Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Ankamius]

I'm not convinced

sorry

[davesaz]

You can be scum though so I'm not as concerned.
Town can win merely by refusing to go after town.

[Ankamius]

1. onthemark is a dumb check
2. it's more believable for a miller that has no presence to be alive indefinitely than a miller with no presence and an investigative role claim
3. otm is blatantly the biggest threat to you by far after mariar's lynch

[Ankamius]

like

it was discussed a while back how it was very likely that at least one investigative claim was scum

throwing mariar and matt under the bus, both of which were heavily scumread slots, is entirely reasonable

it makes this claim of yours more believable

having two scum lynches in a row makes town more likely to be confident in the conclusion that you're conftown

it's not rocket science to see why this isn't as believable as you think it is

[davesaz]

1. onthemark is a dumb check

What is this nonsense? Trying to track the only person in the game who can't be prevented from acting is the only mechanically correct move for the neighborhood's ability.

[davesaz]

To be honest though, I've tinfoiled people who were more obv. Maybe you're not scum.

[Ankamius]

then why wasn't OTM checked

[YT2980]

I’m officially townreading what was my strongest among the townleans, Dunnstral, for how they are defending davesaz. I feel only town would bother to defend his case right now, and I still stand by the case I proposed in 4677 about davesaz being town; doesn’t seem anybody discredited that, but I’d like to see someone try.

Also, I haven’t concluded a firm scumspect yet, but I’m leaning heaviest on RMOJ. Maria had already posted last day phase when I voted her. I would like to see RMOJ post something this day phase before I vote them.

Current reads in order of strength

K

a

e

d

e

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Y

T

A

n

k

a

m

i

u

s

d

a

v

e

s

a

z

D

u

n

n

s

t

r

a

l

p

u

n

r

e

a

d

e

r

a

l

c

h

e

m

i

s

t

2

1

k

o

k

i

c

h

i

w

i

l

k

y

R

M

O

J

[Ankamius]

like

go into the neighborhood and SHOW ME what went into the projectmatt check instead of the OTM check

RC is not an idiot

if OTM was the only correct check, then RC would need a damn good reason to not go for it

[Ankamius]

Ank, Ram, and alchemist need my attention too.

I appreciate that several townies have decided that rushing to martyr me is a bad idea.

A couple days to work on these reads would be nice, please and thanks.

I can't, under any circumstance, see a scum motive behind making a statement like this. This smacks of being town to me all day, because I can't ever see scum defending several players that were on their lynch wagon as being town in one post when their back is against the wall. Why would scum ever make a statement like this?

I also can't fathom why davesaz made so many townreads when he was a lynch target. What scum motive could possibly be behind his play?

it's easy:

I'm just waiting for this game to become fun for myself again at this point.
Pedit: I don't understand that vote

Well I can't get Kokichi today, I'd rather lynch Wraith than Dave, I townread dave and tchill

Why Tchi?
Why is Wraith scum?

I don't have good reasons for Wraith, I'm just joining the wagon. Tchill's claim was towny, and I haven't seen a reason to jump at them from their play

Disagree on Tchi can you read Wraith and give me your thoughts.

Finally some god dam interaction up in here.
Pedit: It's not as black and white as you're presenting it to be Math

Yes. It is.

There is no other protective or they would claim.

If another protective exists it is scum. Too much power rule.

Since there is no other town protective then it’s literally scum shot ETL or Dave did the kill.

That is it.

I don't see dave's play as scummy or the type of player to fake claim miller he's very laid back with his play and drawing a light to himself with the miller claim is very ? I don't get why he'd do that. I don't want to throw my dave tr out the window when we don't have all the facts in play and just lynching dave is the easy play

projectmatt was also heavily pushing against the davesaz-lynch-via-mechanics push by OTM

[YT2980]

Ankamius: fair case, BUT given that projectmatt has been identified to be an expert scumplayer by a couple different players, wouldn’t it also make sense if they distanced themselves from their scum partners in some way, shape or form? I mean, clearly mariar was implicated, but you think he’s going to reveal his entire scum team from his actions? I would expect an expert scum player to play differently than that, and not to implicate all their partners

[Ankamius]

imagine you have a scumteam of three players

one of which is a good scum player and is a sinking ship because of it on top of his predecessor's play
one of which is a claimed investigative and is also a sinking ship, also with general suspicion that there's an investigative that is scum due to setup
one of which has a pseudo-guilty and is a sinking ship

the second is put into a spot where they're very likely to be confscum
the first is unlikely to make it more than a couple days

now

assuming that davesaz is confirmed joining the neighborhood, then there's a choice

1. try to clear both davesaz and mariar
2. sacrifice mariar to clear davesaz

here's the issue

mariar is far more likely to be caught than davesaz due to the setup.
punreader is competent at setup spec, which was

proven

on day two by dead town.
punreader cannot be directly killed.

therefore, it's risky to try to clear mariar to the end of the game.

NOW

if

davesaz

is solo cleared

then his role by itself isn't scum-indicative by itself
the pseudo-guilty is vague enough to not be scum-indicative by itself
it's a lot easier to accept one mostly-scumread slot being cleared than two
it's a lot less weird that one 'conftown' reaches lylo than two

it makes sense if you really think about it

[Ankamius]

I think if projectmatt masterminded whatever happened in the neighborhood and is as competent as is claimed, then I think he would have predicted how clearing both mariar and davesaz would turn out

if anything, having a strong scum player be around for that makes it

MORE

likely that this happened, because it takes some thought to reach this play

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Well there IS the fact about the double miller thing usually being 2 town millers by mod meta, this was heavily discussed day 1, but then if dave is scum he's either a true miller or is fake claiming, neither make sense with the flip of the bodyswapper. Im getting more and more confused how early play fits in all this.

[Ankamius]

Well there IS the fact about the double miller thing usually being 2 town millers by mod meta, this was heavily discussed day 1, but then if dave is scum he's either a true miller or is fake claiming, neither make sense with the flip of the bodyswapper. Im getting more and more confused how early play fits in all this.

what makes fakeclaim nonsensical?

[Kaede Akamatsu]

That being said Ank, if you're scum you're in the same dilemma where you need to survive on your own until LyLo and disrupting potential correct town blocs forming is one way to do it.
OTOH, if you're town it makes sense for you to not want scum to be in a potential town bloc and wanna cover all your bases.

I think this day's gonna turn out more interesting than I thought.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Well there IS the fact about the double miller thing usually being 2 town millers by mod meta, this was heavily discussed day 1, but then if dave is scum he's either a true miller or is fake claiming, neither make sense with the flip of the bodyswapper. Im getting more and more confused how early play fits in all this.

what makes fakeclaim nonsensical?

Why come out of the gate fake claiming miller? there was no guarantee a 2nd miller would exist.

[Ankamius]

That being said Ank, if you're scum you're in the same dilemma where you need to survive on your own until LyLo and disrupting potential correct town blocs forming is one way to do it.
OTOH, if you're town it makes sense for you to not want scum to be in a potential town bloc and wanna cover all your bases.

I think this day's gonna turn out more interesting than I thought.

the time to disrupt correct town blocs was 2 or 3 days ago

not now

[Kaede Akamatsu]

That being said Ank, if you're scum you're in the same dilemma where you need to survive on your own until LyLo and disrupting potential correct town blocs forming is one way to do it.
OTOH, if you're town it makes sense for you to not want scum to be in a potential town bloc and wanna cover all your bases.

I think this day's gonna turn out more interesting than I thought.

the time to disrupt correct town blocs was 2 or 3 days ago

not now

Then what's your path to autowin?

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Assume for a moment that davesaz is town, you need to ensure we eventually lynch scum by avoiding lynching town.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Assume for a moment that davesaz is town, you need to ensure we eventually lynch scum by avoiding lynching town.

Or better yet assume that davesaz was lynched and flipped town, we would be on day 6, let's say scum shot me or something to prevent having conf town around.
And proceed from there to answer the question.

[Ankamius]

Well there IS the fact about the double miller thing usually being 2 town millers by mod meta, this was heavily discussed day 1, but then if dave is scum he's either a true miller or is fake claiming, neither make sense with the flip of the bodyswapper. Im getting more and more confused how early play fits in all this.

what makes fakeclaim nonsensical?

Why come out of the gate fake claiming miller? there was no guarantee a 2nd miller would exist.

it was probably part of a fakeclaim the scumteam were given

it's more likely true if the roles were considered finalized among the scumteam before the game began (or at least who would have what)

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Remember we are trying to find 1-2 leftover scum, the best way to do so is by looking at interactions between flipped scum and unflipped players, and unflipped players with flipped town/scum.

[Ankamius]

That being said Ank, if you're scum you're in the same dilemma where you need to survive on your own until LyLo and disrupting potential correct town blocs forming is one way to do it.
OTOH, if you're town it makes sense for you to not want scum to be in a potential town bloc and wanna cover all your bases.

I think this day's gonna turn out more interesting than I thought.

the time to disrupt correct town blocs was 2 or 3 days ago

not now

Then what's your path to autowin?

Assume for a moment that davesaz is town, you need to ensure we eventually lynch scum by avoiding lynching town.

Assume for a moment that davesaz is town, you need to ensure we eventually lynch scum by avoiding lynching town.

Or better yet assume that davesaz was lynched and flipped town, we would be on day 6, let's say scum shot me or something to prevent having conf town around.
And proceed from there to answer the question.

can you rephrase this? I don't understand what you're asking me

[Kaede Akamatsu]

I mean we have 3 flipped scum. With that much ammount of known evil, their tracks will be more visible.

Maybe we should try #ColoredVoteCounts #VCA