Micro 810: lovers mafia BTMPWTMAATSGATAPSIAWT [game over]

[Mathdino]

I'm not willing to compromise at all. Get the fuck in here and lynch Ausuka ffs.

Kinda want to lynch Math for this. Unwillingness to compromise is not sitting well with me.

Also what's my motivation here exactly?

Do you think I hardbussed Nico and am now trying to get anyone other than her lynched?

Or do you think I'm scum knowing both Ausuka and Nico are town? Because in that situation the obvious thing is to just compromise today and be like "WHELP guys clearly ausuka is scum because that lynch didn't go through yesterday"

N_M, please get online.

[Mathdino]

Oh yeah the random thing

Random lynching is against the spirit of the game, we might as well just not play

Then read my case on Ausuka.

The fact that she hasn't been hammered yet is actually a significant scumtell.

[Not_Mafia]

I'm here

[Not_Mafia]

Oh yeah the random thing

Random lynching is against the spirit of the game, we might as well just not play

Then read my case on Ausuka.

The fact that she hasn't been hammered yet is actually a significant scumtell.

It's a confbias case based on re-enforcing your random lynch, I'm not entertaining it on principle

[Mathdino]

N_M is either scum with Ausuka or confirmed town.

Tomorrow's roll won't include N_M.

[Pine]

Screw that. Compromise lynches are fundamentally non-random. The only way they can go through is if scum agree to be a part of it. Unless there's the rare situation in which all players available to compromise are town and somehow the lynch is on town.
In other words, in asking me to compromise on Nico, you're asking me to believe that the entire town is {Ausuka, N_M, Pine, Mathdino}.

No, if Nico is possible to lynch, that heavily indicates town to me.

Non-random lynches in this setup are HIGHLY likely to land on town because of that extra control scum have, given that they can just stonewall a lynch.

I want my random lynch. N_M not hammering is problematic as fuck.

What I'm ASKING is to not have the entire town lose half a point. I'd rather mislynch and give it another shot D2 than have that happen.

Your aversion to this is concerning.

Oh yeah the random thing

Random lynching is against the spirit of the game, we might as well just not play

Thank you for finding the words to contextualize my instinctive aversion to that strategy. It's...unsportsmanlike.

[Mathdino]

Doesn't matter if we lose half a point if we still win in the end. If Ausuka is town and cares about the half point loss, the correct strategic move is for her to self-hammer (to also clear N_M as town).

If she doesn't, that serves as confirmation she's scum.

[Pine]

Yes it does matter if we lose half a point. This is a series of nine games. Given that the trend will be to flatten everyone out to some average number over the course of that many iterations, half a point will matter for the long game.

Stop thinking with your RNG.

[Ausuka]

Can't you guys hammer it yourselves if you need to? I'm tired and I don't feel like weighing the strategic advantages and disadvantages of self hammering.

[Mathdino]

pine my RNG has a 70% chance of winning
given that N_M is confirmed town or scum with ausuka, that bumps it up to 80%

if we non-random lynch twice, i have about a 35% chance of winning
since nicorobin being lynchable almost certainly makes her town, that brings things down to around 20-25%

i'm comfortable sacrificing half a point for the additional 50+% chance to win the game

[Ausuka]

I will selfhammer if it means avoiding the point loss.

[Pine]

I don't agree with your assessment. It assumes that everyone follows the strategy, and everyone follows the same roll. The fact that you're the only one inclined to do so invalidates the strategy. Period.

Also Ausuka not self-hammering at EOD is absolutely a scumclaim.

Never mind, ninjaed. Please follow through if you want to retain credibility, Ausuka.

[Mathdino]

cool
and now ausuka not self-hammering is a scumclaim and thus a guaranteed win for us (just with +0.5 points only)

now that i think about it
it's possible N_M is scum trying to make the point loss happen :/

[Ausuka]

I feel that nm/redflavor are likely town. Math is a third placed position. It may be RNG Pine/nico, that's where I lean right now. Hard to tell though.

[Mathdino]

i agree with your reads but that team is inconsistent with pine trying to get me to compromise on nico

[Ausuka]

That's like the last thing he's doing? He wants a lynch in {aus, math} right?

[Mathdino]

last page he wanted me to switch over to nicorobin with him so we could actually get a lynch

[Ausuka]

Oh right.

[Ausuka]

I believe nico is scum and redflavor is the second actually.

Should I just do it?

[Mathdino]

nico/red works yeah

i'm internally flip flopping on whether to go through with this tbh

[Ausuka]

It's too late for that I think.

[Pine]

nico/red works yeah

i'm internally flip flopping on whether to go through with this tbh

I'm down for a flashwagon.

Ausuka is coming off as Town.

[Ausuka]

I feel like I'm almost guaranteed to get lylo'd if we do that :/

[Ausuka]

But like I think it's roughly optimal if you guys vote nico? So if you want we can do that.

[Pine]

FUCK IT

I'll be active to EOD

VOTE: Nico