Large Normal 212: Korts' Geriatrics - Game Over @1831

[Axelrod]

Don't worry, I'm not going to push everything off if OM fails to deliver. I'm still going to do my thing. But my thing will also be informed by that info.

[roflcopter]

i'm interested in what your thing would be if there weren't a claimed day two ic to wait around for. why not give us what you've got now?

[Kison]

VOTE: insanity018

Happy to park my vote here for now.

[Eddie Cane]

VOTE: Lycan

[Lycanfire]

want innocent children and moi humble pie so we have something to work with in this game

pedit fuck off josh

[roflcopter]

Axel also will have flips which he said he can do a lot with in some far back iso post so definitely don't allow this kinda hew-haw tomorrow. also focus effort on the defectors insanity (strange move off Lycan) and Pine (strange move off Axel).

just a modest reminder that i still ship an axel/insanity/pine/oldman scumteam

[Eddie Cane]

Its gonna be 3 scum with slight sk possibility (unlikely though after 1 flip n1)

-
insanity isnt a bad vote persay, def better than axel

more lycan votes would be cool!

-

ole man you gonna confirm?

-

aye theres some twilight stuff I want to reply to but I dont feel like doing it from mobile as it's mostly oog and deadlines are a month so no rush

[Axelrod]

i'm interested in what your thing would be if there weren't a claimed day two ic to wait around for. why not give us what you've got now?

I'm resisting the urge to get snarky. You have made your opinions very clear here.

What I do is rather large vote count/wagon analysis that tends to take a long time to put together, and the more information we have to go on the more accurate they are. I don't "have" anything right now. I was waiting to see who died in the night before getting started. But, preview: I'm going to look at all the votes for Lycan/Me/KMD. And actually have to look at them 2 ways, one assuming Lycan Town, and one assuming Lycan scum.

[Pine]

I agree the "move" is "wait for OM to prove his IC claim."

But then there's some other stuff.

Yeah, this. And rope if he's not an IC.

[Axelrod]

So, I can look at some of this now, I suppose.

Again, disclaimer, I am not going to be breaking the game wide open on D2, and most of this is still opinion, but it's more informed opinion at the very least.

Starting with the KMD flash-wagon, because that's just the most interesting thing. 2 days before the deadline, the votes were like this:

(5) Lycanfire - hitogoroshi, insanity018, Old Man, Kmd4390, Eddie Cane
(4) Axelrod - roflcopter, ManaofIllusion, Pine, Kison
(2) hitogoroshi - CooLDoG, Firebringer
(1) MagnaofIllusion - Lycanfire

not voting: Tammy, Axelrod, Ginngie

And that vote count had been fairly static for a bunch of days. Basically, the only changes over the past week or so having been:

(1) Eddie switched from Ginngee to Lycan (Lycan now up to 6, I think)
(2) Kison switched from voting Lycan to voting for me (Lycan back down to 5, and me also up to 5)
(3) Ginngie Unvoted me (me back down to 4).

I've already mentioned how I just do not see a scum-Ginngie ever unvoting me under these circumstances, almost regardless of Lycan's alignment. If Lycan were Town, then the scum would be looking at two townies up on the block and probably not caring too much which one got chopped. The "momentum," in as much as there was any, was towards me. There were at least a few people saying stuff like "I'm willing to vote Axel at the deadline" or some such. And, if I'm being immodest, I would say the scum might marginally prefer having me get the chop than Lycan, just based on what has happened up until now, because Lycan isn't doing very much this game and I don't think he has a lot of people expressing a strong opinion they think he's Town, and I'm at least more active and have got some people supporting me.

So, a scum-Ginngie is probably very content to be where she is on that vote. But instead of just being content, Ginngie did a re-read of my posts, concluded that rolf's original points weren't very good, and unvoted me. Just did not have to do that

at all

as scum, and probably counter-productive to their plans. You could argue "she did it for the cred!" for the day when I flip Town, but I don't think Ginngie needed that cred in that spot, she was already pretty solidly voting me and I don't think anyone was calling her out on her vote, and I just don't see scum doing it.

It's even more solid case for Town-Ginngie if Lycan were scum. Obviously the scum would prefer the Axel-wagon to the Lycan-Wagon then, and a Ginngie re-read and potentially momentum-killing unvote could have sent her scum buddy to the noose for absolutely no reason.

So, this is why Ginngie is Town.

The Kison switch is probably NAL. If Lycan is Town, then, again, scum don't care and might marginally prefer me. And scum-Kison could be sucking up to rolf/Magna. But town-Kison could be doing virtually the same thing, and just might not have had a strong preference between us. If Lycan were scum, well, you could look at the switch as an attempt to "save" Lycan, but it doesn't really read that way, and he'd been sitting on that vote for Lycan for a long time with ample opportunity to move it before if he wanted to. Like, scum-scum is a possibility, but not really a stronger possibility than any other.

Similarly, Eddie's vote on Lycan is probably NAL in itself. He's expressing the position that he would prefer a Lycan lynch to a me lynch, which is consistent with what he's said before. He could do that as Town or scum. And I think he could even do it if Lycan were scum with him, despite it increasing the chances Lycan would be lynched, just because it would be more consistent with his previous posts. Though it's probably less likely scum-Eddie busses scum-Lycan there.

I think Eddie is probably Town here anyway, but not because of this.

And then the flash-wagon happened.

[Pine]

tl;dr

[Ginngie]

It had my name a lot and that got me excited

Worth a read

[Axelrod]

Tammy starts the flash-wagon @ 869.

Looking back, she's commented a number of times that she doesn't see the case against me, and that I read fine to her. KMD and Tywin are both on her radar. So there's an interesting question here of why vote KMD right there, as opposed to throwing support behind the wagon that already had votes. I can think of a number of possible answers to this, but I'd be curious to hear Tammy's particular ones. I'll say I don't find it scummy on it's face though.

It's kind of the same "if Lycan is Town, the scum don't really care" situation, where there's simply no reason for a scum-Tammy to go and try and start up something completely new on another player. Rather, she would be

perfectly

able to hem and haw and lament about these crap choices she was being given, but had no choice but to pick one due to deadline, and etc. etc. No real reason for her to try and start a new wagon. Lycan-scum is

slightly

more likely for her to have tried something like this, given she has been expressing support for me, and probably wouldn't want to have to reverse herself and vote me, but given the deadline situation, I just don't think scum-Tammy would have been feeling the pinch or need to do something like that.

So, I was feeling it before, but this solidifies it more, than Tammy is just very likely Town.

[Eddie Cane]

Nice Eddie I am actually at my parents farm dogsitting. I only have three instead of a couple dozen but on the flip side, they are very loud and dumb. I don't remember seeing questions in the meta post but I will look again. maybe will get to it now but obv. that's less important for ~twilight time~ cause if I get nk'd I assume there's nothing you'll be like, wow, I wish hito had answered that question about his meta before he died.

I wish my parents owned a farm

well

they own

ed

a farm that they sold about a year before I was born :babyrage:

this was a friend who's a breeder, has a farm out in the middle of nowhere with a fuck ton of pets. used to breed emus and goats among other things, but now just mainly dogs and cats. she had an awesome 4x4 though!

words n stuff"

I basically took from this that my meta was spot-on as far as surface level meta reads go, looks pretty much like what I expected. I wish I'd asked you if any of the people pushing you should know this about your game, but ah well.

Tammy (still don't think Tammy is scum but it's also true KMD wagon was more or less entirely birthed by Tammy not wanting Lycan).

There you go. I was a little weirded out that you left me off the first one. I'm quite a bit surprised at how fast that wagon went. I was expecting to still have to make a decision between Axel and Lycan today - Axel I did not want, and yeah Lycan I was getting cold feet on.

thoughts on Lycan now?

Yeah absolutely wagoning the fuck out of Hito D2. He's REALLY acting like informed minority around the KMD lynch here.

Not really that haven't been posted. Kind of could see one scum in Axel/Rofl, but not for Rofls weird tunnel. It's actually more related to their stances on me. Axel's push felt fake because he called me scum for being busy, claimed he wasn't doing that, then deliberately ignores my reply. Rofl on the other hand seemed too sure I was town.

Ginngie and lycan are my strongest scum reads. I kind of think Tammy is town (oh I should post my meta thing even though I didn't finish it) now. Eddie is still town. Magna, meh, could see either way. Firebringer maybe town? Hito town. Insanity could be scum but I don't see any reason to lean that way. Pine town. Claims will sort themselves out.

Now I feel bad
Noted. Would have liked a Pine explanation.

I didn't bother doing it for TM besides White Flag into where RVS "ended" for me because I caught CES. In the tiebreaker it was the opposite of what you're saying. I pegged the team because Leonshade had two interactions with his partner. One suggesting them as scum and then using mental gymnastics to sell them as town to GIF for the same reasons they were scummy. It was GIF that I said might have been scum just based on density alone (he interacted with everyone and never took his foot off the pedal).

That is what I was saying though?

I'm establishing that everything I was bringing up was still relevant to the current game state.

Okay.

Then why did you vote me LMFAO. I literally established that Hito was fair game.

This was very well broadcasted.

[Axelrod]

The second flash-wagon vote comes immediately after Tammy suggests the cfd, and it's from - of all people -

Pine

@ 870

This one is just weird to me, and I have a lot of conflicting thoughts about Pine. I mean, as far as I can tell, I am one of Pine's top suspects, and have been for quite a while. In addition, Pine is the only person I've voted against myself. Despite his vote for me, Pine has been disengaged from attacking me, or trying to convince others to vote for me. He's mostly been just cruising along. Given his newborn, certainly at the end of the day this part is pretty NAL.

But why jump to this flash-wagon? And at this point it isn't even a wagon, it's just Tammy. What does he say? He says kind of two things: "I'm tired" and "Fine, lynch the Lurker."

I have to ask myself, does scum-Pine, who has every reason in the world to just keep his vote right where it is, switch off me at literally the last minute to try and get a different Town lynched? I mean, it's possible? Scum-Pine doesn't

really

care here. And maybe he's feeling that trying to get me lynched is just too much trouble. The "I'm tired" plays a little into that feeling. But I also go back to my "scum like to be consistent" principle, and question whether scum-Pine really wants to switch off me after all this time for so little reason? Hito may have had it right, in the sense that a scum-Tywin/Lycan looks a lot worse for Pine here than a Town-Tywin/Lycan. This is one of the first votes I could see as coming from a scum-buddy of Lycan's. But if Lycan is Town? Not as much.

I looked back to see what he had to say about KMD (and Lycan) before this switch, and it wasn't a lot. The first time I see anything at all is #313 where he lumps both KMD and Tywin in with several of people who "have been giving crap for content all game" by way of defending himself that he hasn't been doing much.

He then says (somewhat ironically given how the day ends)

In brief, I would fight a D1 lurker lynch of KMD, but not oppose Tywin. I think there are better choices than Tywin though

Tywin had three votes on him at that moment, and KMD none, I think (Pine was responding to a question from Hito here).

At this point, Pine has a baby.

Later, in #514 he says that he "never saw" the scum-read on Tywin, and that Lycan looks fine to him. That's really it. As of #726 (Lycan has 5 votes, I have 3, Hito has 2) he says he'd vote Me or Hito, or maybe Fire. Doesn't mention Lycan, but as Lycan is the top vote getter, it's clearly implied he's against that lynch. He's still not

said

much of anything about Tywin/Lycan at all though.

When asked about his switch off me specifically he says:

If Axel were viable we'd have seen movement by now. There's support for a KMD flashwagon. It's subpar but an acceptable D1 EOD lynch with a decent chance of hitting scum.

This is kind of backwards-justified, since at the time of Pine's vote he would have had no idea if there was support for the wagon or not. The fact that three more people hopped on immediately after him is irrelevant. But - again - I'm not sure I see the angle for scum in just being mistaken.

Also, on the "maybe they could be scum together" angle, this exchange:

Kindly fuck off. I'm one of the very few people who had a Tywin!Town read, and your bullshit pushes are doing work upending that.

Kind of argues against that. I know scum can bus, but this is a little more hostile than I would expect to see teammates being to each other. Maybe not - and maybe someone familiar with Pine can tell me.

Finally, there's this little inconsistency. Pine first says this:

On a KMD scumflip, I am 100% hard for a followup Hito lynch.

So, KMD scum = Hito scum. But that is followed by this:

Yeah absolutely wagoning the fuck out of Hito D2. He's REALLY acting like informed minority around the KMD lynch here.

After Hito has said he thinks KMD's claim makes him likely Town. So, basically, Pine ready to wagon Hito no matter what KMD flips?

Pine doesn't address KMD's claim or really say anything else about KMD, so that's not great either.

If Pine is Town, he's just on a totally different wavelength from me. Frazzled new-baby tiredness could be playing a part here? Look, I have said a lot of words again, and not come to a solid conclusion! Stupid baby.

[Pine]

Wow. You went through a lot of contortions to make that fit your narrative.

[Pine]

Also VOTE: Axel

[CooLDoG]

always do the other stuff.

[Axelrod]

I'm not even sure what narrative you think that is, Pine, considering I don't have one.

What exactly?

[Tammy]

So I am not prophetic! I had a dream last night that Eddie Cane died last night, but only because he was one of two of us who passed the basic math skills exam. Not because the rest of us didn't know math, because we all got our math questions correct, but we didn't follow the directions properly. Only Eddie and one other person did, I don't know who, but mafia killed Eddie because he follows directions...and knows math apparently.

[Tammy]

Tammy starts the flash-wagon @ 869.

Looking back, she's commented a number of times that she doesn't see the case against me, and that I read fine to her. KMD and Tywin are both on her radar. So there's an interesting question here of why vote KMD right there, as opposed to throwing support behind the wagon that already had votes. I can think of a number of possible answers to this, but I'd be curious to hear Tammy's particular ones. I'll say I don't find it scummy on it's face though.

It's kind of the same "if Lycan is Town, the scum don't really care" situation, where there's simply no reason for a scum-Tammy to go and try and start up something completely new on another player. Rather, she would be

perfectly

able to hem and haw and lament about these crap choices she was being given, but had no choice but to pick one due to deadline, and etc. etc. No real reason for her to try and start a new wagon. Lycan-scum is

slightly

more likely for her to have tried something like this, given she has been expressing support for me, and probably wouldn't want to have to reverse herself and vote me, but given the deadline situation, I just don't think scum-Tammy would have been feeling the pinch or need to do something like that.

So, I was feeling it before, but this solidifies it more, than Tammy is just very likely Town.

Ginngie, you are a woman after my own heart! It is super exciting to read a post all about you!

My answer to your question is that I didn't really like the case against you and thought you were probably town. I also started getting cold feet on thinking that Lycan was scum. He'd made a couple posts that made me think maybe town? Some people I thought were likely town thought he was town, though Hito was one that squarely thought he was scum.

I almost started a wagon on insanity because i thought she might be scum, largely in part because she feels rather wooden, but her last post had some spark that had me doubting. So I started a wagon on KMD because that was my other question mark. I didn't expect it to actually go through like that and kinda started it to see what would happen. Both you and insanity had made earlier cases/arguments against KMD that didn't go anywhere and I found that puzzling. And I thought that the kind of things you guys brought up sounded similar to partnerish things brought up for distancing purposes but not designed to really push with. I thought that if KMD was either or you guys' partner and Lycan was town, the reaction to the wagon starting up at deadline for really no reason at all might tell me something or help to reason out that feeling I had.

But it didn't. That was wrong and by the time I came back he'd claimed and been brought to L1.

[Tammy]

Firebringer - I know you can be more involved than you have been this game. Please get in here and do something if you're town.

[Tammy]

can you explain this? Because I'm really trying to understand you and your play and some of the theories you've presented are kinda whackadoo and I'm trying to figure out if this is irrational town that thinks they saw something early or bullshitting scum trying to hold on to some narrative they think they can build.

That first quote was taken out of context in that game. My

gut reaction

("feely bullshit") was that Llamarble was scummy, because he was being egotistical. Rather than let that feeling form my final opinion on him I kept thinking about his post and realized that it stunk so badly that it was scum bait. Cogito Ergo Scum voted him shortly after and at that point I was pretty sure I found scum, but it was early game (page 3?) so I made a nonsense vote with a nearly broken vote tag to point to later as "yeah by the way I found scum but wanted you all to keep talking so we didn't speedlynch scum and ruin day 1". The town didn't really get it, because they all thought they drew scum PMs. See this post if you actually care ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

As for what I meant in this game: scums can town up if they have no pressure on them. Reading how they interact with others might be helpful post-flip, but all it does is make you wonder if that post comes from town. You have to focus on the posts that come from scum, and push them on that, get feedback, and work from there.

I would probably still be pushing you if not for that hand wavy post Pine made to you in 429. The whole point about Pine's "cogdis" is pretty weak considering the entire playerlist wants to dump on OM. Seemingly it's Pine that doesn't seem to give a shit about you as a person which was different to how he was talking Chamber into not replacing out. Now there's some dissonance I can get behind.

--

Don't really like how everyone is poeing insanity while kmd got lynched IMO.

That was Marble being marble. You probably found CES scum for the wrong reasons too if you think he voted marble because he was scum baited by marble being egotistical. CES would push and vote marble at the beginning of a game regardless of alignment because that's their history together. (I'm not trying to take away you catching scum there because you were right, but you are missing history.)

But I don't really think I took anything out of context? You thought marble was scum at first as a gut reaction but then thought about it and realized he could be town due to X. Which means you didn't go with your first thought, you considered the motivations of what marble might be doing and looked into it, which is different from what you said here and where I'm going huh because there re-evaluation, here you say more information is bad for reads. How does that not align with your other statement I quoted about you bullshitting as scum while as town there is no need to?

The belief in reevaluation/lack of belief in reevaluation is what I'm trying to figure out.

I don't understand why Pine not giving a shit about me as a person means that we're not partnered? And this is something I was thinking about overnight because your original stance on our slots being partnered and taking each other to lylo and then chamber just being so disheartened that Pine got after him about the Eddie meta question doesn't make sense to me. Chamber had offered up some pretty choice barbs to Pine - you've got not only the join date one but the town hunting thing - so why would chamber become so down that Pine sniped back to him about his meta request on Eddie get him to fizzle further and further until he replaced out mean they were partners? Even if you don't believe it now because of something Pine said to me, I don't understand your thought process there.

why do you think that insanity is town?

[Tammy]

[q
There you go. I was a little weirded out that you left me off the first one. I'm quite a bit surprised at how fast that wagon went. I was expecting to still have to make a decision between Axel and Lycan today - Axel I did not want, and yeah Lycan I was getting cold feet on.

thoughts on Lycan now?
[/quote]

I don't know. I don't do well reading players like Lycan without experience with them specifically and metaing games I'm not in doesn't help. He does not look like the town games I skimmed through, there he felt clear for the most part and I could understand him though the knowledge of his alignment does impact that. But he also doesn't look like his scum games either, so he's a medium crossing where I'm not sure and I'm pretty much looking to you guys' interaction to help me with that, and hopefully by the end of today that will be made clearer.

[Tammy]

I'm kinda squicked that there's not a Old Man is town post at the start of day two. If I were in his position and there were so many questions, I'd have requested that to be stated immediately. The fact that there's not is concerning.

Probably means that he's a #liarbigfatliar and I'm out of fucks given trying to determine whether or not it's scum or town fake claiming and will lynch that shit no looking back.

I'd like to see:

Fireberinger do shit today besides be disgruntled that Magna finds his play objectionable...there are more people playing than him.

cooldog do more than his mostly superficial bullshit reading

pine do more than sideline sniping

Axel still reads fine to me.