Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Ircher]

Zzzzzzz
*pagetop*

[yessiree]

VC 3.4

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

The Janitor (3) [L-2]

- Taly, Iconeum, Ausuka

Iconeum (1)

- Ircher

Not voting

- mutantdevle, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, davesaz, The Janitor, Eddie Cane

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-06-03 13:00:00)

[Iconeum]

So assume I'm scum from my nr 1 position. Go look into the draft who is the next possible scum to choose something. Because if I'm scum cop, scum would also NEED to take the doc/RB slot because otherwise I can't claim being RB'd. That means scum effectively can't use the RB because that could compromise the claim. 2 PR's used for NO scum advantage, only town denial.

[mutantdevle]

Ircher was already locktown and Icon is still debateable. A Mafia Cop could definitely exist, 2 people is not a big enough sample size to judge whether mafia could go for that or not.

Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.

Furthermore, there can't both be a scum cop and a scum role blocker. We have mechanical evidence to confirm the theory that Icon is a town cop being role blocked by a scum role blocker who happens to specifically be Janitor - who can further be incriminated by his shitty play.

If you're scum reading the janitor, especially as the role blocker, then Icon should be town for you.

You realize 9 isn't a large sample size either. The prob. of scum cop seems pretty high to me. Scum!Icon can fakeclaim being roleblocked, and given the setup as it is in this iteration, can do so quite easily regardless of the presence of a mafia roleblocker.

That said, if Janitor does flip roleblocker, I'll reconsider my read on Iconeum.

9 is enough of a sample size for it to be useful. If something happens 9 times in a row, it's fair to assume there's a pattern going on. Of course, this doesn't mean the pattern can't be broken and there

could

be a scum cop. But "The prob. of scum cop seems pretty high" is blatantly wrong. A scum cop is an exception. There is a low chance of a scum cop occurring. The chance a cop is town is

far

greater than the chance a cop is scum. This is especially apparent given the circumstances where there is far more likely to be a role blocker than there is a cop lying about being role blocked.

[mutantdevle]

Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.

Yes, all cops choose town. That much was obvious already. What I'm focusing on is what scum chooses- what Ico!scum would choose. For that we have 2 scum who chose Redirector. I don't see how, from that, we can tell that Ico!scum would choose redirector.

The point of Ico!scum choosing redirector is 100% irrelevant since we KNOW that, regardless of alignment, Icon IS the cop. Why are you choosing to refute me on a point that has no impact on this game?

Here we have a reversal of a conditional probability, which can generally have surprising results.

Rather than the probability that a Cop is Mafia, Ausuka is looking at the probability that a mafioso picks Cop.
We have 0/9 Cops have been mafia, but we only have 0/2 Mafia choosing the redirector/cop slot being a cop.

Now, given the current stats, the probabilities for both are the SAME; however, we only have a sample size of 2 for the scum choices, so one can't put much faith into that value. Like, I really hope you understand what is being emphasized here, because if you are going to make predictions off of data, you have to do it correctly, and we cannot really afford any mistakes due to incorrect analysis.

Yes... and the point is that I'm not putting too much faith into the 0/2 but instead putting faith into the 0/9 ONTOP of other evidence... eg. the fact that Janitor falls into the likely RBer bracket suggests Icon is telling the truth further indicating he is town.

[mutantdevle]

Saying that town have picked cop 100% of the time they got that pick, and scum picked redirector 100% of the time is nice info but not predictive.
Assuming that a rolecop result of cop -> conf town merely because of the previous games stats is gambler's fallacy.

As scum I would really strongly argue optimal play is to pick Cop. Rolecop is too much of a threat. And the Watcher can catch a lie potentially.

yay random game irrelevant theory talk

how's it goin mutant

I don't really understand why mafia would pick redirector either. It's only 1 shot and it's most effective use would be to trick an investigative but that's hardly going to happen given the possible investigative roles.

I'm also prioritising coursework right now. I have a week to write about 15000 words :/

I game solve here to take a break from that

[Taly]

I'm really sorry guys, I have some posts almost ready to write and I'll have something up tonight.

Due to IRL events, I've been in a really shitty mood for the past 48 hours, to the point I can't think about mafia right now. :/

[Iconeum]

With all of you guys' solving going on, please answer me this:

Assume I'm town. Someone is first pick for mafia below me. Mafia KNOWS town has first THREE picks. What does mafia prioritize here with their first pick?

[Ausuka]

I would try for the RB.

[Iconeum]

I would try for the RB.

So saying Janitor is RB, is saying Janitor is top scum in the draft list.

It doesn't make sense. And no, I don't want to derail the lynch. I want to show he's unlikely to flip RB. That has the be higher up the list.

[Iconeum]

And so, there is RB scum (assuming town isn't blocking me) in Ircher or Saske.

[Ausuka]

Ircher can't be the roleblocker. SIMYK is, as I've been saying, very potentially scum RB, but Jan's RB flip would clear her so I dislike that lynch still.

[Iconeum]

I'm trying to show everyone where to lynch if/when Janitor flips scum but NOT RB.

And I fully agree it's SIMYK over Ircher.

[Ausuka]

No I meant that it literally cannot be Ircher who is the confirmed neighbourizer.

[Iconeum]

I keep forgetting that. We are lynching SIMYK tomorrow after Janitor flips scum.

[yessiree]

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis is being force-replaced for receiving another prod and may no longer post.

The Janitor has been prodded.

[Ausuka]

Lol

[Ausuka]

Someone hammer Janitor. I'm done with this game.

[Eddie Cane]

SIMYK was why I repped in

/yawn

[Eddie Cane]

VOTE: Janitor

[mutantdevle]

Someone hammer Janitor. I'm done with this game.

I'm not, please give me time...

[mutantdevle]

VOTE: Janitor

Why'd you vote back? Now I'm paranoid again...

[Eddie Cane]

Someone hammer Janitor. I'm done with this game.

agree with this sentiment

[Eddie Cane]

so how long do you need? the person I joined for got repped out so I'm not exactly thrilled

[mutantdevle]

I will drop this though, from what I've looked into so far I'm pretty sure the scum team is Janitor, Saske slot and either Taly OR Ausuka. I will explain this and back up such a claim later during this day (day 3, nor irl) but if you want to discuss that instead of getting bored and complaining about the day not being over then feel free to do so :3