You realize, with a large enough sample size, even a meaningless 0.01% deviation from normal is statistically significant. Whereas with a small sample size, there could be say a 30% deviation from normal yet not be statistically significant. Indeed, a failure to reject the null DOES NOT MEAN that the alternative is false; it just means there is not enough data to (statistically) reject the null in favor of the alternative.
I actually do think the replace out rate may actually be statistically significant from the sample size, but I cannot verify that at the moment.
Pedit: Less than half of newbies replace out in Matrix6:
Town Newbies 38.9% 46.8%
Scum Newbies 43.5% 56.3%
Total Newbies 39.9% 48.9%
All town 31.7% 37.4%
All scum 35.5% 43.9%
All players 32.6% 38.9%
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.
His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
can we drop the numbers things completely?
Id rather us argue why something smart is scum for his predecessor actions (not replace out) and what he is doing here.
I think we will have plenty of arguments for why he is scum based on play cause he does feel scum!smart
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.
His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
In post 226, 123456789 wrote:Pedit: Less than half of newbies replace out in Matrix6:
Town Newbies 38.9% 46.8%
Scum Newbies 43.5% 56.3%
Total Newbies 39.9% 48.9%
First column is slots, second is players. We're talking players.
It also doesn't differentiate whether its a site flake or for other legitimate reasons. This is a useless discussion, and I won't participate in it any further.
In post 226, 123456789 wrote:You realize, with a large enough sample size, even a meaningless 0.01% deviation from normal is statistically significant. Whereas with a small sample size, there could be say a 30% deviation from normal yet not be statistically significant. Indeed, a failure to reject the null DOES NOT MEAN that the alternative is false; it just means there is not enough data to (statistically) reject the null in favor of the alternative.
I actually do think the replace out rate may actually be statistically significant from the sample size, but I cannot verify that at the moment.
Pedit: Less than half of newbies replace out in Matrix6:
Town Newbies 38.9% 46.8%
Scum Newbies 43.5% 56.3%
Total Newbies 39.9% 48.9%
All town 31.7% 37.4%
All scum 35.5% 43.9%
All players 32.6% 38.9%
That seems like a pretty major difference to me.
Me reading this post:
Also, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?
(You're still one of my strongest scumleans, Fire, but...)
I am suspicious of the Jumble/Smart slot now, mainly because I've played a game with Jumble, and he has kept his coll in similar situations. This time, he acted a bit differently. It makes me think he's scum. The problem is that it's just a hunch at this point, it's not that much more conclusive than the statistical analysis going on in this thread.
While there is still momentum of sorts on the smart wagon I say we hold Smart's feet to the fire (take him to L-1) and gauge his reaction.
In post 158, vulcan logician wrote:Yeah... I meant formerly fakeclaiming scum. Sorry about that. I see all that page 1 claiming bullshit as fog and diffusion. Some people might call it "too scummy to be scum." I call it "probably scum." Some people say "any mislynch is bad." I say, "If we're gonna mislynch somebody, there are worse candidates than Firebringer."
Why do you think its probably scum?
Like you pointed out the first thing you said about the possibility of a fake claim as innocent child that its unlikely to be done by scum and now it is PROBABLY SCUM.
And the whole if we mislynch me its okay cause it isn't as bad as others. What? Go into this, why are you fine with mislynching me over say mislynching NotaJumbleNumbers
Yeah, point taken on my pivot from unlikely to probably. I did a lot of thinking (and remembering my one game with you) and came to the conclusion that if any scum is ballsy enough to fakeclaim IC on page 1, it's you. Also, I said "unlikely" before you redacted your IC claim... so there are more moving parts than you let on; I didn't just change my mind for no reason.
Regardless, I've chosen to focus my attention elsewhere for now. Perhaps you are a good D2 project, Firebringer.
In post 237, vulcan logician wrote:While there is still momentum of sorts on the smart wagon I say we hold Smart's feet to the fire (take him to L-1) and gauge his reaction.
This is a bad idea.
"All people are easier to read under pressure" is a myth.
Some people are easier to read when not under pressure.
One. That having me at L-1 may be helpful in reading OTHER players, particularly those off the wagon who have a chance to end the day way earlier than it should be ended.
Two. That I would have very little confidence in my ability to get out of this as scum (and rightfully so), and therefore I'd be bussing the shit out of my partner-- and Firebringer can attest to this
In post 237, vulcan logician wrote:While there is still momentum of sorts on the smart wagon I say we hold Smart's feet to the fire (take him to L-1) and gauge his reaction.
This is a bad idea.
"All people are easier to read under pressure" is a myth.
Only a Sith deals in absolutes.
I wasn't saying anything about "all people." And as you pointed out in your other post, it's an opportunity to learn all kinds of things. Glad you're on board with the plan to take you to L-1.
Yeah, I am not feeling comfortable with this lynch right now, but at the flame time, I do. My first ever game I put pressure one a guy and he subbed out. I invited his replacement and the next day phase the cop outed him as scum. Regardly of Smart's play, if we right to lynch his predecessor, that does have to be taken into account. It is completely possible that newb scum replacing out is a move to try and lure us off the trail. This is the first place I have played that does subs, so it is new to me. Although I will say this, if we lynch Smart and he is town, I will feel really bad because he paid for his predecessors sins. With that said, I am worrisome about his reluctance to share his other reads.
In post 242, TheRampage wrote:With that said, I am worrisome about his reluctance to share his other reads.
If you'd like, I can give you 27 links indicating this is how I prefer to play town.
I don't like to share weak reads because then they are inevitably blown out of proportion as people either (a) act as though it's a serious scumread even when I specifically say it isn't or (b) ask me to explain and then discredit it because the reasons are weak.
Okay, well we still need to know what you see and think though. Personally, I hate meta because I believe scum always try to mimmick their town game to disguise themselves. So while you may do that as town, it may also be something you do as scum. See to me, mafia is a poker game. You make reads and have to understand that scum and town change their gameplay so that it is hard for the other side to snuff them out.
