the next 20 in faster, changed my form of analysis midway. i’ll bring official TR/SR into play after i sort thru the next batch.
