Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[skitter30]

But before I jump on you I want you to explain whether you think I'm a WW or a Mafioso (Hint: I'm neither, but feel free to present an argument for me being either). Then I will reevaluate my read on you.

That explains this bit a lot actually and why you kept pressing me to pick one or the other.

You probably were trying to gauge if *I* was the seer who had checked you last night given that my first post was casing you.

[the worst]

Ngl skitter playing with you and intentionally avoiding mind melds is the hardest PR experience to date

[skitter30]

yeah ... you kept saying that and I was like ???? cuz I'm doing the exact same thing I usually do when I was around so I didn't get why you were reading me so differently

sorry for making it hard :/

Once I realized what was going on I tried to back off though

[the worst]

The end of day one was heaps easier yeah the espe lynch was pretty disappointing but it could have been worse (I was worried I'd pushed the envelope too far and would need to claim) ;n;

[skitter30]

CJ's still my best bet for an AP partner based on wagonomics from day1 but I'm not sure if he hops on as the second vote in the wagon I'm pushing then?

p-edit: one of your posts was basically a soft-claim iirc and yeah so that's why I jumped off at some point

[the worst]

"I'm today's lynch 0% of the time" was a leaf out of Noir, silent prayer to you and sando

Agreed CJV has a lot of ww equity rn

[the worst]

But we need AP to find us the mafia before we string him up because he's outstanding and I'd rather keep ww alive than mafia

[AP]

@tw: Whether your gambit goes through or not, I very much applaud you and tip my hat off for you. It's a BRILLIANT move at his point o the game.

I mean, think about it: We're 6T-2W-2M. The WW hitting Mafia early does work for both them and the town. Now lynch town (or Mafia, as they don't really know) and shoot the seer (tw's gambit is to out them). Tomorrow we are 4T-2W-2M (or 5T-2W-1M). The duck is lynched, and their p shoot someone (and -more importantly- is quite safe from being caught by the Seer). Next day: 3T-1W-2M (Or 4T-1W-1M). If the former, the town already lost majority. If the latter, they need one mislynch to get to 2-1-1 (Lynch Town and shoot Mafia OR lynch Mafia and shoot Town = WWs win)

The BEST [part is nobody would ever lynch you over me today (that would have ruined the whole gambit). STILL, since you ain't getting a CC the gambit has probably failed anyway. SORRY, but I still think that was a brilliant move on your part. You just picked the wrong person to aim at (you probably should've shot me and framed pintu, maybe?)

[the worst]

who do you pick as pintu's partners ap?

[skitter30]

"I'm today's lynch 0% of the time" was a leaf out of Noir, silent prayer to you and sando

Agreed CJV has a lot of ww equity rn

Yeah it was that one specifically.

I think the duck is more likely than not scum

but I don't want to lynch him today

.

But we need AP to find us the mafia before we string him up because he's outstanding and I'd rather keep ww alive than mafia

-> I think since we have one mafia down we want to prioritize lynching wolves right now.

But I guess that tonight is a guaranteed town death so if we lynch AP today we're at 1:2:5 (wolf, scum, town) tomorrow. Whereas if we lynch scum today we're at 2:1:5 (wolf, scum, town) tomorrow with a known wolf that we can lynch whenever.

But if we lynch town today we're at 2:2:4 which makes me very uncomfortable and the game is like in perpetual l/mylo iirc.

Actually if we don't lynch AP maybe you're not dead tonight? Wolves can't kill you without confirming you and your result so AP gets auto-lynched once you die.

-> Not sure if Ap is going to want to help us find mafia today though

@AP I'm pretty sure it's in your best interest though? Like your faction is down one member as soon as the duck is dead and you don't want to endgame to mafia anymore than town does.

p-edit yeah I guess you're going to be sticking with voting the duck today

[skitter30]

@tw do you think sando can be maf?

[the worst]

I'd prefer leashed wolf yeah (frankly I'd prefer a ww win to a mafia win!)

pedit: definitely not impossible yeah

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: the worst

Fuggo tomorrow

[skitter30]

I think you might die anyways despite trying to leash him though. They might just say fuck it and kill you after AP doesn't get lynched today. Like I don't know what their incentive is for keeping you alive.

It also depends on who his partner is cuz they don't have daytalk

[the worst]

OK, serious read.. duckling is town

So far I've pegged 3 townies with some degree of confidence: Pintu, MWNN & tw

Next..

This exchange always interested me

Pedit: LOL DID NM JUST CLAIM WEREWOLF
Can you tell the rest of the class why you're reading those three town?

I have my reasoning in a zip file. Let me unzip and get back to you.

I'm putting AP as town for today, but I disagree with his blanket townreads on MWNN and tw, duckling especially.

[the worst]

OK, serious read.. duckling is town

So far I've pegged 3 townies with some degree of confidence: Pintu, MWNN & tw

Next..

Can you tell the rest of the class why you're reading those three town?

I have my reasoning in a zip file. Let me unzip and get back to you.

I'm putting AP as town for today, but I disagree with his blanket townreads on MWNN and tw, duckling especially.

This exchange always interested me

Pedit: LOL DID NM JUST CLAIM WEREWOLF

ebwop

[skitter30]

um that's kinda what I was thinking too wrt nm

[the worst]

+5% Maf equity to uglyduck and cjv because NM voted them

[skitter30]

Sando/uglyduck have interesting associatives from early game (especially wrt the 'do mafia have nks' bit)

I'll go back and check ap's iso for partners later but I need to be productive irl now!

[the worst]

no problems. AP doesn't let much slip. Good luck with irl! O7

[skitter30]

Are both wolves on yesterday's lynch wagon though?

Yeah ok I'm really done for now and I'll check back in a few hours when I need a break

[Pine]

Now seems like a good time for an important PSA: I will be using my standard replacement meta here. I will read mod PMs, mod ISO, predecessor ISO, and most recent 5-10 pages, in that order. I will then follow up on ISOs of people I find important.

You can help me by giving me a summary of what’s happened so far. I will of course take this with a grain of subjective salt, so focus less on your reads and more on concrete facts like claims and actions.

[Not_Mafia]

Summary: Fuggo is scum

[the worst]

we compromise lynched espe d1 which was dumb but it was either him or me and I'm the seer so I'd rather it not be me y'know?

Also AP is a wolf and I think NM just softclaimed being his partner

If you check for Ruby Red's rep in and our convo I think I talked more. If it's hard to find sing out and I'll quote it for you.

[Fumuki]

Well, that's why I didn't want a TW wagon or lynch yersteday, I was pretty sure he would claim Seer.

The question is, like I said before...why he isn't DEAD?

I picked up his soft claims (and I suck at it), but I thought he was dying for sure in night 1?

Let's suppose for a moment that TW is really the Seer. Why Werewolves would shoot Pintu? I mean, did they by any chance had 100% confidence that Pintu was scum or did they not realize TW soft claims?

and to be honest, how they didn't realize TW soft claims?

TW, let me confirm something: You're hardclaiming Seer AND is with a guilty on AP or UglyDuck?