Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Alchemist21]

okay so funny story guys

i dreamt about this game, and, like, i dreamt that we lynched dave and he flipped scum, and we won

but, when i woke up, i knew it was bullshit, because we already lynched dave... and he was town

so fuck

I’m glad I’m not the only one who had dreams about games.

[Alchemist21]

UNVOTE: Kokichi Oma

Why?

[Ankamius]

Because it's l-1 and the day isn't ready to be over yet

[Alchemist21]

Fair enough

[Kokichi Oma]

gut says we go here

VOTE: kokichi oma

Lol

[Kokichi Oma]

VOTE: kokichi

You can hammer me. This game is boring. Sorry. I have nothing left to contribute. I literally screamed for you guys to lynch Maria say 2 because of meta, but no one listened. So idc anymore

[Kokichi Oma]

Day*

[Ankamius]

yay the ate gambit

[YT2980]

update: double the scum cases coming tomorrow — both wilky and kokichi, so don’t hammer until then. today has been outstandingly busy, so apologies for the delay.

[Kokichi Oma]

yay the ate gambit

Then hammer me? Like I said, I don't care.

[Dunnstral]

So at this point I'm willing to call all of Alchemist21, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, and wilky confirmed town on one merit in of itself:
There's too many vanilla claims.

We've had two VTs flip thusfar in the game, and now we have a total of four more.

While three are guaranteed to be truthful (thus, giving us five VTs), I would not imagine we'd have six VTs in this game.

This is particularly true if you trust wilky to be town. If wilky is town, then the last pun has a role causing wilky's repeated failures, one which they would never openly claim. (And thus, they claim VT instead.)

Of course, this does not narrow things down much as REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE was already conftown, Alchemist21 should be conftown tomorrow, and wilky is off the lynch table for today.

If I had to select a lynch-then-hide right now (i.e. select top two suspects), it would be lynch Kokichi Oma, hide behind YT2980 (Dunnstral is tempting, but he is soft-cleared via Maria's role; while this does not remove him from the lynch pool altogether as he is not conftown, it makes him a less appealing target), but I still need to put the time into reading and gamesolving.

Is 6 vt really abnormal in a large game?

[Punreader]

What's the point of telling who you would hide behind, scum would just kill them.

Telling who I hide behind has no downsides and a bunch of upsides.
We are on evens in terms of numbers; my death during the night would place us at odds.
While I am widely townread, I am not conftown; my death removes any lingering suspicion/paranoia on my slot.
I am deliberately hiding behind players that are suspects, so if the pun shoot who I hide behind, then they are narrowing the lynch pool; this is a good thing.

If the pun decide not to shoot my target (or

can't

, because I'm hiding behind pun), then it still leaves me available to solve the game on future days, while effectively immortal. Critically, this is objectively not good for them, as I have raised key points of evidence which has all-but outright cleared players the pun were hoping to mislynch.

Thus, regardless of whether they shoot my target or not, the town always gains something from it.

[Punreader]

Is 6 vt really abnormal in a large game?

Not inherently so, but in this game it is more than I would anticipate for multiple reasons. Especially since if you call a power role claim pun, what you are effectively saying is that the town doesn't have that power, leaving the town

even weaker

than it already is.

In other words, 6 VTs would

not only

be a lower amount of power,

but also

mean one of our claimed powers isn't town, reducing our strength even further than it already would be.

Thus, why it is a reasonable assumption the last pun is in one of the VT claims.

[YT2980]

Here’s wilky; Kokichi upcoming.

Spoiler: the case that wilky is scum

• credibility of counterclaimed miller role modifier is limited by davesaz’s townflip. i say this because ultimately the idea could have floated into wilky’s head—if scum—to counterclaim this to try and force a mislynch on dave, while also clearing himself of any potential liability to a cop result from someone else. i find this plausible
  because
  he eventually claimed slow cop himself; a miller modifier added to a cop role is just weird for me when trying to interpret the significance of such. but, this would be a valiant scum gambit from wilky if i’ve ever seen one, in the case that he is scum.
  
  
  
• 192: wilky states thinking that either of the milers being scum is far-fetched, but decides to retract his own logic in voting dave last day phase in 5253, IN SPITE OF
  still
  thinking dave is town, as this post already suggests. and if scum, he also tries to line up another lynch in 5253, by saying ‘once davesaz flips town we lynch dunnstral!’ now, my thoughts on this is he
  might
  have been thinking ‘let’s go ahead and capitalize on this mislynch, then try and encourage another possible mislynch tomorrow.’ he’s also notably going the path of least resistance—with dave yesterday, and kokichi now (in spite of seemingly asserting that dunnstral should be the lynch back-to-back days). which may be attributed to a thought process of ‘all is well and good as long as i’m alive’, in wilky’s book (???). would fit a script of survival tactics to the tee.
  
  
• 4273: wilky says a maria scum flip would heavily imply dunn as town, but has voted dunn after maria’s scum flip, and did so before davesaz was lynched in 5183. this progression—in particular—reads as having a possible scum incentive to me personally. voting dunn the day after you say he’s very heavily implicated as town following a certain player’s scumflip that actually happened to be scum is a very strange progression for a potential townplayer to maneuver through. but, it’s
  especially
  weird when you do this on the day phase directly after this is said.

and that’s that, not quite strong enough to debilitate any town stance on him, but it is strong enough to assert that he is not one of the players that can be considered decisively town at this stage in the game—at least according to my view. but, admittedly in the town case i made for him, occam’s razor is a tough concept to defeat, and so it is easier to assume he is town.

[YT2980]

Spoiler: the case that kokichi is scum

• 1523: voting somebody because two people told you to do seems to me to be inherently scummy, because
  they
  would take the blame, and not you, shall this person be lynched. An easy way excuse for scum to park on a vote wagon.
  
  
  
• 1528: asking about a third party is strange, when our role PM’s explicitly state to eliminate all members who are sided with the institute, which presumably would then be the ONLY scum faction. if you read your role pm, why are you asking this?
  
  
  
• 1536: there would be nothing better for scum than to get a conftown from a conftown player. :-/
  
  
• 1558: AGAIN, following Kaede, so Kaede takes the blame if all goes wrong. I remember a few other times off memory that kokichi did this, and it makes me cringe in the case that this is not coming from scum.
  
  
• 4712: didn’t join the maria lynch wagon until it was inevitable (actually didn’t try and vote her until after she was lynched, oddly enough).
  
  
• 5329: vote on dave last day phase seems like it could be an attempt to try to line up lynches, similarly to what wilky did last day phase. expresses desire for wilky to be gone after dave—which seems like a very easy mislynch route if kokichi is scum and both are town.

I’m not quite ready to hammer just yet, but i favor a kokichi lynch. there’s a few more things i’d like to address first.

intent to hammer, however

[YT2980]

Questions

:
@Kokichi, who at this point is conftown in your book?
@alchemist, can you put out a reads list? if you are town, i’m thinking you are on scums nk list between having a power role and possibly being conftown next day phase, so this would be great!
@dunnstral, at this point, who do you think is scum?

[YT2980]

Questions

:
@Kokichi, who at this point is conftown in your book?

this is, of course asked, in case you are town. if you are scum, feel free to dodge the question.

[Alchemist21]

Questions

:
@Kokichi, who at this point is conftown in your book?
@alchemist, can you put out a reads list? if you are town, i’m thinking you are on scums nk list between having a power role and possibly being conftown next day phase, so this would be great!
@dunnstral, at this point, who do you think is scum?

Still think Kokichi’s scum.

If it’s not Kokichi I’d look at Pun or Ank.

Pun’s role remains really weird, and a fairly convenient one if scum. Actually, I have an idea, but I’ll need to know a couple things from others.

The whole game my main reason for Townreading Ank has been early interactions with me, and lately it’s been bugging my paranoia that she’s been off everyone’s radar so much that it became a joke to say she’s last scum.

@Wilky, If your action is stopped on the First Night you try to Cop someone, are you immediately notified or do you not know about it until you investigate on the second Night?

@RealMen, If you get killed during the Night, would your quest still go through and be announced in the next Day Phase?

[Ankamius]

The whole game my main reason for Townreading Ank has been early interactions with me, and lately it’s been bugging my paranoia that she’s been off everyone’s radar so much that it became a joke to say she’s last scum.

Kaede had issues with some of the things I did but never really engaged me on them when I offered to explain them

so idk

[Ankamius]

but the reason nobody's really been having me on their radar is because nobody's really been caring enough to have reads to be paranoid about

I don't think anybody's especially townreading me except YT at this point? Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Pun?

[Ankamius]

regarding Pun, I'll need to see that analysis they're promising in order to have them resorted for the day.

I'm looking for something very specific that would confscum them to me.

[Ankamius]

Anyways

I think this game is very close to solved

I just need... I believe two more locktown reads (I currently have two) and I'll be able to PoE out the last scum.

Hindsight is giving me a lot of insight into how scum have been playing a lot of the game. I honestly might be able to pick the last scum out just from reading through the first and part of the second day, but I'm not confident enough in that yet.

I would suggest being very wary about mechanic townreads, though.

[Ankamius]

I might need help to iron the PoE reads out, it's legitimately disturbing me that four of them are anywhere between light/moderate and moderate/strong scumreads. Only one isn't, and that's a near dead null read

[Ankamius]

Although I guess on second thought, the null read wouldn't really make sense as scum with how I'm seeing the way the game played out? Not having any traceable scum trajectory with or without the other flipped scum is looking like a pretty strong towntell right now.

[Kokichi Oma]

@Kokichi, who at this point is conftown in your book?

No one.