Open 729 - Cul de Sac!

[Awoo]

Like im sorry you have to go through this its never been this bad before I ususally have some cohereance but this game is in a special state like I said. Null-town is the new null.

[UglyDuck]

there is literally (actually literally) no reason for town to self hammer in VT games.
so Awoo is skum.
best case scenario they knew they were only putting themselves at L-1 hoping for twilight convo.. in which case they are only *most likely* still skum.

VOTE: Awoo

[BuJaber]

there is literally (actually literally) no reason for town to self hammer in VT games.
so Awoo is skum.
best case scenario they knew they were only putting themselves at L-1 hoping for twilight convo.. in which case they are only *most likely* still skum.

VOTE: Awoo

What the f was your vote unvote weak ass backing out of it before?

Sajj/awoo you better kill me before lylo. No way I am letting self voters live until end game. Honestly I am starting to think policy lynching is the way to go in this game.

We policy lynch dino if he doesn't get killed.
We policy lynch the self voters.
We policy lynch wavemode for claiming scum in rvs.
We policy lynch lurking.

Problem is we have to prioritize the policies because those are more lynches than we have.

For the record I am not a player that townreads emotion very often. I tend to regard it with heavy skepticism. Whether that's a strength or a weakness in my game I don't really know. But basically this is why I can never fully townread sajj/awoo/lavos/tora. You'll have to just hope I get to 80% townread on you and that'll have to do.

I am happy with duck as a lynch unless his explanation is very convincing.
I won't join the awoo wagon but honestly I don't have a strong reason to try and stop it. I have my own list of good reasons to suspect awoo, it's just that I've concluded they are better left alive today. All I can do is offer alternatives I think are better.

And with it being less than 2 days to deadline it looks like it'll end up being between awoo/duck unless we consider no lynch.

That said, I'm not sure I'm convinced that both lavos and tora are town so it kinda looks like scum derailing those wagons. But hopefully I'm wrong there.

[BuJaber]

Actually wifom wise what happened today gurantees 1 scum between lavos/tora.
If both are town: it means they both managed to convince majority town to reconsider when they both replaced a suspected lurker slot. Given the fact that this game is mountainous and town has clearly been having a lot of disagreement all game this is rather unlikely. Towns are rarely that in-sync. Also why wouldn't the scumteam try harder to get them lynched? 1 of them flipping town could easily lead us to lynch the other.

If both are scum: two lurker spots that replaced out managing to convince every member of town that they shouldn't be lynched today when both slots were wagons on day 1 AND day 2?

1 scum: town not agreeing which one is scummier, so we begin to look elsewhere. While at the same time the scumteam benefits from keeping both slots alive. This is because if the town slot between them dies and flips green it only makes the other more likely to get lynched. Also if the scumteam try to get a quickhammer going on the town slot among them it will look suspicous. So they might be amomg the first few votes of the wagon or they'd be pushing for neither wagon. Being on the tail end of a counterwagon that gets hammered is practically suicide for scum. And scum are in control in this game so far they have no motiviation to perform high risk gambits.

As I write this it occurs to me that maybe awoo's self vote while definitely idiotic as town (no offence), it doesn't really gain anything as scum. Sure there's the wifom element... but also, of all the players in this game awoo was the no.1 contender for the "too scummy to be scum" award and that was BEFORE he self voted. It's just beating a dead horse at that point. And it's near deadline. If he wants to quickhammer before we figure out his partner.. I don't know how valuable this last day or two would have been for us. It really makes little difference if he hammers himself or not.

Also scum who want to live would be faking the whole "oh this town sucks I don't know how we'll do better I'll just die and hopefully you guys can figure it out". Since they have to fake it they won't just suddenly start caring or changing their mind. Not unless they see another wagon building. But his unvote and motivation came a little earlier than that. His emotional ups and downs are much harder to fake as scum. As scum the whole thing would be an emotional gambit. He is (in my opinion) more likely to keep doing it until he sees major support for not lynching him. If he sees the gambit working he might stop and change the tactic. But he kinda stopped before that happened. And I think when someone is faking they'd be too methodical to be able to flexibly change their tactic on the fly like that.

I'm not saying we should give awoo townbloc status, but I really am beginning to doubt that it came from scum. And I hope for his sake he doesn't selfhammer as town again. (Or put himself at L-1 if this is the case).

I mean I'm playing assuming it ain't over yet. If it is then gg hope awoo is scum.

[BuJaber]

Okay duck please help me townread you. You honestly expect us to read that vote unvote and intent to hammer as coming from town? Even your "regret" took 3 minutes.

Because I am very close to voting for lavos. I think that has a good chance of hitting scum and so it really makes me pretty damn confident that either your or him is scum and those are the only 2 people I'll hammer/vote for today.

I shall try to login as often as possible for a few minutes to check on the status of the game and adjust my voting accordingly between lavos/duck.

[BuJaber]

Just under 32 hours until deadline.

[Scioness Sajj]

I wanted to check the flip :/
What are you doing

[Toranaga]

bujaber I'm sorry to say but if you're not townreading me after my gameday you can't really mafia, can you?

it's not exactly hard to parse me out this game.

[Lavos]

gonna sheep math on uglyduck, presumably they have meta experience if he's calling UD 100% town so

Jumps on seal wagon, moves to uglyduck really quick, and then totally casts aside unrealseal as a wagon despite US being his #1 scumread earlier apparently. Like I can understand town jumping on the UD wagon if they want info from it or whatever, that's ok, but what I don't understand is how he's suddenly making this dichotomy between mutant or uglyduck when neither of them were in his top 3 scumreads earlier. to me this seems like they are partners and this is an abandoned bus,

On my phone rn but lavos's rhetoric around duck and flip-flopping of opinion is a scumclaim, frankly, if duck flips scum

I was talking about an Awoo/UnrealSeal team there, not an Awoo/UglyDuck team.

[Lavos]

there is literally (actually literally) no reason for town to self hammer in VT games.
so Awoo is skum.

what

[Lavos]

Most of me feels like this is just wifom coming from awoo? and I hope most of me is correct.

[Lavos]

but like idk i lost track of this game for the most part because for me at least there are a lot of people around the same level of scumminess.

A50 slot is town, wave slot is town, buj slot probtown, Mylo probtown

[BuJaber]

I wanted to check the flip :/
What are you doing

What? I wrote walls but I didn't change my vote. I did not affect the wagons.

bujaber I'm sorry to say but if you're not townreading me after my gameday you can't really mafia, can you?

it's not exactly hard to parse me out this game.

Isn't that putting a limit on how good you think you can be as scum?

Take the compliment.

Also that just means lavos is scum. Your faith in him is fascinating.

Pedit - lavos: isn't that what duck is saying also? Why did you 'what' him?

[Toranaga]

I wanted to check the flip :/
What are you doing

What? I wrote walls but I didn't change my vote. I did not affect the wagons.

bujaber I'm sorry to say but if you're not townreading me after my gameday you can't really mafia, can you?

it's not exactly hard to parse me out this game.

Isn't that putting a limit on how good you think you can be as scum?

Take the compliment.

Also that just means lavos is scum. Your faith in him is fascinating.

Pedit - lavos: isn't that what duck is saying also? Why did you 'what' him?

I can be good scum, but I wouldn't pointlessly read half the thread and flip flop on players and put and remove L-1s and all of that as scum. it's not much about limitations to my scumgame (that I know I have anyway), but rather making such an effort just to appear minorly towny when I can take safer stances and ultimately not care who is lynched.

I'm villagerier than everyone combined this gameday.

and IDK how me = town equates to lavos = scum. this is a work of your brain only and I don't see how that's necessarily the case.

[Lavos]

no uglyduck is saying that only scum would selfvote which is extremely questionable. i just still feel like awoo's position is like too confusing to be town if that makes sense??

[HeWhoSwims]

VC7

Toranaga (1) (L-5):

BuJaber

Lavos (1) (L-5):

mutantdevle

UglyDuck (4) (L-2):

wavemode, Awoo, UnrealSeal, Toranaga

Almost50 (1) (L-5):

Scioness Sajj

Awoo (4) (L-2):

Almost50, Myloninja13, Lavos, UglyDuck

Not voting:

Day 2 will end in (expired on 2018-07-09 09:20:59)

UglyDuck and Awoo are both at L-2

[Toranaga]

can we just lynch one of them? I'm a bit indifferent which one at this point.

[BuJaber]

It's because my analysis lead to the conclusion that mechanically because of what happened one of you is probably scum.

So if you are town it means lavos is the scum if I'm right.

But basically since I was talking about wagons and reactions it being you two is just a coincidence. The same analysis would apply if the same thing happened to any 2 slots that were suspected day 1 and then replaced out and then became wagons again on day 2 and then people unvoted them.

Or my analysis is completely wrong but it's hard to play with that assumption. Gotta test you're most-likely-to-be-right theories and adjust according to results.



@lavos - okay when you said this is wifom coming from awoo I interpretted that as evidence that awoo is scum. Didn't realize you were saying wifom here is a towntell.

Pedit - pretty sure I changed my vote let me double check

[BuJaber]

VOTE: uglyduck

Yes this was my latest vote..

Are unvotes required in this game?

[Toranaga]

yaeah bujaber is on uglyduck meaning uglyduck is L-1

[Lavos]

there, was never a wagon on me?

and I mean yeah I do think it's a scumtell from awoo but at the same time I also thought that uglyduck's position makes 0 sense and I am very confused.

[Toranaga]

there, was never a wagon on me?

and I mean yeah I do think it's a scumtell from awoo but at the same time I also thought that uglyduck's position makes 0 sense and I am very confused.

wait whats a scumtell from awoo? the self vote?

[Lavos]

this whole thing where he like makes tons of contradictions and then is basically like "i'm just town playing as scum"

selfvotes are nai etc

[Scioness Sajj]

It was plural you, BuJaber. Wasn't really talking to you

[Toranaga]

It was plural you, BuJaber. Wasn't really talking to you

scioness: ugly or awoo?