Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[GuyInFreezer]

3.04

punreader (1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3):

OnTheMark, Kokichi Oma, davesaz

projectmatt (6):

Ramcius, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Dunnstral, Impossibear, punreader, Kaede Akamatsu

Ramcius (2):

Ankamius, projectmatt

MariaR (1):

wilky

OnTheMark (1):

Alchemist21

Not Voting:

davesaz

With

14

alive,

8

to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2018-06-09 23:05:14)

[MariaR]

>when your 2 sr's are the biggest wagon
it's Christmas time to see who I can lynch first

[projectmatt]

1. i primarily tried to push on dunnstral and you. i explained my reasoning, too. are you trying to say that the fact that a lot of people townread you means that i shouldn't have pushed you? also, i explained my wraith townread in my catch-up post and posted multiple times asking for somebody to explain the scumread on wraith, which didn't happen. the fact that you're still pushing on me for not voting one of my townreads is just inane.

2. you ignored my question. where did you say that vent was confirmed scum to you? why didn't you vote the person who was confirmed scum to you?

3. my problem with your scumread on ank on d1 is that it hinged on vent being mafia, even though your read on vent was vague and not fleshed out in the slightest. that was the point.

4. meta is irrelevant to my scumread on you. i always try to act confident about my scumreads, but there's a certain level of confirmation bias that happens when you roll mafia that can be hard to avoid, and i think it's what happened with you.

5. when i asked you why you changed to me, you literally said "peer pressure" and nothing about your read on nero. i don't buy that.

6. hahaha, what? so you're saying that on day one, it made sense to push someone who would never be lynched because it was the right thing to do, but on day two you suddenly realized that you can't push on people who aren't likely to be lynched? you could have pushed on your scumreads. you could have made cases. this is an excuse for lazy play.

7. because someone who they (potentially) townread discredited the idea that there was a mafia in the wraith wagon. it very much reads like a deflection.

8. how does that paint a target on your back? who has pushed on you for that today? i already explained the "scum motivation", too.

[projectmatt]

>when your 2 sr's are the biggest wagon
it's Christmas time to see who I can lynch first

lazy post

[MariaR]

you're not wrong

[Ramcius]

1. i primarily tried to push on dunnstral and you. i explained my reasoning, too. are you trying to say that the fact that a lot of people townread you means that i shouldn't have pushed you? also, i explained my wraith townread in my catch-up post and posted multiple times asking for somebody to explain the scumread on wraith, which didn't happen. the fact that you're still pushing on me for not voting one of my townreads is just inane.

2. you ignored my question. where did you say that vent was confirmed scum to you? why didn't you vote the person who was confirmed scum to you?

3. my problem with your scumread on ank on d1 is that it hinged on vent being mafia, even though your read on vent was vague and not fleshed out in the slightest. that was the point.

4. meta is irrelevant to my scumread on you. i always try to act confident about my scumreads, but there's a certain level of confirmation bias that happens when you roll mafia that can be hard to avoid, and i think it's what happened with you.

5. when i asked you why you changed to me, you literally said "peer pressure" and nothing about your read on nero. i don't buy that.

6. hahaha, what? so you're saying that on day one, it made sense to push someone who would never be lynched because it was the right thing to do, but on day two you suddenly realized that you can't push on people who aren't likely to be lynched? you could have pushed on your scumreads. you could have made cases. this is an excuse for lazy play.

7. because someone who they (potentially) townread discredited the idea that there was a mafia in the wraith wagon. it very much reads like a deflection.

8. how does that paint a target on your back? who has pushed on you for that today? i already explained the "scum motivation", too.

1. No, i'm saying that pushing me, when people aren't interested in my lynch was posturing and a way to stay out of Wraith wagon

2. Let me think, i did called him scum, i fought his nonsense that he threw my way, i didn't opposed his lynch. And your question is wrong, i answered that already, question is, why would i park my vote on Vent so early in D1?

3. Are you talking about my D1 push on Ank or D2?

4. you think, glad to know that instead of checking out, you just work on your assumptions

5. It wasn't read change, you asked why i voted you, but i was wondering then and i'm wondering now - did you really missed RC asking why i'm not voting you? You even quoted his message

6. You feel difference, when main wagon is your scumread and when it's your townread? Also, it was pretty early D1 adn we were close to EoD in D2, and i don't even want to talk about different game flow on D1 and D2, which would be gibberish to you

7. If you give up on your stance so easily, when someone, who you aren't townreading is saying white is black, your initial stance was a bs to begin with

8. Good for you, if you can see future, i can't, and hard pushing ML is scummy by itself and attracts a lot of attention, when someone you pushed flips green. So why would i want so much attention as a scum, when i can just take easy ML without risk?

[Ramcius]

>when your 2 sr's are the biggest wagon
it's Christmas time to see who I can lynch first

wanna join club and explain your scumread on me? Or you keep "lol, Ram is scum" attitude like others?

[projectmatt]

1. i primarily tried to push on dunnstral and you. i explained my reasoning, too. are you trying to say that the fact that a lot of people townread you means that i shouldn't have pushed you? also, i explained my wraith townread in my catch-up post and posted multiple times asking for somebody to explain the scumread on wraith, which didn't happen. the fact that you're still pushing on me for not voting one of my townreads is just inane.

2. you ignored my question. where did you say that vent was confirmed scum to you? why didn't you vote the person who was confirmed scum to you?

3. my problem with your scumread on ank on d1 is that it hinged on vent being mafia, even though your read on vent was vague and not fleshed out in the slightest. that was the point.

4. meta is irrelevant to my scumread on you. i always try to act confident about my scumreads, but there's a certain level of confirmation bias that happens when you roll mafia that can be hard to avoid, and i think it's what happened with you.

5. when i asked you why you changed to me, you literally said "peer pressure" and nothing about your read on nero. i don't buy that.

6. hahaha, what? so you're saying that on day one, it made sense to push someone who would never be lynched because it was the right thing to do, but on day two you suddenly realized that you can't push on people who aren't likely to be lynched? you could have pushed on your scumreads. you could have made cases. this is an excuse for lazy play.

7. because someone who they (potentially) townread discredited the idea that there was a mafia in the wraith wagon. it very much reads like a deflection.

8. how does that paint a target on your back? who has pushed on you for that today? i already explained the "scum motivation", too.

1. No, i'm saying that pushing me, when people aren't interested in my lynch was posturing and a way to stay out of Wraith wagon

2. Let me think, i did called him scum, i fought his nonsense that he threw my way, i didn't opposed his lynch. And your question is wrong, i answered that already, question is, why would i park my vote on Vent so early in D1?

3. Are you talking about my D1 push on Ank or D2?

4. you think, glad to know that instead of checking out, you just work on your assumptions

5. It wasn't read change, you asked why i voted you, but i was wondering then and i'm wondering now - did you really missed RC asking why i'm not voting you? You even quoted his message

6. You feel difference, when main wagon is your scumread and when it's your townread? Also, it was pretty early D1 adn we were close to EoD in D2, and i don't even want to talk about different game flow on D1 and D2, which would be gibberish to you

7. If you give up on your stance so easily, when someone, who you aren't townreading is saying white is black, your initial stance was a bs to begin with

8. Good for you, if you can see future, i can't, and hard pushing ML is scummy by itself and attracts a lot of attention, when someone you pushed flips green. So why would i want so much attention as a scum, when i can just take easy ML without risk?

1. alright. if you're going to stick to that point, then surely you can agree with me that you voting ank on d1 when people weren't interested in their lynch is posturing too. hold yourself to the same standard.

2. so in other words, you never indicated that vent was confirmed scum to you in spite of saying that you did. you barely pushed on him. i'm not asking you to park your vote, but the fact that you had a super confident scumread on one person that was so strong that it was the basis for your other scumreads makes it was weird that you barely pushed on them or explained your read at all.

3. i'm talking about the d1 push. i even said "your push on d1" in the thing you're responding to...

4. that's not a counter-argument, just a snarky response.

5. i don't understand. what does rc's post have to do with that?

6. that's super condescending. do you seriously think that i don't understand what game flow means? give me a break. it's clear to me that you're avoiding directly responding to me because you don't want your shoddy logic to be seen.

7. no. that isn't how mafia works. mafia have a tendency to try to sow doubt/cynicism into games, and they especially try to discredit reads/wagon analysis that would be detrimental to them.

8. first of all, it allows you to use the same argument you're using now as scum. also, attention as mafia is not a bad thing. there's no reason why what you did yesterday would give you negative attention, and that makes it dishonest to imply it created a target on your back. we can know that isn't true because nobody is pushing on you for that.

[Punreader]

Pun, that question was asked in some form already. The role they would flip is the one they had at the time of their death.

Well nobody told ME that the question had been asked.

From that we can safely assume either the role swap had already happened (allowing pun to preserve their roles) or that Ventriloquist simply started with it and the pun valued their roles enough to let him flip with it.

It may be worth looking over Ventrilioquist's posts to see if there is any role breadcrumbs. If there are breadcrumbs present, we would be able to identify the holder of the role being breadcrumbed as pun.

Too many words :/

I considered breaking the post up into three or four sections, but that would still be the same amount of words. (Actually, breaking it up into four posts would technically be a few extra words.) Just distributed differently.

You do not need to read the whole wall. You do need to read the parts where I give a read you disagree with.
To reiterate:

Townbloc

HAS COMMON INTERESTS:

Kaede Akamatsu

Spoiler: Kaede

Even if Kaede hadn't popped the IC, I'd have Kaede in my townbloc because this is solidly Kaede's towngame; Akam see it clear as day. The IC was frankly an unnecessary redundancy. But with it, at least this read requires no further explanation.

Wilky

Spoiler: wilky

While many suspect wilky, few fingering wilky can give any real reasons as to why. The few who have presented their evidence have a process I find absolutely loony. I keep on seeing the suspicion thrown and the cases there and none of it matches what I have witnessed; there is a disconnect between the suspicion on the slot and what the slot has actually given.

Because my own read on wilky's contribution is that wilky's content has been insanely town-motivated. His reads may be less than optimal and his style of posting may be such that players have an innate bias to punreading him, but when you look past the surface level and actually dig into the process he has outlined, the truth shines through. Sure, he may not have the best of reads, but bad reads doesn't make a player of his caliber pun. If you take the time to look at

how

he got those reads, the process is one which is

incredibly

hard to fake, especially for a player who is both relatively new and reasonably unskilled.

Dunnstral

Spoiler: Dunnstral

If you have the extensive game history with him that I do, you can instantly tell this is solidly his towngame. Additionally, he is soft-cleared by MariaR. Regardless of MariaR's alignment, this result is something we can trust; if MariaR is town, the result is accurate and if MariaR is pun, the result is likely still not on a punbuddy, making him town no matter what.

One of these two metrics in of itself may not be enough to townbin him. If it were just a townread off of meta, the townread could be wrong; if it were just the result from Maria, it would be possible she was attempting to falsely clear her punbuddy (though I personally think that manifested in a different manner as I have indicated previously). However, both in tandem is enough to hard-lock him as town; this is a Dunn deal.

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Spoiler: REALMEN

I explained this before, but perhaps I can simplify; calling Jungle pun is a violation of occam's razor when you take motivations into mind.
To start, let's establish a baseline.

• The motivation of a town player is to further the gamestate such that town can identify who is town/pun and coordinate to lynch and shut down pun.
  
• The motivation of a pun player is to further the gamestate such that pun are positioned to control the town. In a typical pun player, this can be subdivided into three motivations in this approximate strength:
  1. Survive as pun
     
  2. Protect punbuddies
     
  3. Control the town
     
  4. Shut the town down
  (That is not the strength they should be in, but it is the strength pun players play them in.)

Then, with these motivations in mind, examine REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's actions.
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE claimed a role which, if specific conditions were fulfilled, would reveal the alignment of a player.
As town, the motivation of this is self-evident; further the gamestate to identify who is town/pun.
As pun, this requires it to be a move for towncred, as a subset of survivalism.

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE then failed to deliver on this promise.
As town, the motivation of this is self-evident; it was a human error.
As pun, this move would require REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE deliberately putting himself in harm's way (violating survivalism), remove his influence from the town (violating controlling the town), for the sake of not giving away a piece of information not likely to directly harm him (not contributing to protecting a punbuddy), which doesn't shut the town down as much as it denies them a service he had the ability to deny them simply by never using it/never claiming it.

If he were pun who intended to not give the service to the town, why not just neglect to claim it or even never use it?
By claiming it and failing to use it properly, he is placing himself in harm's way for no visible benefit.

This is furthered by his usage on Ouroboros.
If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is town, the motivation for targeting Ouroboros is self-evident. Ouroboros is the same type of player as Impossibear; a competent hydra in a strong position to gamesolve, and REALMEN had no way of knowing Ouroboros would be the nightkill.

If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is pun, the motivation for targeting Ouroboros requires giving up on surviving (as targeting the nightkill will garner further suspicion beyond the already-existing suspicion to come for the failure on Impossibear, setting himself up for the lynch), controlling the town, and protecting punbuddies for the sake of denying the town a service.

Yes, it is possible for REALMEN to be pun, but it requires navigating a labyrinth of justifications.

The simpler answer is he's town.

hebichan/OnTheMark

Spoiler: OTM

I had OnTheMark as a hard townread because of a combination of his role (and play surrounding it) and general feeling around him indicating him to be town. I was kept from locktowning OnTheMark because my reasons were role and general feeling; there was no tangible reason I could point to, which was troubling enough that I wasn't willing to make that call at the time. I lacked hard evidence to prove it.

However, the process of unpacking my thoughts revealed one to me which I can lock onto. OnTheMark can now be locktowned because of OnTheMark's modus operandi as pun. If you assume wilky is town, then his failed action is hard, absolute proof of OnTheMark's innocence. This may seem counterintuitive; why does wilky as town with a failed action prove rather than condemn OnTheMark?

Because we are assuming that if wilky is town, his failure comes from pun. And if the source of his failure comes from pun, then OnTheMark would never abide by it in the first place. OnTheMark would never, EVER accept forcing a deliberate 1v1 with a player. He prefers subtle sabotage, not flagrantly blatant sabotage. If he sabotages a town action, he attempts to leave no trace of it, and being a claimed blocker with wilky's action failing is in no way, shape, or form subtle.

If OnTheMark were pun, he'd know wilky's failed action would create the 1v1. Yes, he may get wilky lynched by entering into that 1v1. Yet after having done so, he automatically earns himself a vig, and if he miraculously dodges the bullet, a lynch. That, not taking into account the possibility he

loses

the 1v1, getting lynched today, thus creating a player that otherwise would be a mislynch who is instead not only conftown but an investigative to boot.

As a result, OnTHeMark would adamantly, vehemently oppose any plan which would create the 1v1. I can cite past games if need be, but he himself any many others should be able to vouch for this description as accurate; avoiding giving the town confscum/conftown in the form of him/wilky.

Since wilky's action did fail, and I do think wilky to be town, you can thus conclude OnTheMark is by proxy also town, and as a result earns Impossibear's spot in my locktown.

Strong Townreads

HIGHLY LIKELY TOWN:

Ankamius

Spoiler: Ankamius

This is a read based largely on me liking her thought process. The things she is doing look town. However, some element is absent which prevents me from locking her in as town. (What that element is, I do not know.) Additionally, separately from that, we're not synchronizing as well as I'd expect; I would anticipate her being my mius. This gives further hesitance, similar to my Impossibear feelings. All that said, she's still my strongest read I don't have as locktown.

Alchemist21

Spoiler: Alchemist21

My initial townread came from Ankamius's description of his play, which was one of the things I felt was dead on the mark in her analysis. Since then, I've had further exposure in the form of the first 20 pages of the game plus reading his content since I have replaced in; everything I've witnessed backs that initial assessment, with the tinders of a townread strongly present. Conclusion, strongly likely to be town, but not locktown.

Impossibear

Spoiler: Impossibear

I believe they hold a killing power and used it N1 on ManWithNoName. I believe they genuinely think (or thought at the very least) they were the N1 nightkill, saved by their bulletproof. Combining these two is the main source of the townread, but I can also cite strong potential for them gamesolving. However, upon unpacking my thoughts, I want to have them trade places with OnTheMark on my readslist. On the OTM side, you'll see why when I get there, but here for Impossibear, the reason for the degenerated read is that there are some potential red flags to them attempting to lead us astray. I still maintain they are more likely town than not, but it's not impossibear for them to be pun.

verylazy/Kokichi Oma

Spoiler: Kokichi Oma

Instead of describing what I like first, I'll start by raising why I hesitate to call him town. I was incredibly suspicious of his predecessor, and he is a skilled enough pun player to fool even those that claim they can read him, causing them to falsely clear him as town. In spite of those factors, I actually

do

hold some faith in Kaede's townread there. Additionally, I don't believe Kokichi-Maria is pun theater.

What I DO believe is that Kokichi Oma can genuinely read MariaR. I also don't believe he is lying about the read as town. Furthermore, I feel he wouldn't falsely punread her if he were pun. If he were pun, I strongly believe his strategy would be to hard-defend her, to white knight her if need be, and he is not doing that here, which is promising.

Nulls

LEFTOVERS:

Ramcius

Spoiler: Ramicus

I've basically explained this read already, but in short, while I haven't liked much of his content, I do like some of his more recent contributions and I feel like his interactions are not viable as pun bussing. That head-to-head is simply suicidal and I don't buy it.

davesaz

Spoiler: davesaz

When I started reading, I had foreknowledge that davesaz's miller claim was apparently retracted/changed into 'some negative utility' at a later point. This would explain his rather dodgy early actions and play, so I was willing to write it off as null. I would say that I would normally be heavily inclined to punread him otherwise. There is literally nothing town about him, but if I'm honest, the most daving thing is simply POE;

someone

has to be the fourth and I think he's the best candidate. Also, there is the chance he was in fact blocked N1.

Strong Punreads

STRONG PUNREADS:

MariaR

Spoiler: MariaR

My punread here is four-fold: Dodgy, sketchy play; setup speculation plus night action results; personal experience with her meta; trusting in Kokichi Oma's personal meta experience. Each of these, I can explain in detail.

MariaR is basically actively lurking through this game; she is frequently and consistently failing to provide pertinent game content and I can cite many instances including prod dodges which are absent in other games she is a player in. There's a bunch of posts I can quote but this is perhaps best done in a followthrough post as compiling the entire list here would make this post 20 times longer.

Setup speculation indicates we should have a pun in the investigative claims. We have MariaR's, we have the proven track from Ouroboros, we have wilky's delayed cop, we have Kaede's IC as conftown, we have Jungle's claimed ability to make another player's alignment revealed (even if he messed up on making it work), and in that pool you can reasonably expect there to be a pun.

It wasn't Ouroboros.
It's not Kaede.
I have townreads on wilky and Jungle.
Ergo, MariaR's role is likely a truthful investigative, just belonging to pun.

This is magnified by the outcome of events. Ouroboros just so happened to recruit MariaR at apparently the earliest opportunity. And then Ouroboros just so happened to die almost immediately after that. I feel the two events are in fact linked together. Yes, Ouroboros had other reasons to die, but I think that role contributed to it because pun knew what their role was.

My own experience with MariaR indicates this is far more likely to be her pungame than her towngame.

And then when you throw in that Kokichi Oma is perhaps the player on site I would most trust to be able to read her and he says she's pun, then I really think we should Maki this wagon happen sooner rather than later.

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Spoiler: Nero Can/projectmatt

I've been a close associate of Nero Cain's since before most of the players in this game even joined mafiascum. Over the years, I have gotten to know his play intimately. He can be aptly described as a ruder, more competent, more arrogant version of Creature.

By which, I mean, regardless of his alignment, he's going to be an ass, who presents a holier-than-thou attitude. Regardless of his alignment, his charisma is dismal. However, at his base, the same core tell always works on him regardless; when he is town, he is incredibly active to the point of being almost a spam poster, providing reads which are strong, confident, and accurate. He is in your face and always has something to say with what he says being game content rather than fluff.

When he is pun, he is a lurker. Mostly just lurking, since he does produce actual content when around (just at a far more infrequent rate), but he does a fair share of active lurking as well. I Cain tell you, having known him for the years that I have, this is squarely in the latter category. He was doing almost nothing the entire time he was around. If he were town, he'd have been all over Ventriloquist as well. His list of sins is great, and I'm not sure I can even properly describe all of them because as such a long-time associate these are things I just know rather than needing to explain to others.

I haven't gotten the chance to really read projectmatt content since then, but I wouldn't need to in order to conclude pun.

That having been said, the little content I have seen indicates pun as well. For instance, the Wraith defense at day end

did

seem like TMI, knowing he was going to flip town and hoping to earn town credit from not being on the lynch wagon.

There. Now you only have to read the parts which you wish to.

No excuses for skipping it.

[Impossibear]

Spoiler: WRT OTM/ALCH

@Impossibear,

did Jingle ever give input on the Party Starter?

Everyone else is saying OTM is just stubborn Town but I still have a hard time seeing it.

P-edit: Now that I can agree with. :/

My drunk post ate my input. Sorry.

Town OTM and town you is possible if we make the additional assumption of Scum JK/Busdriver. Preliminary setup spec says that the odds of one of those two is near 100%, because there's no scum motivation to give US specifically the Party Starter and OTM has been playing to their town meta. There is no way your role and OTM's are both town without another role affected by your role. And, having made that bit of theory leap, your role is almost outed already, so I'm just going to stop talking in riddles about this particular piece of information.

Alchemist gave us a Party Starter last night. I confirmed this to him via crumb early today and he responded in kind, so I'm 100% sure it came from him. The party starter makes us strong willed.

There is no scum motivation to giving the vig the Party Starter if the vig is hard townreading you (we were, fairly obviously). There is no scum motivation in NOT giving the strong willed modifier to your partner if there is a town RB. OTM claimed yesterday. The paranoia wrt to OTM makes perfect sense from someone who isn't nuts in the exact same way as me

This doesn't discount the OTM is town argument, however. I don't see OTM as a player reacting to the hebi situation the same way as scum. The dave target N1 was an objectively good RB target for town. It was an objectively terrible target for scum, and claiming it when you didn't target dave under no pressure makes no sense at all unless we assume hebi is either A. an idiot or B. suicidal. The dave retarget makes sense from the POV of someone absolutely convinced that dave is scum, which fits OTM's play to a T. Compounding that, every word of pun's wall about OTM rings true to my knowledge of them as a player. TBF, I have seen scum OTM much less frequently than town OTM, but this? This is town OTM. This is genuine frustration that people are playing "wrong" not cackling with glee as people play "wrong" and tear themselves apart.

I just don’t think that is a thing. It’s more likely a fruit vendor than a new type of action.

You're looking at this wrong, btw. Someone came up with the new type of action. The question is, was it GiF or Jungle. Given the rest of the setup so far, my bet is heavily on GiF. The reason (THE ONLY REASON) I doubt the claim and think it might be a public fruit vendor is because of the way Jungle approached the quest. Specifically, he did not claim any additional input was necessary from him at the time of the original claim to the best of my knowledge, nor did he object when I claimed my plan to quickhammer any wagon that hit L-1, which apparently would have fucked up his action.

Objectively speaking, Jungle is neither locktown nor confscum. If we lynch him, it's a policy lynch. (A policy lynch I passively support, but ETL thinks he's town so a bad one nonetheless, when we have legitimately scummy players to sort.)

Alch and OTM are both locktown, though not conftown. Jungle is null from a mechanical standpoint, but I could endorse a policy lynch if ETL wasn't townreading the slot independently. Objectively speaking, knowing me/RC are both town, Jungle putting himself in the middle of that fight to calm us both down took balls of steel if he's scum. If I'm wrong about his identity, he's 100% town for it. I find this very unlikely. Either way, thanks for doing so, friend.

Pun is solidly town atm, both because the wall post is exactly what I expect from town pun at this point in the game, AND because of RC's setup spec D2. I can find and link if anyone needs that explained. There are, however, several points that needs be addressed.

Spoiler: Pun Response

GIF already answered your mod question. The player flips with whatever role they died with, and the swap could be used ad nauseam. As such, we know that Vent was a roleswapper when he died, but not what role he entered the game with, suggesting that the rest of the scumteam has an incredible amount of power, but probably not a godfather.

Your Maria read is based partially on an inconsistency in claims. This is not the case. AFAICR, there is nothing suggesting that Maria has an investigative independent of her shared investigative with RC. However, the rest of your analysis of her play rings true and I support the scumread there.

With that said, I'm going to drop an action plan for Maria shortly to hopefully turn her and her neighbor into a mason pair, so it's a bad lynch today anyway.

I remain unsure we were the nightkill N1. I also maintain that it really doesn't matter, from a guilty/inno on dave perspective. We simply don't know enough to know if there is another hidden action manipulating things, and I find it likely there is.

I don't think you should telegraph your hide tonight because:

Spoiler: There's probably a busdriver

So, I mentioned earlier that there being a busdriver necessarily means that OTM/Alch could both be town. Here's why it's probably that specific role, or at least a role in that family.

When I said that the Party Starter made us strongwilled, that was a slight lie. GiF didn't use that modifier, he spelled out what that modifier does. This is evidence that GiF is unaware of the modifier's existence, but also weak evidence that there is both a blocking and redirecting role in the setup.

Busdriver interacts favorably with vigs, hiders, slowcops, and Jungle's role. It significantly reduces the amount of power available to us by making it so that if we choose predictable targets, scum can turn our kill into a second scumkill. It gives scum a chance to fuck with the hider role in a way that makes the modification to the hider role important. It can't give fake guilties, real guilties, and can be an extra scumkill if used poorly. The slowcop interaction is almost as strong as a roleblocker, but not quite. See, with a redirector/busdriver, wilky has a chance to hit the player he was redirected to the next night.

The NAR portion of OTM's role also suggests that this kind of role exists. Basically, from what I can glean OTM is motivated (They act first). This resolves the potential action interaction annoyance of having multiple blocking/redirecting roles in the same setup. This means town has a way of making the scum kill not a functional strongman (should scum choose to use their busdriver that way).

Jungle's role also interacts favorably with a busdriver. The public portion of the quest tells him immediately if he's redirected, and if his role is town he can now inform us that the role exists and he was redirected.

And finally:

Spoiler: @ Maria

Lynching Maria today is DUMB.

Lynching Dunn is interesting, in that if he has an active power that's basically a hard guilty on Maria, but I don't really want to consider or the implications thereof atm.

Here's how we deal with the Maria sitch:

1. Maria outs neighborhood partner. Said partner corroborates or CC's all information received from Maria today.
2. Maria confirms with GIF that they still have access to the group track.
3. Maria tells us whether they have/had daytalk.
4. Maria confirms with GIF whether a roleblock on a member of the neighborhood will stop the track, or whether every member of the neighborhood needs to be roleblocked to stop the track.
5. Maria targets us or OTM tonight (Or Kaede). If they receive a result, they become a pair of masons. If they don't, then there is confirmed a scum in the grouping. Yes, I am confirming we will use our murderlating powers tonight.
6. Maria tells us whether she was recruited to the neighborhood thread overnight or at Daystart.

Clearly I'm making some assumptions about how the role works here, but I think I covered all the relevant questions that neighborhood members need to ask.

[projectmatt]

impossibear, you never responded to my question. why do you sr me?

[Ankamius]

Pun, do you have experience with projectmatt?

[Ramcius]

1. alright. if you're going to stick to that point, then surely you can agree with me that you voting ank on d1 when people weren't interested in their lynch is posturing too. hold yourself to the same standard.

2. so in other words, you never indicated that vent was confirmed scum to you in spite of saying that you did. you barely pushed on him. i'm not asking you to park your vote, but the fact that you had a super confident scumread on one person that was so strong that it was the basis for your other scumreads makes it was weird that you barely pushed on them or explained your read at all.

3. i'm talking about the d1 push. i even said "your push on d1" in the thing you're responding to...

4. that's not a counter-argument, just a snarky response.

5. i don't understand. what does rc's post have to do with that?

6. that's super condescending. do you seriously think that i don't understand what game flow means? give me a break. it's clear to me that you're avoiding directly responding to me because you don't want your shoddy logic to be seen.

7. no. that isn't how mafia works. mafia have a tendency to try to sow doubt/cynicism into games, and they especially try to discredit reads/wagon analysis that would be detrimental to them.

8. first of all, it allows you to use the same argument you're using now as scum. also, attention as mafia is not a bad thing. there's no reason why what you did yesterday would give you negative attention, and that makes it dishonest to imply it created a target on your back. we can know that isn't true because nobody is pushing on you for that.

1. Same standard? I wasn't trying save Vent, while you claiming you attempted to save Wraith. If you want same standard, compare my push on Wraith to save Dave and your push on me to save Wraith

2. Oh, i see now, you calling me scum for D1 reaction test on Ank?

4. ofc, what else you expect, if you refuse to check my playstyle? Hint, RC knew my meta pretty well and didn't pushed me for that, so...

5. then it's your problem, not mine

6. but you obviously don't understand - you can't even understand difference, when i'm ok with main wagon and i put vote for some pressure to get better read and when i go for lynch, when i disagree with main wagon

7. Why my stance to Wraith wagon is discredit, but Kokichi's is not? He didn't provided any argument to support his stance, neither he tried pursuit scums or analyse Wraith wagon?

8. i would agree with you, if i wasn't second biggest wagon...

Also, simple fact that you ignore everyone, who's voting you and just trying push some bs on me is very telling, you just want 1 more ML before they get yoiu

[Ramcius]

welp, seems i'm 3rd biggest wagon, Maria fooled me...

[Ramcius]

>when your 2 sr's are the biggest wagon
it's Christmas time to see who I can lynch first

btw, why your vote on Pun?

[Ankamius]

Pun, do you have experience with projectmatt?

Actually, can you go more into your Alchemist read specifically?

[Ankamius]

Ugh

*Also

I want answers to both

[projectmatt]

1. Same standard? I wasn't trying save Vent, while you claiming you attempted to save Wraith. If you want same standard, compare my push on Wraith to save Dave and your push on me to save Wraith

2. Oh, i see now, you calling me scum for D1 reaction test on Ank?

4. ofc, what else you expect, if you refuse to check my playstyle? Hint, RC knew my meta pretty well and didn't pushed me for that, so...

5. then it's your problem, not mine

6. but you obviously don't understand - you can't even understand difference, when i'm ok with main wagon and i put vote for some pressure to get better read and when i go for lynch, when i disagree with main wagon

7. Why my stance to Wraith wagon is discredit, but Kokichi's is not? He didn't provided any argument to support his stance, neither he tried pursuit scums or analyse Wraith wagon?

8. i would agree with you, if i wasn't second biggest wagon...

Also, simple fact that you ignore everyone, who's voting you and just trying push some bs on me is very telling, you just want 1 more ML before they get yoiu

1. the entire point is that your vote on ank was posturing because ank had no real chance of getting lynched. again, your logic here does not make any sense whatsoever because it assumes that me townreading wraith and trying to lynch other people is posturing. you should have just admitted that this point doesn't make any sense, dude.

2/3. wait, are you really claiming your vote on ank was a reaction test? for real? that contradicts so many other things that you've said.

4. again, this isn't about your playstyle. at. all. who cares about meta?

5. you're the person who asked me the question, dude. did you even have a reason for bringing it up?

6. you're either missing or intentionally misrepresenting the point. i feel like we're talking in circles.

7. so, your response to me calling out one of your scumtells is to say "but what about this person!? they scumtold too!". scumtells don't exist in a vacuum. i townread kokichi.

8. but nobody is pushing on you for the very thing you're saying put a target on your back.

i'm not ignoring anyone. i literally asked a page ago to talk about my reads with anyone who was online, which was met with no response. that's such a blatant lie.

this is getting frustrating.

[Ankamius]

Matt

I'd gladly talk with you about reads, I mostly can't atm because I'm barely here

[Punreader]

Nero was lurky as scum in Necromancer too.

As a thought experiment. Let me demonstrate to you Nero Cain's meta.
This is a list of every Large Theme Nero Cain has posted in.

This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. While not two pages, that game suffered from numerous hastened deaths; having as many posts as he does there is still impressively large.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. NINE pages. (Caveat: everyone that game had more posts than normal.)
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages, and that's only from two gamedays.
This is just about one of the shortest towngames you'll find from Nero Cain.
This is Nero Cain's more typical iso once more as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Short for him, I will admit.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as a lategame replacement. Keep the timing of his replacement in mind for the amount of volume he produced.
As far as I can tell, Nero Cain was town here. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Shorter than most, but still two pages.
I'm excluding this game as Nero Cain replaced in late during the day and was killed that very same night, unless anyone has objections. If you do object and wish to count it as valid, then may I continue to point out what is more typical?
Such as this Nero Cain iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages. And he only had one day phase to produce it, as he died N1.
Considering the length of the game, this is fairly short, but Nero Cain's iso as town still managed the feat.
I do confess another shorter iso would be this one as town.
I should technically mention this iso here as well is short, but for good reason; note the V/LA which led to him being replaced. To offset that,
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Four pages.
This is a shorter Nero Cain iso as town. It is shorter because they died N1, yet still managed over a hundred posts.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
I am fairly certain Nero Cain is Gollum and thus this is his iso as town. Shorter at two pages, but still broke the barrier.
If Nero Cain is Gollum, This is his iso as town. Two pages, and he died N1 no less.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages, so a bit short given the duration he was alive.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages, so a bit short given the duration he was alive.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Four pages.

This is Nero Cain's iso as pun.
This is Nero Cain's iso as pun. Multiball, to boot. Yet he still didn't post much comparatively speaking.
This is Nero Cain as pun doing respectably well. And it spanned the entire game (he was the last pun alive).
This is a little bit longer an iso from Nero Cain as pun yet he still didn't breach the two-page barrier.
This is the one and only example of Nero Cain breaching the barrier as pun I can find. If I had to suspect, multiball may play a part.
This is Nero Cain as pun across multiple day phases with a hydra partner still failing to breach the barrier.
This is Nero Cain as the last surviving pun coming close but still failing.
This is Nero Cain's iso as pun.
Nero Cain did breach the barrier in this game as pun, but it is noteworthy that game was multiball which I again suspect played a part.
This is Nero Cain's iso as pun.
So this game featured cultafia and thus I'm not sure if he started as town or not, and he did request replacement, but all the same I thought I would mention this Nero Cain iso as pun.

Not mentioned because I know he was in the game as a hydra but I don't know what his account name was: this game.

That is five years' worth of meta on Nero Cain for Large Themes.

Five years

, the last five years, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013 (which I didn't go back to the beginning of the year on, just up until the beginning of March 2013).

Can Nero Cain's activity tell in of itself guarantee his alignment? No, it cannot; there are outliers as town where he produced less content and outliers as pun where he produced more. But it is one of the most solid tells you can have on site. If you doubt the tell, try checking out the towngames I am linking to and compare them to the pungames I am linking to.

This is thoroughly his punplay.

And as projectmatt inherited the slot, he is pun.

[Ramcius]

1. the entire point is that your vote on ank was posturing because ank had no real chance of getting lynched. again, your logic here does not make any sense whatsoever because it assumes that me townreading wraith and trying to lynch other people is posturing. you should have just admitted that this point doesn't make any sense, dude.

2/3. wait, are you really claiming your vote on ank was a reaction test? for real? that contradicts so many other things that you've said.

4. again, this isn't about your playstyle. at. all. who cares about meta?

5. you're the person who asked me the question, dude. did you even have a reason for bringing it up?

6. you're either missing or intentionally misrepresenting the point. i feel like we're talking in circles.

7. so, your response to me calling out one of your scumtells is to say "but what about this person!? they scumtold too!". scumtells don't exist in a vacuum. i townread kokichi.

8. but nobody is pushing on you for the very thing you're saying put a target on your back.

i'm not ignoring anyone. i literally asked a page ago to talk about my reads with anyone who was online, which was met with no response. that's such a blatant lie.

this is getting frustrating.

1. indeed, it's you, who try sell idea about me trying lynch Ank D1, when i didn't

2. D1 vote on Ank was reaction test, yes, i disliked her reaction and started scumread her, where's the problem?

4. You literally was talking about my aggressive/cocky playstyle and how it shows that i'm scum

5. What did i asked? You asked about my read change on you, then you brought up my "peer pressure" response, do you even remember what we talking?

6. Sorry that i don't agree with your attempt to shade me - i was totally fine with Ank not being lynched D1, while you wanted me dead D2, how that's same?

7. Top level hipocrisy. Mine and Kokichi's stances were valid equally, yet you attack only me, also, you ignored fact that he defended you without giving any reason, yet you called me out for saying we should wait Jungle before making judgement and said i wax posturing and defending him

8. I won't even try explain anymore this, you just can't understand simple concepts

indeed, it's getting frustrating, so i just stop answering these

[Punreader]

(I'll be a bit miffed if nobody takes the time to at least take a cursory look at what I just provided given it took me an hour to compile just five years out of the total of eight years of Large Theme games.)

[projectmatt]

Ramcius, it's impossible to debate with you because your only technique is to deflect questions against you with absurd and contradictory points. I've pointed out a lot of these, but you keep moving the goalposts. It's not worth it.

@EVERYONE,

please read Ramcius's last few posts. I think they're really telling of scum-flailing.

Matt

I'd gladly talk with you about reads, I mostly can't atm because I'm barely here

Awesome. What do you think of wilky/dave/alchemist? I'm trying to sort those slots ATM.

[projectmatt]

(I'll be a bit miffed if nobody takes the time to at least take a cursory look at what I just provided given it took me an hour to compile just five years out of the total of eight years of Large Theme games.)

i appreciate the effort, but i'm not going to respond to the meta-case because i don't know nero cain and it would be silly to try to argue about something so subjective.

could you do me a favor and iso me? you've implied that you haven't read a lot of my posts. or, at the very least, read the last couple of pages comprehensively.

[MariaR]

question if we're not lynching me or my partner why do I need to out the hood today