Newbie 524 - Lunchtime Mafia - Game Over!

[Mr. Flay]

Tyfo's days are numbered, and the number of them is three. Unfortunately, this is the fourth day, so...

Tyfo,

Cop

, has been killed Night Three.

It is now Day Four. With three left alive, two votes will be enough to lynch.

[CFK]

Before I go any further, I would like to say that I am going hiking on friday and saturday so I will be unavailable on those days.

I'll start with the obvious,

nobody vote for anybody until we reach a consensus or we risk a speedylynch

. If you suspect somebody, by all means FOS them but don't vote. Looking back, no-lynch may have been the wrong move, because we lost our cop, but we'll have to deal with it. Right now, I am equally suspicious of both Strife and kempo so I'll wait to see what you have to say before making any sudden moves.

[strife220]

Hmm. Bad luck N3. Wonder if mafia knew. And I really wonder why Tyfo didn't out himself. I think everyone should be going back to see if Tyfo breadcrumbed any information

[strife220]

Tyfo did a good job D2 not revealing his role. He slowly becomes more and more convinced that MFBs cop claim is scummy instead of admitting he Knows he's scum. I think it's safe to assume that Tyfo investigated MFB N1, giving him no info to reveal to us.


I guess Tyfo investigated TrouserDemon N2, thus giving him no information still. Bad luck there. I'd say that's more likely than him breadcrumbing information.


At the beginning of D3 he says he doesn't have a clue who's scum, but Sockpuppet (i.e. me) stands out the most for not voting MFB.

He later says he doesn't expect CFK as much because CFK was an early voter of MFB. This may be worth checking out to see if it looks like distancing or not.


Of all people I'm incredibly confused why Tyfo did not want a no-lynch. He's the first one to bring it up, but says it wouldn't do any good. When I ask him directly why he thinks no-lynch is bad, he says he believes scum may know who the cop is. Which is a big surprise to me because reading Tyfo's posts, I didn't see any neon signs. I wonder if the scum knew to lynch Tyfo or if they just got lucky.


Oh my; out of all Tyfo's posts, nothing particularly useful. He suspects Kempo and I above CFK, but not overwhelmingly. I think we're going to have to do a bit of hard question-based scum-hunting today.


What I'm most interested in is to hear how CFK was so confident that Tyfo was town. In hindsight, it does look like buddying up.
Your predictions as to what would happen were a suspiciously accurate. Tyfo was town (like you were quite sure of) and on N3 Tyfo was lynched (like you were quite sure of). When looking over Tyfo's post history the only thing that made Tyfo seem the most likely town was his part on the MFB lynch, which could have been interpreted as a smart scum bussing his weaker partner. This makes me uneasy because it gives you the opportunity to play the "I told you so" card D4. Could you please explain exactly what actions made you think Kempo and I were much more likely scum than Tyfo?


I'll look more closely at the D1 mislynch and probably MFBs lynch D2 later.

[CFK]

Of all people I'm incredibly confused why Tyfo did not want a no-lynch.

I agree, if anybody wants an extra night then it is bound to be the cop. He could, however have been trying to mislead the scum into thinking somebody else was the cop.

What I'm most interested in is to hear how CFK was so confident that Tyfo was town. In hindsight, it does look like buddying up.

Your predictions as to what would happen were a suspiciously accurate. Tyfo was town (like you were quite sure of) and on N3 Tyfo was lynched (like you were quite sure of). When looking over Tyfo's post history the only thing that made Tyfo seem the most likely town was his part on the MFB lynch

I wasn't "quite sure" that he was going to be NK'ed. I said I thought that it was "likely" but that does not amount to the same thing. As to why I was nearly certain he was town, it's simple. He hasn't done anything wrong. If you look back through the game, I'm sure you can find points where any of us three has said something that sounded a little scummy, whereas I think you would be hard pressed to find something scummy that Tyfo said. As far as I am aware, he has not been FOS'ed all game. Also, he was very decisive on MBF's lynch at a point where it could have gone either way. If he was gonna bus him, he would have waited until he was sure he couldn't get TD lynched. That's why I found it highly likely that he was town. As to why I suspected he would be NK'ed, if you were scum, who would you go for: somebody who looks fairly innocent, or somebody who looks fairly scummy?

[CFK]

I would like to here more from Kempo

[thekempo]

I think strife's mafia. Evafreak pulled that stupid L-1 move and sockpuppet buried the cause even further, 'n now strife's come in and pretty much taken over the game. He seems like an experienced player and he puts forward some good points. He basically directed the last round 'n seemed to get the outcome he wanted, then the cop got lynched. I don't think that's coincidental.

CFK hasn't peaked my suspicions much throughout the game, I did find it kinda strange how he confused me and Evafreak though. That was odd.

To be honest, if sockpuppet was still in the game I think I'd have kept my vote on him last round. But like I said, strife put forward some good points and I still think the no lynch was a good move, the risk just didn't pay off like we hoped.

[strife220]

I admit I directed the last round, and we did get the worst result possible, but I'm still more comfortable with this situation than having to figure out who out of 3 people was scum. If you think that the cop lynch was not random, then you should be able to come up with some evidence how anyone would know that Tyfo was the cop. When I looked back, I really couldn't find any breadcrumbs at all.

To address the Evafreak issue - Evafreak has only made 2 posts on mafiascum. One being a /in for a newbie game, and the second being the weird early Vote: CFK. If I was a third party by-stander I can come up with 2 reasons for that behaviour. 1 - He was scum and clearly didn't know how to play the game. 2 - He was town and clearly didn't know how to play the game. I can't really offer any more explanation than that. Why would a scum put someone at L-1 on the first page and call it a 'semi-random' vote. I know that's a 'too scummy to be scum' argument, but it's the best I've got here. I can't understand the behaviour either which way.

[strife220]

Just did a full read-through and there are a few things I'd like to note. I'm not going to scrutinize Eva's/Sock's actions. I'm also going to try to be unbiased and present pro-and-con poitns against both of you, Kempo and CFK. Some people say this is opportunistic scum behaviour but I disagree - I hope that whichever of you is town does a better job of noticing the scummy behaviour of the other. I can give examples outside of this particular game where I do this sort of thing as town and gotten in trouble for it, which is why I'm explaining in advance. Here goes:



Everybody FOS'd MFB in the first few pages. Thekempo being the most aggressive and sticking the vote down. Later CFK states that MFB is his 'number one suspect. Unfortunately from my point of view, it means there's 2xdistancing going on. This combines with the follow post interestingly:

But since I'm about to die, I'll say this: If I had to guess who the scum were at this moment, it'd be thephantom and either CFK or TrouserDemon.

CFK has been a bit wishy-washy, supporting my lynch without actually being a part of it, and trying to look like he's suspicious of thephantom when he obviously isn't.



TrouserDemon has been clinging to thephantom's logic against me for awhile now, and the both of them keep demanding that I prove my innocence, when I can't.

I find this post very interesting because Phantom and Trouser both came up town. The natural thing for scum to do if they make a list like this would be to throw a scum in the midst. While the argument is a bit WIFOM, it's still a very interesting post. If both Kempo and CFK are distancing, I would guess that MFB would go along and attack his partner back.


Next page, MFB does a 180 defends and says Phantom and I are scumbuddies. Interesting that he dropped CFK and Trouser from his scum-list so quickly, expecially considering I (sockpuppet) hadn't posted inbetween MFB's suspicion posts.
Thekempo buys MFB's new defenses and unvotes to throw attention on my/sockpuppet. This kind of sticks around for the rest of the game (including right now apparently). Not sure what kind of tell this is - pro or anti-town.


And unfortunately again CFK and Kempo, both your "Vote: Phantom" posts went out the same time, well placed after Phantom's "lynch me and regret it!" posts.


*Shameless self-promotion; Sock wasn't part of the lightning fast Phantom lynch!*



Right out of N1 Kempo made 2 posts justifying his vote for Phantom. Perhaps this could be interpreted as scum feeling nervous about being part of the wagon. Not a great point in and of itself.



Post 216 early D2 MFB makes a scum-list, saying CFK is scum and Kempo is town.

[strife220]

Post 219 I'm going to mark as incredibly significant. It's the post where MFB claims cop and votes Trouser, and Kempo takes it for gospel and votes. He then unvotes after Tyfo points out the behaviour.

The two interpretations here would be

1. Kempo is 100% telling the truth, is pro-town, and honestly didn't think you could 'fake-claim.' It seems a little strange to think that a claim is always the truth, but I've made bigger mistakes on my first game.

2. Kempo is scum, knew MFB was scum, and pulled the Vote - Unvote thing to imply that they couldn't possibly both be scum.

Based on Kempo's behaviour for the entire game, I would think that situation 2 is unlikely. It seems too masterminded to come from a newbie player (no offense Kempo), and if situation 2 was correct, I'd imagine the situation was set up by MFB.
Will try to put this together with other information after.



Mid-day2, Kempo puts up his scumlist. CFK is at the bottom of his list and Mike's in the middle.


I'll note that at this point, MFB claimed cop and it's lylo - if people buy his claim and lynch Trouser, mafia wins. I'd imagine his partner would act accordingly.


Post 238 Kempo asks for a cop to counter-claim, saying that if there isn't one, we should believe MFB.


CFK post 239 discusses how MFB or Trouser must be scum. He says if MFB is scum, Kempo is the most likely scumbuddy because of how he reacted to MFB's cop claim. CFK, could you please discuss this a bit, as it's a very interesting statement now that we know MFB was scum. Do you still think that Kempo's willingness to agree with MFB was because they're scumbuddies, or do you think his 'I didn't know' claim was earnest?
You then highlight how Kempo asked for a cop claim, implying that you think MFB fake cop-claimed thinking that there would be a counterclaim for Kempo to lynch that night. Do you still think Kempo's counterclaim request was scummy and points to MFB and Kempo being scum?



Post 256 Kempo does a good post noting that MFB wasn't in under any pressure to announce his vote. Post 265 CFK sympathizes with MFB's claim for outing his cop roll early. In this situation, kempo was correct that a cop should not claim like that. Kempo soon follows up with a Vote MFB.


Post 273 CFK reiterates that MFB and Kempo seem like likely scum partners. CFK, care to reread your old post and state if your opinion has changed and why?


Post 295, CFK hammers, giving a fairly detailed explanation.

[strife220]

Okay there's my recap. If you could both make comments on it, it would be appreciated.
Specifically, I'd like CFK to address his old suspicions about MFB and Kempo being scum. You sounded so sure before - what has changed? And Kempo, I'd like you to answer why, despite CFKs fairly viscous attacks on you saying that your newbie claim regarding the fake-claim and no-lynch, you seem fairly certain that CFK is town? It's a little unusual for someone to think the person attacking them most is the most pro-town.


After replies I'll put in my summarized 2 cents from my recap

[CFK]

CFK hasn't peaked my suspicions much throughout the game, I did find it kinda strange how he confused me and Evafreak though. That was odd.

My bad, I wasn't thinking straight.

I agree with you about Evafreak, that was neither here nor there.

The natural thing for scum to do if they make a list like this would be to throw a scum in the midst.

I disagree, if MBF was fairly confident he could get thephantom lynched, then he would only need 1 more townie lynch to win the game, and either trouserdemon or myself would have done fine. Besides, at this point in the game thephantom genuinely looked scummy, so his list would have been believeable.

*Shameless self-promotion; Sock wasn't part of the lightning fast Phantom lynch!*

He wasn't part of any lynch so that is neither here nor there.

Post 219 I'm going to mark as incredibly significant. It's the post where MFB claims cop and votes Trouser, and Kempo takes it for gospel and votes. He then unvotes after Tyfo points out the behaviour.

I find your second option more likely, he seemed to be fairly aware of the rules.

Do you still think Kempo's counterclaim request was scummy and points to MFB and Kempo being scum?

Got it in one.

Post 265 CFK sympathizes with MFB's claim for outing his cop roll early. In this situation, kempo was correct that a cop should not claim like that.

Peronally, I think a cop should claim at the start of the day. That way if they end up under pressure later, it doesn't just look like they said it to prevent their lynch.

Yes, I still think kempo and MBF are scumbuddies. On D2 especially, kempo took what MBF had to say "as gospel" and made a lot of posts that basically just used MBF's arguments. He has also used the whole "Noob mistake" thing but I think he is just using that argument to defend himself. While at the start of this day, I put strife under pressure because he cocked the "no-lynch thing up (at least in my opinion, the main reason was because he was quite aggressively attacking me. Now I've thought about a bit more, I am more inclined to think that he is town because his attacks haven't been just on me and it shows that he is being pro-active. On the other hand, Kempo has had very little to say, which is bordering on lurking.

[thekempo]

And Kempo, I'd like you to answer why, despite CFKs fairly viscous attacks on you saying that your newbie claim regarding the fake-claim and no-lynch, you seem fairly certain that CFK is town? It's a little unusual for someone to think the person attacking them most is the most pro-town.

Yea, even though he's constantly getting at me for things I've explained about 48 times, he hasn't done many scummy things compared to Evafreak/sockpuppet.

It's getting pretty annoying having to defend the same things over 'n over though.

Excuse the lack of groundbreaking posts from me, I'm mulling over the game as a whole at the moment. Strife replacing Sockpuppet turned things sideways.

[strife220]

Heads up to everyone. I will be partially V/LA for the next 3 weeks (May 21st). I should be able to post about once every 2-4 days, but won't be doing any lengthy recaps. I will try to contribute enough to warrant not being replaced, but of course that's up to the mod.


Kempo, I'll give you a few days to mull things over and post any new theories. After which I'm going to propose who I think is scum and why.

[CFK]

Waiting for Kempo

[strife220]

Also waiting for Kempo

[thekempo]

lol, GTA4 arrived.

Strife has been more scummy over the course of the game, but he's making some good points about CFK which lead towards me thinking he may not be as innocent as I once thought. Especially as I know I'm town and he keeps attacking me.

I've not been saying much in day 4 because I want to hear what you two have to say. Like I mentioned earlier, what was once a pretty clear cut decision for me is now harder with strife replacing sockpuppet.

[CFK]

Especially as I know I'm town and he keeps attacking me.

That's a very poor argument, in my eyes you are scum and I'm being pro-active.

[CFK]

Also, I will be unavailable tommorow or sunday because I am camping.

[thekempo]

Especially as I know I'm town and he keeps attacking me.

That's a very poor argument, in my eyes you are scum and I'm being pro-active.

And in my eyes I'm town and you keep attacking me for dumb things I've explained plenty of times already.

[strife220]

Alright I have a few minutes to contribute, so I'll just put out my opinion. Based on my read-through, I think CFK is my best guess for the last scum. As a whole, it seems that Kempo's potentially scummy actions are more likely pro-town than CFKs. My reasoning should be fairly clear from previous posts, so I won't bother re-itterating. I'm not confident enough to vote, but I will FOS CFK to mark him as bz main suspect

[CFK]

Alright I have a few minutes to contribute, so I'll just put out my opinion. Based on my read-through, I think CFK is my best guess for the last scum. As a whole, it seems that Kempo's potentially scummy actions are more likely pro-town than CFKs. My reasoning should be fairly clear from previous posts, so I won't bother re-itterating. I'm not confident enough to vote, but I will FOS CFK to mark him as bz main suspect

I would like you to re-iterate, because I came up with a perfectly logical counter argument for every argument you made. if you can find something that reveals me as scum, I would like to see it, so I can explain why I wrote it. You have been constantly attcking me in a biased manner for a while now, so I am going to

FOS: Strife220

[thekempo]

Alright I have a few minutes to contribute, so I'll just put out my opinion. Based on my read-through, I think CFK is my best guess for the last scum. As a whole, it seems that Kempo's potentially scummy actions are more likely pro-town than CFKs. My reasoning should be fairly clear from previous posts, so I won't bother re-itterating. I'm not confident enough to vote, but I will FOS CFK to mark him as bz main suspect

I would like you to re-iterate, because I came up with a perfectly logical counter argument for every argument you made. if you can find something that reveals me as scum, I would like to see it, so I can explain why I wrote it.

I've said that many times, and answered many times, yet you still suspect me. So if we go by your way of thinking, when it comes down to you logically explaining everything, then we should just ignore what you're saying and continue plowing through the game, claiming the same already explained evidence as our reason for suspecting you.

Wow, that was a long sentence. What I basically mean is, why should we believe what you're saying, when you don't believe what I'm saying?

[strife220]

Checking in. CFK / I have no information that reveals you as scum. However, I have no information that proves Kempo is scum either. The game seems to make a bit more sense under the context that you are MFBs partner, but I have zero proof. When I have time to do more heavy content posts Ill try posting more information and pose more questions, but given the nature of the game, theres not a ton to go on for anything more than speculation

[Mr. Flay]

It would be great if this game could end before Memorial Day....