Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[Sando]

a) and the benefits to lynching elsewhere today are ... ?

b) I don't know what issue you're referring to? Can you link me or something cuz idk what you're talking abt

c) you were trying to make the argument that that post makes me look like bad town, and that according to ruby when it looks like I"m bad town I'm scum. I'm just pointing out that I don't think his opinion is particularly relevant here given that I don't think he has that meta on me.

And the benefits to lynching AP today are? My point is that sure, it probably makes literally no difference, there's a very slim chance we get some benefit tomorrow if we lynch elsewhere. 95% sure TW aint lying, him dying overnight will happen either way, removing that 5% doubt. 95% sure TW dies overnight, he 100% dies overnight if we confirm him by lynching AP. By far and away the most likely scenario is AP is WW and TW dies overnight, but there's a few percentages here and there that not lynching AP today could provide us an edge with.

I mean we're gonna be in this position tomorrow, why rush to lynch AP now?

b) Sando 169 has my original mocking of the idea that we're on the same team running the exact same gambit, along with my mocking the idea that we're both scum but different factions. I for some reason though the factions were "scum" and "WW" at that point, hence my first point, which looks silly from me.

c) I mean I also had the conversation with him yesterday where I said my bad-town reads were something I tended to trust and he had a go at me for not understanding meta reads. I'm merely pointing it out to him for him to add to the list of evidence. His theory is you're scum, mine is town. Theories should take account of all available evidence, I'm merely adding to that list, not changing my read, although I'm asking ruby to re-evaluate and get back to me, albeit without specifically saying that.

[Sando]

So TW is the Seer, no CC, with a crumbed claim and crumbed guilty...

Remind me why there are votes on him?

Piggy was the only TW voter today? He's on UD now, although probably actually not due to nomenclature.

[Pine]

Mmmkay

[skitter30]

Well AP is voting him for obvious reasons.

And NM voted TW after AP did which is like ???? and why I'm thinking he may be a wolf. He's since switched his vote to uglyduck. But even so I'm not sure what wolf!nm hopes to gain out of voting the claimed seer - it kinda inextricably ties him to AP which kinda ought *not* to be wolf!nm's goal.

I don't think there are other votes on him right now

p-edit: I didn't read the sando post yet

[skitter30]

I mean we're gonna be in this position tomorrow, why rush to lynch AP now?

because there's a guilty on him? If there's no benefit to delaying I don't see why we don't just lynch him? Like if AP isn't lynched today I still think that TW almost always gets killed here -> I think the wolves will find it more beneficial to just let AP go than to let TW have another night to get a result.

That reminds me - hard-bussing maybe wolf indicative? Not sure.

b) Sando 169 has my original mocking of the idea that we're on the same team running the exact same gambit, along with my mocking the idea that we're both scum but different factions. I for some reason though the factions were "scum" and "WW" at that point, hence my first point, which looks silly from me.

Right, and my response to that at that time was that I found it more odd/concerning that you were answering for uglyduck there and that your explanation included him. I pointed this out a few times and you never really responded to that.

I guess my specific problem with this is that you're saying 'we both assumed it due to the role PMs not mentioning it', when UD hasn't said anything of the sort so like .... how do you know that's what he assumed? Like why are you explaining his thought process for him?

Like the actual confusion over the role PMs bit I didn't find to be particularly interesting or parter-indicative or not-partner-indicative; it was more the aftermath that I had a problem with.

wrt ruby red I misread what you were trying to say with your original post and I get it now.

[Sando]

because there's a guilty on him? If there's no benefit to delaying I don't see why we don't just lynch him? Like if AP isn't lynched today I still think that TW almost always gets killed here -> I think the wolves will find it more beneficial to just let AP go than to let TW have another night to get a result.

That reminds me - hard-bussing maybe wolf indicative? Not sure.

There's 2 wolves, if there's a 1% chance we're wrong and TW lives tonight, why isn't that better than 0%? If this were the last wolf, sure, we remove NKs, but we have to hunt for his buddy today or tomorrow, what's the difference other a feeling of a job well done letting TW catch a wolf for us?

Right, and my response to that at that time was that I found it more odd/concerning that you were answering for uglyduck there and that your explanation included him. I pointed this out a few times and you never really responded to that.

I mean what do you want me to say? We were accused of being scumbuddies because we said practically the same thing, and in defending myself from that I talked about both of us, because the accusation was about both of us... I was specifically attacking the idea that we're scumbuddies together, why would I not talk about the other person?

[the worst]

So TW is the Seer, no CC, with a crumbed claim and crumbed guilty...

Remind me why there are votes on him?

I claimed guilty on AP and he's throwing a tantrum
NM then voted me too

ez wolfteam

[the worst]

VOTE: Not_Mafia good take

[Sando]

So TW is the Seer, no CC, with a crumbed claim and crumbed guilty...

Remind me why there are votes on him?

I claimed guilty on AP and he's throwing a tantrum
NM then voted me too

ez wolfteam

I haven't thought this through myself, but why do you think AP+WW (NM?) killed Pintu?

[the worst]

I posted to that effect, you even misunderstood and called me out on humble bragging!! :'(

[Sando]

I posted to that effect, you even misunderstood and called me out on humble bragging!! :'(

Lol, but that was fairly generic "Pintu is a good scum/seer target" rather than a reason AP or his buddy would specifically want them dead. Or do we feel the need to seer-hunt and mafia-hunt, that they can't afford to direct their kills to help them hide?

[the worst]

But like no one softer d1 (my sitting style is pretty obvious if you've experienced it but otherwise is just a mockery of particular highly arrogant players who insist they're unlynchable) so they would've just hit a good player who's hard to read tbh

[the worst]

or they might have scumread him they're both good scumhunters

[ceejayvinoya]

Catching up. Give me a little while.

[Sando]

or they might have scumread him they're both good scumhunters

Why not actually scumhunt him yesterday and get the cred for it?

[the worst]

You know wolves need to push one thing at day and one thing at night right

[the worst]

bruh

why are we having this convo even AP is factually mod confkrmsd scum I'm just saying that kill is in his scope

[ceejayvinoya]

I expected to die too but I was comfortable enough with {fumuki, ruby, Sando, skitter} being town or maf and frankly you guys are the only ones liable to pick up on my current tpr meta tells. AP knows me fairly well but not THAT well, plus I was very lynchable this time. I'm getting better at it.

@the worst are you 100% confident here?

What are the odds that they deliberately ignored your soft-tells to get townred?

[ceejayvinoya]

Hmm but wait that doesn't make sense either because you wouldn't be alive to make this list lols.

Nvm. I'm trusting this.

[the worst]

I expected to die too but I was comfortable enough with {fumuki, ruby, Sando, skitter} being town or maf and frankly you guys are the only ones liable to pick up on my current tpr meta tells. AP knows me fairly well but not THAT well, plus I was very lynchable this time. I'm getting better at it.

@the worst are you 100% confident here?

What are the odds that they deliberately ignored your soft-tells to get townred?

Town or maf
Town or maf
Town or maf

[the worst]

It was primarily a dice roll and like I lost my shit via pm when I actually got a guilty, I am so bad at PRs

[ceejayvinoya]

Yeah agreed I'm being dense.

[the worst]

u rock cjv

[Sando]

bruh

why are we having this convo even AP is factually mod confkrmsd scum I'm just saying that kill is in his scope

Because he has a partner, and you die tonight no matter what, so that gives us no info, so theorising about who AP is connected to and why the partner+AP might want Pintu dead is about all we got going for us atm in that hunt.

How can you agree with me that we need to hunt the partner and simultaneously think that all I care about is proving AP guilty?

[ceejayvinoya]

What are you all arguing about at this moment? Why did the wolves pick Pintu? Is that it?