UNVOTE: insanity – part of my reset.
So I ran through Hito’s ISO. The pool of people who were consistently in his pool of scum are in rough tiers of
Lycan / Pine
Eddie / Insanity
By the end of the day he had Gingie as his top Town slot, thought Axel and Tammy were more likely Town but had reasons to suspect them somewhat on a Town KMD flip (Axel for general weak play that could no longer be blamed on lack of flips, Tammy for diverting from Lycan to KMD at the deadline).
So regardless of how much you think NK analysis is bunk I’m willing to put stock that probably at least 2 of the following were scum in his reads and that accuracy was a contributing factor (along with him being active and reasonable and very Town) to his death –
Lycan – Pine – Eddie - Insanity – Tammy – Axel
Now further I think that odds are pretty strong that Lycan and Axel are both the same alignment (Town or scum, if there is a third party floating around here then that muddies the waters but so far no direct signs). I say this because of how the wagons from Korts
678 to
842 looked. For about a week Lycan and Axel set pretty much in direct competition with little movement. Yet when Tammy started the KMD Town flashwagon it grew legs and exploded.
It doesn’t make any sense for Lycan and Axel to be a Scum / Town pairing (or even a Scum / 3rd Party pairing thinking as I type this) for one of them as scum to have sat for basically a week with a viable not-partner wagon in close proximity and for their scum partners to just kinda sit on their hands not trying to get the not-partner pushed to at least claiming. Now both Town? Scum don’t care which hangs and really don’t even care too much when Town KMD gets deadline flash-wagonned (although I’d think they would not necessarily cluster onto it as they could use it to make hay in further days mislynch pushes). Both Scum? They both were off each other for so long I don’t think there was any expectation that cross bussing would get any credit and the KMD wagon was a gift horse. In that case think partners are more motivated to join that mislynch wagon to make sure deadline doesn’t scum’s way.
I said yesterday I didn’t feel that Lycan’s slow wagon felt like it was on scum. Still to some degree feel that way. Which means I by default think that Axel is leaning Town even though he’s doing exactly what Hito warned against – weakly suggesting things but not having any more conviction than yesterday.
Related I think OldMan is diametrically opposed to Lycan alignment wise – a scum Lycan flip means I don’t worry about his alignment until we get much closer to a LYLO situation which I expect neither of us will be living for. If he is still alive with a Lycan flip near expected LYLO regardless of whatever narrative is floated everyone absolutely has to go back and fully assess whether the Lycan play was a bus. Based on who OldMan probably is that’s hardly a stretch but not worth worrying about short-term.
Tammy’s slot is now in my Null reads. I really haven’t liked her play since the start of today. I read her discussion about being busy and prioritizing real life but I can’t help feeling that her replace out frustration had as much to do with the difficulty in keeping up appearances as scum as opposed to not liking the suspicion. To some degree I feel that she wasn’t as much wanting to work with me to sort reads as move me off reads (Axel / Fire / Insanity) that I had and it feels bad. I’m not sloting he as scum yet but I can’t ignore the little warning signal in my gut and continue to slot her as Town.
Cooldog I would at this point policy given that he pretty much stopped playing the game mid / late Day 1 and unlike OldMan / Lycan he will likely never be sorted by the Nightgame.
I want to go back and re-read the start of today looking at everyone who tried to make sure no-one looked to hard into Hito’s reads with the NK WIFOM blanket stance and cross reference those players with Hito’s suspect pool.
"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
Pretty much Geriatric game restricted at this point ... unless there are players I REALLY want to play with.
