Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[EspeciallyTheLies]

can we lynch davesaz for blatantly pushing scum wincon?

what scum wincon did he push?

I'd rather lynch pmatt today.

that little getting roleblocked thing by OtM yesterday is also

really

fishy...

Explain what you mean.

Let's chat about reads while you're here.

ETL

[OnTheMark]

It has fuck all to do with your role. Stop acting like you blocking dave and wilky failing are in any way fucking related whatsoever if a redirector exists, which it fucking does. End of story.

ETL

Yay more ETL screaming at me.

As if that is gonna ‘convince’ me. You’re literally inventing a redirector when there is no proof any exists.

Going to work.

[Impossibear]

can we lynch davesaz for blatantly pushing scum wincon?

what scum wincon did he push?

I'd rather lynch pmatt today.

that little getting roleblocked thing by OtM yesterday is also

really

fishy...

Explain what you mean.

Let's chat about reads while you're here.

ETL

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

and then ETL disappears.

or is writing a giant wall.

p-edit okay sure!

read daveasz vs punreader and see if dave doesnt come across as extremely scummy while pun comes off as extra townie

[Impossibear]

You’re literally inventing a redirector when there is no proof any exists.

WE HAVE PROOF..... ????????????

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

It has fuck all to do with your role. Stop acting like you blocking dave and wilky failing are in any way fucking related whatsoever if a redirector exists, which it fucking does. End of story.

ETL

Yay more ETL screaming at me.

As if that is gonna ‘convince’ me. You’re literally inventing a redirector when there is no proof any exists.

Going to work.

if good titus cant convince evil titus.... no one can convince evil titus...

[Impossibear]

read daveasz vs punreader and see if dave doesnt come across as extremely scummy while pun comes off as extra townie

Ok, I'll review these two together. I personally think it is the other way around.

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

that little getting roleblocked thing by OtM yesterday is also

really

fishy...

Explain what you mean.

Let's chat about reads while you're here.

ETL

remember how OtM was making a GIANT FUSS about roleblocking scum yesterday... and no kill... blah blah...?

what if... WHAT IF... dave actually submitted the nightkill and got roleblocked?

well, we ignored it because you are bulletproof

but his actions are scummy now

he is blatantly pushing REALMEN even though its clearly 100% proofed bullshit by mister punreader

and cannot respond to logic, all the logic flaws are obvious

now you may argue: "well, we've seen dumber towns than that!"

but sometimes, scum are just scum. and they do things to push scum agenda.

the best REAL MEN SCUM can push scum agenda while looking towny. you know you can do so too.

why exempt daveasz?

[Impossibear]

Spoiler: WRT OTM/ALCH

@Impossibear,

did Jingle ever give input on the Party Starter?

Everyone else is saying OTM is just stubborn Town but I still have a hard time seeing it.

P-edit: Now that I can agree with. :/

My drunk post ate my input. Sorry.

Town OTM and town you is possible if we make the additional assumption of Scum JK/Busdriver. Preliminary setup spec says that the odds of one of those two is near 100%, because there's no scum motivation to give US specifically the Party Starter and OTM has been playing to their town meta. There is no way your role and OTM's are both town without another role affected by your role. And, having made that bit of theory leap, your role is almost outed already, so I'm just going to stop talking in riddles about this particular piece of information.

Alchemist gave us a Party Starter last night. I confirmed this to him via crumb early today and he responded in kind, so I'm 100% sure it came from him. The party starter makes us strong willed.

There is no scum motivation to giving the vig the Party Starter if the vig is hard townreading you (we were, fairly obviously). There is no scum motivation in NOT giving the strong willed modifier to your partner if there is a town RB. OTM claimed yesterday. The paranoia wrt to OTM makes perfect sense from someone who isn't nuts in the exact same way as me

This doesn't discount the OTM is town argument, however. I don't see OTM as a player reacting to the hebi situation the same way as scum. The dave target N1 was an objectively good RB target for town. It was an objectively terrible target for scum, and claiming it when you didn't target dave under no pressure makes no sense at all unless we assume hebi is either A. an idiot or B. suicidal. The dave retarget makes sense from the POV of someone absolutely convinced that dave is scum, which fits OTM's play to a T. Compounding that, every word of pun's wall about OTM rings true to my knowledge of them as a player. TBF, I have seen scum OTM much less frequently than town OTM, but this? This is town OTM. This is genuine frustration that people are playing "wrong" not cackling with glee as people play "wrong" and tear themselves apart.

I just don’t think that is a thing. It’s more likely a fruit vendor than a new type of action.

You're looking at this wrong, btw. Someone came up with the new type of action. The question is, was it GiF or Jungle. Given the rest of the setup so far, my bet is heavily on GiF. The reason (THE ONLY REASON) I doubt the claim and think it might be a public fruit vendor is because of the way Jungle approached the quest. Specifically, he did not claim any additional input was necessary from him at the time of the original claim to the best of my knowledge, nor did he object when I claimed my plan to quickhammer any wagon that hit L-1, which apparently would have fucked up his action.

Objectively speaking, Jungle is neither locktown nor confscum. If we lynch him, it's a policy lynch. (A policy lynch I passively support, but ETL thinks he's town so a bad one nonetheless, when we have legitimately scummy players to sort.)

Alch and OTM are both locktown, though not conftown. Jungle is null from a mechanical standpoint, but I could endorse a policy lynch if ETL wasn't townreading the slot independently. Objectively speaking, knowing me/RC are both town, Jungle putting himself in the middle of that fight to calm us both down took balls of steel if he's scum. If I'm wrong about his identity, he's 100% town for it. I find this very unlikely. Either way, thanks for doing so, friend.

Pun is solidly town atm, both because the wall post is exactly what I expect from town pun at this point in the game, AND because of RC's setup spec D2. I can find and link if anyone needs that explained. There are, however, several points that needs be addressed.

Spoiler: Pun Response

GIF already answered your mod question. The player flips with whatever role they died with, and the swap could be used ad nauseam. As such, we know that Vent was a roleswapper when he died, but not what role he entered the game with, suggesting that the rest of the scumteam has an incredible amount of power, but probably not a godfather.

Your Maria read is based partially on an inconsistency in claims. This is not the case. AFAICR, there is nothing suggesting that Maria has an investigative independent of her shared investigative with RC. However, the rest of your analysis of her play rings true and I support the scumread there.

With that said, I'm going to drop an action plan for Maria shortly to hopefully turn her and her neighbor into a mason pair, so it's a bad lynch today anyway.

I remain unsure we were the nightkill N1. I also maintain that it really doesn't matter, from a guilty/inno on dave perspective. We simply don't know enough to know if there is another hidden action manipulating things, and I find it likely there is.

I don't think you should telegraph your hide tonight because:

Spoiler: There's probably a busdriver

So, I mentioned earlier that there being a busdriver necessarily means that OTM/Alch could both be town. Here's why it's probably that specific role, or at least a role in that family.

When I said that the Party Starter made us strongwilled, that was a slight lie. GiF didn't use that modifier, he spelled out what that modifier does. This is evidence that GiF is unaware of the modifier's existence, but also weak evidence that there is both a blocking and redirecting role in the setup.

Busdriver interacts favorably with vigs, hiders, slowcops, and Jungle's role. It significantly reduces the amount of power available to us by making it so that if we choose predictable targets, scum can turn our kill into a second scumkill. It gives scum a chance to fuck with the hider role in a way that makes the modification to the hider role important. It can't give fake guilties, real guilties, and can be an extra scumkill if used poorly. The slowcop interaction is almost as strong as a roleblocker, but not quite. See, with a redirector/busdriver, wilky has a chance to hit the player he was redirected to the next night.

The NAR portion of OTM's role also suggests that this kind of role exists. Basically, from what I can glean OTM is motivated (They act first). This resolves the potential action interaction annoyance of having multiple blocking/redirecting roles in the same setup. This means town has a way of making the scum kill not a functional strongman (should scum choose to use their busdriver that way).

Jungle's role also interacts favorably with a busdriver. The public portion of the quest tells him immediately if he's redirected, and if his role is town he can now inform us that the role exists and he was redirected.

And finally:

Spoiler: @ Maria

Lynching Maria today is DUMB.

Lynching Dunn is interesting, in that if he has an active power that's basically a hard guilty on Maria, but I don't really want to consider or the implications thereof atm.

Here's how we deal with the Maria sitch:

1. Maria outs neighborhood partner. Said partner corroborates or CC's all information received from Maria today.
2. Maria confirms with GIF that they still have access to the group track.
3. Maria tells us whether they have/had daytalk.
4. Maria confirms with GIF whether a roleblock on a member of the neighborhood will stop the track, or whether every member of the neighborhood needs to be roleblocked to stop the track.
5. Maria targets us or OTM tonight (Or Kaede). If they receive a result, they become a pair of masons. If they don't, then there is confirmed a scum in the grouping. Yes, I am confirming we will use our murderlating powers tonight.
6. Maria tells us whether she was recruited to the neighborhood thread overnight or at Daystart.

Clearly I'm making some assumptions about how the role works here, but I think I covered all the relevant questions that neighborhood members need to ask.

^^^ PROOF OF REDIRECTOR-TYPE ROLE IN THE GAME ^^^

LRN2RD OTM.

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

thats why they're not a lawyer

[Impossibear]

that little getting roleblocked thing by OtM yesterday is also

really

fishy...

Explain what you mean.

Let's chat about reads while you're here.

ETL

remember how OtM was making a GIANT FUSS about roleblocking scum yesterday... and no kill... blah blah...?

what if... WHAT IF... dave actually submitted the nightkill and got roleblocked?

I ackowledge that is absolutely a possibility.

well, we ignored it because you are bulletproof

but his actions are scummy now

he is blatantly pushing REALMEN even though its clearly 100% proofed bullshit by mister punreader

I personally don't trust the punreader slot at all. I know that player is very capable of logical-sounding posts, that may even agree with town consensus, but in retrospect and with more information, it's possible that they are simply reinforcing town mistakes. as of this moment, i do not know one way or the other and am leaving that read primarily to Jingle for now.

and cannot respond to logic, all the logic flaws are obvious

Ok, this I want to see. Specifically what points were raised that Dave was unable to refute and what flaws were present? I will admit that I have skimmed a lot the last week.

now you may argue: "well, we've seen dumber towns than that!"

but sometimes, scum are just scum. and they do things to push scum agenda.

the best REAL MEN SCUM can push scum agenda while looking towny. you know you can do so too.

why exempt daveasz?

He's not entirely exempt from my personal lynchpool. I'm reevaluating my PoE list at the moment.

I'm concerned that pmatt's emotion the last few pages is looking like town frustration, and I can't tell if it's real or faked. Can you?

ETL

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

i have taken a look, and although it looks >rand town, it can be faked by a player of high skill level. such as myself and yourself.

do we have any gauge of pmatt's skill level? i recall some players earlier saying that he was a very good player. or something.

[Impossibear]

i have taken a look, and although it looks >rand town, it can be faked by a player of high skill level. such as myself and yourself.

do we have any gauge of pmatt's skill level? i recall some players earlier saying that he was a very good player. or something.

I've only played a couple times with him and have no personal gauge of his skill, but have also heard he is very good and can easily be townread as scum. I don't necessarily want to decide this on his ability though. I want to decide if this is really the right decision to be making today.

Are you proficient in reading Ankamius?

ETL

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

i have taken a look, and although it looks >rand town, it can be faked by a player of high skill level. such as myself and yourself.

do we have any gauge of pmatt's skill level? i recall some players earlier saying that he was a very good player. or something.

I've only played a couple times with him and have no personal gauge of his skill, but have also heard he is very good and can easily be townread as scum. I don't necessarily want to decide this on his ability though. I want to decide if this is really the right decision to be making today.

Are you proficient in reading Ankamius?

ETL

yeah anka is town here

[Impossibear]

I think we maybe need to go back to ventriloquist's ISO...

[Ankamius]

I heard my name

Am I needed for anything?

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

VOTE: Ramcius

agree, that's good wagon

I don't understand why a townie (moreover, anyone) would vote for themselves - seems like you saw a wagon forming and then panicked to try and loosen the noose around your neck. Also, why change your vote to Wilky seemingly just because Ouroboros called you out for it? Please explain your logic.

VOTE: Ramcius

well the first thing i saw was ramcius spewed town

still a good vig target

except that he replaced out!

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

thats all i have from his junk tiny ISO that is likely smaller than his MAN parts

[Ankamius]

Realmen did you answer the question I had about how much experience you have with e? I don't remember getting a response to that

[Ankamius]

With me*

My tablet is tiny sorry

[Ankamius]

Ramcius, it's impossible to debate with you because your only technique is to deflect questions against you with absurd and contradictory points. I've pointed out a lot of these, but you keep moving the goalposts. It's not worth it.

@EVERYONE,

please read Ramcius's last few posts. I think they're really telling of scum-flailing.

Matt

I'd gladly talk with you about reads, I mostly can't atm because I'm barely here

Awesome. What do you think of wilky/dave/alchemist? I'm trying to sort those slots ATM.

Probably town/poescum/probably town

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

Realmen did you answer the question I had about how much experience you have with e? I don't remember getting a response to that

decline to answer

[Impossibear]

OK, so... going off straight non-WIFOM associations, assuming vent tried only to shade townies, and either waffled or townread buddies, here's what we've got:

Spoiler: PBPA

235 throws shade at tchill & wilky
238 goes after Ram for self-voting.
434 says he scumreads ram and MWNN [town] tries to deflect RC's accusation of lurking onto hebichan & RMOJ
739 defends us against RC. I suddenly see why they were so hellbent on us being scum.... This tells me specifically they were likely to buddy townies.

Strongest associations have been ramcius as town, MWNN as town (unfortunately already dead), hebichan/OTM and RMOJ as town. The problem with the ISO is just that they only really engaged with Ouroboros, and only mentioned those people that Ouroboros mentioned besides those few he mentioned early in the ISO, prior to RC's push.

Possible others for town from this might be tchill wilky, but I could see tchill specifically being a partner in this case.

yup PM is scum, but we established that a while back I think.

I wish they had discussed more about what they thought if Wraith were to flip town. I will need to dig a bit deeper for that I think. It's gotta be in there somewhere.

I wasn't the one who led on Wraith here. Kaede was the one who wanted the Wraith lynch, I had wanted the Kokichi lynch.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...... Ok, so the thing that led RC to Wraith was some meta dive he did, some tells he had applied, etc. Perhaps if he hadn't been distracted by these, he'd have gone for Kokichi and/or pmatt.

Kaede says she has specifically close meta townread on Kokichi.

If kokichi is scum that means all he had to do to win the game is pocket you which is something that I believe his style of play excels at more than convincing broader groups that he's town.

@KAEDE

Do you think it's possible Kokichi has done this here or is there some reason I should believe that's out of the question?

ETL

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

yeah, its cool that i arrived at the same conclusions as you did^

unfortunately, they were pretty obvious, or, doesnt really advance the gamestate because we already have those players as town already.

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

or they're dead. that too.