SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE


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Post Post #2125 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:53 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 2124, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 1941, Punreader wrote:
In post 1893, ManWithNoName wrote:punreader, you should just shoot me so that town can lynch a scum tomorrow rather than wasting time on me.
You know, this is actually the shot I had submitted until four hours prior to deadline, but to explain why I didn't, you have to first understand:
Commander Shepherd had a method of communicating with me, and
asked
me to shoot him. I wasn't particularly fond of the idea, but I obliged all the same. So, neither kill was mine. (The source of Taly's death is, presumably, having been the N1 nightkill and pun simply shooting TehBrawlGuy tonight.)

I'm fairly confident in three pun being Fire Assassin, Shoshin, and ManWithNoName (outside chance of the worst) at this point, but I still maintain Fire Assassin should not be lynched today. (In spite of his investigation choice being one which is 98% likely a pun investigation as Dunnstral was already nigh-conftown.) Given this,
VOTE: Shoshin.
@Dunn what do you make of this post here?
First half I believe happened as described

Reads part I think ManWithNoName is town because I thought about his role and i'd expect town to have at least 1 way of checking peoples rankings to try to catch lying scum and his role fits that

I do think Fire Assassin is bad/good c hance of scum, I can see the argument for keeping them alive 1 more night too. Shoshin is suspect from a process of elimination standpoint

I think you need to be looking at simple solutions to this mechanical weirdness, mafia fakeclaiming vig and then another mafia member fake claiming a cop inno on the fake claimed vig isn't likely, Espeonage is probably town regardless of what Fire is, etc
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Post Post #2126 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:16 pm

Post by Commander Shepard »

I understand what you are saying with the last paragraph.

However from where I am it is all “mechanical weirdness”.

I don’t see how the fuck I am alive. The simple answer to that question is Vax is lying. Further evidenced by the fact Vax can’t keep his scumreads straight.

Now if we start from the side of Vax is telling the truth then Punreader has to be lying.

If we start from Punreader and Vax telling the truth then I am protected twice. << This would be the mechanical weirdness I have a hard time accepting. I would find a cop inno being manipulated or outright false over two people protecting me. And yes I would believe it would necessarily be two otherwise cop follow the doc becomes a thing especially if I am wrong on MariaR with the auto BP claim given. We would have to have a separate protective (if you go with the one protective saves against all kills) that would have to hit me. Then if MariaR is truthtelling which I doubt, I think it was a ploy to not be NK’d or a ploy to avoid suspicion about not being NK’d, throw the one shot BP cop on it.

Three protectives or two AND cops is just too weird.

Simple answer is the last to claim is the liar.

Do you understand what I am saying?
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Post Post #2127 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:17 pm

Post by Commander Shepard »

From my point of view it is literally mechanical weirdness. Because I know a protective hit me or I would be dead.
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Post Post #2128 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:17 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 2121, Commander Shepard wrote:@DeasVail what I mean is please spoiler that cuteness
Apologies. I will do that from now on.
In post 2122, the worst wrote:I think I want to be your best friend deas but your read on me is a little gross
Sorry
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Post Post #2129 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:20 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 2126, Commander Shepard wrote:The simple answer to that question is Vax is lying.
No it isn't, because he has an inno on him. I don't like jumping straight to godfathers

I don't think there are two protectives that targeted you - that doesn't make any sense to me both mechanics wise (I don't think there are two protectives) and reads wise (Fire claimed cop so why are protectives on you)
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Post Post #2130 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:32 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2118, DeasVail wrote:I'm going to post my incredibly simplistic thoughts on players, because despite all the "information" we do have, when it comes down to it, I don't actually have that much to say.

Punreader: Very unlikely to be group scum. Even if they are some kind of third party, at this stage it's most likely in their best interests to help the town so their death is not worth pursuing any time soon. I often don't really gel with the arguments they make, but that's probably not alignment-relevant in this case.

MariaR: Overall I'm kind of underwhelmed by her play in the game. But I've been very underwhelming as well and so it's really a matter of working out whether this is town-apathy because of the mess that this game has been or if it's just scum coasting while town continues to be a mess. Is there any way to tell the difference between these two things??? I don't know! The inno on Vaxkiller is interesting and is a positive in my mind, but I can't rule it as unquestionably town.

Espeonage: If Fire Assassin's role is taken as valid, then Espe is town. I also don't think that Fire and Espe are scum together because Fire almost got Espe lynched.

Dunnstral: From play I strongly think that Dunn is town. There is also Fire's result (but Fire's alignment is a question mark to me right now)

Shepard: Very unsure what to think here. If I had to pick an alignment, it would be scum, but there are things that make me unsure. The FoSing of me without actually seeming to think that I'm scum seems to go against what scum would want to do. If they wanted to get me lynched, then just get me lynched. If they want to "townread" me, then I would expect some amount of buddying here. But maybe my problem here is that I'm making expected scumplay too simplistic. Maybe Shepard is just scum.

The worst: TBG's post at the end of Day 2 did resonate with me as I had been thinking similar things. I find the worst's play to be generally town but with nothing that actually strongly points away from scum, and at this stage of the game, that requires a re-look at the worst's alignment. He also seems to really fit with what I'd expect from coasting scum, but Taly did strongly think he was town and they did have some kind of role interaction, which gives me pause.

Shoshin: Despite her being a common scumread, I actually like her play. I know I don't have any strong reason for thinking this, but I feel uncomfortable about the idea of lynching her. Maybe this is a bad thing! Maybe I'm just being bad! I don't know.

Fire Assassin: I don't even know. I really thought that the cop guilty fiasco was indicative of town but today's play from Fire has just not been what I would expect from town.

Chara: Probably town despite my reservations.

ManWithNoName: My feelings on him are just super mediocre. If I needed to fill a scumteam theory, then I would probably put his name in because it wouldn't make me feel uncomfortable, but that would be lazy and maybe I just need to see more.

Vaxkiller: I struggle to see his play coming from scum so my inclination is then town regardless of Maria's alignment.

---

I am completely aware that most of the above is vague and unspecific and not at all helpful, but that's where my thoughts are at right now.

I probably would just lynch Shepard, but I am really worried considering how this game has gone so far.
This mirrors how I feel, except flip your thoughts on me to you, and I'm more confident about Shepard flipping scum.
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Post Post #2131 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:35 pm

Post by Commander Shepard »

In post 2129, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 2126, Commander Shepard wrote:The simple answer to that question is Vax is lying.
No it isn't, because he has an inno on him. I don't like jumping straight to godfathers

I don't think there are two protectives that targeted you - that doesn't make any sense to me both mechanics wise (I don't think there are two protectives) and reads wise (Fire claimed cop so why are protectives on you)
Okay...Then please point out what I am missing and how I can survive two shots on me?
I agree I find it absurd two protectives targeted me as well.

Which means I have to pick the least absurd of the options. There is also door three which is even more absurd than Vax lying, so I am loathe to even suggest it.
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Post Post #2132 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:36 pm

Post by Commander Shepard »

It’s a matter of picking which of the absurd to believe fmpov.
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Post Post #2133 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:41 pm

Post by Commander Shepard »

Oh god.

I just realized there is a world where no one is lying today and if it’s right it requires absolutely ingenious scum.

Lightning rod with strong willed kill. It was in a mini theme game I was in.

So lightning rod everything to me since I am a loud and vocal person.

Can anyone disprove this idea?

This one would explain potentially multiple protectives or if like there was a requirement the person survive.
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Post Post #2134 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:42 pm

Post by Commander Shepard »

Scum would rely on the fact I am a loud truck and then the chaos from my townflip scum ride the clusterfuck

Oh fuck.
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Post Post #2135 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:51 pm

Post by Commander Shepard »

Wait why isn’t fire screaming I am innocent?

*eyedaggers at Fire*

Fire who did you cop and what result did you get?
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Post Post #2136 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:40 pm

Post by ManWithNoName »

Shepard, contrary to the lessons of the Mass Effect series, there are other people in this game and Fire may have checked any of them.

Though, I do need some milk, could you go pick it up for me? That's what the RPG hero does, right?
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Post Post #2137 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:48 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 2133, Commander Shepard wrote:Lightning rod with strong willed kill. It was in a mini theme game I was in.

So lightning rod everything to me since I am a loud and vocal person.

Can anyone disprove this idea?
It's a wild theory based on nothing, and would make more sense with everything going to the dead town today
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Post Post #2138 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:17 pm

Post by Commander Shepard »

In post 2136, ManWithNoName wrote:Shepard, contrary to the lessons of the Mass Effect series, there are other people in this game and Fire may have checked any of them.

Though, I do need some milk, could you go pick it up for me? That's what the RPG hero does, right?
ManWithNoName, I am aware of the trillions of people in the galaxy and the more than 10 Fire could have checked (assuming he is town). It’s why I asked him for his results.

The RPG hero takes on quests and side quests that help save the world. Time permitting they take on side quests. Should I have time tonight I will find you a great milk GIF assuming it doesn’t detract from eliminating reaper scum.
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Post Post #2139 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:18 pm

Post by Commander Shepard »

In post 2137, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 2133, Commander Shepard wrote:Lightning rod with strong willed kill. It was in a mini theme game I was in.

So lightning rod everything to me since I am a loud and vocal person.

Can anyone disprove this idea?
It's a wild theory based on nothing, and would make more sense with everything going to the dead town today
With everything going to the dead town today? You mean me? Like I am trying to figure out if this is a slip or what you mean. Can you please restate that?
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Post Post #2140 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:32 pm

Post by Vaxkiller »

EDIT

I need to calm down i rewrote this a few times, this was the nicest version.


I made commander shepard claim because i was pissed off at the start of the day why he was still alive. He claimed is role and it did not jive at all with what I did.

******************If I were fucking scum why would I FAKE A FUCKING VIG ON HIM AFTER THE CLAIMED***************************

WHY

WHY


WHY??????
Vaxkiller is not anti-vaccine, he is a killer of Vax machines.

Games played.
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Post Post #2141 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:37 pm

Post by Commander Shepard »

In post 2140, Vaxkiller wrote:EDIT

I need to calm down i rewrote this a few times, this was the nicest version.


I made commander shepard claim because i was pissed off at the start of the day why he was still alive. He claimed is role and it did not jive at all with what I did.

******************If I were fucking scum why would I FAKE A FUCKING VIG ON HIM AFTER THE CLAIMED***************************

WHY

WHY


WHY??????
To mislynch me and cause chaos. I have claimed things as scum to cause chaos more times than I can count. More often than not I did it with the truth. It makes me think you probably killed TBG if there wasn’t a lightning rod.
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Post Post #2142 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:05 pm

Post by Espeonage »

Ok look Vax is almost certainly not mafia here. Also almost certainly not an Sk here. Lets get off the conf inno.

How many votes does Shep have?

Scum could have a doc. Or there could be some other doc or jail keep or something and they are trying to protect themselves from night kills.

I forget who made the point I think it was Dv that SK pun stays alive anyway because we need dead scum as much as they would. And well town pun is town so yeah.

Why don't we all come at this tomorrow after another night of night actions, and instead we lynch the fucking obvious scumlord that is Fire.

I just want it on record though that Shep has gone batshit crazy, but if they are town I would totally do the same in their shoes. I had an IC game where I lived two extra nights because of a JOAT protect, and then a change in the game complexion where scum needed the SK dead and SK wanted the scum dead so they tried to cross shot or some shit. I flipped out at people for not taking my day play seriously.
Don't @ me.
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Post Post #2143 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:23 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 2139, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 2137, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 2133, Commander Shepard wrote:Lightning rod with strong willed kill. It was in a mini theme game I was in.

So lightning rod everything to me since I am a loud and vocal person.

Can anyone disprove this idea?
It's a wild theory based on nothing, and would make more sense with everything going to the dead town today
With everything going to the dead town today? You mean me? Like I am trying to figure out if this is a slip or what you mean. Can you please restate that?
To the guy who died today that wasn't taly, maf's nightkill
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Post Post #2144 (ISO) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:33 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

Okay...let’s assume for a moment that happened and I am town.
Furthermore let’s assume that the lightning rod happened

Then who would be scum in that case. I am thinking Shoshin still.
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Post Post #2145 (ISO) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:37 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

@ManWithNoName
https://i.imgur.com/OrVcZi7.gifv

Closest gif I could find just replace shoe with milk. Not sure how this is relevant.
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Post Post #2146 (ISO) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:47 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

In post 2118, DeasVail wrote:I'm going to post my incredibly simplistic thoughts on players, because despite all the "information" we do have, when it comes down to it, I don't actually have that much to say.

Punreader: Very unlikely to be group scum. Even if they are some kind of third party, at this stage it's most likely in their best interests to help the town so their death is not worth pursuing any time soon. I often don't really gel with the arguments they make, but that's probably not alignment-relevant in this case.

<< Agreed

MariaR: Overall I'm kind of underwhelmed by her play in the game. But I've been very underwhelming as well and so it's really a matter of working out whether this is town-apathy because of the mess that this game has been or if it's just scum coasting while town continues to be a mess. Is there any way to tell the difference between these two things??? I don't know! The inno on Vaxkiller is interesting and is a positive in my mind, but I can't rule it as unquestionably town.

<< Agreed

Espeonage: If Fire Assassin's role is taken as valid, then Espe is town. I also don't think that Fire and Espe are scum together because Fire almost got Espe lynched.

<< Agreed

Dunnstral: From play I strongly think that Dunn is town. There is also Fire's result (but Fire's alignment is a question mark to me right now)

<< I wouldn’t use strongly for Dunn (that’d be Chara) but their play does seem town.

Shepard: Very unsure what to think here. If I had to pick an alignment, it would be scum, but there are things that make me unsure. The FoSing of me without actually seeming to think that I'm scum seems to go against what scum would want to do. If they wanted to get me lynched, then just get me lynched. If they want to "townread" me, then I would expect some amount of buddying here. But maybe my problem here is that I'm making expected scumplay too simplistic. Maybe Shepard is just scum.

<< I am told that I have galaxy or moon logic. I also keep FoS’s in play when something really pings me the wrong way to go back and reevaluate it later. It pinged me pure and simple it doesn’t rise to Shoshin or Vax level pings but it is there.

The worst: TBG's post at the end of Day 2 did resonate with me as I had been thinking similar things. I find the worst's play to be generally town but with nothing that actually strongly points away from scum, and at this stage of the game, that requires a re-look at the worst's alignment. He also seems to really fit with what I'd expect from coasting scum, but Taly did strongly think he was town and they did have some kind of role interaction, which gives me pause.

<< I think this is odd you bring it up and don’t explore it. This paragraph reads all kinds of ewwwww.

Shoshin: Despite her being a common scumread, I actually like her play. I know I don't have any strong reason for thinking this, but I feel uncomfortable about the idea of lynching her. Maybe this is a bad thing! Maybe I'm just being bad! I don't know.

<< Ewwwww bad. No. Scum’s job is to make you uncomfortable lynching them. If you scumread someone you lynch them. Fuck feelings.

Fire Assassin: I don't even know. I really thought that the cop guilty fiasco was indicative of town but today's play from Fire has just not been what I would expect from town.

<< Agreed. But Punreader has a point.

Chara: Probably town despite my reservations.

<<Chara is like obvTow

ManWithNoName: My feelings on him are just super mediocre. If I needed to fill a scumteam theory, then I would probably put his name in because it wouldn't make me feel uncomfortable, but that would be lazy and maybe I just need to see more.

<< If I am wrong somewhere I could see ManwithNoName being scum

Vaxkiller: I struggle to see his play coming from scum so my inclination is then town regardless of Maria's alignment.

<< I struggle to see where his play is coming from as town and two vigs is really hard to swallow. The claim seems bullshit, and will continue to seem bullshit until either a moderator confirms I am right or Vax is true claiming.

---

I am completely aware that most of the above is vague and unspecific and not at all helpful, but that's where my thoughts are at right now.

I probably would just lynch Shepard, but I am really worried considering how this game has gone so far.
Let’s lynch Shoshin.
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Post Post #2147 (ISO) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:47 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

VOTE: Shoshin
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Post Post #2148 (ISO) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:46 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

In post 1892, Commander Shepard wrote:With any luck you won’t have to bother and I will be dead and y’all will lynch Shoshin.
<< FYI one of my crumbs if anyone cares
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Post Post #2149 (ISO) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:50 am

Post by ManWithNoName »

In post 2144, Commander Shepard wrote:Okay...let’s assume for a moment that happened and I am town.
Furthermore let’s assume that the lightning rod happened

Then who would be scum in that case. I am thinking Shoshin still.
Why are we making an ass out of you and me here?
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