Thank you for saying more eloquently what I've been trying to communicate for what seems like a week.In post 1123, roflcopter wrote:so what i am saying is that if old man is a gunsmith there is likely to be ar red herring in the setup, other than the pgo. thus, a half cop that mirrors the half gunsmith is elegant and ticks the red herring box making it the kind of excellent design i would expect from my dawg korts.
Large Normal 212: Korts' Geriatrics - Game Over @1831
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Pine In Your Head
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"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare-
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Tammy Survivor
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Mostly a prod dodge.
I mostly skimmed to get current, but I'll respond to anything tomorrow.
Old Man - Who do you think Lycan's partners are? Because even if you believe you have a guilty, there's more work to do.
Thought I had a question for Eddie, but looking back I misread Pine for Lycan, so NVM.
I don't care about the probably and math stuff at all. It is *possible* they are who they say they are, and that's all that matters for that to me. These types of things do happen from time to time. Whether or not they're telling the truth about their claims is another matter, but it is possible, so.
Be back tomorrow!I am in the top 90% of scumhunters onsite!-
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insanity018 Mafia Scum
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What is currently your read of Old Man? This post above states both town and scum possibilities.In post 1024, Lycanfire wrote:Whether he is claiming it because he has a guilty, or because he or a teammate has an odd-night rolecop I don't know, but at this point my role should be public knowledge because scum should (or will) know my role one way or another.I suggest we breathe right now and not derphammer OM.
What do you make of Old Man continuing to push for your lynch after your claim?...-
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Kison .GIFted
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That's actually a good point & makes me think the Old Man-town/Lycan-scum scenario makes less sense. They could still both be scum & gambitting.In post 1123, roflcopter wrote:so what i am saying is that if old man is a gunsmith there is likely to be ar red herring in the setup, other than the pgo. thus, a half cop that mirrors the half gunsmith is elegant and ticks the red herring box making it the kind of excellent design i would expect from my dawg korts.
I'm wondering if our best move is to let this play out and get more info over the coming days. It's what I'm leaning towards right now.
Old Man:still want you to explain to me why you thought you had such a great chance of being roleblocked that fake claiming would be a stellar move.
Maybe. It's why I asked.In post 1096, insanity018 wrote:Did you expect that eventually rofl would give a sufficient answer?-
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Lycanfire Mafia Scum
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Talk Pine, or talk Mulch.In post 1092, Firebringer wrote:Get off town before I change my mind about not lynching within the self resolving roles.
In post 1094, MagnaofIllusion wrote:So let me ask you Lycan – why did you float the idea that he himself would not have to be the RoleCop as scum when Korts has already specifically told us scum don’t have Daytalk? He’d have no way to have the information on you as scum without he himself being the role since results come AFTER night ends and PTs get closed.
You keep calling me scum and even backtrack on that. If all you want to do is call me scum, I'm questioning that in itself.In post 1110, Eddie Cane wrote:I don't know what any of this means.
I think OM is town but I'm feeling torn on whether wanting to lynch me is scummier than not wanting to lynch me. For instance, if OM is scum could he simply push me and have his teammates counter the push? After all, he already got out of the IC dilemma. There is something to be said for wanting the lynch itself, like what I noted with Kison. I don't view my lynch as compulsory to proceed, but I can see both scum!with OM and scum!not with OM wanting me dead regardless-it's free-and also could explain away any night kill questions.In post 1127, insanity018 wrote:What is currently your read of Old Man? This post above states both town and scum possibilities.
What do you make of Old Man continuing to push for your lynch after your claim?
Basically I'm trying to determine which narrative is the scum narrative. If OM is scum, he isn't alone. The people wanting to lynch in the claims {Eddie, Kison, Axel} are doubly suspect IMO.-
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roflcopter Jack of All Trades
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Firebringer Trail Blazer
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Prodge at work and haven’t anything new really to sayShow"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.
His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown-
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Tammy Survivor
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Eddie Cane Jack of All Trades
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So why don't you quote where I've called you scum and where I've backtracked?In post 1129, Lycanfire wrote:You keep calling me scum and even backtrack on that. If all you want to do is call me scum, I'm questioning that in itself."Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"-
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MagnaofIllusion has been killed Night 1
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Insanity
I didn’t like her yesterday and her posting today doesn’t seem to have much in the way of attempting to solve the game. Instead we get posts like 1095 which in sum total says absolutely nothing. It is the pretty much picture perfect IIoA active lurking.
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This.In post 1107, Ginngie wrote:There’s the other side of the equation that you’re left to death tunnel Lycan and since you had potential to be an IC, you’d have more “authority” over what occurs in game.
Pine can agree with me when I say that any halfway decent scum player (anyone in this lobby) would be able to use the kills to gain a free mislynch and then kill you the next night
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In post 1130, roflcopter wrote:this will probably come as a surprise to no one but i find axel's positioning around the two claims and trying to shoehorn the lynch into that pair to be the scummiest
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So? I mean you are arguing badly with statistics here. Just because there was an X-in-Y shot of one event followed by a different X-in-possibility of something happening doesn’t mean it is improbable. You are ignoring that pretty much every branch of the probability tree you are describing is “low percentage” because those percentages all add up to 100% in total.In post 1110, Eddie Cane wrote:...and then he would have a 1/13 chance of finding the town cop if he was town and a 1/11 chance if he was scum. what is nonsense here?
Mafia isn’t the same as pulling marbles from a bag without replacement.
And if you had the whole picture of what roles actually exist … maybe you could make that argument. But you can’t. Now as scum you have a better view of the scenery and can make snap predictions like this.In post 1110, Eddie Cane wrote:more like 4:11 is ridiculously scumsided and it wouldn't pass in a normal
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Actually the Gunsmith classic false clear is a Mafia Doctor. Surprised you missed this. The reason I brought this up to see your reaction is the fact that what I saw in 956 looks very much like classic scum “Hmmm, no second kill so odds are slim we have a Vig or a SK” from a Mafia Doctor to me.In post 1115, Pine wrote:=="Red herrings thrown in" doesn't necessarily mean some for each. Cop red herrings would be Godfather and Miller, but the former is rare these days and the latter would have been claimed already by practically anyone on this playerlist. The red herrings were a reference to negative utility around the Gunsmith, namely the Cop, or both, such as a PGO. I might have worded the original statement more clearly than I did, but alas I did not.
==As for a false clear, I mentioned Godfathers, but there is also the possibility of a Traitor, which some variants have been ruled does not trip a Gunsmith. (This is from memory on a heavily-interpreted role, plz don't ask me to troll through dozens of games trying to prove this. It's a thing.)
==956: As I've said, I don't trust my Eddie read. That does make me think, however, that SKs are often immune to Cops and/or Gunsmiths, depending on how results are phrased. Cops may get mafia/not mafia, SKs are sometimes ascetic, SKs have been ruled not to use guns but rather knives, etc.
==I'm not sure what I'm supposed to be looking at in 956. Number of scum is some pretty common sense setup spec, which is NAI, and the rest isn't particularly meaningful or analytical.
Oh god you aren’t scum are you Pine?In post 1120, Pine wrote:Hito was a pretty likely mislynch. My best guess is that scum thought he was softing a PR. I really can't think of any other way that killing Hito N1 isn't a tactical error.
Alternatively, Hito makes a lot of sense as a vig kill, with the possibility that scum kill was stopped.
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Can’t answer the question?In post 1129, Lycanfire wrote:In post 1094, MagnaofIllusion wrote:So let me ask you Lycan – why did you float the idea that he himself would not have to be the RoleCop as scum when Korts has already specifically told us scum don’t have Daytalk? He’d have no way to have the information on you as scum without he himself being the role since results come AFTER night ends and PTs get closed.
Tammy– When you get back to the game I want you to give me some straight talk as to why I shouldn’t be voting Lycan if you think there is any."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
Pretty much Geriatric game restricted at this point ... unless there are players I REALLY want to play with.-
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MagnaofIllusion has been killed Night 1
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Ginngie Jack of All Trades
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I don't know why I didn't think of thisIn post 1134, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Actually the Gunsmith classic false clear is a Mafia Doctor. Surprised you missed this.
I literally would have auto won my scum game if we didn't get a mislynch in earlier because I was false cleared by a gunsmithShoutout to PJ and Nahdia for making my amazing new avi :)
Following the previous dozen pages that cropped up in the last 10 hours I would like to congratulate Ginngie for being drunk with distinction. - Vi-
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Eddie Cane Jack of All Trades
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MagnaofIllusion has been killed Night 1
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I’m sorry you don’t understand statistics or apparently low level math ... so there we are I guess.In post 1137, Eddie Cane wrote:I'm sorry you don't understand mechanics Magna."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
Pretty much Geriatric game restricted at this point ... unless there are players I REALLY want to play with.-
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Ginngie Jack of All Trades
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insanity018 Mafia Scum
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What exactly do you mean by your lynch would 'explain away any night kill actions'?In post 1129, Lycanfire wrote:
I think OM is town but I'm feeling torn on whether wanting to lynch me is scummier than not wanting to lynch me. For instance, if OM is scum could he simply push me and have his teammates counter the push? After all, he already got out of the IC dilemma. There is something to be said for wanting the lynch itself, like what I noted with Kison. I don't view my lynch as compulsory to proceed, but I can see both scum!with OM and scum!not with OM wanting me dead regardless-it's free-and also could explain away any night kill questions.In post 1127, insanity018 wrote:What is currently your read of Old Man? This post above states both town and scum possibilities.
What do you make of Old Man continuing to push for your lynch after your claim?
Basically I'm trying to determine which narrative is the scum narrative. If OM is scum, he isn't alone. The people wanting to lynch in the claims {Eddie, Kison, Axel} are doubly suspect IMO.
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Magna
Is doing the exact same thing he is doing yesterday. Picking and choosing that posts that suits his point of view and ignoring anything else.
@Magna, in that post you linked as "active lurking", I literally stated that I currently don't know which claims I believe....-
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Axelrod Mafia Scum
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Pine In Your Head
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roflcopter Jack of All Trades
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Eddie Cane Jack of All Trades
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so team, are we gonna spend another month prod dodging and then scramble for s lynch a day before deadline?"Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"-
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Eddie Cane Jack of All Trades
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let me say this one more time
IF old man is scum, which I doubt, lycan is probably town.
Otherwise, Lycan is 3 times as likely to be scum as he is Cop. Additionally, the God tier dead player and the other good dead player both had him as top sr. Additionally, his slot is just fucking scummy. Normally, the odds are more like 3 times as likely to be town not factoring in reads.
VOTE: lycan
tammy I need you"Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"-
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Ginngie Jack of All Trades
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I’m never lynching an invest claim before they get 1 night.
Remember you are not infallible and be optimalShoutout to PJ and Nahdia for making my amazing new avi :)
Following the previous dozen pages that cropped up in the last 10 hours I would like to congratulate Ginngie for being drunk with distinction. - Vi-
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Eddie Cane Jack of All Trades
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I was voting him before his claim and his claim makes him scummier, delaying it a day means no partner hunting.
If we arent doing lycan, we can go from there. I'll probably end up sheeping Tammy."Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"-
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Pine In Your Head
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Your math is simply wrong. It assumes randomness instead of intentional design. Odd Gunsmith Even Cop makes sense from a design perspective, and we've seen no CC which disputes it.In post 1145, Eddie Cane wrote:let me say this one more time
IF old man is scum, which I doubt, lycan is probably town.
Otherwise, Lycan is 3 times as likely to be scum as he is Cop. Additionally, the God tier dead player and the other good dead player both had him as top sr. Additionally, his slot is just fucking scummy. Normally, the odds are more like 3 times as likely to be town not factoring in reads.
VOTE: lycan
tammy I need you"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare-
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Eddie Cane Jack of All Trades
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no it doesnt... sigh. I'm working a 14 hour day cause I work for elections ontario and its election day, but I'll write it out in detail"Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"
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