Mini Normal 2009: Day 6

[profii]

Well that changes things

[profii]

Nexus

Just to be totally clear

Tex was an even night commuter and Arc was an odd night commuter?
?

[profii]

Assuming that is right

That makes sense as to why Wilky said he didn’t believe the initial tex claim for ~reasons~ If he knew his mate was also a commuter

So given that he pushed for that lynch makes me think that was scum hunting for a serial killer

So now I’m thinking we are in 2v1vT again and Stan tried to shoot N_M as Stan knew scum are gone. Also matches up to N_M claim there

Also matches up to Unas point that a better town bait was pretend to be 3 shot.

Idjshwhwufuckd idk idk

[profii]

Wow I actually swore during keyboard mashing . Terrible haha

[Nexus]

Nexus

Just to be totally clear

Tex was an even night commuter and Arc was an odd night commuter?
?

Yes, apologies.

[UnaBombaH]

OK, now I'm officially confused as well.

[profii]

No worries - ps check OP!

[UnaBombaH]

No worries - ps check OP!

??

[profii]

Una around to chat it through? What do you think to my theory that Stan was setting up a “if SK exists then a cross kill should happen”

But I’m reality stan SK knows it’s likely 2 scum and should kill nm given I thought it was scum you yesterday - easy mislynch target for Stan if we argued today

[profii]

No worries - ps check OP!

??

That was at nexus - the opening post (op) says even night commuter for both tex and Arc

[WeStanTalent]

I slept on this game, so sorry!

I've issued a formal apology to all my fans on Instagram, but I've wiped my Instagram so I don't think I can show you.

If I need to, I can make the balance argument and check the Billboard Normal charts for every 10 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 sk game just to show how unbalanced this would be for antitown factions. I don't have a case on why my slot is town instead of sk, but I do know every shot that I personally made was on a scumread.

I want to collab with nm before we go much further.

[WeStanTalent]

Oh, I guess you guys already figured out the no kill!

I'm still a 2-shot vig. If I had another shot I'd have shot profii last night because I can freely ruin my vig reputation when I'm on an alt!

Nm why is it Una?

[profii]

I’d like to see that balance argument

I’m not super experienced with setups and balanced so if you can put something in front of me that says you are unlikely to be a SK then it helps a lot

[UnaBombaH]

I suck at setup-spec too..
All I know is that I'd hate to ever play in a 3v1v9 as ANY faction, so that is a setup I felt free to close off.

Una around to chat it through? What do you think to my theory that Stan was setting up a “if SK exists then a cross kill should happen”

I GUESS it is still a possibility.
I'd say scum!profii would've been more likely to shoot Stan here for a multitude of reasons, but at this point of the game there's always the WIFOM-side of the coin to muddy it all up..
I'd say scum!profii might just no-kill here for the WIFOM too, and to keep N_M around "for whatever reason" (=scumreads Una over profii).

[profii]

If I’m scum in a 3 man team I’m never thinking Stan is a SK - I’d remove the inno and let you think it’s a SK

I always think if someone suggests something weird like that, it’s probably something they did so I am now wondering if you just plain old no killed Haha

[UnaBombaH]

I openly admit that I would always kill N_M as the only remaining scum in this situation.

The end result here would be the same as no-killing, so yea, "my preferred actions" do not outright contradict what happened here.

I think not killing as the only scum here is far from optimal.
You'd want this to be a LyLo for the mislynch to be easier, not to stall this into a LyLo.

..aaand this is also why I thought scum logically tried to kill N_M or Stan -> there is a protection there somewhere -> N_M likely has a BP.

[UnaBombaH]

If I’m scum in a 3 man team I’m never thinking Stan is a SK - I’d remove the inno and let you think it’s a SK

This suggests that you would pick N_M as your NK in this scenario as well.

I'm sinking in wine when I try to untangle this mess in my brain, but I'm stuck trying to solve whether scum!profii should admit that!
Like, theoretical scum!profii

SHOULD

(I guess?) say they 100% always kill Stan in this scenario because N_M already hinted they would vote Una in LyLo D4..
But I guess it's just WIFOM all the way in the end anyway..

[UnaBombaH]

I actually had to go and ISO some posts from you profii that have been bugging me this dayphase..

Can you try and convey what made you write these?

my best guess here is we have removed all scum and Stan is trying “i really am a 2 shot vig” gambit

Like in here, just say what was your thought process here.
You used the words "my best guess", which should mean that it really was the likeliest scenario in your mind at that point.

So I am thinking that Stan is BP
I know N_M is a mason

I am believing Stan if she comes in with a BP claim

Which makes me pretty much ready to vote you Una

But then what REALLY changed your mind during these ten posts? You went from

"best guess" = SK!Stan

to

"ready to vote Una"

in a rather short time.
If you'd argue it was the interaction we had in the meantime, you'd basically suggest that I made you give up SK!reading Stan in favor of scumreading me..?

Let’s say there is 1 baddie left and we mislynch, they NK and tomorrow becomes 1v1 - is that a draw?

And then there was this. And this REALLY bugs me.
I want to hear your reasoning for asking this.

[profii]

my knee jerk reaction was that with the no kill, stan was trying something fishy as a SK to keep the 2 shot vig thing going, as in, if I was SK, I'd probably take the bet that there is no more scum left.

then I was thinking that if this was a SK gambit, it doesn't really work, because if we mislynch today, sure SK can shoot tonight, but it's 1v1. I don't know whos win con that actually meets. (assuming it was SK v T) -I assumed a draw, therefore, this is an ineffective SK play, therefore Stan probably not a SK, otherwise you'd kill and say it was scum.

Then you mentioned the BP role, so I didn't think that N_M would claim uni backup, so I figured if Stan was a likely vig and N_M is a mason, that leaves you as the scum player.

Following N_M claiming Commuter, that means the last player tried to remove the Inno, which is the logical thing to do for a SK or a scum so I'm pretty much stuck in the middle of that WIFOM again now.

[UnaBombaH]

You want to hear what I saw when I read #2410?

Let’s say there is 1 baddie left and we mislynch, they NK and tomorrow becomes 1v1 - is that a draw?

Town never gets a draw you see - 1v1 is always a scumwin.
So I thought you maybe slipped that perspective in..?

[profii]

I didn't know that

[UnaBombaH]

[profii]

so actually that makes the Stan SK more likely....

because, no kill = "I'm a 2 shot vig honest" from stan today

then, a mislynch today, e.g. me and you fighting each other = N_M certainly dies

tomorrow stan vs {me/you} = Stan!SK win


so that is actually quite a good SK play... the weird thing is N_M's Commuter claim makes it weird because that's also the obvious night kill.

[UnaBombaH]

I think it doesn't make sense who (if anyone) would've no-killed.
I think it was quite a no-brainer that N_M should be the kill to any scum - I only thought YOU might choose to kill Stan over him for a more favorable LyLo..

I think it's fair to say Stan or you TRIED to kill N_M last night, and he just lucked out with the commuting and the such!

[UnaBombaH]

That is also why I said no-killing would've been sub-optimal to scum!anyone.
I mean, even theoretical SK!Stan ought to kill N_M here, because we would've likely crossvoted at the start of the day anyway.
scum!profii shoots Stan and crossvotes with me at the start of day (and hopes N_M keeps to his stance on scum!Una)..