Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[the worst]

Fuggles that was 100% IIOA

can you please find mafia if you are not mafia, if you flip town I am going to be mad at you outside of the game

[Not_Mafia]

I'm Not_Mafia

[the worst]

sorry mb

[the worst]

just clarifying you're not actually pretending to cc seer right

[Not_Mafia]

No because I am seer

[the worst]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Sando]

AP is selling a lemon. It's too good a deal for town except for two things: He'll 100% shoot TW tonight, and it'd be ballsy for AP to nominate his WW partner, so fuggo is mafia/town.

Best outcome for town at this point is WWs dead end of tomorrow...we should lynch someone with at least a chance of being WW, that aint fuggo imo.

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: AP

[the worst]

AP is selling a lemon. It's too good a deal for town except for two things: He'll 100% shoot TW tonight, and it'd be ballsy for AP to nominate his WW partner, so fuggo is mafia/town.

Best outcome for town at this point is WWs dead end of tomorrow...we should lynch someone with at least a chance of being WW, that aint fuggo imo.

yea na lynching mafia today is optimal

[Sando]

yea na lynching mafia today is optimal

You mean "more fun" or "optimal"? Cause...yeah nah, that word doesn't mean what you think it means.

[the worst]

optimaler.

[Pine]

Lynching Wolves today and tomorrow is optimal. Mafia don't have a NK.

[the worst]

but we have a guaranteed wolf lynch for later days >:

[Sando]

but we have a guaranteed wolf lynch for later days >:

getting the non-AP WW today is unequivocally the optimal play. Unlikely and thus potentially makes other plays more viable, but our 100% best outcome is to get a WW today. Getting directed away from a WW lynch hurts town, which is what fugly is.

[the worst]

then where do we lynch Sandizzle?

[Sando]

VOTE: not_mafia

Imo it's piggy. AP was conspicuous in "we should wait for a flip but I can totes read NM" and is flatly refusing to shoot NM. My worry is that I firmly believe AP plans to kill the baby duck tonight, so I don't really see a reason for the hard out defiance about NM, especially given the offer was to said baby duck who was always likely to choose a piggy.

He's also voted both baby duck and AP since the claim has come up, without any input into this whole discussion.

[Not_Mafia]

lololololollooloolo,l,l,l,lolololololo,lol,loollllllllllloloolollololololollololol at the votes on me

[Pine]

I'm pretty hard TRing NM. I'm fine lynching someone other than AP if and ONLY if we think they're Wolf.

[Not_Mafia]

Just lynch the conf scum, I got an AP wolf result, lynch it

[Pine]

I'm pretty hard TRing NM. I'm fine lynching someone other than AP if and ONLY if we think they're Wolf.

[UglyDuck]

Fuggles that was 100% IIOA

can you please find mafia if you are not mafia, if you flip town I am going to be mad at you outside of the game

You gotta pick on name man I am getting confused trying to find myself. Also, while I will find the skum for you - you need to appreciate the vacuum issue. AP is simultaneously promoting two tactics that are advantageous to him in the same way but dependent upon different (or any potential) actions. That is a skum set up. Every. Fucking. Time.

OK I will do your job for you:

-It ain't the fucking cow with tits because they would never tunnel this hard as WW. and they prob would never do this bs cc fake or not fake bs as ww. Move your vote and put it somewhere useful.
- I was so fucking sure it was you and Pintu and I couldn't call either of you out because both of you would just decimate me in a 1v1. That is me being humble. Don't get used to it. Pintu because to much love, you because too many smiley faces. That is not a joke, I have a non-NAI thing about smiley faces.
- Since I am typing this up under the assumption that you are actually the Seer and AP is actually a WW - Here is where I draw logic. AP's partner to this point has interacted with him an extremely low amount.

Probably especially after the guilty call. AP's plan is 100% the way I said it was, if you don't agree I really really wanna hear the justification in which Seer!TW is left alive tomorrow by the WWs.
sooooooo... not to promote a previous stupid plan, but my pool is then narrowed to lurkers [ ] and/or people that are not directly interacting with AP [ ] - that would be specifically wot WWs. **Ill fill in the []'s later - I am tired but there is the concept.**

For Mafia it is more complicated imo. They are down a man right out the gate. Not to be expected to say the least. Normally with 3 I would just not say this bit until tomorrow and assume that there are minimum 2 of them on wagon for a WW!flip because they want that shit gone, but as it is they are kind of forced to be more careful.

I think it is one of Pine or Sando.
After that I am back on the Skitter train.

Then I need to re read more shit, get a flip or I am flipping coins.

and of course. there is this fun fact. Some one recently finally pointed something out that I could not myself given the situation. The only upside to not lynching AP is to have a chance to lynch the other WW. So either someone needs to come up with a really good call on that, or literally I think the play would be to (and I already know how this is gonna sound)... but the play is to remove "conf!Mafia" and "conf!Town" and lynch in that pool. which, as they will kill TW tonight either way... is probably the best play.

[Sando]

and of course. there is this fun fact. Some one recently finally pointed something out that I could not myself given the situation. The only upside to not lynching AP is to have a chance to lynch the other WW. So either someone needs to come up with a really good call on that, or literally I think the play would be to (and I already know how this is gonna sound)... but the play is to remove "conf!Mafia" and "conf!Town" and lynch in that pool. which, as they will kill TW tonight either way... is probably the best play.

Why couldn't you point it out? All I pointed out is that lynching the non-wolf person is a bad idea right now. That's something that benefits both town and mafia, and it's not like I feel people should TR me for saying it, I'd say it as both Mafia and Town.

I feel like we're deep enough into the AP train to say this: Mafia want AP lynched today. That guarantees they're safe from todays lynch and with TW dying overnight they're safe from the overnight kill, and they're left with one WW to lynch before they're safe from NKs.

The fact that you, fuggo, are worried about how it'll look to speculate on something yet also pushing the Mafia play, says to me you're very likely Mafia here.

That said, I'm happy to look elsewhere than NM for the other WW today.

[skitter30]

tw do you still think cj is a viable AP partner? I"m not sure if he hops on after I pushed AP but before you outed the guilty as a partner, especially in a setup without daytalk. Also the posting on page 57 doesn't feel partner-y to me

--

So we can sort the rest.

What sort out the 1 wolf and

1 mafia

that don’t know who each other are after a guilty has been claimed? Like what... they Are gonna mess up now on a day when we “have a result”?

What is it that needs sorting out?

There are two mafia left?

I'm trying to decide if you're like trying to fake a slip with that or something

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Lynch UD. If he flips town I shoot someone of tw's choice. That's also fair enough bc if I hit a Mafioso we are 2-1-5 tomorrow, and if I hit a townie that's 2-2-4, but I'm tomorrow's lynch anyway AND the duckling gets to deliver one more result on who is/isn't a WW.

OK I guess I'm a little bit skeptical that you'll actually go along with this plan - if you don't you'll get autolynched tomorrow, but you're getting autolynched tomorrow anyways if we go through with this plan so I'm not sure why it benefits you tonight to shoot tw's pick.

Like if town keeps up their end of the bargain and agrees to lynch you tomorrow instead of today, there's no reason why you can't just break the bargain tonight irregardless of what ud flips since you're getting lynched tomorrow anyways.

Numberwise I think it works out but I don't see why you're incentivized to actually go along with it

but tw thinks you're trustworthy in this regard and he's the one who's dead if you don't go along with it so I guess I'll just let him decide if he's comfortable with it or not.

Actually, if ud is town, we're 2w:2m:5t tonight. if you shoot a townie, we're 2w:2maf:4t tomorrow. you get lynched. at the end of day3 it's 1w:2m:4t. If a townie gets shot night3, it's 1w:2m:3t day4, which makes me kinda uncomfortable. the game is basically perpetually mylo at that point.

--

fumuki's still town

--

If you lynch me, whatever do it, just lynch TW tomorrow.

You know you're suggesting lynching the seer, right?

And the prob AP. And then if skitter is alive.. skitter.

'and then I'm

alive

' -> is this like supposed to imply that you think I ought to be nk'd at some point and that if I'm not I'm scum? In this setup that would be wolf indicative, but the notion that I'm a wolf in this game is literally laughable.

--

1) TW claims Seer, but then Not Mafia Counter Claims him? Kind of... like I guess that is question #1 I find it hard to take NM seriously so is that just like sarcasm/joke or are they actually claiming?

he's meming

wrt point 3 - your logic doesn't make sense. tw can't be shot overnight if he's a wolf. if you flip mafia, ww!ap will shoot seer!tw and the game will be 2w:1m:5t tomorrow with ap getting lynched tomorrow. day4 it would either be 1w:1m:4 town or 1w:5town depending on who got shot night 3 after ap gets lynched.

I feel like you're more worried about the wolves being alive day4 than mafia being alive day4. I'm more worried about the 1w:2m:3t situation because mafia have a fairly advantage number-wise and can herd votes the way they want to with the numbers more easily

ok I'll pick up at page 61 tomorrow

[the worst]

tw do you still think cj is a viable AP partner? I"m not sure if he hops on after I pushed AP but before you outed the guilty as a partner, especially in a setup without daytalk. Also the posting on page 57 doesn't feel partner-y to me

tbh I think this is a good take
kinda starting to think CJV = town

[the worst]

it's in AP's best interest to whittle down the numbers on both town & mafia, so I can't really see him going all out and mowing town the fuck down only to leave his 1 buddy exposed to 2 mafia and imminent endgaming