Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Impossibear]

REVIEW

davesaz - RMOJ says this is scum
ankamius - RMOJ says this is town
nero cain/projectmatt - RC says scum
verylazy/kokichi - RC says scum
mariaR
tchill/punreader
dunnstral

bleh. so here's my "to review" list, aka PoE - I am 100% confident the remaining scums are in here. Problem is it's still a fairly large list.

ETL

p-edit yeah i know

[Ankamius]

I'll make a list of things to check and see what that comes up with at some point

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

yeah thats a pretty good review list.

add the part where i say dunnstral is town

punreader is >rand town but i do admit i get paranoia on him too

[Impossibear]

if we're thinking 4 total in this game, which I agree with, 3/7 isn't that bad I suppose. 42% chance of hitting scum today. Can we afford to simply lynch the scummiest out of this pool until they're found or the others are proven to be town?

pedit ok, i missed the dunn read.

[Impossibear]

add the part where i say dunnstral is town

how confident is this read? what is your experience with the player?

ETL

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

if we're thinking 4 total in this game, which I agree with, 3/7 isn't that bad I suppose. 42% chance of hitting scum today. Can we afford to simply lynch the scummiest out of this pool until they're found or the others are proven to be town?

pedit ok, i missed the dunn read.

if you vig the rest, yes we can

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

add the part where i say dunnstral is town

how confident is this read? what is your experience with the player?

ETL

i'm more confident on dunnstral than ankamius

dunnstral is really transparent. he is

easy

[Impossibear]

ok, I'll trust you there for today. dunn and pun can be on hold until i get more info tomorrow.

Investigative abilities should be focused on this group! Targeting outside the PoE will be considered a scumclaim.

higher priority

projectmatt
davesaz
verylazy/kokichi
mariaR

the rest

ankamius
dunnstral
punreader

I think we have a good plan of action right now. The only thing left for today is

Maria to provide the name of the other neighbor

, if such a person even exists. pmatt's flip will indicate lies or not.

and then we will shoot accordingly.

ETL

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

oh yeah, dont forget that daveaz is a miller so technically investigative abilities shouldnt be on him


i wouldnt miss him if u vigged him

[Impossibear]

oh yeah, dont forget that daveaz is a miller so technically investigative abilities shouldnt be on him


i wouldnt miss him if u vigged him

right. true.

that's fine. but only direct investigations will have anything to do with the miller thing. tracks, watches, etc would provide info.

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

yup i think we reached a constructive conclusion here. thanks for the chat ETL. you've been great.

[Impossibear]

♥

this was very helpful for me too

[Kaede Akamatsu]

@KAEDE

Do you think it's possible Kokichi has done this here or is there some reason I should believe that's out of the question?

That is entirely possible, I'm not reading Kokichi myself, im reading the aura surrounding him, or rather, how people react to him and his posting. Kokichi's not a bad player, he's just bad at looking town when town, I have high praise of his ability to read people specially ppl like MariaR who i cannot read.

[Impossibear]

Updated the last VC:

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3): OnTheMark, Kokichi Oma, davesaz
projectmatt (6): Ramcius, Impossibear, punreader, Kaede Akamatsu, MariaR, wilky
Ramcius (2): Ankamius, projectmatt
davesaz (1): REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
wilky (1): dunnstral

My thoughts:

1)

There is scum on the Jungle wagon. It is probably kokichi. Could see dave as well.

2)

There is scum on the ram wagon - thinking pmatt here.

3)

if Maria got a no result on track pmatt, why voting there and not elsewhere? logic doesn't add up and smells of bus.

ETL

p-edit: Ok, understood; thanks

[Impossibear]

I don't think the miller really needs to be talked on and should just focus on the play of said miller. It can be a fake claim but that doesn't mean it's a scum fake claim either. Just focus on day play and if something comes up we can talk about it.

I would rather wilky claim first myself because his whole way of going at it gives me bad vibes that I can't really explain compared to dave

I think Dave can only really be scum if Maria is.

The other problem I have with the maria slot is the fact that as soon as RC recruited them into the hood, they stopped contributing altogether and have been attempting to coast on RC's townread.

PLUS the sketchiness re: the neighborhood itself:
- pmatt flipping with a night action condemns the hood, and confirms that at least one or both are scum.
- pmatt flipping with no night action at least confirms that the result was accurate.
- if maria is town, there is absolutely no reason she should not want this. "protecting" the other neighbor is nonsense at this point and serves no purpose.
- if maria is scum, there is every reason to withhold the name of the neighbor, if there even IS another neighbor, because they want to see who we shoot, so they can claim the proper partner to be the supposed neighbor. requiring maria to reveal the neighbor locks her and the neighbor into a commited claim, and allows the lynch flip and night actions to reveal whether they are lying or not. <<<< if maria is town, this should be very desirable. if maria is scum, she is going to try to avoid this at all costs.

PLUS the fake-AF "scout" bs that hs never not once been explained or discussed.

There's obviously a chance she or both could be town and we can prove it. That is exceptionally high utility for town. This is another reason she should claim who the supposed other neighbor is, because should she or the neighbor die, it still allows us to use the surviving member in PoE to narrow the pool if they are town. The only reason one of them would die is if scum is afraid of the neighborhood becoming a masonry, which they cannot avoid even by killing either of them.

ETL

[davesaz]

If one of the neighbors is scum, they kill the other to avoid getting outed. This is bad but not insurmountable as long as vig doesn't get too trigger happy.
If both of the neighbors is town and the 2nd one is outed, scum kills one of them and then tries to frame the remaining one as a natural result of point 1.
If both neighbors live till tomorrow, then they can out their result.

[Impossibear]

If both of the neighbors is town and the 2nd one is outed, scum kills one of them and then tries to frame the remaining one as a natural result of point 1.

No. They become null and read by play.

Why do you not want to get the most utility from the neighborhood as possible?

[Impossibear]

There is far more utility for town by forcing Maria to commit to who she says the neighbor is rather than allowing scum to manipulate the response once they see who we choose to shoot.

[davesaz]

Maybe I'm the townie who expects to get killed.

[Punreader]

I cannot be busdriven redirected or otherwise tampered with.
My action ends before a redirectors begins.
If Wilky is town which I highly highly doubt, the source cannot in any way shape or form be me.

This is fair. If the moderator specified this to you, then I shall not argue it.

That does not make wilky's claimed failure a 1v1 with you.
wilky can fail,

without your action involved

, because:

• Of targeting a player who was ascetic
  
• Of targeting a player that was rolestopped
  
• Of targeting a player who commuted (or technically, hid, though via me we know that to not be the case)
  
• Of being redirected to any of the above
  
• Of redirection automatically causing his action to fail
  
• Of redirection variant roles (e.g. busdriver, nexus, deflector) automatically causing his action to fail
  
• Of another roleblocking role (e.g. jailkeeper, alien) causing his action to fail

And this is likely an incomplete list.

There are no less than seven potential ways wilky's action, WITHOUT YOUR ACTION BEING INVOLVED AT ALL, could have failed.

So automatically concluding that wilky's claimed failure is a 1v1 with your action is a mistake.

[Punreader]

Because the odds of that are pretty nil

Why? wilky claimed on D1. That gives pun two whole nights to cause his action to fail. If wilky's action were unknown, you'd have a better argument, but everyone knew about it from the onset, and thus, everyone had a way to counter it as pun.

You blocked davesaz, which while an objectively good block is not a block likely to be on a pun power role that can cause wilky's action to fail.

[OnTheMark]

Yet Wilky never outed who he tried to cop because??

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Yet Wilky never outed who he tried to cop because??

he said MariaR

[Punreader]

Ok, this I want to see. Specifically what points were raised that Dave was unable to refute and what flaws were present? I will admit that I have skimmed a lot the last week.

davesaz:

When I started reading, I had foreknowledge that davesaz's miller claim was

apparently retracted/changed into 'some negative utility'

at a later point.

The underlined is incorrect.
I stated that I'm miller. At a later point I said that my "ability" section had flavor in it. There has never been a retraction / change about the role -- it's straight Commonwealth miller with nothing else, and nothing but the flavor in the ability section.

Oh, that makes a difference then. I was under the impression from the list of claims that it had changed later in the game during a section I hadn't read.

With the knowledge it hasn't, you become a reasonably solid punread. Not as solid as MariaR and projectmatt (the Strong Punread section), but enough to have your own special category of "Punread".

Though I'm tempted to lump you in with them for this.

Punreader's analysis assumes a: that scum!Jungle wouldn't gambit, b: that town would inevitably lynch scum!Jungle after these events making it a low chance of success.

Yes, and those are safe assumptions to make as assuming those is working with occam's razor whereas assuming JUNGLE gambits as pun and that the town wouldn't inevitably lynch a pun JUNGLE is a violation of occam's razor.

I don't know if a gambit is likely or unlikely, I just know it can't be ruled out.

Nothing "can be ruled out". There is (almost) nothing which is impossible in a game. (Almost) everything CAN happen.

The job of a town player is to determine

which things most likely

did

happen

.

Gambiting is something which could have happened.
It is not something that is likely to have happened.

Ignoring the probability (rather, lack thereof) of it happening in favor of embracing the possibility it happened is thoroughly a pro-pun agenda.

The PLAN might have been for Impossibear to die, and scum!Jungle is then functionally a loud fruit vendor at very little risk.

When did JUNGLE claim the power? Was it on D1? This is something I don't know.

So feel free to correct me here, if JUNGLE announced his power on D1.

If JUNGLE didn't claim the power until D2, then this scenario you are outlining is impossible. The plan going awry? Well then JUNGLE simply has no need to claim the action.

Not claiming it loses the possibility of using it at all.

Yes, and if the power is pro-town and JUNGLE is pun...why is this a bad thing for the pun?

Having a competent mod design a quest with that degree of complexity and then allowing it to fail on a technicality when the intent was clear stretches credibility a little.

Counterpoint: this is a game moderated by GuyInFreezer. I know his modding well enough to know this is

precisely

the sort of stunt he would pull.

I suppose a mod could be that hardcore and town!Jungle could make that mistake, but it seems very unlikely.

What seems unlikely to me is you trying to find every possible reason to call JUNGLE pun ignoring all the reasons why he is likely town.

Moving on to the question of whether town would inevitably punish scum!Jungle with a lynch -- it seems that WIFOM might be king here and we might not do so simply on the "mistake".

Oh? And where do you draw the line on WIFOM? Everything could be WIFOM. So what WIFOM is 'valid' to you, and what WIFOM is 'invalid' to you? You can call anything WIFOM and I can demonstrate this quite easily if you doubt me. So what makes the possibility here be WIFOM to you worth invoking that name?

But that is very short sighted, to excuse it as human error and not a possible gambit.

No, that is called following occam's razor with a dosage of hanlon's razor:
Not attributing to malice what can best be explained far more simply with stupidity.
The simple answer is stupidity.
The complex answer requiring contrived justifications is malice based on some possible gambit.

If we look at Jungle

outside the quest info

, what would the read be?

If we look at JUNGLE outside of the quest info, the read would be solidly nulltown; there is nothing indicating pun and yet minor signs indicating town.

I've mentioned this before in other games, but I haven't been keeping solid track on who I've seen as scum and who I haven't. So I don't know if I have seen Nero lurk as scum.
I can say conclusively that the argumentative and pushy Nero that I've seen as town was not present in this game. And Projectmatt's posting hasn't struck me as town.

I would be willing to accept a Projectmatt lynch if necessary, but would prefer that we resolve Jungle. If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

"I'm not going to lynch pun #1 in spite of acknowledging the evidence against him".

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

"I'm not going to lynch pun #2 on the basis of role-related reasons; we should wait for her to produce conftown in spite of me having just said we should not allow JUNGLE to produce results". (Hello, hypocrite.)

I know you're IC and all, but nice job on Wraith there. I never did get the explanation that I wanted on that. IC's wanting to lynch obvtown is sadly a thing.

This is the absolute most pro-pun thing a player can do to a person that is conftown; he is attempting to discredit Kaede's push/content now off of Kaede's push yesterday when

Kaede wasn't even the main pusher of the Wraith lynch

.

Did I say davesaz was in a special punread category?

My mistake.

He is in the strong punreads category with MariaR and projectmatt.

I feel perhaps my snark weakens the strength of my point. So to reiterate,

If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

What differentiates these two, davesaz?

You are saying to lynch Jungle on the possibility his role may damage us; you are willing to sacrifice the utility of his ability.

You are saying to not lynch Maria on the possibility her role may help us; you are not willing to sacrifice the utility of her ability.

Care to offer an explanation?

@Kaede -- quote anything from Jungle that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously town. Anything that is making the slightest effort to solve the game.

Innocent until proven guilty; the burden of proof is on the accuser.

@dave: quote anything from JUNGLE that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously pun. Anything that is making the slightest effort to manipulate the town.

Not lynching scum Jungle is likely worse than lynching town Jungle.
I’m very concerned that scum Jungle could play a fruit vendor all the way to endgame. How many broken quests would it take?

This still fails to answer my question.

If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

What differentiates these two, davesaz?

You are saying to lynch Jungle on the possibility his role may damage us; you are willing to sacrifice the utility of his ability.

You are saying to not lynch Maria on the possibility her role may help us; you are not willing to sacrifice the utility of her ability.

Care to offer an explanation?

Sometimes ruling out the unlikely case is necessary. If logical answers always worked town win rates would be higher.

And where, precisely, do you draw the line on ruling out unlikely cases?

Impossibear could be a pun bulletproof vig. That's possible, yes? By your logic, you can and should be calling them pun.

Unless you can tell me how JUNGLE is distinctly different.

Scum lie and because they lie sometimes the unlikely answer is the correct one.

Scum can also be caught in those lies and yet you are adamant we not offer a chance for this to happen. If you're so sure JUNGLE is lying, then why not wait for it to be proven?

Furthermore. I asked you to provide reason aside from the roleclaim for why JUNGLE is suspicious as the burden of proof lies on the accuser. Where is it?

I already said I agree with a projectmatt lynch, if that is where consensus lies.

That is where the consensus lies. Why isn't your vote there?

This is everything I brought up against davesaz.

He has answered but a small fraction of them.

I'm concerned that pmatt's emotion the last few pages is looking like town frustration, and I can't tell if it's real or faked. Can you?

Why are the options "real and town" or "faked and pun"? projectmatt is in a situation which is frustrating regardless of his alignment; as a result, I treat the frustration as not having one.

[Punreader]

The only thing left for today is

Maria to provide the name of the other neighbor

, if such a person even exists. pmatt's flip will indicate lies or not.

She already did; it is davesaz.