Mini 2014: Succinct Mafia (Over)

[MathBlade]

Repost of the redacted vote table from 865 as a static CSV:
https://ian.maxwell.name/misc/mini_2014_d1_votes.csv

CSV means no colors but we all know who's confirmed town.

I think the issue is that because the data resides on a link you could in theory (which I know you wouldn’t because you seem like a stand up person even though you’re scum) modify the data to be something different.

I have a program that can do it and post the data so people know it is unaltered.

@wisdom I am not. You’re just tunneling me. Otherwise you’d have said it before. You’re just looking for an excuse not to vote your top scumread Umlaut.

[Wisdom]

next time dont tunnel on my top scumread using bs and youll have better luck

[MafMen]

...what? So your planning for that one post to represent your reads completely?
Also how can someone just be "easy to tr" I've only ever seen that in relation to not wanting to push someone because they are better at the game than you

not wanting to push someone because they are better than you is NAI and people who use that are wrong

that one post doesnt sum up all my reads, but you asked me about why pine is town, people asked me about why you are scum
and ive already made a post about both of those

I don't understand what this post is saying

who doesn't want to push someone "because they are better than you"?

Actually, this is pretty low priority, I don't really care, I just don't get it

what im saying is you easily townread someone because they dont push people who are better at the game than you
you cant tr someone because

[Umlaut]

I think the issue is that because the data resides on a link you could in theory (which I know you wouldn’t because you seem like a stand up person even though you’re scum) modify the data to be something different.

I have a program that can do it and post the data so people know it is unaltered.

@wisdom I am not. You’re just tunneling me. Otherwise you’d have said it before. You’re just looking for an excuse not to vote your top scumread Umlaut.

Thanks for your concern. I actually verified that this sort of link was acceptable before I posted it, but I also anticipated this point being raised, so feel free to generate an SHA256 hash of the linked file and search for it in the Safe Stamper TSA timestamp list, to verify for yourself that it existed in its current form as of 16:17:59 today and could not possibly have been altered after that.

(In principle I suppose could have planned ahead of time to later swap out the linked file for a completely different one, generated in advance and timestamped by the same server within the same second, but I can't think of any advantage worth risking a modkill that could be gained from such a tactic. So you don't have to trust me as an upstanding person

or

as a townie, just trust that I want to win the game.)

----

Had to go dig up the contradiction Otter refers to. It's originally pointed out in 341 and it's... well, here it is.

The bolded bits [of #338] don't line up:
- 'Sorry y'all I'm not doing my best'
- 'But what if I'm just playing as lynchbait?' (Contradicts previous statement: If he meant to be playing as lynchbait he'd have nothing to apologize for)
- 'Don't feel confident in voting someone atm'
I didn't just ask why he wasn't voting anyone, but also if he had any reads yet. His statement on Pine's playstyle is NAI (and Pine already addressed it). Light shade thrown at Wisdom but is pretty hedgy. If he were trying to play as lynchbait, we shouldn't have to ask him who he thinks the scum are running up his wagon. If he's not trying to play as lynchbait, why even bring it up as a possibility?

Before I elaborate further on my feelings about this, I want Otter's.

@Otter

Knowing now that Fuzzy wrote 338 as town, how do you reconcile the contradictions? What do you think Fuzzy meant, or do you think he was just lying town?

(Please no one else answer this.)

[Umlaut]

Spoiler: Off-topic nerdery

(Actually, in retrospect that timestamp solution is waaaay more complicated than just pasting the digest into the post would have been. I worried about "appearing to include hidden messages" but if I had a way to hide a message in a verifiable SHA256 digest I'd have bigger fish to fry than cheating at Mafia. That's probably what I'll do with any future game-relevant offsite links.)

UNVOTE: MathBlade
This is feeling more and more like town. Hopelessly confbiased town, but town.

VOTE: ArcAngel9
Let's wagon this instead. It's almost certainly an empty slot at the moment but I'm not interested in giving the replacement a chance to get comfortable before they're put under pressure.

Unvote for deadline

until replacement happens, don't want a day 1 repeat.

[Wisdom]

not interested. Arc was pretty town in the beginning and she caught hiraki before i did.

[Dunnstral]

I'm confused about what the timestamp link is supposed to be showing me

[LuckyOtter]

@Umlaut: Here's the whole thing for context:

I admit that I have mostly just floated along this game and have not done much except maybe threw in a few mediocre posts at best. No way is this my best.

Okay so Math thinking is that I am scum and that my scum partners are pushing for my lynch as they did in the Three game. I kinda get why he is being paranoid here since I burnt him badly as scum. I think that he is ignoring the possibility I am town and I am am just getting run up by scum ie

I am playing as lynchbait this game

. Not asking you to town read me Math but just consider that I might be town here/ Basically he being paranoid as anything. Honestly this kinda makes me think Math is town here, Maybe he over estimating my scum game, Not sure. I thinking Math is town.

I think Pine is playing layed back game. Its kinda wierd that he think Math is scum when Math is the one who is really pushing me as scum.

I dont get Wisdom reads...... It just seems like he scum reading people . I am confused his votes on Fritz and me. Kinda feel like he just going with the crowd

Otto.....

I just dont feel confident in voting for a players atm

.......

( would be funny if Math is scum this game and I get burnt .....after the Ending in Three game it would be a fair turn around)

The bolded bits don't line up:
- 'Sorry y'all I'm not doing my best'
- 'But what if I'm just playing as lynchbait?' (Contradicts previous statement: If he meant to be playing as lynchbait he'd have nothing to apologize for)
- 'Don't feel confident in voting someone atm'
I didn't just ask why he wasn't voting anyone, but also if he had any reads yet. His statement on Pine's playstyle is NAI (and Pine already addressed it). Light shade thrown at Wisdom but is pretty hedgy. If he were trying to play as lynchbait, we shouldn't have to ask him who he thinks the scum are running up his wagon. If he's not trying to play as lynchbait, why even bring it up as a possibility?

I have more thoughts on this but want Fuzzy to respond to Dunn first.

The bit that didn't line up for me was the "i.e. I am playing as lynchbait," which I took to mean that he was intentionally playing as lynchbait. That didn't line up with the rest of his post and it still doesn't line up with the fact that he was a cop (why try to be lynchbait as cop?). I'm guessing he was just trying to lay low as cop and that here he just meant that others were attacking him as an easy target (so he is not intentionally playing as lynchbait, but that seems to be the role that others have ascribed to him). Or, maybe he meant to use 'e.g.' instead of 'i.e.' in order to say something like "Math is ignoring the possibility that I am intentionally playing in a not obviously townie way, such as lynchbait (subtext: or as a cop). But, the way that he wrote it, neither of those interpretations is very obvious. The reads that followed were lazy and hedgy. The cop claim later didn't help clarify this at all. It just all felt icky.

For the record, in retrospect, I get that the better move would have been to sort Fuzzy out D2 or just let the scum NK him. I didn't think that through, I felt really sure he was scum, and I had just previously gotten talked out of voting scum in a different game against my instinct, so I was having a 'I better go with my gut' moment and absolutely everything felt off with him. That's honestly the best I can do to defend my Fuzzy vote.

[MathBlade]

next time dont tunnel on my top scumread using bs and youll have better luck

Says I am his top scumread.

Then in the next post says Umlaut is.

And says what I am saying about Umlaut is bs without addressing it.

I wish I was a fucking dayvig right now. I would fucking shoot you and Umlaut right now Desperado style.

[Umlaut]

@Wisdom

I am wholly unimpressed by Arc's "catch" of Hiraki and also by yours. You don't get to say you've caught someone until they flip red and that's not something I'm expecting to see from him.

----

@MathBlade

I have some questions.

That is L-1 people. I don’t believe Fitz is scum.

Why didn't you believe Fitz was scum and what changed your mind? Was it just my 'slip' or was there more to it than that?

Umlaut's answer of why Umlaut called me she is wholly unsatisfactory. Reeks of coached by scum.

Could you give a hypothetical example of an answer that would have been satisfactory and not scumread-worthy?

I am pretty chill. I have a reasonable idea who the investigative is.

Who did you think the investigative was? Why?

Fitz is definitely scum and then theres at least one in the people that tunneled on fuzzy - my bet is luckyotter. And then the last one is prolly hiraki

see you tomorrow

Remember rule of three people.

Conditional on Wisdom's being scum, how would you rank these in order of most- to least-likely scum? I'm guessing I'm at the top but where are the other two?

I can believe that. Anyway, unnecessarily hammering a cop for town cred would be one hell of a deep play.

Oh yeah,
VOTE: Dunnstral

This really is making me question my Wisdom townread.

hi people i dont know

please vote math

This is a scum claim

Wagon exists on top suspect votes me instead

In other news Wisdom still scum claiming by not helping me bus.

Similarly Wisdom is still scum for not voting his top scumspect

@wisdom I am not [your top suspect]. You’re just tunneling me. Otherwise you’d have said it before. You’re just looking for an excuse not to vote your top scumread Umlaut.

Do you have any basis for your Wisdom read that isn't predicated on my being scum? Pretend a genie tells you I'm town, what's your read on Wisdom then?

----

pedit

I'm confused about what the timestamp link is supposed to be showing me

You don't have to worry about it, it's just there to prove I'm not breaking site rules.

If you want to respond to something I've posted, you could try the questions I asked you.

----

pedit

oh screw it I'll read the next two posts after I submit this.

[MathBlade]

@Wisdom

I am wholly unimpressed by Arc's "catch" of Hiraki and also by yours. You don't get to say you've caught someone until they flip red and that's not something I'm expecting to see from him.

----

@MathBlade

I have some questions.

That is L-1 people. I don’t believe Fitz is scum.

Why didn't you believe Fitz was scum and what changed your mind? Was it just my 'slip' or was there more to it than that? Mainly I have pretty firm townreads and you’re my top scum candidate as you and I haven’t played before so saying “she” wouldn’t be a thing unless someone implanted it. People generally default to he or they if they don’t know.

<< I didn’t believe Fitz was scum because of how the wagons were developing. However with Fuzzy flipping the cop, I started to reanalyze my reads.

Umlaut's answer of why Umlaut called me she is wholly unsatisfactory. Reeks of coached by scum.

Could you give a hypothetical example of an answer that would have been satisfactory and not scumread-worthy?

I don’t like coaching likely scum but I hate question dodging even worse when I don’t see the consequence to answering. “uhmmm Math. It was a typo. Not seeing how this is important. What do you think about <topic you believe to be productive>” However you defended against it waaaay too hard and apologized(which I feel is genuine but scummy)

I am pretty chill. I have a reasonable idea who the investigative is.

Who did you think the investigative was? Why?

<< I thought it was Kokichi based on a certain post. Will find it when not phone posting.

Fitz is definitely scum and then theres at least one in the people that tunneled on fuzzy - my bet is luckyotter. And then the last one is prolly hiraki

see you tomorrow

Remember rule of three people.

Conditional on Wisdom's being scum, how would you rank these in order of most- to least-likely scum? I'm guessing I'm at the top but where are the other two?

<<Wisdom after you then Lucky then Hiraki. I just don’t think Hiraki is scum. Otter could be but very unlikely. I’d rather lynch you Wisdom and Kokichi before Otter.

I can believe that. Anyway, unnecessarily hammering a cop for town cred would be one hell of a deep play.

Oh yeah,
VOTE: Dunnstral

This really is making me question my Wisdom townread.

hi people i dont know

please vote math

This is a scum claim

Wagon exists on top suspect votes me instead

In other news Wisdom still scum claiming by not helping me bus.

Similarly Wisdom is still scum for not voting his top scumspect

@wisdom I am not [your top suspect]. You’re just tunneling me. Otherwise you’d have said it before. You’re just looking for an excuse not to vote your top scumread Umlaut.

Do you have any basis for your Wisdom read that isn't predicated on my being scum? Pretend a genie tells you I'm town, what's your read on Wisdom then?

----

If you’re town then I would take into account what caused you to flip town, but I think there’s way too much evidence for you being scum with Wisdom than against.

pedit

I'm confused about what the timestamp link is supposed to be showing me

You don't have to worry about it, it's just there to prove I'm not breaking site rules.

If you want to respond to something I've posted, you could try the questions I asked you.

----

pedit

oh screw it I'll read the next two posts after I submit this.

Quick phone responses inline will try to do more later time permitting.

[Wisdom]

vote for deadline

can we get a lynch already? this game sucks

[TrinityNZ]

Spoiler: Off-topic nerdery

(Actually, in retrospect that timestamp solution is waaaay more complicated than just pasting the digest into the post would have been. I worried about "appearing to include hidden messages" but if I had a way to hide a message in a verifiable SHA256 digest I'd have bigger fish to fry than cheating at Mafia. That's probably what I'll do with any future game-relevant offsite links.)

UNVOTE: MathBlade
This is feeling more and more like town. Hopelessly confbiased town, but town.

VOTE: ArcAngel9
Let's wagon this instead. It's almost certainly an empty slot at the moment but I'm not interested in giving the replacement a chance to get comfortable before they're put under pressure.

Unvote for deadline

until replacement happens, don't want a day 1 repeat.

This confuses me as to why you would vote for a deadline one day and then unvote it the next? Because you think MathBlade is town because he created that document? And why AA?

[Umlaut]

I don’t like coaching likely scum but I hate question dodging even worse when I don’t see the consequence to answering. “uhmmm Math. It was a typo. Not seeing how this is important. What do you think about ” However you defended against it waaaay too hard and apologized(which I feel is genuine but scummy)

It wasn't a typo, though.

I really don't like to keep coming back to this because I imagine it's not an especially fun topic for you, but you've made it the linchpin (heh, lynch-pin) of a scum case against me and if you're town then it's to both our benefits for you to break out of this tunnel and do something productive instead. So I'm going to try and explain where I'm coming from.

Spoiler: CW: gender stuff

IRL I am deeply entrenched in a community (polyam) that at least locally is well over 50% queer and probably ~20x as trans as the general population. I have been part of the support network for friends experiencing dysphoria and facing transphobia and trolling, and so while I have no first-person experience these are not just abstract concerns for me. Said community also has more than its share of high-strung social justice types and I have watched people get angrily piled on and then shunned

en masse

for once saying and standing by some dumbassed remark. This is a group where I once had to hastily correct "penises" to "male genitalia" in a conversation about stupid shit men do on dating sites. So you might say I'm a

little

more sensitive on this topic than most, in both relevant senses of that word.

If I make a pronoun error I'll normally just say "oh sorry," correct it, and let everyone move on. Everything I've seen says this is the best way to handle it. But if someone

requests

an explanation and I have one, I'm going to give it, especially if the request is packaged with an insinuation that I'm being somehow disingenuous. If I came off as defensive it might be because I actually felt I needed to be careful to avoid causing you IRL mental distress in the course of addressing your question.

Literally not a word of this proves I'm town. But I'm not trying to prove I'm town, I'm just trying to give you context so you can stop assuming I'm scum and basing every read you have on the presumption of a red flip that isn't going to happen.

Also, see post #82 in the Open 680 Mafia PT, where I called you 'she'.

If you’re town then I would take into account what caused you to flip town, but I think there’s way too much evidence for you being scum with Wisdom than against.

I didn't ask about flipping, I said a genie told you. Imagine mastina sent you a PM right now saying "Surprise, you're Day 2 Informed, your information is that Umlaut is town." Where does this put you on Wisdom? on others?

Currently it seems like once I flip green you can just say "oops, guess all my reads on everyone useless now" and be excused for throwing them all away and starting over, which is one of my own favorite scum tactics to avoid being held to anything long-term. I want to see some analysis from you not based on something I know is false.

This confuses me as to why you would vote for a deadline one day and then unvote it the next? Because you think MathBlade is town because he created that document? And why AA?

See: d1 ruling.

What document?

Because AA's scummy.

(Out of words and posts, see you after 17:13)

[Wisdom]

no she isnt
Have you even played with her before?

[MathBlade]

TrinityNZ is trying to fake a townderp tell. She means your doc Umlaut.

And if a genie did, I would ask for it to remove all evil in the world or make me a billionaire to prove its right and then immediately replace out as I would have better than mod confirmed information on your slot. If I was forced to stay I would vote Wisdom. Trinity is getting up in scumreads too.

[Umlaut]

@everyone

What does a typical Friday schedule look like for you, in terms of work, school, other obligations? What time do you leave home in the morning, what time do you get back? And have there been any notable exceptions to that schedule in the past month or so?

(By way of example, here's my answer: I'm at work from at least 9:30 to 5:30 (14:30-22:30 UTC) every weekday; Friday is no exception. I'm generally awake at 7 and out the door between 8:30 and 9:00. I often work late and Austin evening traffic is horrible so I'm frequently not home until sometime after 7. Oddly enough Friday is one of the nights I usually

don't

have plans and just go home. I did actually take a work-from-home day this past Friday because I had some other things to take care of, otherwise no variations recently.)

@Wisdom

Have you even played with

[ArcAngel9]

before?

No, why?

Supposing Hiraki is town, what is the remaining basis for an Arc townread?

@Pine

So does Fuzzy

[need votes]

. Laying low after worthy suspicion

1. Which of the suspicions raised against Fuzzy prior to 151 did you consider worthy?
   
2. Do you have any general thoughts on how to distinguish between low activity and “laying low”?

@MathBlade

TrinityNZ is trying to fake a townderp tell. She means your doc Umlaut.

What makes it fake townderp and not real townderp?

@EeveeLution Army

How in the world can you read pines iso and be like "yup nothing scummy here" ?

What's scummy in Pine's ISO?

@TrinityNZ

I liked your predecessors for town but I'm pretty sure you've done fuck-all since replacing in. How about some reads deeper than "yo, I scumread Math"?

@Dunnstral

I'm still waiting on answers here.

Yesterday in 589 you moved your vote to TheFuzzylogic99, saying only "Fitz wagon feels wrong." Can you recall what felt wrong about it? Was this something about Fitz or something about the makeup the wagon? In particular, what changed your feelings between 542 and that post?

If it helps jog your memory, immediately before you moved your vote the VC would have been as follows.

havingfitz:

Momrangal, Wisdom, ArcAngel9, Dunnstral, Kokichi Oma (L-2)

TheFuzzylogic99:

LuckyOtter, MathBlade, SirCakez, Pine (L-3)

EeveeLution Army:

havingfitz, Hiraki (L-5)

Pine:

EeveeLution Army (L-6)

SirCakez:

TheFuzzylogic99 (L-6)

I think this is the last round of "Umlaut asks a zillion seemingly unrelated questions" for this game-day.

[LuckyOtter]

My summer Fridays are completely unpredictable, and I'm about to go V/LA for a research trip this weekend. I'll try to get some rereading done before I go and post something substantive, but I honestly don't think my vote is going to move. I feel like I need math to flip before I can get a better read of others.

[MathBlade]

I should be okay because of 24 hour reset rule

@Umlaut because Trinity read enough to see a link yet she didn’t go over to the left to see who did?

If she is reading the posts to obtain reads then surely she would be able to see who wrote it. It’s not like the game is going fast. Trinity hasn’t been reading or displaying any sort of depth at all.

[TrinityNZ]

TrinityNZ is trying to fake a townderp tell. She means your doc Umlaut.

And if a genie did, I would ask for it to remove all evil in the world or make me a billionaire to prove its right and then immediately replace out as I would have better than mod confirmed information on your slot. If I was forced to stay I would vote Wisdom. Trinity is getting up in scumreads too.

I have no idea what you mean by ‘trying to fake a townderp tell’?

[TrinityNZ]

I should be okay because of 24 hour reset rule

@Umlaut because Trinity read enough to see a link yet she didn’t go over to the left to see who did?

If she is reading the posts to obtain reads then surely she would be able to see who wrote it. It’s not like the game is going fast. Trinity hasn’t been reading or displaying any sort of depth at all.

Whoops, I can see I did get it wrong about who created the document. The link I clicked was in a post of MathBlade’s, and I didn’t notice that it was actually in a quote of Umlaut’s.

I have been reading, but it’s harder than I thought it would be, coming into the game, especially where there are a lot of pages to read, and there have been a fair few substitutions.

Nothing has swayed me from my initial read on MathBlade. Pine and MafMen could be partners. Umlaut, Hiraki, Dunstaal read town to me.

[Hiraki]

Umlaut, you're doing a lot of the work I wanted to do...so thanks.

Currently it seems like once I flip green you can just say "oops, guess all my reads on everyone useless now" and be excused for throwing them all away and starting over, which is one of my own favorite scum tactics to avoid being held to anything long-term. I want to see some analysis from you not based on something I know is false.

I don't agree with this. The fact that Math answered that way just proves he's being irrational this game overall (which is, annoying).

no she isnt
Have you even played with her before?

not interested. Arc was pretty town in the beginning and she caught hiraki before i did.

Choose one.

I also don't think Wisdom is worth talking to anymore for these reasons. Unlike Math, Wisdom is also playing dumb but not as consistently.

@everyone What does a typical Friday schedule look like for you, in terms of work, school, other obligations? What time do you leave home in the morning, what time do you get back? And have there been any notable exceptions to that schedule in the past month or so?

Variable. What is the point of this question?

[Umlaut]

@everyone What does a typical Friday schedule look like for you, in terms of work, school, other obligations? What time do you leave home in the morning, what time do you get back? And have there been any notable exceptions to that schedule in the past month or so?

Variable. What is the point of this question?

I'd say "I'll explain once I get my answers" but the question is actually moot now so I may as well explain it.

I thought I saw an anomaly in some people's post times on Friday June 22 (the day of Fuzzy's claim) compared to their usual sitewide activity pattern, and wanted to rule out alternate explanations before building a case around it. I really only needed those individuals to answer, and all I

really

needed to know was "did anything happen IRL on June 22 that would have altered your habitual activity pattern," but I didn't want to tip my hand as to who they were or why I was asking. But on closer investigation of those players' post histories I'm pretty sure I was just seeing things before and there is no anomaly to be explained. So I really don't care if anyone else answers this question.

I've got a couple of (500-word) walls drafted. I still want answers to my remaining questions

before

I post them, because I expect them to significantly change the game state. But I can proceed without them if need be.

[Dunnstral]

@Dunnstral

Yesterday in 589 you moved your vote to TheFuzzylogic99, saying only "Fitz wagon feels wrong." Can you recall what felt wrong about it? Was this something about Fitz or something about the makeup the wagon? In particular, what changed your feelings between 542 and that post?

If it helps jog your memory, immediately before you moved your vote the VC would have been as follows.

havingfitz:

Momrangal, Wisdom, ArcAngel9, Dunnstral, Kokichi Oma (L-2)

TheFuzzylogic99:

LuckyOtter, MathBlade, SirCakez, Pine (L-3)

EeveeLution Army:

havingfitz, Hiraki (L-5)

Pine:

EeveeLution Army (L-6)

SirCakez:

TheFuzzylogic99 (L-6)

I was primarily voting eevee yesterday, I moved to havingfitz when it was clear my wagon wasn't happening with deadline coming up. I think Kokichi jumped on then fuzzy moved on without a word and something told me it was a wagon to save fuzzy, like I said it felt wrong so I moved to Fuzzy

[EeveeLution Army]

Umlaut what i personally have seen as scummy from his iso are
1) He wanted alot of 1v1s D1
2) he was insisted on copclaim dying
3) He mentioned two people he wanted to look more into D2 but havent really mentioned either(unless im missing a post in his iso)