Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[yessiree]

VC 3.6

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

The Janitor (3) [L-2]

- Taly, Iconeum, Eddie Cane

Katyusha (2)

- Ircher, davesaz

Not voting

- mutantdevle, Katyusha, The Janitor, Ausuka

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-06-03 13:00:00)

[mutantdevle]

Various people are doing a wonderful job of tracking claims.
What we're potentially overlooking is the unclaimed roles.
commuter/watcher
n3 vig / venge

I don't think the lack of these roles is too significant. In fact, these 2 slots are the least likely to occur in each game with a 50% and 66% occurrence respectively.

If we do have a member of the town fake claiming n3 vig / venge as VT, then that could definitely be the difference between winning and losing the game. In major contrast, if scum has either of those roles and is fake claiming VT then we have probably lost.

[Eddie Cane]

what if I'm scum vengeful and I'm secretly plotting to throw lylo and get lynched

[mutantdevle]

Iconeum 1 - Cop

the worst 3 - Jailkeeper

Lalendra 5 - Role Cop

Ircher 11 - Neighborizer
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis 413 - VT, Universal Backup/Rolecop

Mathdino 2 - 1-Shot Vigilante

The Janitor 2 - VT, Neighborizer

Beefster/Myloninja 4 - VT, Tracker

Taly 4 - VT, Neighborizer
Almost50/Davesaz 8 - VT, Neighborizer
mutantdevle 8 - VT, Neighbourizer
Ausuka 6 - VT, Neighborizer

Lovebird 6 - VT, Tracker

brassherald/Eddie Cane 6 - VT, Tracker

Quoting this for my own convenience.

[mutantdevle]

what if I'm scum vengeful and I'm secretly plotting to throw lylo and get lynched

Then fuck you and fuck math for making me trust you.

[Eddie Cane]

haha

[Eddie Cane]

I would think vig is superior to vengeful for both alignments tbqh

[mutantdevle]

I am a VT whom selected UB/Rolecop so yeah (*•̀ᴗ•́*)و ̑̑

It annoys me so much that they never specified which of these 2 they would have gone for. It annoyingly messes with mechanical solving and it feels intentional. I'd argue that based on my data there is a high chance they were going for UB instead of role cop.

Not only does this paint this slot as more scummy, but I think it also gives more town credit to Icon as well in that it could eliminate the theory that scum tried to get role cop in order to have Icon be a redirector but fake claim cop but then had Icon actually go for cop after they failed to receive the slot. <-- Of course, this alone is poor reasoning for town!Icon, but it still contributes to the mass of mechanical evidence that says Icon is town.

More importantly, however, Saske!Slot isn't looking so good.

[Eddie Cane]

Math was getting paranoid too and Math knows who SIMYK is so that could be a partial NK explanation
shrUg

[mutantdevle]

Weak stats about Saske!Slot:

People who choose numbers over 20 (aka numbers unlikely to be duplicates) are scum 40% of the time - kinda weak
If scum are going to kill the slot, there's a 50% chance they'd have done it by now - very weak
Since we can eliminate scum killing the slot for its role, we can conclude that scum would kill the slot for being town read too much. - kinda weak.
This draft position is the most likely to be a backup and falls within the bracket that contains the most backups. - not too weak.
This draft position also fits the doctor / RB bracket - very weak.
The UB / rolecop slot has a 67% town rate.


These are just notes I might reference later but what we can conclude now is that this slot is highly unlikely to be night killed (though we kinda knew that anyway).

[mutantdevle]

Weak stats about Taly:

The draft number 4 has a 93% town rate - strong.
If scum are going to kill Taly, they'd definitely have done it by now - extremely weak.
If scum killed Taly, there'd be no clear reason as to why they did so - very weak.
The only roles this position has ever received are backup and neighbouriser.
This draft position tends to try and receive backup/role cop - very weak.


Draft number alone would suggest town. A lot of town reads on this player would also suggest town. However, I'd have to see how this factors into everything else.

[mutantdevle]

Weak stats about Ausuka:

The draft number 6 has a 75% town rate - not too weak.
If scum are going to Ausuka then it will probably be tonight. - very weak.
If Ausuka was killed it would probably be because he was seen as a threat - kinda weak.
If someone is scum fake claiming VT but is actually N3 vig / vengeful, this slot is it - extremely weak.
This draft position tends to try and get the N3 vig/vengeful and neighbour/fruit vendor slots. - very weak.


This doesn't really tell us much tbh.

[mutantdevle]

Weak stats about Eddie Cane:

The draft number 6 has a 75% town rate - not too weak.
If scum are going to kill the slot, there's a 50% chance they'd have done it by now - very weak
If Ausuka was killed it would probably be because he was seen as a threat - kinda weak.
This draft position is the most likely to be watcher. - very weak.
The JK / Tracker slot has a 76% town rate.
The tracker slot has 92% town rate.


Tracker claim would suggest town but I'm mainly sheeping mathdino in my read of this slot as town.

[Taly]

:/ It's not surprising that I'm alive, I was on 2 mislynches.

My reads have been shit, and I've had wishy-washy motivation in light of this and out-of-game factors. My most confident reversal of a read has been

Janitor

.

I highly question how townread I've been in this game. I wouldn't be surprised if I was heavily WIFOMed or lynchbaited after the flip of almost anyone at this point in the game.

Most of the people I've scumread, been uncertain of, OR disagreed with this game has townread me to SOME extent:

{Eddie,

Math

,

Lalendra

, Dave, Janitor}

[mutantdevle]

EBWOP: Replace Ausuka with Eddie in the 3rd stat.


Weak stats about Almost50/davesaz slot:

The draft number 8 has a 70% town rate - not too weak.
If scum are going to kill davesaz it will probably be tonight. - very weak.
If davesaz was killed it would probably be because he was seen as a threat - kinda weak.
This draft position has only ever received 1 role which was the neighbouriser. It's the least likely slot to get a role according to meta.

[mutantdevle]

Okay so here's where I'm at:

I'm more comfortable calling davesaz town now. First of all, they claimed the try and get neighbouriser. I have

no doubt

that they (Almost50) genuinely did try to get this role. Because of this, I'm also applying the 96% town rate of people trying to get this slot that makes me town read Ircher to davesaz. Everyone else who claimed to try and get neighbouriser we cannot be sure aren't lying. Furthermore, Mathdino town read this slot and I'm under the impression that Math was killed because of his reads. Additionally, I also town read A50's attitude. I've seen him do a similar thing before as town and we know his attitude was genuine since he replaced out.

Out of Taly and Ausuka, I'm more comfortable saying Taly is the town and Ausuka is the scum. Whilst the mechanical evidence I've looked at so far is not conclusive for either of them, I feel Taly has more townie evidence. So right now I'm saying scum is probably {Janitor, Katyusha and Ausuka}. This gives us scum numbers of 2, 6 and 413.

However, I fear Eddie may be deep wolfing. So if someone I strongly town read can

really

look into them and their predecessor then I will be grateful.


None of this is locked in though, I still want to look into vote counts and then look at association tells as well as double check something about Taly / Ausuka.

[mutantdevle]

As a note though, I think Katyusha's flip would determine my view of Eddie. If Katyusha is town then Eddie must be scum from my pov.

[Eddie Cane]

expand on 2566 please, because that would make katyusha a guilty from my pov if true

[Ausuka]

Mechanically solved

[Ausuka]

I mean idk why scum lower on the draft can't pick neighbourizer??? Like I agree Ircher is town at his draft position for doing it. But like I said earlier, people just want PRs regardless of alignment.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Iconeum

Consider my vote on Janitor when it is time though.

[Ircher]

Weak stats about Ausuka:

The draft number 6 has a 75% town rate - not too weak.
If scum are going to Ausuka then it will probably be tonight. - very weak.
If Ausuka was killed it would probably be because he was seen as a threat - kinda weak.
If someone is scum fake claiming VT but is actually N3 vig / vengeful, this slot is it - extremely weak.
This draft position tends to try and get the N3 vig/vengeful and neighbour/fruit vendor slots. - very weak.


This doesn't really tell us much tbh.

Fyi, I'm the most likely kill atm due to my pseudo-conf!town status and self-confirming role.

[Ircher]

Intent to vote Janitor in (expired on 2018-06-01 17:26:10).

[Katyusha]

pulled a math all nighter yesterday lemme catch up real fast

also ircher that hammers mine

[Katyusha]

Actually Katy, Ico and you are both clear if Jan is the scum RB because that means Janitor was top scum on the draft

scum dont want to be caught with a rolecop as first slot is always an obvious choice

i think most people take osvig or cop in most circumstances regardless of alignment. it's just too risky to do anything else and even vig is pulling it