Mini Normal 2016 | Otters vs. Penguins | Endgame

[Nosferatu]

just for that i hope panama wins

[wavemode]

can someone explain to me how nos is a better lynch than teacher or tommy at present

even if we lynch on wagon, in what universe is nos scummier than tommy egan this game

[Tchill13]

VOTE: teacher

Yeah I don't think nos is scum atm. I think there's a good chance teacher is.

[ByronVilla]

Alright this day is shaping up to be teacher vs nosferatu, I'm gonna read through their posts and see what kind of vibes I get. I'll post my thoughts by the end of the day at the latest.

Sidenote:

just for that i hope panama wins

If England loses then I'm blaming you for jinxing it!

[teacher]

6-1?! And I am working on the remainder of the readslist.

[teacher]

Continued from 1041, with the same caveats and assumptions.

Nulls continued

• TChill
  : A recent point that I didn’t really like is that he completely ignored Tommy’s 1040 question when posting 1052, almost like that could avoid having to explain. I also didn’t like his Garmr “scum tingles” answer because it contradicts what he said EoD1 in 845. But I put him here last “night” primarily because he is sorting other players and I think I can understand his posts, but still didnt like buddying and defensiveness I saw D1, as in 465 (BBT buddy, see also contradiction on Nos play) and 721 (or just his reads on Wave compared to Wave’s reads of him.

Scumleans

• Lefty/Not Maf
  : This was the furthest change from any of my early reads, and the scummiest spot I can find off-wagon. It is also being driven by my assumption that scum has multiple active misdirectors. With that, I found 580 and similar complete midday reversals without reasoning to be the exact sort of flexibility scum want long-term without being obvious about it since they are both strong reads.

Come back tonight for the final installment, as I explain Tommy Egan, Gus/Aristo, and Performer, as well as answer the questions that have come up since yesterday morning.

[ByronVilla]

Ok, let's get to it. I'm gonna highlight a few posts that outline my view. I'm feeling lazy so I might end up doing Nos in another post depending on how I feel.

Teacher:

213 is a weirdly null post. Like, I agree with everything on here, but this is a good post to revisit if teacher turns scum. It's likely if teacher is scum, that there is one scum in Egan/GEO/Nos. Whilst scum are inherently liars, they have to be truthful somewhere, and my gut says that it's here. Also the BBT vs Byron TvT read is off for me. It's a very late time to jump onto it, and I feel it's just echoing what others had already said beforehand.

He was in a very interesting position with Invis. We talk about Nos being in a weird position with the wagon, but teacher's impression on the wagon is an interesting development too. 491 is null, talks about them having issues with Invis, but knowing that town!Invis plays just like this so it's null, maybe even slightly town lean?
500 showed them starting to lean scum on Invis, saying they could hammer the wagon, however the wagon was only 4 people at the time? I don't like this positioning, as it shows they only plan on hammering the wagon, and teacher didn't even do that. This can easily mess with VCA, and I think it's important to class teacher as on the wagon in VCA if they had intent to hammer.

That's what's put me off about teacher. Mainly null, but a slight tinge of scum. Feels super hard to comment on, and I don't know if that's what they've gone for? I'll do Nos later and from what I've heard people have had the same kind of issues with Nos so we'll see what my take on him is.

[ByronVilla]

I should note I do like Teacher's D2 play, it's been a lot better so far.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

This is baffling to me. Scum wants to be able to push a mislynch later, which they can do by nulling a spot that they have already buddied. I just don’t buy this explanation regardless of your alignment.

I'm not sure what baffles you? Which part of my explanation did you not understand? I don't think scum!Performer ever tries to push my lynch - I think he town reads me and then kills me. That was my whole point. He has no reason to pretend not to have a read on me as scum.

And I cant believe I have to explain this to you, since I learned it from this site, but defensiveness is scummy because townies know mislynches will happen and are more concerned with solving the game. Performer's progression on Byron (towning him more over the course of D1) seems fake because Byron went from active and town (through the 200s) to lurking (200-500) (at least until the EoD voteswitch). I dont see how in the 500s Performer could say his play had gotten better over the course. As for scum motivation, buddying? blending in? Being seen to be solvey?

Wrong - defensiveness is not scummy. It's a playstyle thing. Some people are defensive regardless of alignment, some people are not defensive regardless of alignment and SOMETIMES in the right context defensiveness is scummy. But to make a blanket statement/read like that is flat out wrong.

I mean, Performer explained why his read on Byron changed. Is there something you don't like about it in particular rather than just throwing out these blanket statements? When you're explaining scum motivation you're using blanket statements again - are you saying everytime someone town reads someone else they're buddying them? Why would Performer be 'buddying' BV?

er, that i townlean on someone does not mean they are definitely town...

This is a bad, bad post.

I was skimming back through teacher's ISO, he voted bbt, gustavo, said I'm scummy. wave said teacher is scummy and said the other folks (other than byron) - lefty & nos, were also his tr. So I'm starting to think teacher is the way to vote. What's the vc right now though?

Walk me through how this leads to a teacher scum read?

The issue is I still have you at null, which is not that surprising because you have been pushing for my tr deaths. First asking people to get on lefty, later voting gustavo slot, , saying gustavo slot is still scummy on d2, and now voting byron.
Also, I completely expected you to die on n1 but you are alive, so I have been growing paranoid as to why you're alive. When we played in a mini normal a couple years ago, you died immediately on n1, and we were both town. So, I am going to lose my mind .

@TChill I think you, nos, lefty, byron, and tommy (slight tr) were on my tr side. I moved garm to null because of his push on nos, which has been interesting to say the least.

Lefty was super early and yeah, that's looking like it was a bad read. Lefty is now one of my strongest town reads. I'm not sure how you're town reading the Gus slot, that could very easily be scum.

Walk me through your Byron, Nos and Tommy town reads?

I can understand you would paranoid about me, and I would say this as either alignment, but the fact that nobody died means a number of things could have happened. Most notably, and most likely, scum tried to kill a widely read town player and town tried to protect a widely read town player. This shouldn't taint your read on me in anyway.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

@all:I asked about Tommy because he's the one who originally pushed Nos, so I'd really like to consider him, Garmr & Nos together right now. I got the impression the previous that many of you were townreading Tommy. Why?

I don't know what you're trying to say here? Are you saying these 3 are all scum together? If not, what are your reads on each of them?

901 gives me a pretty good townread on teacher.

bbt is reading a bit off. why are we trying to analyze a d1 wagon on a townflip? we have basically no info and the wagon was only at half until like, hours before the hammer, and it seemed everyone agreed it was destined to happen. i don't see any way we can glean information from it. and it feels like you're analyzing the wagon as a whole and making your predetermined reads fit rather than actually analyzing it or the play and timing of those on it.

I'm sorry, what? Why would you NOT analyze a D1 wagon; it's pretty standard. Regardless of flips, wagons hold a lot of information. That looks like a bad attempt to discredit my scum hunting.

Give me examples of me 'analyzing wagon to make predetermined reads fit' because without anything to back that up you're just throwing out random statements which make it impossible for me to defend myself against. I have also discussed the timing and play of those around the wagon so that statement is flat out false. Have you seriously still not read the game?

Show me where i'm coasting scum. I said earlyish in d1 that it started at a bad time for me, came in for my catch up on the day i'd set for it then was active until day end. Being busy in real life does not equal scum.

Couple of things; how do you show somebody they're 'coasting scum?' Also, I don't recall you ever having an active period in this game. You've kind of always been on the periphery which makes it very difficult to read you and makes it more likely that you're scum.

Easy push? At the time of my vote the only other person with a public scum read on Nos in the game was Garmr. What is there to re-evaluate apart from wagon composition. There was no night kill and we mislynched town my scum reads are still the same at the moment.

Yeah, easy push. If Nos is town, he is one of the easiest people in this game to try and push a wagon on from scum's perspective - he has shown no intentions of pushing people, he doesn't seem to be trying to sort/form reads, he isn't one of the most active/louder players. It's a very easy push for scum to make and this is shown by the fact that you were 'pushing Nos' D1 and it created like 0 waves.

Look at the difference between your push on Nos and Garmr's - your push looks like scum looking for an easy lynch. Garmr's push looks like town trying to lynch scum. There is a major difference in how both pushes have been carried out.

These two pushes cause a conflicting read on Nos for me and I'm not really sure what to do about it.

Yeah Scum!Tommy started pushing Scum!Nos d1 just as Nos started getting a pretty universal townread. Bussing my partner was absolutely the best option at that point

Since when was Nos universally town read? I'll wait for this one, should be good. Your push on Nos was so strong D1 that I can't even remember you doing it.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

VOTE: Teacher

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I'm also down for lynching Tommy and Aristo if anyone fancies either of those.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

GEO, could I get some reads from you please? Scum reads would be preferable with reasons.

[teacher]

Maybe its just me, but this weekend felt far less active than last weekend. I was travelling both weekends (U.S. Open Golf tournament, then in-laws house and cooking for 48 hours), but it was a lot easier for me to scan on my phone. Not sure what to make of that difference, but am certainly thinking about it. With that out of the way, its time to complete my readslist from 1041 and 1055 (that’s kind of my point….).

Scumleans, continued…

• Lefty/Not Maf
  
  
• Tommy Egan
  : Hardlurker even into D2, with more than 50% of his limited ISO coming after multiple spots started suspecting him (e.g., 524 676). Has claimed RL issues, but hasn’t changed style. 684 and 685 felt disingenuous to me – I doubt he had time to quote four pages and lose them during the 15 mins between the posts; I think he wanted to provide play in a style people had previously TR’ed. I also didn’t like the Nos push while leaving himself open to join either wagon; based on how he has played it after, I could see this being an effort to build towncred without catching suspicion.
  
• Gus/Aristo
  : I discussed the early play ad nauseam day one. The later play seemed shifty too, with a “sigh” vote to break his stubborn deathtunnel and reversing his reads on several slots (such as BBT) for scant reasons (see 559 to 668). That said, I was going to move off the slot if I had gotten to a desktop during EoD1 because the sheer volume of posts seemed worth keeping alive. Aristo’s apparently reading up, but hasn’t played enough to change my read.
  
• Performer
  : This was my preferred lynch coming into D2, in part due to a scum read, in part to find out about the composition of their wagon D1. But he has been far more active since daybreak, with 33% of his iso coming while the board has mostly been quiet. TBH, I really want to analyze those posts before I try to push a case, so I will just say it was based on lurking, voteparking, and odd buddying without links.

[teacher]

VOTE: Aristo][/vote]. Part read above, part pressure now.

[teacher]

EBWOP.

VOTE: Aristo. Part read above, part pressure now.

[Tchill13]

first of all you ppl sound like you have cool lives, second of all. i've got large town, scum and null groups. when i go about sorting one something happens that changes that. such as my garmr gut scum feel. that came and went. Nos was the same. Teacher i've been eyeing as scum for a bit.

There's something fishy about nos and garmr i can't quite put my finger on.

I still feel that BBT, Lefty and Byron are town. strongly.

what has gosrir done exactly? Also thoughts on performer as mislynch bait opposed to being scum.

[Aristophanes]

Aristo’s apparently reading up, but hasn’t played enough to change my read.

I worked all weekend and have yet to do this tbh...

Vote is legit bit won't make me go any faster, just fyi

[Garmr]

can someone explain to me how nos is a better lynch than teacher or tommy at present

even if we lynch on wagon, in what universe is nos scummier than tommy egan this game

This one.

[Tchill13]

if i change my read of lefty it'll solely be because of NM's play style. FYI I'm town locking NM for better or worse.

[Tchill13]

haven't had great history with thta player and im not gonna PL him every time.

[Garmr]

Find it kinda off when the nos wagon dies and tchill jumps off onto teacher then says how weird it the situation with nos and I is.

Lets all be honest here

The nos wagon lost steam with out the main points being shut down for a mediocre at best wagon.

Teacher post have been kinda bland null. Because lets be honest the people that are scum reading him are going his to null. Literally search teacher and see how many times the word null pops up. I honestly don't mind lynching null reads but when a null wagon shuts down one with actual legitimate reasoning behind it that's suss.

Also no one who town reads nosf can actually put any real town motivation behind his actions. I'm going to start calling out people who give worthless town nos reads with no reasoning.

[Tchill13]

i agree with that post. kinda weird that you're gonna call out ppl for TR'ing him after you just said his wagon had no weight to it lol. like i agree with that part but why call out ppl TRing him?

[Garmr]

i agree with that post. kinda weird that you're gonna call out ppl for TR'ing him after you just said his wagon had no weight to it lol. like i agree with that part but why call out ppl TRing him?

Never said nos's wagon didn't have no weight I said 1 point wasn't that strong as I thought, I had like 4 other points. I'm talking about people town reading nos btw not teacher

I hate to say it but this points kinda weaker than I originally thought.

So to make it clear
Teacher=mediocre at best wagon
Nos=Actual decent points made against him.

[Garmr]

i agree with that post. kinda weird that you're gonna call out ppl for TR'ing him after you just said his wagon had no weight to it lol. like i agree with that part but why call out ppl TRing him?

Oh and why call out people townreading nos? Because I don't think anyway one has actually given a legit reason to town read him and I don't want scum to slip away with this seagull mentality everyone seems to have.