OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[Skygazer]

QUACK

[Skygazer]

>:)

[Enigma]

[ruru]

okay vulcan is town

[vulcan logician]

i guess i'm jsut confused why you're voting based on pressuring your townread instead of like using your vote to do like ... something useful from your pov given that you don't seem to have lost the townread

this cj mini-wagon is kinda icky tbh

Yeah, that's just the thing. On d1, my "townread" might very well be scum. One of the things I hate about d1 is how fucking confident people are in

information they don't have.

I THINK Ceej might be town, but I'm not very SURE of it. Pressuring him might produce information that makes me more certain one way or another.

You are right that the mini wagon is icky, not to mention a lost cause.

UNVOTE:

Since I'm not feeling the enigma wagon, I'll decide on a different vote after I'm finished with my ISOs.

[Skygazer]

Enigma's still ignoring me

[ruru]

I feel like it is either a decide to lynch me, or don't

Also I've only seen this from scum (sample size: 1), I don't agree either way, and I think it creates cognitive dissonance for no reason

It's worth pursuing other leads and if you're still the consensus scummiest player after that then like you're still getting lynched

[vulcan logician]

Town lean
...
Skygazer - I feel scum would not be this stubborn and push so hard on my wagon (a mislynch btw)

I disagree with the reasoning that scum wouldn't push hard on a wagon simply because it's a mislynch. Is that the only reason you lean town on Skygazer?

[Enigma]

@Enigma

Appreciate if you could remind me which ones I haven't touched on? Points that I've already addressed (but we continue to fundamentally disagree on) do count as responded to from my perspective as I have nothing new to add.

1) You can't just say something is more likely and not back it up. That's what you're doing. I know what game theory is and you haven't done any mathematical models to actually back up your claims. I would not be surprised in the slightest if there's no significant changes in probability based on two players having the same numbers.

2) You're not even doing anything with this vote that you supposedly still like. You're not pressuring BuJaber at all and instead throwing shade at other people.

Finally you're trying to dismiss my arguments rather than respond to them by calling me stubborn and saying I keep dismissing your points. I touched on (1) before and you never addressed it. I've read your other points and they aren't backed by logic at all, you just keep saying "lol game theory." And a wagon on page two is still a wagon and if you're stating that it was "semi-rvs" then it wasn't even entirely rvs anyways. So your point about it not mattering doesn't stand.

Ok I acknowledge this may not stand up to maths/economic professor scrutiny, and probably flawed the more I thought about it (considering my early skim read to try and choose a draft number), particularly considering I'm not lowest but here is what I was yapping on about.

1. I was too lazy to do my own calcs so I stole someone else's. This is what we can consider at the Lowest Unique Positive Integer Game. With Game Theory and Nash's equilibrium, the probability of someone else picking 6 is about 0.08 ish (Figure 1i for N=11 where we are N=11 town). https://arxiv.org/pdf/1001.1065.pdf
2. Here is a terrible assumption, scum are logically playing and cooperating with each other not to choose the same number. So assuming they all choose three random numbers between 1-14 non-repeating (assumption for the 14 - but the likelihood of doubling above say 10 is almost non-existant assuming rational play). The probability of them choosing 6 the same number as me is 0.21 (3/14).

[Enigma]

Enigma's still ignoring me

What did u say

[Enigma]

Enigma's still ignoring me

What did u say

I was too busy waiting to quack rather than write ... but you ruined it anyways.

[ruru]

@Enigma what's your math background?

[OkaPoka]

sorry whats the point of enigma doing all these calculations?

[Enigma]

@Enigma what's your math background?

Engineering, but its been nearly 10 years since I've tried to do maths so it's probably all wrong and quite flawed ... was my own little game for choosing a draft. Additional credentials are I watched the movie a Beautiful Mind (about the fellow Nash who's theory lets you solve this) last year.

[Enigma]

sorry whats the point of enigma doing all these calculations?

Sky training me and claiming I made up the numbers (well I did in a sense to reach the conclusion, but there was some mathematical attempt there...). Plus half my wagon's continued obsession still with my first post (where I put a vote on a "wagon" claiming probability), despite all my other lovely contributions to the game and attempts to quack page tops.

[OkaPoka]

okay my question is what are the odds that scum!bujaber picked 6 and what are the odds town!bujaber picked 6

[ruru]

What kind of engineering?

[OkaPoka]

@ruru what are the point of these questions?

[Enigma]

okay my question is what are the odds that scum!bujaber picked 6 and what are the odds town!bujaber picked 6

How the theory works (as I understand it) is that as town, you can't coordinate/communicate with each other and that your behaviour is influenced by how you think the others will act, and their behaviour is influenced by how they think you will act etc., i.e. game theory.

So from reading about 5% of the article, I understand their graph is saying the probability that someone else will pick 6 (assuming you are trying to pick the lowest number, not just a number high enough to get a draft) with N=11 blind players is 8% ish.

Its hard to guess odds for scum as they can coordinate with each other, so I did a primitive assumption as I explained earlier, but the % is higher.

Pls lets not continue with maths for evidence on who to actually lynch, because the above requires rational participants and we are not rational people here.

[Skygazer]

Oka what's the point of asking about the point of ruru's questions?

[Enigma]

Sky, what's the point of asking about the point of asking about the point of ruru's question?

[Enigma]

What kind of engineering?

Mech

[Skygazer]

Sky, what's the point of asking about the point of asking about the point of ruru's question?

It feels like he's throwing shade for the question tbh which I don't like but I'm also immensely happy that we got to go this deep with questions about questions

[OkaPoka]

because i dont see how one field of engineering is going to drastically change someone's ability to do statistics.

[ruru]

I actually find it a bit surprising that a MechE would ever have believed picking the same number as town is scum-indicative